Thursday Trends and Indexes 03/15

[pm530]

NCAAB
Write up
NCAA First Round

Friday, March 16

Virginia's excellent backcourt gets tested by Jamar Wilson, who was America East Player of Year last two years; Cavaliers lost last four games away from home, are 3-4 in its last seven games SU, and are no lock here vs an Albany squad that led UConn by 11 with 11:30 left in first round in '06. #4 seed in South is 2-5 vs spread in last seven first round tilts. Virginia is 0-4 vs spread as non-conference favorite this season.

[pm530]

NBA
Write-up


Thursday, March 15

Hot Teams
-- Spurs won their last thirteen games (11-2 vs spread).
-- Miami won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread). Nets scored 112.5 ppg in last two games, winning both.
-- Denver won last two games, scoring 110 ppg, but is 5-6 in its last eleven home games.

Cold Teams
-- Bucks lost four of last five games, fired coach Tuesday.
-- Lakers lost their last six games (1-5 vs spread).

Series Records
-- Bucks upset Spurs 114-107 in Alamo Dec 26 (+9).
-- Miami is 2-1 vs Nets this season: 91-85/113-106/81-91.
-- Nuggets lost 123-104 at Staples Jan 5 (+6).

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Miami is 4-8-1 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- Lakers are 10-5 vs spread on front end of back/back.

Totals
-- Under is 6-0-1 in Spurs' last seven games.
-- Under is 6-2 in Miami's last eight games.
-- Under is 7-2 in Lakers' last nine away games.

[pm530]

NHL
Write up


Thursday, March 15

Hot Teams
-- Thrashers won six of their last seven games.
-- Devils won seven of their last eight road games.
-- Ottawa won seven of its last eight home games.
-- Florida is 6-2 in its last eight games.
-- Dallas won last three games, allowing five goals.
-- Minnesota won last four games, allowing six goals.
-- San Jose won four of its last five games.
-- Blackhawks won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Bruins lost three of last four games. Washington lost eight in row, 13 of last 14 games.
-- Flyers lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Carolina is 2-7 in game following its last nine wins.
-- Islanders lost three of their last four games.
-- Sabres lost last four games, outscored 16-9.
-- Flames lost three of their last four games.
-- Oilers lost last eight games, scoring total of six goals.
-- Vancouver lost last two games; they scored total of six goals in their last three. Blues lost four of last five games, allowing nineteen goals.
-- Coyotes, Kings both lost five of their last six games.

Series Records
-- Bruins are 3-0 vs Washington this year, all by 3-2 scores.
-- Flyers are 3-0 vs Atlanta this season: 5-2/2-1/3-2.
-- Devils are 2-0 vs Carolina this season: 3-2/4-0.
-- Ottawa is 2-0 vs Islanders this season: 4-2/2-0.
-- Home side is 3-0 in Buffalo-Florida games.
-- Home side won all three Calgary-Dallas games.
-- Minnesota is 3-2 against Edmonton so far this season.
-- Canucks won two of three against the Blues this season.
-- San Jose is 4-2 against Phoenix this year, 2-1 in each building.
-- Chicago is 2-0 vs Kings this season: 3-0/3-2.

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Washington is 3-12 on front end of back/back.
-- Atlanta is 3-9 on front end of back/back.
-- Carolina is 5-8 if they played the night before.
-- Buffalo is 10-4 on front end of back/backs.
-- Calgary is 5-3 if they played the night before.
-- Sharks are 4-6 on front end of back/back.
-- Chicago is 1-5 on front end of last six back/backs.

Totals
-- Five of last six Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Philadelphia games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 11-2 in last thirteen Carolina games.
-- Over is 9-2-1 in last twelve Ottawa games.
-- Over is 8-3 in last eleven Buffalo games.
-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Calgary games.
-- Under is 6-0-2 in last eight Edmonton games.
-- Over is 10-4 in last fourteen St Louis games.
-- Five of last six San Jose games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Chicago games went over the total.

[pm530]

NCAAB
Dunkel Index

Update
Dunkel write-up for Thursday.
Data for "play-in" game winner to be played Friday.

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THURSDAY, MARCH 15

Old Dominion vs. Butler
Butler was anointed the Cinderella team of the tournament way back in November when the Bulldogs pulled off an impressive collection of upsets against the likes of Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee and Gonzaga. But down the stretch that image began to tarnish with a pair of losses to Horizon rival Wright State (the last costing the Bulldogs the conference championship) and setbacks against Loyola-Chicago and Southern Illinois. Suddenly Butler has gone from the attacker to the attacked and faces a tough opening-round matchup against Old Dominion today. ODU was on the bubble after losing to George Mason in the CAA semifinals, but got in thanks largely to a November win at Georgetown and a pair of wins over Drexel. The Monarchs rank in the top 40 in scoring defense and turnovers per game, and should bring a defensive intensity that can cause problems for a Butler team that has slipped over the past few weeks. Old Dominion looks like a good underdog pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Monarchs favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (+1).

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FRIDAY, MARCH 16

Game 631-632: Niagara vs. Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 54.483; Kansas 82.201
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 27 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-18 1/2)

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[pm530]

NCAAB
Dunkel Index

UPDATE
NIT Games

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THURSDAY, MARCH 15

Game 839-840: Michigan at Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 64.815; Florida State 69.293
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+7)

Game 841-842: Massachusetts at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 61.526; West Virginia 73.673
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 12
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 6
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-6)

[pm530]

NBA
Dunkel


THURSDAY, MARCH 15

Miami at New Jersey
If there has been a silver lining to Dwyane Wade's injury, it's that it's forced the rest of the Heat to step up. Which is exactly what has been happening as Miami comes into the contest with a season-high seven-game winning streak, including a perfect 6-0 homestand. In their last game, the Heat erased a 17-point second half deficit against a tough Utah team en route to an 88-86 win. The Nets are playing better now that Richard Jefferson is getting back to full speed. But their modest two-game winning streak has come against Memphis and New Orleans. In the three games prior to that (against higher-rated San Antonio, Houston and Dallas), New Jersey had lost by an average margin of 16.66 points. The streaking Heat look like a good underdog pick (+2) in this one according to Dunkel, which has Miami favored straight up by 7. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2). Here are all of today's games.

Game 801-802: Miami at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 122.837; New Jersey 115.999
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 7; 192 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2); Over

Game 803-804: San Antonio at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 130.191; Milwaukee 116.534
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 13 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Under

Game 805-806: LA Lakers at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 111.705; Denver 122.925
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 11; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4; 212
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4); Under

[pm530]

NHL
Dunkel


THURSDAY, MARCH 15

Buffalo at Florida
Buffalo comes into the contest with a season-high four-game losing streak in which the Sabres have gone 0-for-11 on ****** after picking up at least one goal in each of their previous seven games. Despite a 3-1 loss to Carolina on Tuesday, the Panthers have won six of their last eight and have also beaten Buffalo at home in their last three meetings. Florida looks like a good home underdog pick in this one according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored straight up by 1. Dunkel Pick: Florida (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

Game 1-2: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 13.199; Philadelphia 11.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 3-4: Washington at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 10.325; Boston 12.559
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 5-6: New Jersey at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.498; Carolina 12.091
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+1 1/2); Under

Game 7-8: NY Islanders at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.553; Ottawa 13.284
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 9-10: Buffalo at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.325; Florida 13.313
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 6
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+1 1/2); Over

Game 11-12: Calgary at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.442; Dallas 12.876
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+1 1/2); Over

Game 13-14: Minnesota at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 13.887; Edmonton 10.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1 1/2); Under

Game 15-16: San Jose at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 13.624; Phoenix 11.385
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-1 1/2); Over

Game 17-18: St. Louis at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.161; Vancouver 13.507
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 5
Dunkel Pick: Neutral; Over

Game 19-20: Chicago at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.424; Los Angeles 12.188
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Over

[Udog]

NCAAB
Additional


CBB / NCAA RD-1 (Thursday): Play Under CBB neutral court teams when the total is 120 to 129.5 points after winning 4 of their last 5 games straight up and now playing in an NCAA tournament game.
(30-5 Under last 3 seasons.) (86%) PLAY: Wright State / Pittsburgh UNDER 120



CBB / NCAA RD-1 (Thursday): Play Under CBB neutral court teams when the total is 130 to 139.5 points in a game involving teams that average <=55 shots per game after 15+ games.
(82-34 Under since 1997.) (70.7%) (16-2 Under last 18) PLAY: Texas Tech / Boston College UNDER 136.5 (12:25 est)


Game: (#823) Central Connecticut vs (#824) Ohio State 7:10 est.
System: "Play On" any NCAA Round 1 Underdog if they won their Conference Tournament but failed to win against the spread in their Championship Game. (25-8-1 ATS)
Selection: (#823) Central Connecticut +21

[pm530]

NCAAB
Long Sheet
NIT Games


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Thursday, March 15

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MICHIGAN (22 - 12) at FLORIDA ST (21 - 12) - 3/15/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.
MICHIGAN is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MASSACHUSETTS (24 - 8) at W VIRGINIA (22 - 9) - 3/15/2007, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
W VIRGINIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
W VIRGINIA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NBA
Long Sheet


Thursday. March 15


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MIAMI (34 - 29) at NEW JERSEY (30 - 35) - 3/15/2007, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
MIAMI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 11-8 against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 14-5 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
12 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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SAN ANTONIO (46 - 18) at MILWAUKEE (23 - 41) - 3/15/2007, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 97-64 ATS (+26.6 Units) in March games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 118-155 ATS (-52.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 3-2 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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LA LAKERS (33 - 31) at DENVER (31 - 31) - 3/15/2007, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 77-53 ATS (+18.7 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
DENVER is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 5-3 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet


Thursday, March 15th

Miami at New Jersey, 8:05 EST TNT
Miami: 24-12 ATS as an underdog
New Jersey: 8-1 Over at home vs. Miami

San Antonio at Milwaukee, 8:05 EST
San Antonio: 18-5 Under revenging a home loss
Milwaukee: 17-5 ATS off a loss by 15+ points

LA Lakers at Denver, 10:35 EST TNT
LA Lakers: 21-5 Over after playing a game as a home underdog
Denver: 15-5 Over as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet


Thursday, March 15th

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 7:05 EST
Atlanta: 1-7 SU after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
Philadelphia: 6-1 SU vs. Atlanta

Washington at Boston, 7:05 EST
Washington: 8-26 SU revenging a loss by 1 goal
Boston: 10-4 SU off a combined score of 9+ goals

New Jersey at Carolina, 7:35 EST
New Jersey: 10-1 SU away off a division game
Carolina: 8-14 SU off a win by 2+ goals

NY Islanders at Ottawa, 7:35 EST
NY Islanders: 5-30 SU vs. Ottawa
Ottawa: 14-6 SU as a home favorite of -200 or higher

Buffalo at Florida, 7:35 EST
Buffalo: 0-10 SU away of 4+ losses
Florida: 14-7 SU in March

Calgary at Dallas, 8:35 EST
Calgary: 1-7 SU away off a road loss by 1 goal
Dallas: 28-14 SU off an Under

Minnesota at Edmonton, 9:05 EST
Minnesota: 13-6 SU away in the second half of the season
Edmonton: 5-13 SU off a loss by 3+ goals

San Jose at Phoenix, 10:05 EST
San Jose: 27-9 SU off a combined score of 8+ goals
Phoenix: 4-16 SU at home after losing 3 of their last 4 games

St. Louis at Vancouver, 10:05 EST
St. Louis: 8-18 SU after allowing 4+ goals
Vancouver: 21-10 SU in the second half of the season

Chicago at Los Angeles, 10:35 EST
Chicago: 8-3 SU off BB games allowing 5+ goals
Los Angeles: 0-7 SU off a win by 4+ goals

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Dennis14072]

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[Pitt37]

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