Wednesday Trends and Indexes 03/14

[Udog]

NBA
Long Sheet


Wednesday, March, 14


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WASHINGTON (34 - 28) at INDIANA (29 - 34) - 3/14/2007, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 100-133 ATS (-46.3 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
INDIANA is 211-159 ATS (+36.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
INDIANA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 4-4 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 5-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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NEW YORK (29 - 34) at TORONTO (35 - 29) - 3/14/2007, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 37-26 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW YORK is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 7-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 7-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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SACRAMENTO (28 - 35) at CHARLOTTE (23 - 41) - 3/14/2007, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SACRAMENTO is 32-50 ATS (-23.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 3-2 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 3-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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UTAH (43 - 20) at ORLANDO (29 - 36) - 3/14/2007, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 41-58 ATS (-22.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 184-234 ATS (-73.4 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
ORLANDO is 38-58 ATS (-25.8 Units) second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 4-0 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 4-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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CHICAGO (38 - 28) at PHILADELPHIA (25 - 39) - 3/14/2007, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
CHICAGO is 37-24 ATS (+10.6 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 67-49 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-4 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-4 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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ATLANTA (26 - 39) at BOSTON (18 - 45) - 3/14/2007, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 99-131 ATS (-45.1 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs this season.
ATLANTA is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games this season.
BOSTON is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games in March games since 1996.
BOSTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 5-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 5-4 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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CLEVELAND (39 - 25) at MEMPHIS (16 - 49) - 3/14/2007, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MEMPHIS is 100-71 ATS (+21.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
CLEVELAND is 85-70 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) second half of the season this season.
CLEVELAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in non-conference games this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.
CLEVELAND is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 4-1 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons



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LA CLIPPERS (29 - 34) at HOUSTON (39 - 25) - 3/14/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 24-38 ATS (-17.8 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in road games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 6-3 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons



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PHOENIX (49 - 14) at DALLAS (52 - 10) - 3/14/2007, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 88-73 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 120-86 ATS (+25.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.
PHOENIX is 89-73 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games this season.
PHOENIX is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHOENIX is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 11-10 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 11-10 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
12 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons



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DETROIT (40 - 22) at PORTLAND (26 - 37) - 3/14/2007, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PORTLAND is 65-80 ATS (-23.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 21-34 ATS (-16.4 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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[pm530]

NCAAB
Short Sheet


Wednesday, March 14th

NIT Tournament
First Round
Bottom Team is Home

East Tenn State at Clemson, 6:00 EST ESPNU
East Tenn State: 12-1 ATS in March
Clemson: 1-5 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less

South Alabama at Syracuse, 7:00 EST ESPN
South Alabama: 14-5 ATS away off a conference game
Syracuse: 2-9 ATS off BB games scoring 75+ points

Fresno State at Georgia, 7:00 EST ESPN2
Fresno State: 0-7 ATS away off a conference loss
Georgia: 13-4 ATS at home after having 9 or less assists

Providence at Bradley, 8:00 EST
Providence: 0-7 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
Bradley: 7-0 ATS vs. Big East opponents

(TC) Hofstra at DePaul, 8:30 EST
Hofstra: 18-8 ATS off an ATS loss
DePaul: 4-11 ATS off 4+ games committing 14 or less turnovers

Vermont at Kansas State, 8:00 EST ESPNU
Vermont: 7-0 Under playing their second game in seven days
Kansas State: 12-2 ATS as a favorite

Appalachian State at Mississippi, 8:00 EST
Appalachian State: 12-2 ATS off an Over
Mississippi: 2-11 ATS after having 9 or less assists

San Diego State at Missouri State, 10:00 EST ESPNU
San Diego State: 17-7 Over in road games
Missouri State: 8-1 ATS off a loss by 10+ points

Austin Peay at Air Force, 11:00 EST ESPN2
Austin Peay: 3-11 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Air Force: 24-11 ATS off BB conference losses

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[pm530]

NBA
Short Sheet


Wednesday, March 14th

Washington at Indiana, 7:05 EST
Washington: 19-4 Under off a division loss by 3 points or less
Indiana: 21-9 ATS after a combined score of 175 points or less

New York at Toronto, 7:05 EST
New York: 3-11 ATS after a win by 6 points or less
Toronto: 24-9 ATS off a road game

Sacramento at Charlotte, 7:05 EST
Sacramento: 4-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
Charlotte: 15-7 ATS playing with same season revenge

Utah at Orlando, 7:05 EST
Utah: 7-0 Over after a loss by 6 points or less
Orlando: 26-10 Over off a DD loss

Chicago at Philadelphia, 7:05 EST WGN
Chicago: 4-12 ATS Away off an Under
Philadelphia: 15-7 ATS off a DD loss

Atlanta at Boston, 7:35 EST
Atlanta: 10-2 Over off BB ATS wins
Boston: 4-16 ATS at home off a SU loss

Cleveland at Memphis, 8:05 EST
Cleveland: 16-3 ATS 2nd half of season
Memphis: 17-32 ATS off a home loss

LA Clippers at Houston, 8:30 EST
LA Clippers: 5-20 ATS as an underdog
Houston: 12-2 ATS off a road loss

Phoenix at Dallas, 9:05 EST ESPN
Phoenix: 9-0 ATS Away playing with revenge
Dallas: 11-2 Over off a DD road loss

Detroit at Portland, 9:05 EST
Detroit: 0-8 ATS off 3+ ATS wins
Portland: 12-3 ATS at home off an ATS win

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[pm530]

NHL
Short Sheet


Wednesday, March 14th

Nashville at Detroit, 7:30 EST
Nashville: 7-22 SU Away off a SU loss
Detroit: 11-0 SU at home playing their 3rd game in 5 days

Pittsburgh at New Jersey, 7:30 EST
Pittsburgh: 7-0 Over Away off a home win scoring 4+ goals
New Jersey: 37-15 SU after scoring 3+ goals BB games

Calgary at Colorado, 9:00 EST
Calgary: 5-15 SU as a road favorite
Colorado: 13-4 SU off a road loss

Columbus at Anaheim, 10:00 EST
Columbus: 8-46 SU Away off a division game
Anaheim: 25-10 SU revenging a 1-goal loss

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[pm530]

NCAAB
Dunkel Index
(Write-up for Wednesday)

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 14

South Alabama at Syracuse
The Orange were the highest-rated team in the Index not to make the NCAAs and should be justifiably annoyed at being left out of the big dance. Under those conditions, focus could be a problem for Jim Boeheim's team, but South Alabama should not. The Jaguars struggled in the Sun Belt down the stretch and finished with four straight losses to such teams as Florida International and Florida Atlantic. Going on the road to Syracuse is an imposing challenge and the Orange should have enough to cover the Vegas line (-13) according to Dunkel, which has Syracuse favored by 24. Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-13).

[pm530]

NBA
Added trends


Wednesday, March 14

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at Toronto Raptors by 6.5 New York Knicks O/U 199.0
Toronto Raptors are 46-26-1 ATS After 1 Unders (All Lines)
Toronto Raptors are 48-21-3 ATS After 1 Away (All Lines)
New York Knicks are 7-1-0 O/U After 1 Wins (6 -> 7.5)
New York Knicks are 11-3-0 O/U After 1 ATS Wins (6 -> 7.5)
New York Knicks are 9-2-0 ATS After 1 Unders (6 -> 7.5)



at Charlotte Bobcats by PK Sacramento Kings O/U 209.0
Charlotte Bobcats are 5-0-0 O/U After 1 Wins (PK -> 1.5)



Utah Jazz by 2.5 at Orlando Magic O/U 194.0
Utah Jazz are 44-27-0 O/U As Away (All Lines)
Utah Jazz are 11-2-0 O/U After 1 ATS Loss (2 -> 3.5)



at Boston Celtics by 4.0 Atlanta Hawks O/U 190.0
Boston Celtics are 26-43-3 ATS As Home (All Lines)
Boston Celtics are 6-16-1 ATS As Home (4 -> 5.5)
Boston Celtics are 2-11-1 ATS After 1 Overs (4 -> 5.5)
Atlanta Hawks are 5-0-0 O/U After 4 Home (All Lines)



Cleveland Cavaliers by 4.0 at Memphis Grizzlies O/U 202.5
Cleveland Cavaliers are 12-3-0 ATS After 1 ATS Loss (4 -> 5.5)
Cleveland Cavaliers are 23-10-1 ATS After 2 Home (All Lines)
Memphis Grizzlies are 6-0-0 O/U After 3 Overs (4 -> 5.5)
Memphis Grizzlies are 15-2-1 ATS After 1 Home (4 -> 5.5)



at Houston Rockets by 11.0 Los Angeles (Cl) Clippers O/U 178.5
Houston Rockets are 25-45-3 ATS As Home (All Lines)
Los Angeles (Cl) Clippers are 21-38-1 ATS As Dog (All Lines)



at Dallas Mavericks by 4.0 Phoenix Suns O/U 207.5
Dallas Mavericks are 26-46-2 O/U After 1 Overs (All Lines)
Phoenix Suns are 31-11-0 O/U All Games (4 -> 5.5)
Phoenix Suns are 11-3-0 O/U As Dog (4 -> 5.5)
Phoenix Suns are 20-8-0 O/U As Away (4 -> 5.5)
Phoenix Suns are 20-7-0 O/U After 1 ATS Wins (4 -> 5.5)


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NBA (Wednesday): Play On NBA teams when the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss where their oponent scored 100+ points now coming in off a home game where both teams scored 100+ points.
(62-25 ATS last 5 seasons.) (71.3%) PLAY: Charlotte -Pk

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[pm530]

NCAAB
Added trends


Wednesday, March 14

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CBB (Wednesday): Play Under CBB teams when the total is 140 to 149.5 points after having won 12+ of their last 15 games now playing in a first round tournament game.
(49-18 Under since 1997.) (73.1%) PLAY: E. Tennessee State / Clemson UNDER 140.5

CBB / NIT-RD1 (Wednesday): Play Under CBB road teams after losing against the spread by 30+ points in their last three games in a game where both teams have a winning percentage of 60% to 80% on the season.
(41-9 Under since 1997.) (82%) PLAY: South Alabama / Syracuse UNDER 142.5

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[pm530]

NBA
Tips and trends
Additional games added


Wednesday, March 14

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Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers (7 PM ET)
Indiana blew a 14-point third-quarter lead in Tuesday's 86-81 loss to Minnesota for its 10th consecutive defeat. The losing streak is the Pacers' longest since they matched a franchise record with 12 straight losses from January 26-February 23, 1989. EDGE: WIZARDS
The Pacers have been outscored by an average of 14.4 points during their skid and have failed to score 100 points in any of the defeats. EDGE: WIZARDS & UNDER

The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites.
The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on zero days rest.



Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies (8 PM ET)
Cleveland star LeBron James, averaging 27.4 points per game, is scheduled to travel with the team and will be re-evaluated before Wednesday's game, one day after missing a 124-100 win over Sacramento.
The Cavaliers improved to 3-0 this season when James misses a game, with an average margin of victory at 19.7 points. EDGE: CAVS
Memphis has lost four in a row at FedEx Forum but has won five of its last six home meetings against Cleveland. SLIGHT EDGE: GRIZZLIES

The Cavaliers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games overall.



Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets (8:30 PM ET)
Against Phoenix on Monday, Houston center Yao Ming shot just 1-for-9 from the floor in a 103-82 loss - the Rockets' most lopsided defeat of the season with him in the lineup. EDGE: CLIPPERS
Houston has split its two previous meetings with Los Angeles this season, with the road team winning each time. EDGE: CLIPPERS
The Clippers are trying to avoid a five-game losing streak, with all of the losses coming by nine points or more. BIG EDGE: ROCKETS

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.



Detroit Pistons at Portland Trail Blazers (10 PM ET)
With a 21-10 road record, the Pistons are the only team in the East with more than 14 wins away from home. EDGE: PISTONS
NBA insiders believe Detroit is in a tough situational spot tonight - playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road with Phoenix on the horizon. EDGE: BLAZERS

The Trailblazers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.
The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

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[pm530]

NCAAB
Bracket-picking Tips


Bracket-picking Help Articles

Pick at least one No. 3 or No. 4 seed to lose: Only three times in the last 22 seasons has a No. 3 or 4 seed not gone down in the first round. It happened twice in 2006 with both Kansas and Iowa losing (as Boston College needed two overtimes to survive as well). If a top seed is going to lose, it might be from the Big 12, which has seen four top four teams go down since 2001 — Kansas in 2005 (as a No. 3) and 2006 (as a No. 4), and No. 4 Oklahoma and No. 2 Iowa State in 2001. So maybe Texas A&M and Texas aren't the locks that everybody thought.

Big East teams are almost immune — Villanova in 1995 and Syracuse in 2005 were the only 3 or 4 from the conference to be upset since 1992 and both went to overtime before succumbing (three in Villanova's case). This means Wright State will have a tough time knocking out Pittsburgh.

Pick the No. 10 seeds: No. 10 seeds aren't supposed to beat the No. 7, but since seeding began in 1979, at least one No. 10 has beaten a No. 7 every season except for 1993 and 1985. Wait, it gets better. At least two No. 10 seeds have beaten No. 7's in 10 of the last 13 seasons. In 1999, the No. 10's had a clean sweep.

Pick Kentucky, Georgetown, Boston College and North Carolina: It hasn't been a stellar year for the Kentucky, but do at least pick the Wildcats to win one round. They've won 16 straight first-rounders. The best team in this regard until recently was Kansas. Before Bucknell got them, the Jayhawks hadn't lost in the first round since 1975. Boston College has only lost once in the first round since 1968 (12-1). Georgetown is almost as good, going 16-1 since 1981.

Roy Williams is perfect in debut games so the Tar Heels are a lock to win round one.


Don't pick the Mountain West schools: BYU and UNLV are two of the better Mountain West teams the last few seasons, but neither has won an NCAA game since 1993.

Don't pick Winthrop, Central Connecticut State or Eastern Kentucky : None of these conferences these teams represent has won a first-round game since 1989. Both Winthrop and Eastern Kentucky are 0-6 all time in the NCAAs.

Now on to the important stuff: To win the whole thing:

Don't take anyone seeded No. 9 or below: No. 8 Villanova in 1985 is the lowest-seeded team to win the national championship since seeds were introduced in 1979. That's half the field eliminated right there.

Don't pick first-time coaches: Steve Fisher of Michigan is the only coach since 1963 to win the title in his first NCAA appearance as a head coach. This spells doom for Washington State and Tony Bennett and BYU and Dave Rose. Also, Tubby Smith was the only other coach besides Fisher since 1961 to lead a team to the title in his first season at a school. That's double-trouble for Bennett who is in his debut season with the Cougars as well.

Come from a power conference: Since the NCAA allowed more than two teams from each conference to compete, the champion has come from a conference that has sent at least three teams to the field — even the Big West had three when UNLV won in 1990. Goodbye, Memphis, Southern Illinois, Butler, UNLV and Nevada.

Eliminate the No. 5 seeds: Goodbye to USC, Tennessee and Virginia Tech. Only four No. 5s have even reached the Final Four. Florida in 2000 and Indiana in 2002 were the only ones to reach the title game.

Don't lose early the previous season: Only three title-winning schools since 1988 failed to advance at least two rounds in the previous year's tournament (provided the team was in the field). This eliminates North Carolina, Ohio State, Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Indiana, Arizona, Kentucky and Marquette.

Don't get blown out:: Of the last 12 teams to win the tournament, only Maryland lost a regular-season game by more than 17 points. So go ahead and eliminate Oregon, Texas, Virginia, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt and Boston College. All lost at least once by 18 or more this season.

Don't reach the final, then lose: Kentucky in 1998 is the only team in the last 16 years to make the championship game, lose, then return to win it all the next season. This makes UCLA an extremely unlikely choice.

Don't win the previous year: Duke in 1992 is the only team to repeat as champion since UCLA in 1975 — the pressure will eventually get to Florida.

In case you're keeping track, we're left with four teams, conveniently one from each region — Maryland, Georgetown, Louisville and Duke. Note, this is not our Final Four — we're just trying to determine a champion here.

Be ranked high to start the season: Every winner since 1986 except for Syracuse and Florida has been ranked No. 19 or higher in the Associated Press preseason poll. Louisville was unranked at the beginning of the season, so the Cardinals won't win. Maryland didn't even get a vote so the Terps fall by the wayside as well.

That leaves only two schools that have passed all nine of our criteria — Duke and Georgetown. At this point we'll throw the numbers out the window and use common sense, and common sense says pick Georgetown as your 2007 tournament champion.


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11 Bracket Picking Rules You Shouldnt Break!

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats span from 1985 (the year the tournament expanded to 64 teams) to present.

1st Round:

* Be very selective picking any team below a #12 seed.
#16 seeds are 0 for 88. #15 seeds are 4 for 88. #13 and #14 seeds are less than 19% combined.

* Dont be shy about picking upsets when #12 through #9 seeds are involved
Look especially hard at picking #12 seeds; they have won 11 of 24 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last six years. #9 seeds have a winning record vs. #8 seeds.

2nd Round:
* Advance #1 seeds almost automatically they win their first two games 86% of the time.

* Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One.
They win almost half the time in Round Two (14 of 29 for #12 seeds; 17 of 35 for #10 seeds).

* Rarely pick a #13 seed or lower to win in Round Two.
Only 9% of teams advancing past Round Two are seeded that low.

Sweet 16:
* Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8
No reason to buck the math: 70% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (thats a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!

* Advance no team lower than a #12 seed into the Elite 8
NOT ONE has ever advanced!

Elite Eight:
* Advance ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four.
Amazingly, exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 18 of the last 22 years.

* Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four.
Only 2 of 88 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8.

Final Four:
* Advance NO team below a 6th seed to the Championship game.
Not a single one has made it in the last 21 years.

Championship Game:
* Pick a #4 seed or higher to win it all.
For 18 straight years the champion has been a 4 seed or higher!


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5 Team Factors That Matter the Most



#1) Margin of Victory
Statistically speaking, this factor matters twice as much as the second most important factor so ignore at your own risk. Margin of victory is simply the average number of points that a team wins or loses by. Why is this important? Because with only 30 or so games a year, getting lucky in even a handful of close games can make a team look much better record-wise than it truly is. But if a team consistently wins by large margins, you can be more certain youve got a real winner. The key number is 15; teams whose margin of victory is greater than 15 points do exceedingly well in the NCAA Tournament.



#2) Coaching Experience
The Big Dance is an entirely different experience than the regular season, requiring a different approach from the coach. It makes sense that a coach who is new to the Tournament wouldnt know as well how to handle it. The numbers strongly back up this rationale: The average number of tourney appearances for coaches in the tournament is 5.6; the average for teams reaching the Final Four is 9.3 coaching appearances; the average for the team who wins it all is 11.5 coaching appearances (more than double the tournament average). Avoid rookie tourney coaches, and stick with the old lions who have seen it all before.



#3) Team Experience
The Big Dance is not just different for the coaches, its different for the entire organization and having tourney experience is key. This concept extends even beyond the players. Consider all the details that need to be handled, from travel plans, to the type of hotels to stay at, to what equipment the trainer needs to bring. And dont underestimate the intangible of confidence a player walking onto the court knowing that he belongs on the biggest stage. That only comes with experience. The average number of consecutive tourney appearances for teams in the tournament is 3; the average for teams reaching the Final Four is more than double that!



#4) Having a superstar to count on
Since 1979, every NCAA champion except one has had at least one All-American; thats an amazing 27 out of 28 years! The logic makes perfect sense: the tourney is a rollercoaster that requires an on-the-floor leader. On the way to winning six straight games a team will likely face a number of make or break situations, and having the alpha dog on the floor in those spots makes all the difference.


#5) Reliable front court scoring
Centers and Forwards who play near the basket account for front court scoring, and their play is usually a difference maker especially for teams looking to advance deep into the tournament. Relying upon outside shooting is a losing proposition during the Big Dance: first, because the games are played in unfamiliar, spacious arenas, typically with difficult shooting backgrounds. Second, even if great shooters are able to overcome these disadvantages, doing so game after game after game is typically too much to ask. A cold night is bound to happen and it only takes one to be eliminated. Front court scoring, on the other hand, involves lay-ups and slam dunks, shots that are not as affected by surroundings or nerves. Teams who receive at least 60% of their scoring from the front court have historically over-achieved in the NCAA tournament. Stick with such teams, and you will too!

[Dennis14072]

Thanks as always Guys!