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Kaptains "Sweet 16 Takes" for Thursday
Here's how I see em, and a quick statement as to why on each game..........
661 Texas A&M -3....Better FG %, FT %, and 3 PT %..Top 25 RPI opponents 2-2, Memphis 1-2....almost home Court advantage....Memphis' Roberts, their leading scorer, not at full strength........Law is the play maker, but I think the difference in this game will be provided by A & M's Kirk...Avg's 7.3 ppg for regular season, but has stepped it up to 18.5 in Tourney......10* PLAY
661/662 Tex A&M/Memphis OVER 135 1/2........Mem avgs 79.3 ppg, and A&M 75.9.....Both have good defenses, yielding 62 and 59 ppg......If they both play according to their avgs, the game will go over.......combining defense and offense stats...I think they both run and score....Despite the bad ankle of Roberts, I feel they will both score, but A&M more....A&M FG % 50, Memphis 46....FT % A&M 72 %, Memphis 62%....Between the 2 of em, combined 16 steals per game, and turnovers 26....This results in points......Not to mention KingNeil has this as a hi rated play also........10*
664 Ohio St -4.....Though OSU only won by 2 earlier in the season, Oden was not at full strength....He is almost 100% now, and this will make a big difference...OSU struggled with Xavier, Oden fouled out, should play a lil smarter today, and that game was an awakening to the Buckeyes...Tenn has Lofton and Smit, but I don't feel they can continue the torrid shooting pace....They lack a big man to stop Oden, and if OSU gets it in the paint often enough, they'll score easily...Oden also a defensive threat...Tenn avgs winning by 6, OSU 13 1/2...Against top 25 RPI opponents, Tenn is 7-6, while OSU is 10-3....against top 50, Tenn 6-2, and OSU 5-0....Tenn on neutral court 3-5, Tenn 5-1....a 2 possession game spread here...OSU has a higher shooting % in FG's, FT's. and 3 pt'ers......Tenn turns it over more than OSU does...Out of 11 statistics I utilize, OSU has the edge on 9 of em......10*....also suspect an under here.....but I don't usually play em...
666 Kansas -9......Great Defense of S Ill, vs the Potent offense of Ks....Ks avgs winning by 18 ppg, S Ill by 7....Ks scoring 79 ppg, S Ill giving up just 56, but score just 63....Ks also has good D allowing just 61 ppg....2 good defenses.....I real strong offense, KS # 12 in scoring, vs S Ill #282....#3 D for S Ill vs #30 D for Kansas....you do the math....D difference is close, Offensive difference is significant....FG % and 3pt % favors Ks, while FT % favors S Ill, barely...Rebounds, Ks rated # 10, S Ill #322....Difference of about 12 rebounds per game....With kansas's speed, thats a lot of points....Kansas, big difference in Blocked shots, assists, assist/turnover ratio....Now add to the fact, this is not FootBall, and I'm a proponent of Good offenses, vs good defenses, Offenses Prevail.........+ Shaw for S Ill not at full strength10*
668 UCLA -3 ($).......2 pretty well matched teams....RPI wise, record wise, and SOS wise....But I see a difference here....Ucla vs top 25 RPI teams 10-3, top 50, 5-0, whereas Pitt is 6-6, and 7-1 respectively...Both avg 71 ppg, but UCLA yields 3 less (59 vs 62)...Pitt will try to play inside (Gray), whil UCLA is more of a perimeter team....UCLA has a % advantage on FG's, and 3 pt'ers, while Pitt has slight adv on FT's...Afflalo for UCLA has had 4 bad games in a row (just 32 % from the field), I think he smokes it today....Shipp and Colllison, too quick for Pittsburgh...........Coacj=hing and Speed advantage goes to UCLA....10*
Believe it or not----all CHALK plays.....don't like that too much, but that's the way it came out.....Cream comes to the top today, and the churning of milk to make butter, doesn't start till next round.....gl to you all....kapt
I'm hookomg up the wheel, with A&M, A&M OVER, & UCLA.......lets hope the Old Kapt is right, going against some good cappers in here.....
661 Texas A&M -3....Better FG %, FT %, and 3 PT %..Top 25 RPI opponents 2-2, Memphis 1-2....almost home Court advantage....Memphis' Roberts, their leading scorer, not at full strength........Law is the play maker, but I think the difference in this game will be provided by A & M's Kirk...Avg's 7.3 ppg for regular season, but has stepped it up to 18.5 in Tourney......10* PLAY
661/662 Tex A&M/Memphis OVER 135 1/2........Mem avgs 79.3 ppg, and A&M 75.9.....Both have good defenses, yielding 62 and 59 ppg......If they both play according to their avgs, the game will go over.......combining defense and offense stats...I think they both run and score....Despite the bad ankle of Roberts, I feel they will both score, but A&M more....A&M FG % 50, Memphis 46....FT % A&M 72 %, Memphis 62%....Between the 2 of em, combined 16 steals per game, and turnovers 26....This results in points......Not to mention KingNeil has this as a hi rated play also........10*
664 Ohio St -4.....Though OSU only won by 2 earlier in the season, Oden was not at full strength....He is almost 100% now, and this will make a big difference...OSU struggled with Xavier, Oden fouled out, should play a lil smarter today, and that game was an awakening to the Buckeyes...Tenn has Lofton and Smit, but I don't feel they can continue the torrid shooting pace....They lack a big man to stop Oden, and if OSU gets it in the paint often enough, they'll score easily...Oden also a defensive threat...Tenn avgs winning by 6, OSU 13 1/2...Against top 25 RPI opponents, Tenn is 7-6, while OSU is 10-3....against top 50, Tenn 6-2, and OSU 5-0....Tenn on neutral court 3-5, Tenn 5-1....a 2 possession game spread here...OSU has a higher shooting % in FG's, FT's. and 3 pt'ers......Tenn turns it over more than OSU does...Out of 11 statistics I utilize, OSU has the edge on 9 of em......10*....also suspect an under here.....but I don't usually play em...
666 Kansas -9......Great Defense of S Ill, vs the Potent offense of Ks....Ks avgs winning by 18 ppg, S Ill by 7....Ks scoring 79 ppg, S Ill giving up just 56, but score just 63....Ks also has good D allowing just 61 ppg....2 good defenses.....I real strong offense, KS # 12 in scoring, vs S Ill #282....#3 D for S Ill vs #30 D for Kansas....you do the math....D difference is close, Offensive difference is significant....FG % and 3pt % favors Ks, while FT % favors S Ill, barely...Rebounds, Ks rated # 10, S Ill #322....Difference of about 12 rebounds per game....With kansas's speed, thats a lot of points....Kansas, big difference in Blocked shots, assists, assist/turnover ratio....Now add to the fact, this is not FootBall, and I'm a proponent of Good offenses, vs good defenses, Offenses Prevail.........+ Shaw for S Ill not at full strength10*
668 UCLA -3 ($).......2 pretty well matched teams....RPI wise, record wise, and SOS wise....But I see a difference here....Ucla vs top 25 RPI teams 10-3, top 50, 5-0, whereas Pitt is 6-6, and 7-1 respectively...Both avg 71 ppg, but UCLA yields 3 less (59 vs 62)...Pitt will try to play inside (Gray), whil UCLA is more of a perimeter team....UCLA has a % advantage on FG's, and 3 pt'ers, while Pitt has slight adv on FT's...Afflalo for UCLA has had 4 bad games in a row (just 32 % from the field), I think he smokes it today....Shipp and Colllison, too quick for Pittsburgh...........Coacj=hing and Speed advantage goes to UCLA....10*
Believe it or not----all CHALK plays.....don't like that too much, but that's the way it came out.....Cream comes to the top today, and the churning of milk to make butter, doesn't start till next round.....gl to you all....kapt
I'm hookomg up the wheel, with A&M, A&M OVER, & UCLA.......lets hope the Old Kapt is right, going against some good cappers in here.....
PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !! 
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