Saturday Trends and Indexes 04/07

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Saturday, April 7

Good Luck on day #97 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

MLB
Tips and Trends


Saturday, April 7

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B]Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers[/B] (1:05 PM ET)
Chicago starter Carlos Zambrano went 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in four starts against Milwaukee last year. He didn't win his first game until his eighth start of the year in 2006. EDGE: BREWERS
The Brewers went 48-33 at home last season, which was the fourth best home record in the National League. EDGE: BREWERS
Milwaukee starter Ben Sheets is making his second start of the season, after becoming the first pitcher to throw a complete game with two or fewer hits and no walks on Opening Day since Hall of Famer Lefty Gomez did it in 1940. EDGE: BREWERS


New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (3:55 PM ET)
Today will mark the second time that Tom Glavine and John Smoltz have started against each other. The only other time that occured was on July 15th, 2005, with Smoltz picking up the win. SLIGHT EDGE: BRAVES
New York starter Tom Glavine is 3-9 with a 5.68 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 15 career starts against Atlanta. EDGE: BRAVES
New York started the season 3-0 on the road for the first time since 1994. EDGE: METS


Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins (7:05 PM ET)
Dating back to last season, Brett Myers has made nine consecutive quality starts, posting a 4-1 record with a 2.79 ERA. EDGE: PHILLIES
Florida starter Dontrelle Willis is 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA in his last eight starts at Dolphin Stadium, including a complete-game shutout against the Phillies on September 10, 2006, in which he tied a career high with 12 strikeouts. EDGE: MARLINS

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[pm530]

NHL
Tips and trends


Saturday, April 7

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Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs (7 PM ET)
The Canadiens have dropped eight of 10 on the road and are visiting a Toronto team which has won eight straight at home while outscoring opponents 30-14. BIG EDGE: MAPLE LEAFS
Montreal holds a 4-2-1 edge in the season series between these teams with four of those matchups decided in shootouts. SLIGHT EDGE: CANADIENS
The home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
The OVER is 13-4-2 in the last 19 meetings.

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[pm530]

Arena Football League – Long Sheet

AFL
Long Sheet


Saturday, April 7

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NEW YORK (1 - 3) at GRAND RAPIDS (1 - 3) - 4/7/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GRAND RAPIDS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 1-0 against the spread versus GRAND RAPIDS over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 1-0 straight up against GRAND RAPIDS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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NEW ORLEANS (3 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 5) - 4/7/2007, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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CHICAGO (4 - 1) at NASHVILLE (2 - 3) - 4/7/2007, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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[pm530]

AFL
Write-up

Saturday, April 7

New York @ Grand Rapids-Rampage had last week off; they lost last three games, by 10,29,41 points, allowing 77 pg, very high, even by AFL standards- they lost 79-69/69-40 at home so far this season. Dragons struggling at 1-3 with Davey at QB, throwing nine INTs (turnovers are more deadly in AFL than NFL). Last three games for both sides all went over the total.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay-Storm off to worst-ever start (0-5) losing by 15,19,14,7,20 points; average score of their games is 60-43, with three of the five at home, and last four going over total (three of last four NO games stayed under total). Voodoo won three of last four games; they scored 60 pg in splitting first two road games, losing by two at Utah (61-63, +8).

Chicago @ Nashville- Rush won, covered its last four games, holding foes to 40.8 pg, but three of those four were at home; they're 1-1 on road, winning 55-47 at Columbus, losing 54-41 in opener at KC. Kats are off to slow 2-3 start, allowing 60.8 pg. Chicago is +10 in turnovers over last four games, recovering eight enemy fumbles. Last three Nashville games all went over the total.

[pm530]

MLB
Hot Lines


Saturday, April 7

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Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: pick Reds -165
It looks like Aaron Harang has figured out the Great American Ball Park.
The Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher struggled at home for much of last season, compiling a 4.61 ERA and allowing 20 home runs in 18 starts. But on opening day Harang looked comfortable in the hitter-friendly park, allowing no earned runs and striking out five in seven innings of work in a 5-1 win over the Chicago Cubs as a +117 underdog.



N.Y. Mets at Atlanta: pick Braves -120
John Smoltz remembers the days when the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets were bitter rivals fighting for control of the NL East.

That’s one reason the Braves starter pitches like it’s game seven of a playoff series every time he faces the Mets. In four starts against New York last season Smoltz gave up only 25 hits in 27 innings while striking out 29 and walking 10. He had a 2.33 ERA against the Mets and limited the National League’s most feared lineup to only three home runs.

“It’s not a situation of saying to ourselves, ‘Let’s just hang in there.’ It’s a situation of, ‘Let’s go out and create what once was a strong point of our ball club,’” Smoltz told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.



Minnesota at Chicago White Sox: pick White Sox -128
The Minnesota Twins think Sidney Ponson can be a consistent starting pitcher despite the fact it’s been almost four years since he had a decent season.

Ponson hasn’t had an ERA below five since 2003 and has had a losing record in seven of his eight big league campaigns. He rolled into training camp at 250 pounds this spring, displaying yet again that he failed to take his conditioning seriously in the offseason.

“We got rid of 175-pound Brad Radke and replaced him with (250 pound) Ponson,” Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson told TwinCities.com.




Oakland at L.A. Angels: pick Angels -132
Los Angeles Angels starter John Lackey had the Oakland Athletics' number in the second half of last season.

In three starts against Oakland after July 1 Lackey was simply dominant. The Angels won all three games with Lackey sporting a 0.75 ERA. He gave up only nine hits in 24 innings pitched and struck out 26 while walking just two batters.

Lackey also looked very good on opening day for the Angels, giving up four hits and no earned runs in five innings of work during their 4-1 win over the Texas Rangers as -144 favorites.



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[pm530]

MLB
Dunkel Index


SATURDAY, APRIL 7

Boston at Texas
Boston managed just three hits and zero runs yesterday as the Rangers picked up their first win of the year. But the Red Sox have not lost back-to-back games to Texas since the 2004 season -- a span of 25 games. And Texas starter, Kevin Millwood, lost both starts to the Bosox last season while giving up seven runs in 11 innings. Millwood is also coming off a loss in the season-opener against the Angels (4-1) in which he gave up three runs in five innings. Boston reliever Julian Tavarez will be forced into starting duty, but fared well (3-0, 4.01 ERA) in the six starts he made late last season. Boston looks like a good underdog pick (+145) in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored straight up by 1 1/2 runs. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+145). Here are all of today's games.

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) 17.050; Milwaukee (Sheets) 18.162
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-122); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-122); Over

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Lowe) 17.330; San Francisco (Ortiz) 15.691
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Glavine) 20.156; Atlanta (Smoltz) 18.438
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+130); Over

Game 907-908: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Myers) 17.402; Florida (Willis) 18.186
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-123); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-123); Over

Game 909-910: Arizona at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Webb) 16.852; Washington (Patterson) 15.184
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-147); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-147); Over

Game 911-912: St. Louis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Reyes) 15.817; Houston (Oswalt) 16.438
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Houston (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-170); Under

Game 913-914: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Armas) 16.808; Cincinnati (Harang) 18.959
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-170); Under

Game 915-916: Colorado at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 17.696; San Diego (Wells) 17.340
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-147); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+147); Under

Game 917-918: Baltimore at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Trachsel) 16.350; NY Yankees (Igawa) 17.853
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-210); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-210); Under

Game 919-920: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Maroth) 17.211; Kansas City (Meche) 18.219
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-132); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+132); Under

Game 921-922: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Silva) 19.465; Chicago White Sox (Vazquez) 17.879
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Under

Game 923-924: Seattle at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Weaver) 17.325; Cleveland (Sabathia) 20.447
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-170); Over

Game 925-926: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Ohka) 18.185; Tampa Bay (Fossum) 17.286
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-135); Under

Game 927-928: Boston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Tavarez) 18.124; Texas (Millwood) 16.689
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+145); Under

Game 929-930: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Haren) 17.971; LA Angels (Lackey) 20.327
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Over

[pm530]

NHL
Dunkel Index


SATURDAY, APRIL 7

Buffalo at Washington
Although the Sabres have already clinched home ice advantage through the Eastern Conference playoffs, they need a win today against Washington to edge out Detroit for the best record in the league. The Caps come in with a two-game winning streak, but have not managed to win three straight since January 4-9. Doing so against a motivated Buffalo team will be tough as the Sabres are a solid favorite according to Dunkel, which has Buffalo favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's early games. We will post the remaining games later today.

Game 51-52: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.455; Detroit 12.902
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 5
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under

Game 53-54: NY Islanders at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.338; Philadelphia 11.077
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Under

Game 55-56: Buffalo at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 13.500; Washington 11.204
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1 1/2); Under

[Dennis14072]

Good morning PM. Thanks for being an earlybird, my first read after work every AM!

[Udog]

Wow, Dennis! Are you just up or still up? LOL!!! Good morning!

[Dennis14072]

Still, unfortunately. Thanks for all you guys do!

[Udog]

NP, buddy!
They sure are taking their time getting any more out, aren't they? Hopefully, they'll fire it back up soon and we can get you a little sleep!

[Kaptain]

Thanks fellows----you guys are certainly appreciated, we just don't take the time to say it often enough-----kapt

[Udog]

Good morning, Kaptain! Thanks for the kind words, as always! Good luck today!

[Udog]

Guys,

I was trying to wait for the NBA Dunkel but the Long Sheets are coming up. We'll post NBA Dunkel a little later, a little out of order.