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An NBA Theory of mine( OVER barrage pre-All-Star)

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  • #1

    An NBA Theory of mine( OVER barrage pre-All-Star)

    I am too lazy to produce the researched documentation at this hour, but I have made a "Note to self" every year regarding the propensity of the games right before the AS break to go over the totals,sometimes by wide margins. This may be one of those lazy myths, and a capper's shortcut to EZ money, for which we all know there are none.

    But for a preview, or small example, Tuesday night's NBA card was with 7 games, 6 of which went over, and the the 7th missed by 7 points as the woeful Bucks mailed in 11 4th quarter points at home.

    Wednesday's card is fat, and only two on the TNT Thursday package, and then the majority of the league has a 3-day pass to do as they please. DEFENSE will be a low priority for most of these as they are like school-kids before Christmas break, or the last days before summer, ready to be free to roam. These guys have been going at it hard since late August, and they can taste their freedom.

    So while I haven't pinpointed any particular OVER plays, I have my eyes peeled, and will be very discriminating of any potential UNDERs that intrigue.

    Anybody have any opinions regarding this hypothesis? Feel free to comb the archives for statistical proof/disproof.

    GL all
    You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.
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  • #2
    Your hypothesis has some merit. But I wouldn't play all the Overs quite yet.

    Since 1995, games prior to the all star break play over 59.7% However over the past two seasons 14-13 OVER. If the Total is 200 or more games have gone OVER 13-10 but only 1-3 last season. It appears the linesmaker has adjusted pre-all star totals.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by frankb03
      Your hypothesis has some merit. But I wouldn't play all the Overs quite yet.

      Since 1995, games prior to the all star break play over 59.7% However over the past two seasons 14-13 OVER. If the Total is 200 or more games have gone OVER 13-10 but only 1-3 last season. It appears the linesmaker has adjusted pre-all star totals.
      Frank, you are simply a walking encyclopedia with this stuff!! Amazing!

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      • #4
        Thanks Frank. That is how I recalled it, that of late it has cooled, but haven't totals in general ( and scoring) risen in the last two years?
        You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.

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        • #5
          Currently looking at:

          Mem-Ind
          NY-GSt
          Atl-LAC
          Was-Phi
          Chi-Cha
          You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by GrandPa
            haven't totals in general ( and scoring) risen in the last two years?
            Scoring has obviously increased the past two season. With it the game's Total has also increased.

            Look at home teams tonight and tomorrow. It's been about a 60% home cover the last game before the all star break.

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            • #7
              Will do. Thanks again Frank.
              You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.

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              • #8
                Good info!! Thanks gents!!

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                • #9
                  good luck GP on your new theroy
                  I AM A NITWIT

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                  • #10
                    Overs go 8-5 after 6-1 Tuesday, for 14-6 , or 70%.

                    2 more games on Thursday, but a winning angle either way.
                    You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.

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                    • #11
                      And special note to Frank, who noted the home teams success rate in finales before AS.

                      Homers 9-4 ATS on Wed
                      You can't always get what you want, but if you try some time, you might find, you get what you need.

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                      • #12
                        GrandPa thanks for sharing your Theory and updating the results.

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                        • #13
                          Thanx brothers for the heads up!
                          "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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