Input Please

[KR-V3]

I have $150 to win $850 on UNC to win the National Title, do you think it is wise to play Georgetown +4 @ -115 and try and catch a middle, or just let the UNC prop bet ride??

Thanks in advance for the advise!!

[rcmcd]

tempting play but imo id say let it ride

[SundevilSam]

I have $150 to win $850 on UNC to win the National Title, do you think it is wise to play Georgetown +4 @ -115 and try and catch a middle, or just let the UNC prop bet ride??

Thanks in advance for the advise!!

I would say play the middle, especially because I like G'town to win it all, but you also will get three points to win, ala UNC wins by 1,2, or 3. If they win by 4 it's a push. I think it is a wise bet for at least a hundred. You lose, you might only win $750, big deal. You win, you at least cover some of your money or you might even add to your money.

[jt4545]

Let It Ride

[orientalhawn]

Let it ride

[Kaptain]

Play GeoTown +4 for $150.00......If NC wins by 1,2, or 3, you win your money back, and then you have NC at $0 to win $850....If GeoTown wins outright, nothing loss, nothing gained......If NC wins by more than 4, you have $300 invested to win $850....Then relook at it after this game....You'll have more parameters/variables to look at then.........IMO

If NC wins by exactly 4, you now have another game, and another option to hedge on..........kapt

[wayne1218]

I say screw all that. You made the bet because you thought UNC would win it all right? You are a gambler right? UNC is favored and looking pretty good right?

LET IT RIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chado1]

I say screw all that. You made the bet because you thought UNC would win it all right? You are a gambler right? UNC is favored and looking pretty good right?

LET IT RIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Totally agree....UNC should beat GTOWN so just leave it.....

[Kaptain]

Chado/Wayne

Totally agree....UNC should beat GTOWN so just leave it.....

UNC should, and I quote should beat Geotown.....Line is only 4....Not 14....what if they don't....remotely possible, as oddsmakers said so by low line.......

Linesmakers had Kansas as a favorite also, 1 1/2 points different from the opening of this one, and got beat by 13.....Before the game, I said Kansas Should win this one......

He believes NC is the better team here, or he wouldn't have picked em to win it all....He's looking for strictly a move to protect his investment.........Damn right it's gambling, but futures allow you the luxury of manuevering or hedging to protect investments......

Had the line been 8-12, I would say forget it, let it ride, this line opened up at 3-3 1/2..big difference.....IMO

[KR-V3]

thanks for the much appreciated advise guys, I think I'll try and hedge here as the spreads will get smaller if NC wins- thanks again!!

[wayne1218]

UNC should, and I quote should beat Geotown.....Line is only 4....Not 14....what if they don't....remotely possible, as oddsmakers said so by low line.......

Linesmakers had Kansas as a favorite also, 1 1/2 points different from the opening of this one, and got beat by 13.....Before the game, I said Kansas Should win this one......

He believes NC is the better team here, or he wouldn't have picked em to win it all....He's looking for strictly a move to protect his investment.........Damn right it's gambling, but futures allow you the luxury of manuevering or hedging to protect investments......

Had the line been 8-12, I would say forget it, let it ride, this line opened up at 3-3 1/2..big difference.....IMO

Kaptain, I've never hedged a bet in my life. If i bet on UNC to win it all, i would ride it out. Why start playing that hedging game when you can easily give a chunk back or get totally screwed all the way around. I don't believe in betting G-Town and to keep hedging when everything you wanted/had is on UNC.

I'm a gambler and i want the WHOLE profit. I'm not giving double or another $150 to the book to hedge. At that point, you just cut your original odds right in half if they win. Not worth it and not worth the anguish of trying to hit all the middles and not screw yourself.

LET IT RIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fuck it, if you lose big deal, you are out $150 and NO MORE!

[wayne1218]

UNC should, and I quote should beat Geotown.....Line is only 4....Not 14....what if they don't....remotely possible, as oddsmakers said so by low line.......

Linesmakers had Kansas as a favorite also, 1 1/2 points different from the opening of this one, and got beat by 13.....Before the game, I said Kansas Should win this one......

He believes NC is the better team here, or he wouldn't have picked em to win it all....He's looking for strictly a move to protect his investment.........Damn right it's gambling, but futures allow you the luxury of manuevering or hedging to protect investments......

Had the line been 8-12, I would say forget it, let it ride, this line opened up at 3-3 1/2..big difference.....IMO

I also don't think the line matters. Both games yesterday were tight -3 or less spreads and one favorite won by 16 and one dog won by 13. The line is totally insignificant. I would rather hedge on the -8 or -9 because of the added space there so we are totally opposite on that one.

[wayne1218]

I have $150 to win $850 on UNC to win the National Title, do you think it is wise to play Georgetown +4 @ -115 and try and catch a middle, or just let the UNC prop bet ride??

Thanks in advance for the advise!!

It really doesn't make any sense to me unless your only goal was to clear a tiny profit and if that is the case it's cool but you will never collect a $850 ticket doing that.

What if you hedge another $150 on the Hoyas and Unc wins by 6. You are now $315 into it right? Than they are favored by -3/-4 over Ohio St and you hedge another $150 on the Buckeyes and UNC wins by 8. Now you are up $480 invested and sweating a little. You then do what, take Florida as a -3 favorite for $150 and either have them win by 2 and screw you out of $645 or they lose outright to UNC and you end up clearing $205 for a $645 risk.

These tight lines make it even tougher to hedge with and the whole thing can turn into a disaster if the team you pick to win keeps winning, and knocking alot off your profit with every victory.

[Kaptain]

Kr-v3

Sorry your NC boys got beat, but I actually thought Geo could beat em..........Hope you took my advice, and at least got your $150 back........

For UNC to win the next three games, counting todays, it would be 1 in 8 odds.....that is why I was urging you to do the hedge.....and guarantee yourself of at least some money....or let er roll on, and go for the Gusto........

I personally don't hedge, or bet 1/2 time plays, but I was merely giving you the better percentages and odds of at least staying ahead.........I would have let er roll..........if it was me, but I was suggesting the opposite to you, cause you seemed concerned about the odds....kapt

[wayne1218]

You were right on this one Kaptain. Hedging would of brought the money back.