Monday Trends and Indexes 04/16

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Monday, April 16

Good Luck on day #106 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Monday, April 16

Celtics lost last seven games, covering one of last four; Sunday they lost by hoop in Orlando, as Magic clinched a playoff spot. Four of their last five games went over the total, but 13 of last 18 Heat games stayed under. Miami beat Celtics 88-85 April 6 in Boston (-8); Heat won five of last seven games (0-7 vs spread)

Knicks lost by hoop in Toronto last night, their fourth loss in a row and eighth in last nine tries. New Jersey is 6-2 in last eight games; they beat Knicks 100-86 at home Friday night (-9); six of Nets' last eight games stayed under total. Sorry Knicks are 2-8 in their last ten home games.

Milwaukee as a favorite? Not until next season. Bucks are 2-13 in last fifteen games after losing by 21 at home to Charlotte in last game; six of their last nine games went over total. Atlanta beat Bucks 115-102 at home ten days ago (-3.5); they're 2-8 in last ten games, losing by 34 at Cleveland Saturday.

Memphis ended six-game skid by beating Denver 133-118 last game, but they're 2-10 vs spread in game after their last twelve wins; five of their last seven games went over the total. Spurs lostafternoon game in Dallas yesterday, with Duncan getting tossed in third quarter; they're prepping for playoffs.

Phoenix, Houston are both getting ready for playoffs; Suns are 8-1 in last nine games, winning last five by 8,8,18,8,28 pts- they beat Rockets 103-82 in last meeting March 12 (-6). Houston has won last four games, by 6,5,4,11 points; Saturday's win against Hornets ended three-game home losing streak.

Utah is 2-17 against spread in last nineteen games, losing six of last eight games; their last six games went over the total, as did last four Portland games. Jazz is 1-1 vs Blazers this season, with home side winning both tilts. Portland is 5-0 vs spread in game following its last five wins.

Nuggets gave up 133 points in Memphis Saturday, losing for first time in nine games, with their last four all going over total. Denver lost 99-94 at Minnesota in the last meeting, Feb 14 (+4). Wolves lost last four games, by 2,11,17,19 points; over is 7-0 in their last seven games.

Hornets lost last two games, allowing 115 ppg; over is 11-3-1 in their last fifteen games- they beat Sacramento 110-93 Feb 14th in teams' last meeting. Kings beat Clippers Sunday at Staples, a damaging loss for LA; Sacramento lost seven of their last nine home games.

[pm530]

Baseball – Write up

MLB
Write-up


Monday, April 16

Hot Pitchers
-- James is 2-0, 0.82 in his first two '07 starts.
-- Mets scored 21 runs in winning first two Maine starts (1.54).
-- Florida is 8-2 in last ten Sanchez starts.
-- Snell is 0-1, 2.07 in his first two '07 starts.
-- Francis is 1-0, 2.84 in his first two '07 starts.
-- EdGonzalez is 3-0, 2.77 in his last four starts. Penny is 2-0, 0.68 in his first two starts this season.

-- Beckett is 2-0, 1.50 in his first two '07 starts.
-- Greinke is 1-1, 2.07 in his first two '07 starts. Verlander has an 0.69 RA in his first two '07 starts, but no wins.
-- Loewen is 1-0, 1.80 in his first two '07 starts. Devil Rays won both Shields starts, both by 6-5 scores.


Cold Pitchers
-- Chico is 0-1, 10.38 in his first two starts.
-- Garcia makes first start for Phillies; he was 4-0, 1.50 in last four '06 starts.
-- Milton is 0-3, 6.55 in his last five starts. Capuano has 9.58 RA in his last four starts.
-- Hensley is 0-2, 11.00 in his first two '07 starts. Marquis is 0-6, 6.21 in his last seven starts.
-- Rodriguez is 0-4, 6.15 in his last five starts.
-- Cardinals are 1-5 in last six Reyes starts.
-- Zito is 0-2, 9.00 in his first two starts for the Giants.
-- Wolf is 2-1, 6.00 in his last six starts.

-- ESantana is 1-6, 7.96 in his last eight road starts.

Totals
-- Under is 5-1 in last six Washington games.
-- Under is 8-3 in Met games this season.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in Cincinnati games this season.
-- Over is 7-3 in Florida games this season.
-- Under is 6-2-2 in Pittsburgh games this season, 8-2 in Cardinal games.
-- Over is 8-2 in last ten Francis starts.
-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Arizona games.

-- Seven of ten Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 9-2-1 in Tampa Bay games this season, but the under is 5-1-1 in last seven Baltimore games.


Hot Teams
-- Braves won four of their last six games.
-- Mets are 7-4 so far this season.
-- Brewers, Reds both won three of their last four games.
-- Astros are 4-0 on road, 1-5 at home.
-- Padres won five of their last eight games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games.
-- Dodgers won eight of last ten games. Arizona won seven of its last nine games.


-- Red Sox won four of their last five games.
-- Tigers won six of their last nine games.
-- Devil Rays won last two games, after losing six of its previous seven games. Orioles won last three games, outscorig foes 16-6.


Cold Teams
-- Nationals have been outscored 66-31 in losing nine of 12.
-- Phillies lost eight of their first eleven games.
-- Marlins lost three of their last four games.
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- Pirates lost four in row, six of last seven games, scoring total of nine runs in last four games.
-- Giants lost seven of their last ten games. Colorado lost six of last eight games.

-- Angels lost five of their last six games.
-- Royals lost nine of their last eleven games.

Q Starts
Q Starts are when pitcher goes up against same team twice in a short period of time. We believe this helps the over.
Monday: Braves-Nationals
Season record: 4-4, minus 40

[pm530]

Hockey – Write up

NHL
Write-up


Sunday, April 15

Tampa Bay scored one goal in all six periods of first two games, earning Swamp aplit; under is now 5-1 in Lightning-Devil tilts this season. Jersey is 4-8 on power play in series, Tampa is 1-9, so Lightning has outscored Devils 6-3 while at even strength. Devils outshot Tampa 29-11 in last two periods of Game 2.

Islanders oput 16 shots on goal in first period of Game 2, after being outshot 11-1 in first period of series; DiPietro stopped 32 shots as Isles head home 1-1. Sabres split pair on island, losing 5-3, winning 3-0. Buffalo has had at least 10 shots on goal in all six periods of series, but Isles also had 30+ shots in Game 2.

San Jose outshot Predators 26-11 in first period of the games in Nashville, but Preds have 23-8 edge in third period. Teams split pair of games in Shark Tank this season (3-1 SJ/4-3 Nash SO); teams are combined 2-25 on power play in series. Sharks had a huge 41-18 edge in faceoffs won in Game 2.

[pm530]

Arena Football League – Write up

AFL
Write-up


Monday, April 16

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Dallas is 6-0, Philly 4-1, so this is early battle of heavyweights in AFL. Dallas is 3-0 at home, winning 59-40/68-64/53-51. Soul lost for first time last week, 57-49 to Georgia; they've an underdog for first time this year, and are 3-0 SU on road, winning at New York, Nashville, Grand Rapids. Over is 4-1 in last five Dallas games, 3-1 in last four Philly contests

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[pm530]

Six-Pack for Monday

-- Only once in last 12 days has full schedule of that day's baseball games been played as scheduled. Awful weather

-- Final round of PGA Tour event at Hilton Head is going to be played Monday. High winds cancelled Sunday's round.

-- Has anyone else noticed how well the 76ers are playing since they traded Allen Iverson? They're 23-17. Not bad.

-- Vancouver is now 19-3 in overtime games this season; both their playoff wins have come in extra time.

-- All seven Anaheim-Minnesota games this season have been decided by a single goal.

-- When NASCAR drivers spend all day Sunday going at speeds of 150 mph or so, do they have trouble when they have to drive normal speeds at home?

[pm530]

Monday's list of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.........

13) Around 7pm Sunday, it was like a Twilight Zone episode; while the A's don't pinch-hit for Marco Scutaro (batting .050) with the game on the line vs Mariano Rivera, there are plows going down my street, clearing the slush away. Apparently, the guys driving the plows needed some overtime pay, since slush doesn't need to be plowed.

12) Did I mention that today was April 15? We're supposed to be sweating getting tax returns in, not a winter storm.

11) Someone needs to make a shish-ke-bob out of the ground hog, thats for sure. Six more weeks of winter, my butt.......

10) I disgustedly turned off my computer before Scutaro came to the plate, IMing my buddy before I signed off,
"Why the hell are they going to let Scutaro bat?"

9) Anyway, Scutaro, batting .050 at the time, makes a genius out of manager Bob Geren by drilling a game-winning homer off of Rivera, almost as surreal a sight as slush on April 15. More welcome than slush, and almost as bizarre.

8) Rich Harden left Sunday's game with tightness in shoulder; if it is serious, the A's are cooked. Scutaro or no Scutaro.

7) Denver Broncos have no road games this October; they're at Indianapolis September 30, host the Chargers October 7, a week before their bye, then host the Steelers, Packers before visiting Detroit on November 4. Six of their last nine games are on the road, however.

6) Toronto Raptors are another NBA team thats fun to watch play; they're in the Suns' mold, which is no coincidence, since Brian Colangelo now runs the Toronto franchise.

5) This is the first time ever that Raptors made the playoffs in a season where the Maple Leafs missed the playoffs. Would most Toronto fans reverse that, if they could?

4) Raptor coach Sam Mitchell was once in the military, where he was a trained Combat Armed Engineer, meaning his job was to clear minefields. After that, coaching in the NBA is a day in the park.

3) Ian Kinsler has six home runs. Who, you say? Kinsler is a second baseman for the Rangers, and his bat is on fire.

2) Not only is Barry Zito off to 0-2, 9.00 start with Giants, he isn't getting much luck; after getting rained out of two starts in Pittsburgh against the Pirates, he now makes start #3 in a horrible place to end a pitching slump, Coors Field in Denver.

1) Seven of the Patriots' nine home games last season had a warmer gametime temperature than Angels-Red Sox Saturday

[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Tips and Trends

NBA
Tips and trends


Monday, April 16

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New Jersey Nets at New York Knicks (7:30 PM ET)
The Nets will be trying to beat the Knicks for the second time in four days and improve their playoff seeding following Washington's loss on Sunday. They clinched a playoff spot by beating New York on Friday and are just one game behind the Wizards for the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. BIG EDGE: NETS
New Jersey swingman Vince Carter is averaging 32.6 points over the last five games following a 35-point effort at Indiana on Sunday. EDGE: NETS
New Jersey is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings with New York.


Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets (8:30 PM ET)
Phoenix clinched home-court advantage vs. San Antonio if the two meet in the second round of the playoffs when the Spurs lost at Dallas on Sunday. SLIGHT EDGE: ROCKETS
The Rockets own a 2-game lead on Utah for the fourth seed in the Western Conference and can clinch home-court in their first-round series with a victory. EDGE: ROCKETS
The Suns are 6-0 SU & ATS against the Rockets the last two years, winning by an average of 17 points per game and covering by an average of 13 points.
Phoenix is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games.


Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (9 PM ET)
Denver will try to match its season-high four-game home-winning streak set November 18-26 and go for their seventh win in eight games at the Pepsi Center. EDGE: NUGGETS
The Timberwolves are a dismal 12-28 on the road, but posted a 112-109 win in Denver on November 3rd. Minnesota is 2-1 versus the Nuggets this season. SLIGHT EDGE: T-WOLVES

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[pm530]

Baseball - Tips & Trends

MLB
Tips and Trends


Monday, April 16

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Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox (1:05 PM ET)
Boston has dominated the first two games of the series, outscoring Los Angeles 18-1 while outhitting them 22-10. BIG EDGE: RED SOX
Los Angeles starter Ervin Santana gave up six runs and seven hits in 4 1/3 innings of the Angels' 7-6 loss to Cleveland at Milwaukee's Miller Park on Tuesday. He is 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA in two starts against Boston. EDGE: RED SOX
Angels star Vladimir Guerrero went 0-for-4 on Saturday after going 5-for-10 with two RBIs in his previous three games. Guerrero is 4-for-20 with one home run, two RBIs and seven strikeouts against Beckett. EDGE: RED SOX


New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (ESPN | 7:05 PM ET)
Off to their worst start in 10 years, the Phillies will turn to a pitcher making his season-debut. Right-hander Freddy Garcia started the season on the 15-day disabled list with right bicep tendinitis. EDGE: METS
Poor starting pitching has been a major reason for Philadelphia's struggles. The team's starters have surrendered at least five runs five times, with the Phillies going 1-4 in those games. The rotation has an ERA of 5.94. EDGE: METS & OVER
New York starter John Maine struggled against Philadelphia in his first start against them this season, walking a career-high six and giving up two runs and five hits before exiting after 4 2/3 innings. EDGE: PHILLIES


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[pm530]

Hockey – Tips & Trends

NHL
Tips and trends


Monday, April 16

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New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning (7 PM ET)
New Jersey goaltender Martin Brodeur had a .922 save percentage during the regular season, but it's at .870 through two games of this series. EDGE: LIGHTNING & OVER
Brodeur has a 3.03 GAA in this series. He has had a GAA above 2.25 just twice in 11 previous trips to the playoffs as New Jersey's No. 1 goalie. EDGE: DEVILS
While the Devils' 24 road wins this season were the third-most in the NHL, Tampa Bay's 18 regulation losses at home were easily the most among teams that made the postseason. BIG EDGE: DEVILS


Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks (10 PM ET)
The Predators will be without one of the best young players in the NHL in this one, as Alexander Radulov is serving a one-game supension for checking Steve Bernier from behind. EDGE: SHARKS
San Jose returns to HP Pavilion where it was 7-0-1 in its final eight home games and 25-12-4 overall this season. BIG EDGE: SHARKS
Nashville was one of the best road teams in the NHL this season with a 23-15-3 record. EDGE: PREDATORS

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet


Monday, April 16

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 1) at DALLAS (6 - 0) - 4/16/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[pm530]

Baseball - Short Sheet (Early Game)

MLB
Short Sheet


Monday, April 16

American League

Patriot’s Day game
(TC) LA Angels at Boston, 10:05am EST
Ervin Santana (R) vs. Josh Beckett (R)
Santana: Angels 34-15 SU off 4+ road games
Beckett: Boston 16-5 Under after allowing 1 or 0 runs

[pm530]

Note: Date on post 4 should be: Monday, April 16 (sorry!)

[pm530]

MLB
Streaking Pitchers


Monday, April 16

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HOT

Brad Penny (Los Angeles Dodgers) - Penny has posted a 2-0 record with a 0.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season while allowing just one run. The Dodgers aren't backing the right-hander with much offensive support, however, with just five runs through Penny’s two outings. Not surprisingly, both games played under the posted total. Penny has a 2-3 record versus the Arizona Diamondbacks as a Dodger but has not allowed more than four runs in any start.


Chuck James (Atlanta Braves) - James looks to win his first three starts for the second consecutive campaign against the Washington Nationals. The left-hander enters this contest with a spectacular 2-0 record with a 0.82 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. James is coming off a dominating performance against the Nationals in which he pitched five scoreless innings. The Braves are 7-2 in James’s last nine starts with four days rest.


Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox) - Beckett has received generous run support in two starts this season with the BoSox hitting the over both times. Boston has totaled 21 runs and 22 hits when Beckett has taken the mound and the Sox have also scored a combined 18 runs in the first two games of their current series with the Los Angeles Angels.The Red Sox are 4-1 in Beckett's last five starts dating back to last season. Oddsmakers have Boston listed as a -178 favorite with the total set at 9.


COLD

Clay Hensley (San Diego Padres) - Hensley has allowed 11 runs in two games against the San Francisco Giants, which gives the right-hander a 0-2 record with a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP to start the season. Henley pitched his only career complete game against the Chicago Cubs last season, limiting the Cubs to two hits and a walk, while striking out two and throwing just 92 pitches. However, he is dealing with a blister on his middle finger that developed in his season debut, which is undoubtedly affecting his performance.


Matt Chico (Washington Nationals) - This rookie left-hander will be in tough against the NL East leading Atlanta Braves today. Chico made his second career start against the Braves in an 8-0 loss Tuesday, allowing four runs - one earned - and six hits in 4 2/3 innings. His first career start was a no-decision against the Florida Marlins, in which he allowed six earned runs on eight hits in four innings. Chico is now 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.96 WHIP. To make matters worse, the Nationals are one of the most futile offensive teams in baseball batting .231 with 31 runs on 92 hits.

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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel


Florida at Houston
A game after scoring a season-high 11 runs, the Marlins were shut down by Atlanta's Tim Hudson in an 8-4 loss yesterday. But Florida should like Houston's pitching much better based on the fact that Astro pitchers have given up 14 runs and 25 hits over their last two games. Houston starter Wandy Rodriguez picked up a loss in his first outing of the season, although he did not pitch badly against the Cardinals. But he has a 6.17 ERA in four career appearances against the Marlins. With Miguel Cabrera continuing to swing a hot stick (.410 average and NL-leading 13 RBI), the Marlins look like a good underdog pick (+120) in this one according to Dunkel, which has Florida favored straight up by 2 1/2 runs. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, APRIL 16

Game 951-952: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (James) 18.964; Washington (Williams) 12.542
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-210); Under

Game 953-954: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 17.798; Philadelphia (Garcia) 15.498
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Capuano) 17.483; Cincinnati (Milton) 15.519
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Under

Game 957-958: Florida at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 16.854; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.240
Dunkel Line: Florida by 2 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); Over

Game 959-960: San Diego at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Hensley) 13.850; Chicago Cubs (Marquis) 13.539
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); N/A

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 14.795; St. Louis (Reyes) 15.520
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Over

Game 963-964: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 17.362; Colorado (Francis) 17.836
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-135); Over

Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Penny) 19.670; Arizona (Gonzalez) 17.103
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-120); Under

Game 967-968: LA Angels at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 16.003; Boston (Beckett) 17.918
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-195); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-195); Under

Game 969-970: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 14.928; Detroit (Verlander) 16.212
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Over

Game 971-972: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Loewen) 16.686; Tampa Bay (Shields) 16.547
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over