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**BettorsChat** · 08-27-2003, 07:13 PM

Northcoast PowerSweep

4* Miss State
3* Rice
3* Wisky
2* Ohio State
2* Nebraska
2* Boston College

Underdog Play of the Week - Duke

**predator** · 08-27-2003, 07:29 PM

Looking For an Angle
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Kent State at AKRON (Thursday night)...Visitor has covered 5 straight between these two neighboring MAC rivals.

Miami-Florida vs. Louisiana Tech (at Shreveport on Thursday night)...Homecoming for M-F's transfer QB Brock Berlin, who is product of "QB factory" Evangel Christian in Shreveport. LT just 3-12 vs. spread last 15 on board! But Hurricanes figure to hold back some with upcoming Florida war on Sept. 6.

Utah State at UTAH (Thursday night)...Utah totally controlled play in pits in 23-3 win vs. rival Utah State LY, outrushing Aggies 282-9. Ute RB M. Johnson licking his chops after banging for 176 yds. in 30 totes in 20-pt. victory.

South Florida at ALABAMA...Favorable spot technically and psychologically for fast-rising South Florida. Bulls are profitable 13-3-1 vs. spread since moving up to Div. I-A in '00. And Bama could be somewhat distracted by big revenge game with Oklahoma in Tuscaloosa on deck.

Wake Forest at BOSTON COLLEGE...BC is solid 15-6 as home chalk since '98 (albeit just 3-3 LY).

Colorado vs. Colorado State (at Denver)...Uppity CU has seen chippy instate rival CSU capture 3 of past 4 SU in series, including hard-fought 19-14 upset at new Mile High year ago. Ram "D" did superb job limiting CU to just 1 offensive TD, as Buffs scored other TD on Jeremy Bloom 75-yd. punt return.

Missouri vs. Illinois (at St. Louis)...In his auspicious collegiate debut, Mizzou's gifted QB Brad Smith bedazzled Illinois defense, rushing for 138 yds. and passing for 152 in stunning 33-20 upset.on this field (Edward Jones Dome) year ago.

Central Michigan at MICHIGAN...After performing poorly as big home chalk for years, UM has reversed that trend lately, going 9-4 as DD chalk in Ann Arbor since '00. CMU only 5-10 as road dog over same time span (0-4 LY!).

Florida State at NORTH CAROLINA...Though FSU got revenge last year, insiders tell us prideful 'Noles still painfully recall 41-9 pasting in Chapel Hill two years ago. Curiously, Tar Heels only home dog cover in past 3 seasons came in that shocker (1-5 in role). FSU "investors" haven't fully recovered from LY's non-covering 26-pt. win, when 'Noles (31-pt. chalk) gave up spread-covering TD with only 40 secs. to go.

Mississippi at VANDERBILT...Though Ole Miss has dominated series over last decade (9-1 SU), Rebels won't take Vandy lightly after nearly blowing 38-17 3rd-Q advantage in eventual 45-38 win in Oxford LY. 'Dores were knocking on door but fumbled on Ole Miss 28-yd. line with 24 ticks remaining.

Wisconsin at WEST VIRGINIA...Big early-season revenge game for WV, which hasn't forgotten humbling, nationally-televised 34-17 defeat in Madison year ago. Mountaineers trailed 34-3 at intermission before scoring 14 unanswered points in 2nd H. Badgers scored 4 TDs in 9-minute

**predator** · 08-27-2003, 07:35 PM

WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER

SUMMARY OF NAA FOOTBALL PLAYS:
***BEST BETS
NORTHWESTERN over KANSAS* by 21
CLEMSON* over GEORGIA by 14

**PREFERRED
B.Y.U.* over Georgia Tech by 15 (Thursday)
Wisconsin over West Virginia* by 14
Miami O. over Iowa* by 1
Mississippi over Vanderbilt* by 26

SUMMARY OF NFL PRESEASON FOOTBALL PLAYS:
BEST BETS
****Cleveland* over Atlanta by 15
***San Francisco over San Diego* by 13

**PREFERRED
**Philadelphia* over NY Jets by 13
New Orleans* over Miami by 11

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS

CLEMSON* over GEORGIA by 14

Dawg backers may be trying to talk about the “National Championship” off of last season’s strong run in Athens, but the truth is that the chatter could end on this very day. First we must be honest about the 2002 Bulldogs and their #3 finish in the AP Poll. They were good, but not that good – how about a 5-0 record in games decided by six points or less? And they took advantage of a weakened S.E.C. East, which set them up to face average Arkansas for the conference title, and then the rights to face QB-less Florida State in the Sugar Bowl. So instead of that season being a launching pad for national honors it was more likely a mirage, and now there are genuine problems. Four key contributors left early for the NFL, with only three starters returning on offense, including a very green blocking corps that will not start an upperclassman. Now the defense has major matchup problems here because of attrition through graduation, suspensions and injuries in the back two lines (no returning LB starters, and five DB’s missing from the 2-deep chart for this game). That means trouble against ascending Tiger QB Charlie Whitehurst and a stellar corps of WR’s that can exploit that lack of experience, and Whitehurst should get plenty of time to operate behind a deep and veteran OL. Tigers actually had more first downs and total offense in a tough 31-28 loss at Athens LY, one of those many Bulldog close calls that could easily reverse this time around. CLEMSON 34-20.

***BEST BET
NORTHWESTERN over KANSAS* by 21

Mark Mangino may not have know just how bad things were in Lawrence when he took over the Kansas job, but his actions in year #2 are an indication – 13 of the 26 recruits that he signed were from the JUCO ranks, a sign that an immediate fix is badly needed. But that fix will be anything but immediate – only two of them were available for spring practice, which means a difficult transition of finding new starters during the August practice period. That will cause chemistry problems all the way around, especially where that science matters most – in the OL and the back two lines on defense. And this is after a season in which the defense performed at an absurd level, allowing every lined opponent to score at least 31 points, with half of the schedule reaching 45 or higher. While the new faces are learning the system and the subtleties of their teammates the Northwestern offense will be poised to exploit them fully, with QB Brett Basanez now fully healthy and an excellent compliment of skill people to work with, led by RB Jason Wright. Randy Walker finally has his first full roster of his own recruits, which also means the full offensive playbook is now at his disposal, and the new looks (much more motion before the snap than previous editions) will further confuse a defense that will takes weeks to develop any cohesion. Meanwhile a more aggressive 3-4 defense (vastly improved team speed), also allows the Wildcats to make the occasional stop this season. NORTHWESTERN 48-27.

**PREFERRED
B.Y.U.* over Georgia Tech by 15 (Thursday)

Off of the first losing season in 29 years there is a real sense of urgency to get on track for Gerry Crowton, and the pieces are in place. Now that Matt Berry has had the proper time to get a feel for his offensive schemes they should be closer to past standards on that side of the ball, but for once the real key for the Cougars comes on defense. Not only are 10 starters returning (including eight seniors), but with Bronco Mendenhall coming on board to add his designs it could be the best unit the program has ever produced. They get an opportunity to be dominant here against a Yellow Jacket squad that has precious little experience at the RB and WR spots because of graduation and academic difficulties, and disappointing QB A. J. Suggs is on the verge of losing his job, which is hardly the way to start a season. Cougars held a 19-14 lead in the fourth quarter on the road against the Yellow Jackets LY, and this time are positioned for a strong closeout to begin their turnaround season. BRIGHAM YOUNG 31-16.

Wisconsin over West Virginia* by 14

A classic case of two teams that we expect to head in opposite directions this season, and we will buy in early before the oddsmakers and betting public can catch up. The price is short here because their 2002 campaigns appeared to be even, but the talent is certainly not – let’s remember that the Badgers rolled to a 34-3 lead at halftime in Madison last season and just coasted home to that 34-17 finale. Now they have a veteran and talented cast of skill people (Lee Evans returns!) that can dominate a small an inexperienced Mountaineer defensive front (the DL has a combined total of four career starts), allowing a Barry Alvarez team to dictate their game tempo. That can also force the W.V.U. offense out of its preferred playing rhythm, and after a season in which they had a lot of favorable bounces (an amazing +19 in turnover ratio, never having a single game worse than a -1, and a 9-1 record when + in takeaways), they will show their true colors as things even out this autumn. WISCONSIN 34-20.

Miami O. over Iowa* by 1

Much like Georgia at the top of this page, 2003 could also be a year of “comeuppance” for Iowa as well. They way that they were shattered by U.S.C. in the Orange Bowl shed much light as to where they really belong in the national picture, and for the season they were -12 in first downs, which hardly equates to 11-2. They did have some strong veteran leadership that meant few mistakes, however, and a +15 turnover ratio keyed the campaign. But now that leadership is gone with the departure of Brad Banks and that brilliant OL (four starters gone, three drafted by the N.F.L., in addition to coach Joe Philbin). That makes for a rebuilding season in which they already start out over-rated, and QB Ben Roethlisberger and the RedHawks can take advantage. Having played at Ohio State, Michigan, Hawaii, North Carolina, L.S.U. and here in the past three seasons they will not be intimidated, and they stood toe to toe with Iowa in a 29-24 home defeat LY, in which they led 25-22 in first downs. MIAMI O. 27-26.

Mississippi over Vanderbilt* by 26

This has a chance to be a very special season for Eli Manning, with a deep and talented groups of RB’s and WR’s (Chris Collins and Bill Flowers combined for 108 catches LY), plus a veteran OL, giving him ample opportunity to be a legitimate Heisman contender. In fact, after this one is over, he could easily be the front-runner. Because while the Ole Miss offense should be in mid-season form from the start because of all of that experience, they now face a Vanderbilt defense that returns only two starters from LY, and will not have a senior in the huddle for the opening snap. And that is not the worst of it. The secondary that has to cope with Manning’s passes not only does not return a starter, but there is not a junior or senior in the current lineup. That inexperience will be exploited fully, and the confidence to dominate should certainly be there – Manning threw for 386 yards and two TD’s, without an interception in 41 attempts, in a 45 point outburst vs. a more veteran Vandy defense last season. OLE MISS 49-23.

NFL PRE-SEASON

****BEST BET
Cleveland* over Atlanta by 15 (Thursday)

The Cleveland defense was burned by the mobile QBs on Detroit last week, with secondary guys committing to chasing the quarterback before he had crossed the line of scrimmage. This created space for Lions’ QBs to find open receivers, and they did. But neither of the Atlanta QBs play their position on the move. Doug Johnson and Kurt Kittner are pocket passers, and even if Dan Reeves wants to roll ‘em out more frequently, doing it in the pre-season after Michael Vick was already injured on a rollout would be too risky. Kittner completed only 9 of 22 passes at Miami last week. He is young, inexperienced, and can’t be expected to suddenly throw for 65% overnight. A low completion percentage is not good for your offense OR your defense. Fewer caught balls extends the game and forces your defense to play more downs. There is a reason why Miami controlled clock 38-22 on Atlanta last week despite minus 1 rushing yard from Ricky Williams. Kittner is an INT or an incompletion waiting to happen. William Green, Cleveland’s ball-control RB, did not play last week when the Browns lost. He is not hurt. It was a death-in-the-family matter. If he gets only 8 to 10 carries in this game, it figures to make a positive difference for the Browns. Dan Reeves went into this pre-season on an 11-2 ATS run, but is now 0-3 ATS in 2003. Tides turn, baby. CLEVELAND, 25-10.

***BEST BET
San Francisco over San Diego* by 13 (Friday)

After covering only by the skin of his teeth last Saturday night, San Diego’s Marty Coachenheimer is still only 4-15 ATS in the pre-season in his last five-and-change years as an NFL head coach. After covering by 12 points last week, Dennis Erickson is 3-0 SU and ATS with the 49ers this August, and 14-7 ATS (67%) in the pre-season in his NFL head coaching career. Although point-spread trends aren’t the ultimate in decision-making factors, they provide a solid foundation for what’s left of this analysis. Erickson’s #1 QB, Jeff Garcia, saw his first action of the pre-season last week. He figures to be allowed to do more this week. Despite being saddled with inexperienced QBs behind Garcia, the 49ers had won and covered without him using Rattay, Dorsey and Doman. Erickson wants the San Francisco offense to attack via more downfield throws this season, and that type of approach in a pre-season game vs. a defensive unit that lost lots of experience in the off-season would figure to move chains and score points. San Diego’s normal philosophy is to run LaDanian Tomlinson to eat clock, and establish field position to shorten games. But with Tomlinson exposed much less than usual, and the defense still feeling its way, the Chargers’ M.O. is messed up for the moment. The Erickson approach ain’t gonna work in the long run, but now is now. SAN FRANCISCO, 28-15.

**PREFERRED
Philadelphia* over NY Jets by 13 (Thursday)

Vinny! The guy gets his own comedy series back now that the Golden Penningtonian is hurt! It’ll be a laugh riot for the next 13 weeks! If you have a satellite dish, tune into this game and watch for the ol’ no-look pirouette pass in the flat that gets picked off by a defensive lineman and run back the other way for a TD, with Testaverde’s arms and legs flailing away in sad pursuit. That play, or a variation that comes after a Vinny fumble, has been a staple of Jetsons’ offense for eight years. Since Philly enjoys playing the kind of defense that pressures QBs (doesn’t everyone nowadays?) the chance of that play surfacing increases. Vinny the Stiff, who hasn’t seen much live action since being covered with a white sheet in September 2002, may have to be kept revived a lot longer than normal in this game since Jets’ rookie QB Brooks Bollinger was also hurt in the Giants game last week. Marquel Blackwell, only 5’11” and fresh out of U. South Florida, who looked okay against Giants defensive nobodies, would be the relief thrower against better defensive personnel this time around. PHILADELPHIA, 22-9.

New Orleans* over Miami by 11 (Thursday)

Nobody who plays on natural grass wants to play on artificial turf in the pre-season, so Miami may suffer from a lack of effort on the part of its RBs and DBs, protecting themselves from the jar of the surface. Off an 0-2 SU and ATS win and cover vs. offensively-challenged Atlanta, there is no urgency for the injury-bitten Dolphins to perform. Last week’s win was aided by penalty ratios of 1-2 in frequency and 1-3 in yardage, against Atlanta QBs who threw for low percentages and tossed two INTs, so it wasn’t much of a win. Speed wins on turf, and the Dolphins don’t match up offensively in that department. New Orleans’ head coach Jim Haslett is complaining about poor about defensive pass coverage to date, but he was facing some good passing offenses. Miami’s is kind of blah by comparison. Meanwhile, the Saints settled for FGs last week after moving the ball nicely. Aaron Brooks seems to be in a gradual up-curve in his return from shoulder surgery. And, in the loss at San Francisco, New Orleans was hit with twice as many penalties as the home-side 49ers, something that certainly contributes to stalled drives. NEW ORLEANS, 24-13.

THE RED SHEET FROM POINTWISE
THE RED SHEET FROM POINTWISE

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:
*89 WISCONSIN
*89 DUKE
*88 MIAMI OF OHIO
*88 AUBURN
*88 FRESNO STATE
*88 RICE
*87 Penn State, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Florida State, Texas Tech

DETAILED ANALYSIS ON TOP PLAYS

Wisconsin 33 - WEST VIRGINIA 20 - (12 Noon EDT) -- Line opened at Wisconsin minus 2½, and is now minus 3. We originally wanted nothing to do with this one, in light of the fact that the pup as been golden when the Badgers take the field, covering to the tune of 29-12 lately. Not only that, but the Mountaineers have the revenge edge, after last year's debacle. However, respected sources say that the depletion of Rodriguez troops is just too much to overcome, regardless the incentive. As we noted earlier in our Wise Points section on Pointwise, Wisky dominated a year ago, & should duplicate that showing especially with its veteran offensive line, vs WV's totally green defensive line. While the Mounties have said goodbye to their star RB Cobourne, look for Badger RB Davis to do his thing. Lay it!
RATING: WISCONSIN 89

VIRGINIA 30 - Duke 23- (7:00) -- Line opened at Virginia minus 16½, and is now minus 16. Sure, backing the Devils is a bit frightening, as they've been among the dregs for so long. They are currently on a 3-33 SU run, while the Cavs are in off yet another winning season, culminated by a romping bowl win, covering by 31 pts. However, despite another 10 setbacks in '02, the Imps weren't their usual doormat selves, as they covered 8-of-12, with 5 of their straightup losses coming by 5 pts or less, including a 27-22 loss to the Cavs. In that one, Duke held a 158-2 RY edge, & returns all 11 offensive starters, along with 9 on defense. Virginia has the brilliance of QB Schaub, along with 14 other starters, but also has South Carolina on deck, & the slightest "look-ahead" only serves to tighten this one all the more.
RATING: DUKE 89

**wayne1218** · 08-31-2003, 04:09 PM

Jim it looks like the Gold Sheet has Kentucky here.

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