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Can you spot a system versus a trend! a winner!
This is a sighting that may help some folks on BC. It is with my intention that a game brought up yesterday from a service on Houston Over on the total was a game totally based on trends and not a system that it portrayed. Some lost money on this play as I have lost my share on trends in the past.
When it comes to wagering on sports, every person has a slightly different take as to how to determine winners.
Some people just don’t have the time to figure out winners and believe it is best to pay someone else like a professional handicapper to try and win wagers. Others prefer the old fashion way of doing it yourself. The logic in teaching yourself is developing sound principles and the ability to learn from own mistakes.
Self handicappers will often fall into various categories, some may like trends, some believe they have a sense of feel about games, while still others believe systems are the best tool to use. When using trends or systems, it is imperative to understand what you are using.
Now most guys don’t like to read directions; it just slows down the process of getting something accomplished and we are all time challenged. (Though most will later admit this was not the case.)
Utilizing systems is often thought as among the best ways to create betting “pictures” since unlike trends, they relate to all teams in a given sport. By doing this you can save a boatload of money. It is frequently said by professional gamblers, it’s not always how much you make, its how much you keep. Here is a great example.
One of the top system plays floating around the internet on the NBA board for Monday was San Antonio hosting Portland. (Spears GOY on the Under)
Lets look at the sides. The Spurs were a super-sized 14-point home favorite and had a system that has paid off handsomely over the last eleven years. The idea was to Play Against road underdogs after two straight games where both teams scored 90 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more.
This system is solid winner with 50-18, 73.5% record since 1996. On the surface and by all appearances this is a very comfortable system to believe in.
Over the last three seasons the numbers are even a little better at 16-5 76.1%.
A key is to place this or any system under scrutiny when possible and evaluate it given the circumstances of the game.
When digging a little deeper we find this exact system to not be as reliable this season as compared to the past, a possible red flag.
In the 2006-07 season, this system is just 4-3 against the spread. This does not mean this is not a good play, rather just not as potent as in the recent past.
Seeking more information it is found the average actual spread of this potential play is 7.9 for the year, which is far below the spread of this Western Conference encounter. Now taking into consideration the average scoring differential of all the games played fitting this methodology was 100 to 88.3, for a difference of 11.7 points.
This is a fairly impressive spread margin when considering an average spread of 7.9 points, yet pails when comparing to a large number like fourteen. The Spurs still covered the big spread making the play a winner.
However value can be added by doing a little extra homework taking a quality system like this and making it work even more positively when the spread is in the 5-8 point range.
Being a detective can land profits, by finding elements above and beyond the obvious. This past Saturday night Denver was a 2.5-point underdog to the team with the best record in the NBA in Dallas. The Nuggets came into that contest winner’s of three straight games.
Denver popped up in a system, at least by the numbers similar to the one mentioned above.
Here the thought was to Play On all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver in this case) with triple revenge or 3 straight losses vs. opponent, after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points. This produced a good quality 47-18 ATS record since 1996.
Once again the persistent capper seeking more value finds despite not having this system arise this year to date, its record is 18-5 the last three seasons at even better 78.2 %. Going the extra mile we stumble across a dynamite 26-6 mark over the last five years for delicious 81.2 winning percentage. Denver pulls thru on the outright upset with 75-71 victory.
While trends indicate how teams may play given past records- they do little to emphasize the particulars that systems actually do. Frank had a unique display of systems and did well during this time of year. We will miss him! Do not believe that trends will take over the need to get further into the play enough to provide consistent winners.
When it comes to wagering on sports, every person has a slightly different take as to how to determine winners.
Some people just don’t have the time to figure out winners and believe it is best to pay someone else like a professional handicapper to try and win wagers. Others prefer the old fashion way of doing it yourself. The logic in teaching yourself is developing sound principles and the ability to learn from own mistakes.
Self handicappers will often fall into various categories, some may like trends, some believe they have a sense of feel about games, while still others believe systems are the best tool to use. When using trends or systems, it is imperative to understand what you are using.
Now most guys don’t like to read directions; it just slows down the process of getting something accomplished and we are all time challenged. (Though most will later admit this was not the case.)
Utilizing systems is often thought as among the best ways to create betting “pictures” since unlike trends, they relate to all teams in a given sport. By doing this you can save a boatload of money. It is frequently said by professional gamblers, it’s not always how much you make, its how much you keep. Here is a great example.
One of the top system plays floating around the internet on the NBA board for Monday was San Antonio hosting Portland. (Spears GOY on the Under)
Lets look at the sides. The Spurs were a super-sized 14-point home favorite and had a system that has paid off handsomely over the last eleven years. The idea was to Play Against road underdogs after two straight games where both teams scored 90 points or less against opponent after scoring 105 points or more.
This system is solid winner with 50-18, 73.5% record since 1996. On the surface and by all appearances this is a very comfortable system to believe in.
Over the last three seasons the numbers are even a little better at 16-5 76.1%.
A key is to place this or any system under scrutiny when possible and evaluate it given the circumstances of the game.
When digging a little deeper we find this exact system to not be as reliable this season as compared to the past, a possible red flag.
In the 2006-07 season, this system is just 4-3 against the spread. This does not mean this is not a good play, rather just not as potent as in the recent past.
Seeking more information it is found the average actual spread of this potential play is 7.9 for the year, which is far below the spread of this Western Conference encounter. Now taking into consideration the average scoring differential of all the games played fitting this methodology was 100 to 88.3, for a difference of 11.7 points.
This is a fairly impressive spread margin when considering an average spread of 7.9 points, yet pails when comparing to a large number like fourteen. The Spurs still covered the big spread making the play a winner.
However value can be added by doing a little extra homework taking a quality system like this and making it work even more positively when the spread is in the 5-8 point range.
Being a detective can land profits, by finding elements above and beyond the obvious. This past Saturday night Denver was a 2.5-point underdog to the team with the best record in the NBA in Dallas. The Nuggets came into that contest winner’s of three straight games.
Denver popped up in a system, at least by the numbers similar to the one mentioned above.
Here the thought was to Play On all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver in this case) with triple revenge or 3 straight losses vs. opponent, after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points. This produced a good quality 47-18 ATS record since 1996.
Once again the persistent capper seeking more value finds despite not having this system arise this year to date, its record is 18-5 the last three seasons at even better 78.2 %. Going the extra mile we stumble across a dynamite 26-6 mark over the last five years for delicious 81.2 winning percentage. Denver pulls thru on the outright upset with 75-71 victory.
While trends indicate how teams may play given past records- they do little to emphasize the particulars that systems actually do. Frank had a unique display of systems and did well during this time of year. We will miss him! Do not believe that trends will take over the need to get further into the play enough to provide consistent winners.
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