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I do not see as many books taking these bets as usual but hopefully some of you will find some...........i will do it a little differently this year, breaking then down by 'chances of winning' tiers:
Absolute Locks, no way they lose under any circumstance:
Best Actress---Helen Mirren
Best Direction---Martin Scorceze
Adapted screenplay--the departed
Original Screeplay---little miss sunshine
documentary---an inconvenient truth
best foreign film---pan's labyrinth
cinematography---children of men
art direction---pans labyrinth
best make-up---pans labyrinth
sound mixing-----dreamgirls
visual fx---pirates of the car. 2
regular locks (maybe 1 of these loses, but unlikely)
best actor---forest whitaker (probably should be above)
supporting actress---jennifer hudson (i though one of the 3 others could beat her but not looking that way, if i had to pick an upset it would be kikuchi from japan but i am not
animated film---cars (the fact that it wasnt good hurts it but nothing was better)
film editing-----babel (10% chance the departed wins this)
costume---dreamgirls
sound editing----letters from iwo jima (they have to give it something)
i give the edge too::::
supporting actor---eddie murphy ( ithought for a while norbit would ruin his chances. and if he loses, it is all norbit's fault, but in the end, it seems like he built up enouhg points before that disaster ......if not, alan arkin wins, nobody else has a shout.....
score---->the queen should win but the everything movie, pans labyrinth may take this too........i doubt it though, the queen would be about 70-30 here
song---->dreamgirls 'listen' should edge an inconvenient truth's 'i need to wake up"
finally, the toughest call in recent history for best movie:
it seems to be a 3 way race but i just can imagine little miss sunshin winning it. there is no precedent for it. babel won at the golden globes and babel is 'the message movie', so much like crash last year but crash was better. problem is that last years 1 on 1 was between crash vs brokeback mountain and brokeback mountain was better than the departed too........since i have to mae a prediction, i will say babel wins but it is totally 50-50 between that an the departed
good luck
b
Absolute Locks, no way they lose under any circumstance:
Best Actress---Helen Mirren
Best Direction---Martin Scorceze
Adapted screenplay--the departed
Original Screeplay---little miss sunshine
documentary---an inconvenient truth
best foreign film---pan's labyrinth
cinematography---children of men
art direction---pans labyrinth
best make-up---pans labyrinth
sound mixing-----dreamgirls
visual fx---pirates of the car. 2
regular locks (maybe 1 of these loses, but unlikely)
best actor---forest whitaker (probably should be above)
supporting actress---jennifer hudson (i though one of the 3 others could beat her but not looking that way, if i had to pick an upset it would be kikuchi from japan but i am not
animated film---cars (the fact that it wasnt good hurts it but nothing was better)
film editing-----babel (10% chance the departed wins this)
costume---dreamgirls
sound editing----letters from iwo jima (they have to give it something)
i give the edge too::::
supporting actor---eddie murphy ( ithought for a while norbit would ruin his chances. and if he loses, it is all norbit's fault, but in the end, it seems like he built up enouhg points before that disaster ......if not, alan arkin wins, nobody else has a shout.....
score---->the queen should win but the everything movie, pans labyrinth may take this too........i doubt it though, the queen would be about 70-30 here
song---->dreamgirls 'listen' should edge an inconvenient truth's 'i need to wake up"
finally, the toughest call in recent history for best movie:
it seems to be a 3 way race but i just can imagine little miss sunshin winning it. there is no precedent for it. babel won at the golden globes and babel is 'the message movie', so much like crash last year but crash was better. problem is that last years 1 on 1 was between crash vs brokeback mountain and brokeback mountain was better than the departed too........since i have to mae a prediction, i will say babel wins but it is totally 50-50 between that an the departed
good luck
b
PS-MARVIN LOVES SPLIT SALAD !! 
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