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Hey guys I want to take a minute to share a couple of thoughts on successful handicapping. I AM NOT in any way saying or thinking I am superior to any of you. Rather, I hope my words and system can be of some value to some of you.
The first thing I'd like to say is betting too many games can crush you. In my experience, the more games a person bets, the more he loses. That is because of the lack of study in each game individually, and because of people going back-and-forth and getting juiced out. Anybody ever hear the saying "less is more?" That saying applies here.
Next up is money management. DO NOT bet all of your money on a game. In fact, never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any game. We all know there is no sure thing, and we've all lost top-rated plays. The simple fact is, sometimes teams don't show up! Other times there are unforseen factors. Along with money management comes line shopping. You need multiple books so you can find the spread that best fits your needs. I HATE losing by 1/2 or 1 point! If I bet it and lose, I know I got the best line available. And we've all lost a game by a 1/2 point because we didn't shop in the past. That's like getting punched in the kidney, it's hurts and we should've been covering up instead of taking it.
For those of you who follow a cappers picks and bet them because he's been hot, think twice. Nobody wins every day and the more you win consecutively, the closer you are to be due for a loss. Some days I don't play any games, and those of you who check out my picks have noticed. That is because either I don't like any games (and I WILL NOT force a play), or because I've won too many consecutive games. After a 7-0 night, I'm usually silent the next day or two. On the flip side. after an 0-7 day, I'm ready to fire because I'm due to kick some serious bootay (although I rarely actually bet 7 games in a day). There is a law of averages, and law of probability. Don't go against them. One smart way of using these laws in your favor is to "progressively" bet. Lose $10, bet double the next. Lose that, bet double the previous bet. This is a great system as you are not likely to lose THAT many games in a row. This does, however, take a HUGE bankroll. You must have enough to cover AT LEAST a dozen losses. And you cannot start with huge bets. This is more of a long-term money-making system (I use this mainly with lower-wager casino games, but it can be applied to sports or anything for that matter).
I will not touch bases with the trends, home/road records, matchups, etc. as this is elementary and we all understand the importance of these. If we didn't we wouldn't be here.
I hope my thought here can help somebody, or to encourage somebody who knows this but has a hard time following. And I am not in any way saying you can't or won't win if you don't bet the way I do. Different things work for different people, and I'm just sharing things I've learned in my experience.
I encourage any of you to add to this with your personal thoughts, experiences, and systems. Together we can make better cappers and SMASH THE BOOK!!!!! Please do add here fellas (and ladies) and GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!!!!
p.s. I have truly enjoyed my time here since I joined. This is a great site with great people. Kapt, you are a wonderful member. I look forward to all your posts. JC, Monte, Wayne, same to you fellas. And there are lots more!
The first thing I'd like to say is betting too many games can crush you. In my experience, the more games a person bets, the more he loses. That is because of the lack of study in each game individually, and because of people going back-and-forth and getting juiced out. Anybody ever hear the saying "less is more?" That saying applies here.
Next up is money management. DO NOT bet all of your money on a game. In fact, never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any game. We all know there is no sure thing, and we've all lost top-rated plays. The simple fact is, sometimes teams don't show up! Other times there are unforseen factors. Along with money management comes line shopping. You need multiple books so you can find the spread that best fits your needs. I HATE losing by 1/2 or 1 point! If I bet it and lose, I know I got the best line available. And we've all lost a game by a 1/2 point because we didn't shop in the past. That's like getting punched in the kidney, it's hurts and we should've been covering up instead of taking it.
For those of you who follow a cappers picks and bet them because he's been hot, think twice. Nobody wins every day and the more you win consecutively, the closer you are to be due for a loss. Some days I don't play any games, and those of you who check out my picks have noticed. That is because either I don't like any games (and I WILL NOT force a play), or because I've won too many consecutive games. After a 7-0 night, I'm usually silent the next day or two. On the flip side. after an 0-7 day, I'm ready to fire because I'm due to kick some serious bootay (although I rarely actually bet 7 games in a day). There is a law of averages, and law of probability. Don't go against them. One smart way of using these laws in your favor is to "progressively" bet. Lose $10, bet double the next. Lose that, bet double the previous bet. This is a great system as you are not likely to lose THAT many games in a row. This does, however, take a HUGE bankroll. You must have enough to cover AT LEAST a dozen losses. And you cannot start with huge bets. This is more of a long-term money-making system (I use this mainly with lower-wager casino games, but it can be applied to sports or anything for that matter).
I will not touch bases with the trends, home/road records, matchups, etc. as this is elementary and we all understand the importance of these. If we didn't we wouldn't be here.
I hope my thought here can help somebody, or to encourage somebody who knows this but has a hard time following. And I am not in any way saying you can't or won't win if you don't bet the way I do. Different things work for different people, and I'm just sharing things I've learned in my experience.
I encourage any of you to add to this with your personal thoughts, experiences, and systems. Together we can make better cappers and SMASH THE BOOK!!!!! Please do add here fellas (and ladies) and GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!!!!
p.s. I have truly enjoyed my time here since I joined. This is a great site with great people. Kapt, you are a wonderful member. I look forward to all your posts. JC, Monte, Wayne, same to you fellas. And there are lots more!
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