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Saturday Trends and Indexes 02/17

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  • #16
    College Basketball – Write up (balance of schedule)

    NCAAB
    Write up
    (Remainder of games)

    Saturday, February 17

    -- Oregon ended 4-game skid vs Stanford, beating Cardinal 66-59 in first meeting, despite Ducks shooting 29.4% from floor; their edge from foul line was 30-11. Oregon lost last two trips to this site, 64-62/88-69. Stanford is 3-2 as Pac-10 home fave, winning home games by 1,3,15,7,15 points. Goods' injury hurts Cardinal.

    -- Central Florida won last two games vs Rice, 72-67/77-64. Rice is 5-0 at home in C-USA this season, winning by 5ot,5,6,9,15 pts UCF won three of last four games, is 3-3 on C-USA road. Home favorites are 25-24 vs spread in Conference USA this season.

    -- Ark-Little Rock won last four games vs North Texas, winning last visit here, 71-64 (+1); Trojans won first meeting 86-75 Jan 4 (+1), shooting 61.7% from floor, making 10-14 treys. North Texas played in Denver Thursday, so this is quick turnaround for them.

    -- East Carolina is 0-11 in C-USA, SMU 2-9, so not much to pick from here; Mustangs won 74-70 at ECU last year (+3); SMU lost four of five at home in league, beating Tulane by hoop. Pirates are 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 18,11,4,9,24 points.

    -- Western Kentucky lost four of last five road games; they beat Troy 82-78 in OT Jan 3 (-15), in game with 65 treys shot, only 19 total turnovers. Troy won three of last four home games; they crushed WKU 76-49 here LY (+5). Sun Belt home dogs are 13-6.

    -- Louisville won six of its last eight games, winning easily at Pitt Monday; they lost 74-65 at home to Marquette Jan 15 (-3), first win for Eagles in last four series games. Marquette won four in a row at home, but lost last two games on road, scoring 62.5 ppg.

    -- Boston College won last two games vs North Carolina, 75-72/ 81-74; both teams are coming off losses. Carolina covered three of last four as road dog- their road wins are by 22,28,6 pts, with losses at Va Tech, NC State. Eagles are 1-2 as an ACC underdog.

    -- Home side won four of last five ULL-Denver games, with ULL losing last two visits here, 75-63/79-72, but Pioneers lost six in a row, are 2-13 in Sun Belt, 3-2-1 as home dog. Third game in five days for Cajuns, who are 1-6 SU on Sun Belt road, 1-3 against spread as Sun Belt favorite.

    -- TCU is 2-10 in Mountain West, but they won opener 64-52 at home vs New Mexico Jan 3 (+2.5) after losing twice vs Lobos a year ago (53-42/56-54). Lobos are 2-3 at home in normally tough Pit. Frogs lost last ten games, covering one of last five on road.

    -- Home side won four of last five Tulsa-UTEP games, as UTEP lost first meeting 86-79 in OT Jan 13 (+3), in game Hurricane hit 40-43 free throws, compared to 23-33 for Miners. Tulsa is 1-3 in last four games, UTEP 1-5 in last six, so not lot to choose from.

    -- Santa Clara won, covered five in row, eight of last nine games after convincing win at Gonzaga Monday; Broncos won 61-47 at San Diego Jan 20 (+4), as Toreros were just 2-19 from arc. USD won five of last six road games. Broncos are 4-1 as a home fave.

    -- Home side won four of last five LMU-Pepperdine games, but Waves won 57-55 at Loyola Jan 20 (+1), one of only two wins in WCC for 2-9 Pepperdine. Lions are 4-2 since then, while Waves lost last five games (0-5 vs spread) by 22,25,11,12,12 points.

    -- Wichita State is 8-10 in last 18 games, after 9-0 start; Ogirri did not play at Drake last game (ankle). Appalachian State has wins over Vanderbilt, Virginia, VCU; they've won eight of last nine in SoCon, are 6-4 vs spread when underdog this season. Wichita lost Bracket Buster games in each of last two seasons.

    -- Holy Cross is coached by Ralph Willard, so hesitate to give them points; their 61 RPI is ten spots higher than Hofstra, which is 3-3 in last six games after 9-1 start in CAA. Hofstra is 11-0 in CAA if they allow less than 72 pts. Crusaders are ranked 193rd in offensive efficiency, so this might be tough matchup for them.

    -- Southern Illinois won last eight games, but only two were on road; Butler had 7-game win streak snapped at Wright State last Saturday. Both teams are in bottom 15 in country in pace, so not lot of scoring expected. Salukis are 5-3 SU on road in Valley.

    -- Kent won seven of last eight games, losing last road game by 22 at Western Michigan. George Mason is 3-5 last eight games, losing last two at home, to Old Dominion, Hofstra; they won the Bracket Buster game last 2 yrs. Kent is 3-8 on road this season.

    -- Austin Peay is 15-2 in Ohio Valley, but 1-5 vs D-I teams out of conference; OVC road teams got crushed in non-league games in December; Governors are 7-1 in last eight road games. Akron won 10 of last 11 games; they're 4-3 as a MAC home favorite.

    -- Northern Iowa lost four in row, six of last seven games; they lost four of last five road games, with losses by 2,13,13,11- they are 8-2 vs D-I teams out of conference. Nevada won last six in a row, they're 2-5 as WAC home fave (Ws by 26,4,10,17,17,1,8).

    -- Old Dominion won, covered last eight games, with all eight by 10+ points, but Toledo is 6-0 at home in MAC (5-1 as a favorite) Monarchs won last two games vs CAA rivals VCU, Hofstra, as they move up to 2nd in CAA. Toledo covered 10 of last twelve.

    -- Utah State won last four games, but three were at home, other was vs doormat Idaho; Aggies are 3-7 on road this season, with 88-71 loss at Northwestern State; they're also 0-5-1 vs spread on WAC road. Oral Roberts beat Kansas, lost to LMU- difficult to endorse team with more turnovers than assists.

    -- Fullerton is 6th in country in pace, Wright State 293rd; tempo will be issue here. Raiders won last eight games (7-1 vs spread); they're 8-0 at home in Horizon, with last seven home wins all by 11+ points. Fullerton is 4-3 on Big West road; last two years, a Big West team (Long Beach '06, Northridge '05) came east and won a Bracket Buster game as an underdog.

    -- Bradley, VCU both among top 30 in country in efficiency on offense; Braves went 4-5 on road in MVC; they've won three of last four games overall. VCU is 8-0 at home in CAA, 14-2 overall; they covered their last three at home, winning by 22,29,14 pts.

    -- Drexel, Creighton are both 2-0 in Bracket Buster games the last couple years; Bluejays are 5-3 as MVC home favorite, with four of eight home wins by 11+ pts- they beat George Mason by two at home Nov 25. Drexel won four of its last five games on road.

    -- Ohio U just lost by 31 at Akron, their second loss in row; OU allowed 77.2 ppg in last five games. New Mexico State is 5-0 at home in WAC; this is their first home game in 16 days. Aggies prefer faster pace. Bobcats are 6-3 vs spread as the underdog.

    -- Citadel lost seven of last eight games; they're 3-2 as home dog in SoCon, losing home games by 4,12,3,10,12 pts- they lost 63-59 at Furman in first meeting (+11). Paladins won last two road tilts, by 7,5 pts, after losing first four. SoCon home dogs are 10-12.

    -- Davidson won last six games; they're 5-1 as SoCon favorite on road, winning away games by 3,12,8,5,9,30,10. Western Carolina lost 79-59 at Davidson Jan 27 (+16); they're 1-8 in SoCon when they allow 75+ pts, 6-0 if they don't. Davidson scored 75+ in five of their last six games.

    -- Wofford won three of last four games after 1-9 start in SoCon; they're 9-1 vs spread in last ten games, with six losses by five or less points in 2007. Charleston beat Terriers 77-75 at home back on Jan 22 (-12.5); they won four of six on road in conference.

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    • #17
      Saturday's List of 13: More fantasy baseball prospects

      Assuming you're in a league where you can take players who have yet to play in big leagues, here are prospects that are worth taking a look at.........

      13) Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Atl-- Not only does he have an unbelievably long name, he's Braves #1 prospect. Catchers are hard to come by; he is .273 hitter in minor leagues.

      12) Brent Clevlen, OF, Det-- Hit .282 in 39 AB for Tigers a year ago. Knocked in 1-2 runs in low minors in 2005.

      11) Troy Patton, P, Hst-- Allowed 256 hits in 294 IP so far in his minor league career, with 303 strikeouts.

      10) Brian Bannister, P, KC-- Made six starts for Mets in 2006 (2-1, 4.26) but was hampered by injuries, then traded to KC for Ambiorex Burgos. Why do people trade for relief pitchers from a team with a terrible bullpen?

      9) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pitt-- .298 hitter in minors so far, was Florida's HS Player of Year in 2005, so he has risen thru ranks quickly. Hit .308 in 78 AA ABs last season.

      8) Adam Jones, OF, Sea-- Compared to Mike Cameron, Jones has hit .285 in minors, and got taste of majors last year, with a .216 average in 74 ABs.

      7) Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM-- Received most money of all the international signings in '05, then hit .279 as he moved up ranks in Mets' minor league system last season.

      6) Cole Gillespie, OF, Mil-- Won College World Series out at Oregon State, and was Pac-10 Player of Year. Hit .344 in first pro action last summer. Not ready for big leagues yet, but his time in Pac-10 acellerates the process.

      5) Preston Mattingly, SS, LA-- Son of famous father hit .290 in his first pro season; Dodgers gave him $1M to sign.

      4) Brandon Wood, SS, LAA-- .285 career hitter in minors, hit 25 homers in AA last year. May eventually switch to 3B.

      3) Franklin Morales, P, Colo-- 33-20 in minor leagues, throws it 94-95, has 438 strikeouts in 394 IP. And he's a lefty.

      2) Kyle Drabek, P, Phil-- Has great stuff, bad temper, dad who was terrific major league pitcher.

      1) Reid Brignac, SS, TB-- .301 hitter in minors so far, will be interesting to see where he fits in; do they move Zobrist to 2B, and what will they do with Upton? Likely to be in majors before 2007 is over.

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      • #18
        Thanks guys!

        NCAA Hoops 14-14-1 -2.35 units NFL 2-1 +1 unit
        NBA 6-7-1 -2.32 units NHL 10-4-1 +3.95 units
        MLB 6-7-1 -2.95u WNBA 1-0 +1u. NCAAF 3-1 +1.5 u

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