Monday Trends and Indexes 03/19

[pm530]

Trends and Indexes
Monday, March 19

Good Luck on day #78 of 2007!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.

[pm530]

Six-Pack for Monday

We're looking at all thirty big league teams during spring training; today, we look at the Milwaukee Brewers

-- Brewers were 48-33 at home last year, their best record at home since 1992. Road games weren't as kind; Milwaukee was 27-54 away from Miller Park.

-- Chris Capuano made All-Star team last year, but after the All Star break, won only one more game.

-- Bill Hall hit 27 homers while playing shortstop last year, more than anyone else in major leagues.

-- Francisco Cordero starts as the closer, Derrick Turnbow had a 13.06 ERA in his last 27 appearances in 2006.

-- Milwaukee was 4.5 games out of playoff spot on Aug 24, but scored 29 runs over next ten games, going 0-10.

-- Brewers drew 2.3M fans last year, third-most in franchise history.

[pm530]

Monday's list of 13: Wrapping up a weekend of hoops

13) Kevin Kruger stepped up when it counted, snapping out of horrible shooting slump, as UNLV moved into Sweet 16 for first time since the Tarkanian era in 1991. Wisconsin has to be the tournament's most disappointing team.

12) I totally underrated Purdue this season; we had them one night back in late November, and was unimpressed, but they steadily got better and gave Florida quite a battle today. With a stellar recruiting class coming in next year, Boilers expect to be contenders in the Big 11.

11) Tim Floyd got ripped for being lousy NBA coach, but the NBA is a player's league; college is where coaches can coach and Floyd is doing masterful job at USC. Will be interesting to see how USC does once they get OJ Mayo to LA.

10) Mayo was recently one of four young men arrested down in West Virginia for possession of drugs, but Mayo's charges were later dropped. He had 41 points this weekend in West Virginia's state title game, won by Huntington 103-61. He is a great talent, but unless he learns to hang with right people, trouble will always be a couple of steps away.

9) At some point, you start four freshmen, it is going to bite you; there is a maturity factor involved. Longhorns are going to miss Kevin Durant when he is off making millions in NBA, but they still have solid nucleus for strong future.

8) Celtics got fined $30,000 for excessive contact with family of Durant at the Big 12 tournament last week. As I watched Danny Ainge talk to Durant's mother on TV, I'm wondering if this is legal, but figured it had to be, since it was so out in the open. Nope.

7) Meanwhile the Celtics are starting to win more often; they now have the second-worst record in NBA. Boston better get either the first or second pick, or all this losing is for naught.

6) In golf, Texas alum Justin Leonard made his first cut in his eight tournaments this year, but finished T75th, at +20, at the Bay Hill event in Orlando, as his struggles continue.

5) Southern Illinois shot little under 37% from arc for season; in two games against Virginia Tech, they were 20-36 (55.6%).

4) Funny how when #11 seeds have beaten 6 seeds in first round of NCAAs, they seldom do well in second round; after Winthrop's loss Sunday, 11 seeds are now 5-16 vs spread in round two vs 3 seeds, over last twenty years.

3) Early spreads for Sweet 16 games:

Tennessee
Ohio State 4, 143.5

Vanderbilt
Georgetown 7, 131

Memphis
Texas A&M 2, 134

Butler
Florida 10.5, 124

Southern Illinois
Kansas 9, 125

USC
North Carolina 8.5, 150

Pittsburgh
UCLA 2, 122.5

UNLV
Oregon 2, 140

2) Heading into Sweet 16, there is no evidence to suggest the Kansas Jayhawks aren't the best team. North Carolina would seem to be the team with best chance to beat them.

1) Final tally for Sunday: favorites were 5-3, making total for the second round 9-7 underdogs, for whole weekend 30-18 in favor of the favorites. Over was 5-3 Sunday, making total for the weekend 27-21, over.

[pm530]

College Basketball – write up

NCAAB
Write up


Monday, March 19

NIT Second Round

Clemson won three of last four games, but covered one of last six as a favorite; they shot 37.9% in its first round win, 6-25 on arc. Tigers are 15-0 outside of ACC, 3-0 vs SEC, beating South Carolina 74-53, Mississippi State 68-66, Georgia 75-60. Ole Miss is 2-10 on road this year, winning at South Alabama, Auburn; they're 8-6 vs spread as an underdog, 1-3 in last four tries.

San Diego State is 9-3 in last 12 games; think all their guys have seen snow? Aztecs are 12-3 out of Mountain West, winning in tough Missouri State gym in first round, shooting 51.9% from the floor; they're 7-3 vs spread as an underdog. Syrcause won last five home games, by 6,2,10,14,6 points; they're 11-12 vs the spread as favorite, 3-1 in last four tries.

DePaul is 6-2 in last eight games, but lost four of last five road tilts; they're 10-5 out of Big East, beating Kansas in only game vs Big 12 foe. Blue Demons are 3-6-1 vs spread as an underdog. Kansas State was life-and-death to beat Vermont in first round of NIT; Wildcats covered eight of last ten as favorite. Huggins used to beat DePaul regularly when he was at Cincinnati.

Air Force is 14-1 outside of Mountain West, where teams don't see Princeton offense all the time, but they've lost four of last five games, beating weak Austin Peay team 75-51 in first round win. Georgia plays Vanderbilt twice a year; Commodores have a similar offense to Falcons (Dawgs split with Vandy this season) Air Force is 3-5 in last eight as favorite. Georgia is 1-6 vs spread in last seven games as an underdog.

[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Write up

NBA
Write-up


Monday, March 19

Hot Teams
-- Celtics are 7-4 in their last eleven games (9-2 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Atlanta lost last two games, by 21,23 points. Sacramento lost five of its last six games.
-- New Orleans lost seven of its last eight games.

Series Records
-- Hawks lost 117-92 at Arco Arena Dec 10 (+9.5).
-- Hornets won 91-87 in Boston way back on Nov 1 (+4.5).

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Hornets covered front end of seven of last ten back/backs.

Totals
-- Last five Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Over is 14-5 in Hornets' last nineteen games.

[pm530]

Hockey – write up

NHL
Write up

Monday, March 19

Hot Teams
-- Rangers won four of last five home games. Penguins won five in row, seven of last eight games.
-- Vancouver won seven of its last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Edmonton lost last ten games, outscored 37-9.

Series Records
-- Penguins are 3-2 vs Rangers this season: 1-2/3-1/2-3/6-5/4-3.
-- Canucks are 5-2 vs Edmonton this season.

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Penguins are 4-8 if they played the night before.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Penguin games went over the total, but 12 of last 14 Ranger games stayed under.
-- Under is 7-0-3 in last ten Edmonton games.

[pm530]

Pro Basketball – Tips and Trends

NBA
Tips and trends


Monday, March 19

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Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks (7 PM ET)
The Kings have won the last seven meetings with the Hawks, going 5-2 ATS in those games. EDGE: KINGS
Sacramento used outstanding defense to win at Orlando on Saturday, but that was just the first time in five games the Kings held an opponent under 100 points. The Hawks have scored 100 points or more in six of their last seven home games. EDGE: HAWKS
Atlanta All-Star Joe Johnson has missed the last six games with a calf injury. The Hawks won the first four games with Johnson out, but they have lost the last two by a combined 45 points. EDGE: KINGS

OVER is 10-1 in Atlanta's last 11 games against Western Conference opponents.
Home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

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Boston Celtics at New Orleans Hornets (8 PM ET)
The Hornets have dropped seven of their last eight games, falling two games out of the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Insiders believe point guard Chris Paul is playing hurt right now in an effort to get his team into the postseason. EDGE: CELTICS
New Orleans is allowing 105.6 points per game in the last eight, nearly 10 points more than the team's season average. EDGE: CELTICS
The Celtics are coming off their first win at San Antonio in 17 years to improve to 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as double-digit underdogs. They won't be in that same situation here but also seem destined to finish with the second-worst record in the NBA, putting them in prime position to snag Texas All-American Kevin Durant. Boston was fined $30K on Sunday for excessive contact with Durant's family, and the players seem to be playing looser, already looking forward to next season. EDGE: CELTICS

Boston has won four of the last five meetings with New Orleans both SU & ATS.
OVER is 7-1-1 in New Orleans' last nine games against Eastern Conference opponents.

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[pm530]

NCAAB
Long Sheet
NIT


Monday, March 19

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MISSISSIPPI (21 - 12) at CLEMSON (22 - 10) - 3/19/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSISSIPPI is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MISSISSIPPI is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
CLEMSON is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in all home games this season.
CLEMSON is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in home lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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SAN DIEGO ST (22 - 10) at SYRACUSE (23 - 10) - 3/19/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 18-38 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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DEPAUL (19 - 13) at KANSAS ST (23 - 11) - 3/19/2007, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DEPAUL is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
KANSAS ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
KANSAS ST is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS ST is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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GEORGIA (19 - 13) at AIR FORCE (24 - 8) - 3/19/2007, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
AIR FORCE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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[pm530]

NCAAB
Short Sheet - NIT

Monday, March 19th

NIT Tournament
Second Round
Bottom Team is Home

Mississippi at Clemson, 7:00 EST
Mississippi: 12-5 ATS off an ATS win
Clemson: 1-8 ATS at home off BB Unders

San Diego State at Syracuse, 7:00 EST
San Diego State: 8-1 Over off a win as an underdog
Syracuse: 2-10 ATS off BB games scoring 75+ points

DePaul at Kansas State, 9:00 EST
DePaul: 8-1 Over in tournament games
Kansas State: 12-3 ATS as a favorite

Georgia at Air Force, 9:00 EST
Georgia: 2-9 ATS as an underdog
Air Force: 12-3 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

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[pm530]

NBA
Long Sheet


Monday, March 19

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SACRAMENTO (29 - 37) at ATLANTA (26 - 41) - 3/19/2007, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 36-22 ATS (+11.8 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs this season.
ATLANTA is 30-44 ATS (-18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 5-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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BOSTON (20 - 46) at NEW ORLEANS (29 - 37) - 3/19/2007, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in non-conference games this season.
BOSTON is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games this season.
BOSTON is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in road games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 4-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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[pm530]

NHL
Long Sheet


Monday, March 19

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PITTSBURGH (41-22-0-9, 91 pts.) at NY RANGERS (35-28-0-9, 79 pts.) - 3/19/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 41-31 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 41-31 ATS (+8.0 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line this season.
PITTSBURGH is 23-9 ATS (+12.4 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
PITTSBURGH is 15-3 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 41-31 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line this season.
PITTSBURGH is 25-10 ATS (+13.1 Units) second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 19-10 ATS (+8.2 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
NY RANGERS are 15-23 ATS (+15.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
NY RANGERS are 43-60 ATS (-56.0 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 49-73 ATS (-70.2 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 150-235 ATS (-135.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 3-12 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY RANGERS are 17-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) as a home underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
NY RANGERS are 17-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) as a home favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
NY RANGERS are 17-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games against the puck line this season.
NY RANGERS are 14-16 ATS (+14.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
NY RANGERS are 90-122 ATS (-92.9 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 5-9 ATS (-7.1 Units) in home games vs. division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 7-7 (+2.6 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 7-7-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.4 Units)




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VANCOUVER (43-23-0-6, 92 pts.) at EDMONTON (30-35-0-7, 67 pts.) - 3/19/2007, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 43-29 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
VANCOUVER is 43-29 ATS (+10.7 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line this season.
VANCOUVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.3 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
VANCOUVER is 14-6 ATS (+20.2 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
VANCOUVER is 41-25 ATS (+68.8 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 43-29 ATS (+10.7 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line this season.
VANCOUVER is 19-17 ATS (+40.4 Units) as a road underdog of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
VANCOUVER is 19-17 ATS (+40.4 Units) as a road favorite of a half goal or even on the puck line this season.
VANCOUVER is 19-17 ATS (+40.4 Units) in road games against the puck line this season.
VANCOUVER is 23-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
EDMONTON is 30-42 ATS (+73.9 Units) in all games this season.
EDMONTON is 30-42 ATS (-16.0 Units) as an underdog or pick on the puck line this season.
EDMONTON is 10-24 ATS (+43.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
EDMONTON is 30-42 ATS (+91.1 Units) as a favorite or even on the puck line this season.
EDMONTON is 6-11 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
EDMONTON is 0-8 ATS (+8.8 Units) in March games this season.
EDMONTON is 11-18 ATS (-12.0 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 8-7 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 8-7-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.3 Units)




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[pm530]

NCAAB
Dunkel Index


MONDAY, MARCH 19

Georgia at Air Force
Air Force ended its slide with a 24-point win over Austin Peay (75-51) in the opening round of the NIT. But beating up on the Ohio Valley rep does not completely erase the fact that the Falcons finished the regular season with four straight losses and failed to make the NCAAs after a 17-1 start. Jeff Bzdelik's team should face a much tougher challenge tonight in Georgia, which advanced with a 10-point win over Fresno State (88-78) behind Levi Stukes' season-high 30 points. Playing a tough SEC schedule, the Bulldogs beat four teams that advanced to the postseason (Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Mississippi State). The Falcons beat only two in the Mountain West (UNLV and San Diego State). Georgia looks like a good underdog pick (+6) in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored straight up by 4. Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+6). Here are all of today's games.

Game 755-756: Mississippi at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 67.427; Clemson 65.391
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+5 1/2)

Game 757-758: San Diego State at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 61.489; Syracuse 74.026
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 7
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-7)

Game 759-760: DePaul at Kansas State
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 66.302; Kansas State 65.943
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 5
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+5)

Game 761-762: Georgia at Air Force
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 66.651; Air Force 62.694
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 4
Vegas Line: Air Force by 6
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+6)

[pm530]

NBA
Dunkel Index


MONDAY, MARCH 19

Boston at New Orleans
The Celtics have put together a decent stretch over their last few games that included a big win at San Antonio (91-85) on Saturday just a day after keeping it close at Dallas (106-101). Throw in a blowout win over Atlanta (109-88) and Boston has won two of its last three in impressive fashion. On the flip side the Hornets are having a tough time finding wins right now. They did win at New York on Friday (92-90), but any momentum from that leaked away in a 125-103 blowout at Washington on Saturday. Overall New Orleans has dropped seven of its last eight. Boston may have looked like an easy win on the Hornets' schedule two weeks ago, but today they look like a good underdog pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored straight up by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+6). Here are all of today's games.

Game 751-752: Sacramento at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.548; Atlanta 117.928
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 198
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Over

Game 753-754: Boston at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 115.790; New Orleans 113.404
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 195 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 6; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+6); Over

[pm530]

NHL
Dunkel Index


MONDAY, MARCH 19

Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
The Rangers put together their most lopsided victory of the season on Saturday when they beat Boston (7-0) to take sole possession of the eighth playoff spot in the East. But New York has had a tough time with the Penguins this month, losing twice while giving up two-goal leads in each game. The last win over the Rangers started a five-game winning streak that has Pittsburgh just two points behind New Jersey in the Atlantic Division. The Penguins look like a good underdog pick in this one according to Dunkel, which has Pittsburgh favored straight up by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

Game 1-2: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 13.550; NY Rangers 12.973
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1 1/2); Under

Game 3-4: Vancouver at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 13.672; Edmonton 10.178
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 3 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-1 1/2); Under

[pm530]

NBA
Short Sheet


Monday, March 19th

Sacramento at Atlanta, 7:05 EST NBATV
Sacramento: 4-14 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Atlanta: 14-4 Over revenging a loss by 10+ points

Boston at New Orleans, 8:05 EST
Boston: 14-1 ATS away off an Under
New Orleans: 6-16 ATS in March

.