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Butler is coming off a near perfect game, destroying Cleveland State on the back of a school record 20 made three point shots. Don’t expect that type of success again on Saturday, as the Bulldogs face their toughest test in months when they travel to Dayton to face Wright State on Saturday night.
Butler is 5-0 ATS as an underdog, enjoying great success in early season play against bigger name schools, beating the likes of Indiana, Purdue, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Notre Dame, all on neutral courts. The Bulldogs are also 9-1 ATS as a double digit favorite, consistently able to blow out weak foes from start to finish. Their only weakness has come in this very spread range, as modest favorites, just 2-4 ATS when laying between three and nine points.
And frankly, Butler is a wee bit overvalued at this stage of the season, the single best ATS club in all of college basketball heading into this test. Both previous straight up losses this year came on the road against solid competition. Butler is not a big team, by any stretch of the imagination, without a shot blocker or a dominant rebounder. When their perimeter shots don’t fall, the Bulldogs are vulnerable. And, after facing one lethargic, second rate Horizon team after the next for the last month, Butler is walking into a buzzsaw tonight.
Wright State has been pointing towards this game since their first meeting with the Bulldogs, an ugly 31 point defeat. Since that time, the Raiders have reeled off nine wins and covers in their last ten games. Unlike nationally ranked Butler (currently #9 in the nation), Wright State is on nobody’s radar screen – five of those outright wins have come as underdogs.
Wright State has already sold more than 7000 tickets to this game, their largest crowd since an upset over #6 Michigan State back in 1999. This will be the most hostile environment that Butler has seen all year, by far. Brad Brownell’s first year as the Raiders head coach has seen a dramatic upsurge in defensive intensity and overall confidence. Their last five opponents have collectively shot less than 35% from the floor. Wright State has won six of the last eight meetings with Butler, including three straight here at the Nutter Center. Frankly, they are every bit as good as their opponent, but Butler’s national reputation and ATS success forces the linesmakers to install them as the favorite. Don’t buy into the hype.
Wright State +4
Butler is 5-0 ATS as an underdog, enjoying great success in early season play against bigger name schools, beating the likes of Indiana, Purdue, Gonzaga, Tennessee and Notre Dame, all on neutral courts. The Bulldogs are also 9-1 ATS as a double digit favorite, consistently able to blow out weak foes from start to finish. Their only weakness has come in this very spread range, as modest favorites, just 2-4 ATS when laying between three and nine points.
And frankly, Butler is a wee bit overvalued at this stage of the season, the single best ATS club in all of college basketball heading into this test. Both previous straight up losses this year came on the road against solid competition. Butler is not a big team, by any stretch of the imagination, without a shot blocker or a dominant rebounder. When their perimeter shots don’t fall, the Bulldogs are vulnerable. And, after facing one lethargic, second rate Horizon team after the next for the last month, Butler is walking into a buzzsaw tonight.
Wright State has been pointing towards this game since their first meeting with the Bulldogs, an ugly 31 point defeat. Since that time, the Raiders have reeled off nine wins and covers in their last ten games. Unlike nationally ranked Butler (currently #9 in the nation), Wright State is on nobody’s radar screen – five of those outright wins have come as underdogs.
Wright State has already sold more than 7000 tickets to this game, their largest crowd since an upset over #6 Michigan State back in 1999. This will be the most hostile environment that Butler has seen all year, by far. Brad Brownell’s first year as the Raiders head coach has seen a dramatic upsurge in defensive intensity and overall confidence. Their last five opponents have collectively shot less than 35% from the floor. Wright State has won six of the last eight meetings with Butler, including three straight here at the Nutter Center. Frankly, they are every bit as good as their opponent, but Butler’s national reputation and ATS success forces the linesmakers to install them as the favorite. Don’t buy into the hype.
Wright State +4
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