Sunday Trends and Indexes 03/18

[pm530]

NCAAB
Write up


Sunday, March 18

NCAA Second Round
Sunday

Tennessee, Virginia both jogged in first round vs inferior foes. Underdogs now 11-4 vs spread in last 15 second round games involving 4-5 seeds. Cavaliers still just 4-4 in last eight games; but they're 7-2 vs spread as underdog this season. Vols are 5-1 in last six; they're 7-4 as favorite outside of SEC. Both teams are fast-paced (Vols 19, UVa 80); interesting to see if Vols continue hot shooting-- they made 14-27 from arc Friday. Virginia is 7-10 if they score less than 80, 12-0 if they score 80+ points.

Florida has indeed turned it on in March, winning all five of its games, by 13,17,21,21,43 points; they beat only Big 11 foe they faced this season (Ohio State, 86-60) in December. Purdue is 8-2 vs spread in its last ten games; they're 5-6-1 vs spread as a dog this season. Spunky Boilers are 12-3 outside Big 11; in their last five games, they've allowed average of just 55.6 ppg. They held Arizona to 41.2% from floor while forcing 17 turnovers in 72-63 win Friday. Florida outscored Jackson State 71-34 in 2nd half.

Wisconsin was down 40-22 vs Corpus Christi Friday, before it rallied for win; they're 9-2 in last 11 games, but scored 55 or less points in four of last seven games, as they struggle without its 3rd-leading scorer, Butch, who has resumed practice, but not sure if he'll play here. UNLV is more athletic than Badgers; they are 7-1 vs spread during 8-game win streak, and are 7-2 against spread as dog this season. Rebels survived 31.7% shooting in win vs Georgia Tech. Both teams play slower-paced games.

Southern Illinois beat Virginia Tech 69-64 down in Orlando last November (-1), in fifth-place game of Old Spice Classic;

Over last three years, 2-seeds are just 4-8 vs spread in second round games. Georgetown is on roll, winning 16 of last 17 and last five in row. Neither team forces turnovers or likes fast pace; BC is just 3-5 in last eight games after beating Texas Tech in its first round game. These teams are former Big East rivals; BC is 0-1 vs Big East this year, losing 73-64 to Providence. Hoyas are 0-1 vs ACC, losing 61-52 at Duke- that was before current roll. BC is 30th in country in % of points scored on foul shots; we'll see if that hurts them here, as refs call less fouls in NCAAs.

VCU won seven games in row, 20 of last 22 games; the former Rutgers coach Wenzel called Rams best pressing team he has seen this season. VCU hit 9-16 treys in come-from-behind win vs Duke, now they need to beat better team, Pitt, who crushed Wright State Thursday, making 10-21 treys when Raiders tried to sag down and double Gray in post. VCU has better figures on forcing turnovers and protecting ball; that has been a good indicator for second round upsets last three years. Problem is, #11 seeds are 4-15 vs spread in second round last twenty yrs.

UCLA crushed Weber State in first round, making 10-19 treys but only 6-9 from foul line; underdg is 6-4 vs spread in second round 2-7 matchups over last four years. Both these teams lost first round conference tourney game. Indiana held Gonzaga to 33.9% from floor Thursday. Sampson was 3-2 in second round games at Oklahoma; he covered last three tries as tourney dog (all in '99). Bruins are 2-5 vs spread in last seven tries as a fave. Hoosiers are 3-3-1 vs spread as an underdog this season.

Izzo won his last six second round games, winning last four by double digit margins, but he is without Ibok (elbow) here. State beat Marquette so easily primarily because McNeal didn't play for Eagles. Carolina shot 64% from floor vs outmanned EKU in first round; Carolina is 2-4 in last six tries in this round. MSU is 0-2 vs ACC this season, scoring 59 ppg in losses to Boston College, Maryland. UNC beat Big 11's Ohio State back in fall. UNC beat Spartans 87-71 in '05 national semifinals (-5).

[rocko]

hope IT OK TO POST THESE HERE JUST FOUND THEM THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE HELPFUL THANKS FOR AL;L U GUYS DO IN HERE FROM DAY TO DAY I FOR ONE LOOK AT THESE EVERYDAY GLLLLLLL
GET-R-DON PEACE

NBA (Sunday) Play Over NBA home teams when the total is 190 to 199.5 points off a game in which they covered against the spread and the team lost the game straight up as an underdog during the month of March.
(47-18 Over since 1996.) (72.3%) PLAY: Seattle / Portland OVER 196


CBB / NCAA RD-2 (Sunday) Play Under CBB neutral court teams when the total is 129.5 or less after one or more consecutive overs and in a game involving teams who outscore their opponents by 8+ points per game in the 2nd half of the season.
(32-7 Under since 1997.) (82.1%) PLAY: UNLV / Wisconsin UNDER 126

[pm530]

Thanks Rocko!

Good Luck today!!

[rocko]

NBA (Sunday): Play Over NBA team after having won at least 8 of their last 10 games straight up and have a losing record on the season.
(55-23 Over since 1996.) (70.5%) PLAY: Houston / Philadelphia OVER 186.5

[Udog]

Hey, rocko!

Thanks! I always tail these 70%ers. They hit pretty well. I play them for 1/2 of whatever my bet amount is for any given day. Where they go wrong most, it seems, is on "unders".

[Udog]

rocko,

I said I always tail them. I tail them if I haven't picked against them. Like I did, last night, on UCLA! LOL!

[pm530]

NBA
Write-up


Sunday, March 18

Hot Teams
-- Toronto won four of its last five games.
-- Detroit won, covered last five games, including 105-83 win at Phoenix Friday. Dallas is 18-2 in last 20 games, 0-3 vs spread in last three.
-- Miami won its last nine games (8-1 vs spread).
-- Houston won five of its last six games. 76ers are 8-2 in their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost three of last four games, but are 11-2 vs spread in last game following their last thirteen losses.
-- Orlando is 3-11 in its last fourteen games.
-- Clippers lost five of their last six games. Nets lost six of their last eight games.
-- Portland lost seven of its last nine games. Seattle lost five in a row, by combined total of 14 points.
-- Lakers lost seven of their last eight games. Minnesota is 3-9 in its last dozen games.

Series Records
-- Raptors are 2-0 vs Knicks this season: 103-100/104-94.
-- Pistons won 92-82 in Dallas Dec 7th.
-- Orlando is 2-0 vs Miami this season: 97-68/107-104.
-- Nets lost 102-101 at the Clippers Jan 25 (+7).
-- 76ers lost 105-84 in Houston Jan 29 (+9).
-- Blazers, Sonics split pair of games in Seattle this season.
-- Lakers are 2-1 vs Minnesota this year: 111-94/95-88/107-117

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Orlando is 2-6 vs spread last eight times they played the nite or day before.
-- Seattle is 5-7 vs spread last 12 times they played nite before.

Totals
-- Under is 9-3 in Knicks' last twelve games.
-- Last three Dallas games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Miami games.
-- Under is 7-3-2 in last dozen Clipper games.
-- Five of last six Houston games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Seattle games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Minnesota road games went over total.

[pm530]

NHL
Write up

Sunday, March 18

Hot Teams
-- Tampa Bay lost last two games, both by 3-2 scores.
-- Atlanta won seven of its last nine games. Buffalo won four of its last five road games.
-- Penguins won four in row, six of its last seven games. Ottawa won last three games, allowing two goals in each.
-- Anaheim won six of its last seven games.
-- Colorado won seven of its last eight games. Sharks won last four games, allowing two goals.
-- Stars won four of their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Washington lost nine of its last ten games.
-- Kings are 1-7 in game after their last eight wins.
-- Phoenix lost seven of its last eight games.

Series Records
-- Lightning are 5-1 vs Washington this year (4 wins by a goal).
-- Sabres are 2-1 vs Thrashers this season: 4-1/4-3/4-5.
-- Penguins, Senators split pair in Ottawa this season.
-- Road team is 5-2 in LA-Anaheim games this season.
-- Sharks are 2-1 vs Colorado this season: 3-1/4-3/2-5.
-- Visitor is 4-1 in Dallas-Phoenix games this season, with Stars 4-1 in those five games.

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Senators won last five times they played day/night before.
-- Kings are 3-6 on road if they played night before.
-- Colorado is 4-5 if they played night before; all nine of those games were played on road.
-- Dallas won six of last seven if they played night before.

Totals
-- Last four Lightning games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2-2 in last ten Atlanta games.
-- Over is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Ottawa games.
-- Over is 3-0-1 in last four Los Angeles games.
-- Four of last five Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Dallas games.

[Udog]

Rats! I forgot to say the trends crew is taking:

Tennessee-1.5 first half
Tennessee-3
USC+2

[Pitt37]

Thanks!!!