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College Basketball
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The "Sweet 16" is upon us. Bought 1/2 = (-120)
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"Triple-Double" (
Units)
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Texas A&M -2 (-120)
The Aggies have to be the play for me here after getting by the hostile Louisville matchup. I think you are getting the crowd and the better team in A&M for a cheap price. Memphis did have some nice wins over Kentucky back in November and against Gonzaga back in February by 1 point. Let's face it, both Kentucky and Gonzaga had subpar years by their standards and the rest of the Memphis schedule was very weak (IMO). They did play G.T., Tenn. and Arizona too but they lost all 3 of those games by 7, 8 & 18 points.
A&M on the other hand has had a much tougher schedule and played well against it with impressive wins @ Kansas and by 18 over Texas. The Aggies are (5-1) against the Top 50 and Memphis is (1-2). The status of leading scorer Douglas-Roberts for Memphis is very concerning as well. Even if he plays i feel his mobility will be limited and it will hurt Memphis alot. Not only are the Aggies (7-1) in their last 8 Neutral site games, they are also (20-8) in their last 28 games as a favorite. Memphis is only (2-5) in their last 7 neutral site games as a dog. Add the home cooking here and those neutral site numbers only look better. The Aggies also hold a much better FG% on offense and a better FG% against on defense. It can be called the trap or sucker play all day long but i have to play the Aggies here either way! Texas A&M 72 Memphis 64
Tennessee +5 (-120)
I have to go with the Vols here. They played @ Ohio St earlier in the year and lost by 2 points. They were out rebounded by 16 in that game and only shot 39% from the field compared to 43% for the Buckeyes. Tenn. was also only 5-11 from the FT line compared to Ohio St's 18-20. OSU had 5 blocks and Tenn. had none. So how did they keep it within 2 points? Guard play. The Vols forced 20 Turnovers while giving up only 8. These teams are very equal in SOS and RPI but i believe Tenn. has the more impressive wins over Florida by 10, Vandy by 27, Texas and Memphis. OSU held their own in what i consider to be a top heavy conference but they didn't do much out of conference getting hammered by Florida and UNC while beating this UT team at home by 2.
I don't expect Oden will intimidate the Vols too much. They played and beat a Top 10 team in blocks this season (Miss St) and they also played some other lengthy teams in conference like Florida. Chism and Conley Jr are both much improved since the last meeting. I really feel like the Vols guard play will keep them in this until the end. UT is (8-1) Ats last 9 as a dog and OSU is (1-5) in their last 6 tourney games as a favorite. If UT can play that badly at OSU and get out played everywhere in the box score while only losing by 2, i surely think on a neutral court and with a better performance, the Vols can get it done. I actually have this same matchup in my bracket with OSU winning and beating A&M to get to the final 4. I just don't see it the same way right now. I think OSU has been exposed a little bit and i think the Vols are just feeling it and surging at the right time. I guess a tight game with OSU winning by a bucket wouldn't be too bad but ... Tennessee 73 Ohio St 71
Kansas -9
The Jayhawks are the play here for me. So Illinois has had a great run but i think it ends right here. The status of Matt Shaw is a question mark. Without him, they are in big trouble (IMO), with him, they have a chance of keeping it closer. Either way i think the size of Kansas is the difference here. So Illinois was out rebounded 30-28 against HC and they out rebounded V.T. 30-29. This will be a much different story Thursday. Kansas will dominate the boards like they always do (2nd in the country on the defensive glass) and limit So Illinois to one and done on most possesions. Add to that So Illinois is ranked 293rd in the country at getting defensive rebounds, and that spells a ton of 2nd chance points for Kansas on the offensive end. Shaw would be critical in helping on the glass if he was healthy.
I think Julian Wright and Darrell Arthur will play all day in the paint causing headaches and foul trouble for the Salukis while kicking out to Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush for open jumpers on the perimeter, after the Salukis start collapsing their defense inside. Sasha Kaun on the inside at 6'11 will also cause major shot blocking problems for this small So Illinois squad. In the end it's just too much firepower and depth on the KU side here! Kansas 74 So Illinois 59
UCLA -3
I have to go with the Bruins here. They have Final 4 experience and much like A&M, should have a home court feeling for this game. UCLA has a solid (10-1) record against the RPI Top 50 and that shows they get up for big games and they have the talent to win them. Pittsburgh on the other hand is a shaky (6-7) against the Top 50 and their star power is not nearly as deep. Aaron Gray shows up off and on and at times Pitt looks dreadful on offense. I realize the same can be said of UCLA but they have more weapons to offset someone having a bad night or foul trouble. These teams are almost mirror images of each other on paper with UCLA holding a slight defensive edge. I think one of the intangibles here is the coach for each team. The teacher and the pupil go head to head. Something tells me Ben Howland will out coach the pupil here.
Pitt. only has 2 guys averaging double figure scoring. When they get cold, they get ice cold. Fields and Ramon are capable of lighting it up from the outside but i think the quick UCLA Guards will be in their face all day. UCLA has Afflalo, Shipp and Collison ... Guys who are all capable of leading the way on any given day. In the end i feel like i have the Homecourt, coaching, talent and experience all on my side here with the Bruins. UCLA 65 Pittsburgh 58
GOOD LUCK
----------------------
The "Sweet 16" is upon us. Bought 1/2 = (-120)
..................................................
"Triple-Double" (
Units)..................................................
Texas A&M -2 (-120)
The Aggies have to be the play for me here after getting by the hostile Louisville matchup. I think you are getting the crowd and the better team in A&M for a cheap price. Memphis did have some nice wins over Kentucky back in November and against Gonzaga back in February by 1 point. Let's face it, both Kentucky and Gonzaga had subpar years by their standards and the rest of the Memphis schedule was very weak (IMO). They did play G.T., Tenn. and Arizona too but they lost all 3 of those games by 7, 8 & 18 points.
A&M on the other hand has had a much tougher schedule and played well against it with impressive wins @ Kansas and by 18 over Texas. The Aggies are (5-1) against the Top 50 and Memphis is (1-2). The status of leading scorer Douglas-Roberts for Memphis is very concerning as well. Even if he plays i feel his mobility will be limited and it will hurt Memphis alot. Not only are the Aggies (7-1) in their last 8 Neutral site games, they are also (20-8) in their last 28 games as a favorite. Memphis is only (2-5) in their last 7 neutral site games as a dog. Add the home cooking here and those neutral site numbers only look better. The Aggies also hold a much better FG% on offense and a better FG% against on defense. It can be called the trap or sucker play all day long but i have to play the Aggies here either way! Texas A&M 72 Memphis 64
Tennessee +5 (-120)
I have to go with the Vols here. They played @ Ohio St earlier in the year and lost by 2 points. They were out rebounded by 16 in that game and only shot 39% from the field compared to 43% for the Buckeyes. Tenn. was also only 5-11 from the FT line compared to Ohio St's 18-20. OSU had 5 blocks and Tenn. had none. So how did they keep it within 2 points? Guard play. The Vols forced 20 Turnovers while giving up only 8. These teams are very equal in SOS and RPI but i believe Tenn. has the more impressive wins over Florida by 10, Vandy by 27, Texas and Memphis. OSU held their own in what i consider to be a top heavy conference but they didn't do much out of conference getting hammered by Florida and UNC while beating this UT team at home by 2.
I don't expect Oden will intimidate the Vols too much. They played and beat a Top 10 team in blocks this season (Miss St) and they also played some other lengthy teams in conference like Florida. Chism and Conley Jr are both much improved since the last meeting. I really feel like the Vols guard play will keep them in this until the end. UT is (8-1) Ats last 9 as a dog and OSU is (1-5) in their last 6 tourney games as a favorite. If UT can play that badly at OSU and get out played everywhere in the box score while only losing by 2, i surely think on a neutral court and with a better performance, the Vols can get it done. I actually have this same matchup in my bracket with OSU winning and beating A&M to get to the final 4. I just don't see it the same way right now. I think OSU has been exposed a little bit and i think the Vols are just feeling it and surging at the right time. I guess a tight game with OSU winning by a bucket wouldn't be too bad but ... Tennessee 73 Ohio St 71
Kansas -9
The Jayhawks are the play here for me. So Illinois has had a great run but i think it ends right here. The status of Matt Shaw is a question mark. Without him, they are in big trouble (IMO), with him, they have a chance of keeping it closer. Either way i think the size of Kansas is the difference here. So Illinois was out rebounded 30-28 against HC and they out rebounded V.T. 30-29. This will be a much different story Thursday. Kansas will dominate the boards like they always do (2nd in the country on the defensive glass) and limit So Illinois to one and done on most possesions. Add to that So Illinois is ranked 293rd in the country at getting defensive rebounds, and that spells a ton of 2nd chance points for Kansas on the offensive end. Shaw would be critical in helping on the glass if he was healthy.
I think Julian Wright and Darrell Arthur will play all day in the paint causing headaches and foul trouble for the Salukis while kicking out to Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush for open jumpers on the perimeter, after the Salukis start collapsing their defense inside. Sasha Kaun on the inside at 6'11 will also cause major shot blocking problems for this small So Illinois squad. In the end it's just too much firepower and depth on the KU side here! Kansas 74 So Illinois 59
UCLA -3
I have to go with the Bruins here. They have Final 4 experience and much like A&M, should have a home court feeling for this game. UCLA has a solid (10-1) record against the RPI Top 50 and that shows they get up for big games and they have the talent to win them. Pittsburgh on the other hand is a shaky (6-7) against the Top 50 and their star power is not nearly as deep. Aaron Gray shows up off and on and at times Pitt looks dreadful on offense. I realize the same can be said of UCLA but they have more weapons to offset someone having a bad night or foul trouble. These teams are almost mirror images of each other on paper with UCLA holding a slight defensive edge. I think one of the intangibles here is the coach for each team. The teacher and the pupil go head to head. Something tells me Ben Howland will out coach the pupil here.
Pitt. only has 2 guys averaging double figure scoring. When they get cold, they get ice cold. Fields and Ramon are capable of lighting it up from the outside but i think the quick UCLA Guards will be in their face all day. UCLA has Afflalo, Shipp and Collison ... Guys who are all capable of leading the way on any given day. In the end i feel like i have the Homecourt, coaching, talent and experience all on my side here with the Bruins. UCLA 65 Pittsburgh 58
GOOD LUCK
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