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Dayton at SLU, Rutgers at Princeton, & USF at Pacific - Game Write-Ups
Season Record: 10-7 +3.3 UNITS
Three plays today.
Dayton at St. Louis (+1.5) - 11:10am Pacific
This is a big game for first year coach Brad Soderberg and the Billikens. Soderberg served as interim head coach at Wisconsin when Dick Bennett retired midseason. He was looked over as head coach by the Badgers at the end of the year but was an assistant here last year and takes over this year with Lorenzo Romar departed to Washington. His style may not be pretty but he can flat out coach. He inherits a team loaded with experience. Four starters are back from last season, and the eight man rotation includes 4 seniors & 3 juniors.
It all starts with point guard Marque Perry who was only fully healthy in about half the teams games last season. A concussion problem slowed him all season. Perry is 1st-team C-USA material and should have a great senior season. He leads the team with 15.0ppg. Five players average between 5 and 9 points per game led by senior F/C Kenny Brown (9.0ppg), junior G/F Chris Sloan (8.6ppg), and junior guard Josh Fisher (8.4ppg). Senior F/C Chris Braun, senior guard Drew Deiner, junior forward Ross Varner and good looking freshman guard Anthony Drejaj (late signee) round out the rotation. This is primarily the same team who finished 9-7 in C-USA games last season, including 6 of 7 to end the regular season, and 6 of 8 at home.
The Billikens got off to a rocky start this year losing to UT-Martin by 5 and to SWMS in OT but bounced back with a high quality road win at St. Bonaventure (held Bonnies to season low 54 points). They were blown out as expected at #1 Arizona in following game but looked sharp in 15 point win over TX Pan-American in most recent game last week. They held TPA to just 25% shooting for the game. Holding St Bonnie to 54 points and TPA to just 25% shooting are strong signals that the tough defense Soderberg taught with Bennett at Wisconsin is being carried over here.
Dayton comes in with a 4-1 record that includes a 6 point win over Cincinnati. However, the Flyers have played four of five at home and were beaten soundly by 14 points in their only road game of the season at Miami, Ohio. The Flyers lost standout point guard David Morris (6.0 assists per game last year) to graduation. This year head coach Oliver Purnell has made a controversial decision to move last years leading scorer Ramod Marshall from shooting guard to point guard and last years back-up point guard Mark Jones to shooting guard. Both players have a lot of adjusting to do. Marshall is not a true point guard and Hall certainly is not a consistent scorer. The loss of Morris will be most felt in road games. This is just not a fluid offensive team right now. Following Miami Ohio loss, the Flyers scored only 59 points in an unimpressive win over UNC-Wilmington (3-3, has not looked good early on) in last game. I fully expect them to struggle offensively again on the road here against a strong SLU defense. First game in 7 days following finals week and early afternoon start time will not help them.
The Billikens are 46-13 (.780) against non-conference opponents at the Savvis Center and 111-34 (.766) in their last 145 home games overall. In meeting last year in Dayton, the Flyers won by just 6 points. I believe SLU has gained slightly in terms of returning talent. Revenge and exchange of home courts should be plenty to turn the tables this year.
St. Louis 1 UNIT
Rutgers (-1.5) at Princeton - 4:30pm Pacific
Fairly high on this Rutgers team. They return four starters from an 18-13 season of a year ago. Head coach Gary Waters is in his second season here and the team has looked good early on.
Few teams have a a trio of starting guards as talented as senior Jerome Coleman (21.8ppg, 2.3spg), junior Mike Sherrod (5.5ppg, 5.2rpg, 4.5apg, 2.2spg), and sophomore Ricky Shields (13.0ppg, 4.3rpg, 1.8spg). If you were keeping count these three average 5.3 steals a game between them! Senior center Kareem Wright lost a whopping 50 pounds in the offseason and has been much more active this year. Junior forward Herve Lamizana is a budding star (8.2ppg, 5.3rpg, 4.0 blocks, 20 points vs North Carolina). Rutgers has some active players off the bench including forward Sean Axani who was a starter last year.
The Scarlet Knights were incredibly close from upsetting the Tar Heels in North Carolina and advancing to the semifinals of the preseason NIT. Rutgers led by 11 with under 8 minutes to play but got some unfavorable calls and folded down the stretch losing by 4 points. They built a double digit lead in their next game at Temple as well, and this time held on for a 6 point win. They also played decent in a loss at Auburn this year so they have quality road game experience. At home Rutgers has been sensational in blow out wins over Marshall, Columbia, and most recently Fordham.
Princeton is clearly down this year. The Tigers inexcusably lost to a bad Florida International team at home three games back. In their next game they needed a 65 foot buzzer beater to beat a 1-4 Monmouth team. They beat a winless Lafayette team in most recent game. The Tigers have suffered some major attrition. They lost leading scorer Mike Bechtold as well as minute per game leader Ahmed El-Nokali to graduation. So three starters return, right? Wrong. Returning starting forward Dominick Martin opted to transfer out of the program, reserve forward Chris Klug quit the team, and key returnee F/C Konrad Wysocki (conference rookie of the year 2 years ago, played starters minutes last year) has not played a game yet this season due to a foot injury. The worst news came just recently that starting forward Andre Logan (second on team in scoring last year and this year) will miss the remainder of the year as he has not fully recovered from offseason knee surgery. Logan had averaged 32.3 minutes per game (team high) in first three games of the season. He will be sorely missed. This leaves Princeton with just one active starter from last years 16-12 team who trailed by 17 in the 2nd half before losing by 12 at Rutgers.
Princeton is said to have "sped up the offense" as they scored a season high 89 points in last game vs Lafayette. This would play right into the hands of Rutgers who will want nothing more than to play an uptempo game. Scarlet Knights love to harass with full court pressure and create turnovers. They do it very well (forcing 21 per game). Either way, they have too much talent, athleticism, and depth for Princeton to match up with. New Jersey locals report that Rutgers always brings a large contingent of fans for this game (almost making it a 50/50 crowd) which lessens the home court advantage significantly.
Rutgers 1 UNIT
San Francisco (+3.5) at Pacific - 7:35pm Pacific
The Dons have started the season 1-5, but three of the games could have easily been wins. They lost on a 30-foot buzzer beater to Nevada, lost by 5 at Sacramento State (Big Sky, undefeated at home this year), and most recently by just 3 to Fresno State in which they had a chance to take the lead and following free throws a chance to tie in the final seconds but could not convert either opportunity.
USF easily played their best basketball of the season vs Fresno and have had a week break prior to what they are calling the start of a "new season" today. The Dons welcome two key transfers into action for the first time today. Junior James Bayless (formerly at Nevada, career high of 24) and sophomore Alvin Broussard (formerly at New Mexico, 34 games, 3 starts as a freshman) are both slated to start today and instantly make this a better team. Head coach Phil Matthews on the two well regarded transfers, "They can play." Bayless (6-7, 235) gives USF an additional inside presence they badly needed and Broussard (6-6, 195) is said to be the most athletic player on the team.
The two newcomers should free up star senior forward Darrell Tucker (20.0ppg, 8.5rpg) to do even more damage on opponents. Tucker will easily be the best player on the court tonight. Junior guard Jovan Harris, a St. Mary's transfer who averaged 15.1ppg as a sophomore starts at two guard with steady sophomore Jason Gaines (leads conference in assist to turnover ratio 3.33:1) starting at point guard. Wings Shamell Stallworth, a senior, and John Cox (cousin of Kobe Bryant), a junior will come off the bench quickly. They both averaged double figures last season as starters and are 2nd & 3rd in minutes played per game this season. Two JC transfer forwards, Brandon Queen & Mamdou Cissi started all 6 games this season and will provide solid depth on the front-line in the new look lineup. With the added depth, USF will finally get to press more and get into an up and down game that they prefer.
Pacific has not shown much life at all this season. They are 1-4 with their only win coming by 4 points in OT vs Lamar (Southland conference, 211 RPI last year). The Tigers lost 4 starters and a reserve that accounted for 76% of the teams scoring from last years team. 5-10 senior guard Demetrius Jackson (17.6ppg in 5 games) is the only bright spot on this team. As a whole they are shooting just .362 from the field. Sophomore guard Jasko Korajkic who big things were expected of was sidelined with an injury to start the season and has only seen limited minutes in last two games. Pacific started the season with a 6 point home loss to a bad Santa Clara team and following Lamar win has not been competitive in their last three road games. They lost by 29 at Nevada, and by 20 at Fresno State, two teams that USF went down to the buzzer with. Granted, USF had both teams at home but the final score discrepancies are still glaring. Pacific is a very inexperienced team who is coming off three 20+ blowout losses in a row and is sure to be lacking confidence. They are not a team who should be giving points to anyone right now and certainly not to a dangerous USF team hungry for a big win.
San Francisco 1 UNIT
Good luck,
Edward
Right Angle Sports
http://www.Handicapper.net - Providing NCAA Handicapping Information, Picks, Insight, & Analysis since 1996.
Three plays today.
Dayton at St. Louis (+1.5) - 11:10am Pacific
This is a big game for first year coach Brad Soderberg and the Billikens. Soderberg served as interim head coach at Wisconsin when Dick Bennett retired midseason. He was looked over as head coach by the Badgers at the end of the year but was an assistant here last year and takes over this year with Lorenzo Romar departed to Washington. His style may not be pretty but he can flat out coach. He inherits a team loaded with experience. Four starters are back from last season, and the eight man rotation includes 4 seniors & 3 juniors.
It all starts with point guard Marque Perry who was only fully healthy in about half the teams games last season. A concussion problem slowed him all season. Perry is 1st-team C-USA material and should have a great senior season. He leads the team with 15.0ppg. Five players average between 5 and 9 points per game led by senior F/C Kenny Brown (9.0ppg), junior G/F Chris Sloan (8.6ppg), and junior guard Josh Fisher (8.4ppg). Senior F/C Chris Braun, senior guard Drew Deiner, junior forward Ross Varner and good looking freshman guard Anthony Drejaj (late signee) round out the rotation. This is primarily the same team who finished 9-7 in C-USA games last season, including 6 of 7 to end the regular season, and 6 of 8 at home.
The Billikens got off to a rocky start this year losing to UT-Martin by 5 and to SWMS in OT but bounced back with a high quality road win at St. Bonaventure (held Bonnies to season low 54 points). They were blown out as expected at #1 Arizona in following game but looked sharp in 15 point win over TX Pan-American in most recent game last week. They held TPA to just 25% shooting for the game. Holding St Bonnie to 54 points and TPA to just 25% shooting are strong signals that the tough defense Soderberg taught with Bennett at Wisconsin is being carried over here.
Dayton comes in with a 4-1 record that includes a 6 point win over Cincinnati. However, the Flyers have played four of five at home and were beaten soundly by 14 points in their only road game of the season at Miami, Ohio. The Flyers lost standout point guard David Morris (6.0 assists per game last year) to graduation. This year head coach Oliver Purnell has made a controversial decision to move last years leading scorer Ramod Marshall from shooting guard to point guard and last years back-up point guard Mark Jones to shooting guard. Both players have a lot of adjusting to do. Marshall is not a true point guard and Hall certainly is not a consistent scorer. The loss of Morris will be most felt in road games. This is just not a fluid offensive team right now. Following Miami Ohio loss, the Flyers scored only 59 points in an unimpressive win over UNC-Wilmington (3-3, has not looked good early on) in last game. I fully expect them to struggle offensively again on the road here against a strong SLU defense. First game in 7 days following finals week and early afternoon start time will not help them.
The Billikens are 46-13 (.780) against non-conference opponents at the Savvis Center and 111-34 (.766) in their last 145 home games overall. In meeting last year in Dayton, the Flyers won by just 6 points. I believe SLU has gained slightly in terms of returning talent. Revenge and exchange of home courts should be plenty to turn the tables this year.
St. Louis 1 UNIT
Rutgers (-1.5) at Princeton - 4:30pm Pacific
Fairly high on this Rutgers team. They return four starters from an 18-13 season of a year ago. Head coach Gary Waters is in his second season here and the team has looked good early on.
Few teams have a a trio of starting guards as talented as senior Jerome Coleman (21.8ppg, 2.3spg), junior Mike Sherrod (5.5ppg, 5.2rpg, 4.5apg, 2.2spg), and sophomore Ricky Shields (13.0ppg, 4.3rpg, 1.8spg). If you were keeping count these three average 5.3 steals a game between them! Senior center Kareem Wright lost a whopping 50 pounds in the offseason and has been much more active this year. Junior forward Herve Lamizana is a budding star (8.2ppg, 5.3rpg, 4.0 blocks, 20 points vs North Carolina). Rutgers has some active players off the bench including forward Sean Axani who was a starter last year.
The Scarlet Knights were incredibly close from upsetting the Tar Heels in North Carolina and advancing to the semifinals of the preseason NIT. Rutgers led by 11 with under 8 minutes to play but got some unfavorable calls and folded down the stretch losing by 4 points. They built a double digit lead in their next game at Temple as well, and this time held on for a 6 point win. They also played decent in a loss at Auburn this year so they have quality road game experience. At home Rutgers has been sensational in blow out wins over Marshall, Columbia, and most recently Fordham.
Princeton is clearly down this year. The Tigers inexcusably lost to a bad Florida International team at home three games back. In their next game they needed a 65 foot buzzer beater to beat a 1-4 Monmouth team. They beat a winless Lafayette team in most recent game. The Tigers have suffered some major attrition. They lost leading scorer Mike Bechtold as well as minute per game leader Ahmed El-Nokali to graduation. So three starters return, right? Wrong. Returning starting forward Dominick Martin opted to transfer out of the program, reserve forward Chris Klug quit the team, and key returnee F/C Konrad Wysocki (conference rookie of the year 2 years ago, played starters minutes last year) has not played a game yet this season due to a foot injury. The worst news came just recently that starting forward Andre Logan (second on team in scoring last year and this year) will miss the remainder of the year as he has not fully recovered from offseason knee surgery. Logan had averaged 32.3 minutes per game (team high) in first three games of the season. He will be sorely missed. This leaves Princeton with just one active starter from last years 16-12 team who trailed by 17 in the 2nd half before losing by 12 at Rutgers.
Princeton is said to have "sped up the offense" as they scored a season high 89 points in last game vs Lafayette. This would play right into the hands of Rutgers who will want nothing more than to play an uptempo game. Scarlet Knights love to harass with full court pressure and create turnovers. They do it very well (forcing 21 per game). Either way, they have too much talent, athleticism, and depth for Princeton to match up with. New Jersey locals report that Rutgers always brings a large contingent of fans for this game (almost making it a 50/50 crowd) which lessens the home court advantage significantly.
Rutgers 1 UNIT
San Francisco (+3.5) at Pacific - 7:35pm Pacific
The Dons have started the season 1-5, but three of the games could have easily been wins. They lost on a 30-foot buzzer beater to Nevada, lost by 5 at Sacramento State (Big Sky, undefeated at home this year), and most recently by just 3 to Fresno State in which they had a chance to take the lead and following free throws a chance to tie in the final seconds but could not convert either opportunity.
USF easily played their best basketball of the season vs Fresno and have had a week break prior to what they are calling the start of a "new season" today. The Dons welcome two key transfers into action for the first time today. Junior James Bayless (formerly at Nevada, career high of 24) and sophomore Alvin Broussard (formerly at New Mexico, 34 games, 3 starts as a freshman) are both slated to start today and instantly make this a better team. Head coach Phil Matthews on the two well regarded transfers, "They can play." Bayless (6-7, 235) gives USF an additional inside presence they badly needed and Broussard (6-6, 195) is said to be the most athletic player on the team.
The two newcomers should free up star senior forward Darrell Tucker (20.0ppg, 8.5rpg) to do even more damage on opponents. Tucker will easily be the best player on the court tonight. Junior guard Jovan Harris, a St. Mary's transfer who averaged 15.1ppg as a sophomore starts at two guard with steady sophomore Jason Gaines (leads conference in assist to turnover ratio 3.33:1) starting at point guard. Wings Shamell Stallworth, a senior, and John Cox (cousin of Kobe Bryant), a junior will come off the bench quickly. They both averaged double figures last season as starters and are 2nd & 3rd in minutes played per game this season. Two JC transfer forwards, Brandon Queen & Mamdou Cissi started all 6 games this season and will provide solid depth on the front-line in the new look lineup. With the added depth, USF will finally get to press more and get into an up and down game that they prefer.
Pacific has not shown much life at all this season. They are 1-4 with their only win coming by 4 points in OT vs Lamar (Southland conference, 211 RPI last year). The Tigers lost 4 starters and a reserve that accounted for 76% of the teams scoring from last years team. 5-10 senior guard Demetrius Jackson (17.6ppg in 5 games) is the only bright spot on this team. As a whole they are shooting just .362 from the field. Sophomore guard Jasko Korajkic who big things were expected of was sidelined with an injury to start the season and has only seen limited minutes in last two games. Pacific started the season with a 6 point home loss to a bad Santa Clara team and following Lamar win has not been competitive in their last three road games. They lost by 29 at Nevada, and by 20 at Fresno State, two teams that USF went down to the buzzer with. Granted, USF had both teams at home but the final score discrepancies are still glaring. Pacific is a very inexperienced team who is coming off three 20+ blowout losses in a row and is sure to be lacking confidence. They are not a team who should be giving points to anyone right now and certainly not to a dangerous USF team hungry for a big win.
San Francisco 1 UNIT
Good luck,
Edward
Right Angle Sports
http://www.Handicapper.net - Providing NCAA Handicapping Information, Picks, Insight, & Analysis since 1996.
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