Spears Sightings

[Spearit]

St. Louis against Xavier.
Can anyone confirm this?

Xavier guards Justin Doellman and Josh Duncan are DOUBTFUL for the game against Saint Louis. Justin Doellman averages 12.6 ppg, 5.7 rebounds per game, 21 steals (Overall), and 27 blocks (Overall), in his 23 games. While Josh Duncan played 20 games and averaged 11.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, he has 8 steals and 9 blocks.

[Spearit]

Ace-Ace has UCLA tonight. His CBB has a decent record and Monte posts him on occasion.

[ham]

Duncan is out...Doellman is questionable and even if he goes, he is nowhere near 100%...... he hasn't practiced since he got hurt Saturday...X hasnt beat St louis I beleive..I will be On St louis..I think

[Spearit]

UCLA huh? I know one guy was out the last time they met.

[Spearit]

Duncan is out...Doellman is questionable and even if he goes, he is nowhere near 100%...... he hasn't practiced since he got hurt Saturday...X hasnt beat St louis I beleive..I will be On St louis..I think

Nice detective work- I am on St. Louis


Back to UCLA
A win over USC would mean more than just bragging rights for UCLA this time around.

The second-ranked Bruins look to hang onto sole possession of first place in the Pac-10 when they host the Trojans on Wednesday.

Oddsmakers have the Bruins listed as 9 1/2-point favorites and the total is set at 125.

USC (18-6, 8-3) is tied with Washington State for second place in the conference, one game behind UCLA (20-2. 9-2). The Trojans re-entered the poll at No. 19 after a 73-56 win over Oregon State on Thursday and a 71-68 victory over then-No. 9 Oregon two days later.

UCLA, meanwhile, is coming off Thursday's 69-57 win over the Ducks and Saturday's impressive 82-35 victory over the Beavers. The Bruins have their sights set on a No. 1 seed in the Pac-10 tournament.

"You're playing for that seed because it's the easiest route to the Final Four," UCLA's Arron Afflalo said. "A lot of things are at stake, so we'll come out focused."

Both teams have tough games coming up. Wednesday's contest opens a season-ending stretch in which the Trojans play five of seven on the road, including trips to No. 24 Arizona, No. 25 Stanford and Washington State.

"I'm not sure if there's a tougher three-game stretch in the country - playing Oregon, UCLA and Arizona like we do," coach Tim Floyd said.

The Bruins play five of their last eight on the road and also visit Arizona and Washington State.

"I think it's two very good teams right now," UCLA coach Ben Howland said of Wednesday's matchup. "The rivalry's always going to be there. I mean, that's USC and UCLA playing in any sport, so that's just how it is."

Afflalo, who leads the Bruins with 17.0 points per game, scored 16 on Saturday, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute added 14. UCLA has won 17 straight at Pauley Pavilion dating to last season.

"We wanted to come out with the same intensity as we did against Oregon," said guard Darren Collison, who had eight points and 10 assists. "If we want to get where we want to go, we got to have games like we did today."

The two victories came on the heels of UCLA's second loss of the season, 75-68 at Stanford on Jan. 28.

"It's not like all of a sudden, we've won two home games and now we've suddenly arrived," Howland said. "It's all about what you've done for me lately."

Freshman Taj Gibson scored 18 points Saturday for USC, winner of three straight since a road loss to the Cardinal on Jan. 25. Nick Young, who leads the Trojans with 17.0 points per game, added 13.

"We've been in so many close games. They understand close games and know how to win," Floyd said. "We're showing great poise when we need poise, and we're showing attack when we need to attack."

The Trojans lost 65-64 to the Bruins on Jan. 13 on Afflalo's go-ahead 3-pointer with 4 seconds left. UCLA has won four of the last five meetings after dropping four straight in the series.

"SC is looking for that revenge," said Collison, who matched a career high with 17 points in that contest. "I like challenges like this, when you're playing a good team and a team that's a rivalry. It's not always fun just to have an easy victory against a rivalry team."

The Bruins were without Josh Shipp, their second-leading scorer at 13.4 points per game, in the first meeting because of a small hamstring tear.

"They're better because they just got more experience," Howland said of the Trojans. "We're better than we were when we played them the first time, too, not just the fact that Josh is healthy, but we've improved as a team."

[Spearit]

(UCLA may be a decent play.)

Concerning the ranked vs unranked system posted earlier by Vinnie Vegas.
Seems to have gone 5-1 lately and doing OK.

If interested. These are the plays. Remember unranked favs have the best record.

Wed - Unranked Home Favourites / DOGS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From one monitoring this.
The Favs have taken a beating the last 9 games going 2-6-1. I wiil keep posting for another week or so and see how it goes. The DOGS have gone 5-1 last 6 Games!!!

One Play LastNight: DOG 1-0

My Record:

Unranked Home Favourites: 11-6
Unranked Home DOGS: 10-12
Overall: 21-18

Overall Record - 2006-7 Season:
Unranked Home Team vs Ranked Opponent (all records are ATS):

Favourites

As a Favorite: 54% (20-17-1) - 2-6-1 last 9
As a Favourite of -1 to -3.5: 61% (17-11)
As a Favourite of -4 to -5.5: 33% (3-6)

DOGS

As a Dog: 53% (51-46-2)
As a Dog of 0-3.5: 61% (20-13-1)
As a Dog of 4-9.5: 41% (18-26)
As a Dog of 10+: 65% (13-7-1)

Overall: 53% (71-63-3)


Unranked Home Favourites

(22)Georgetown (16-5)
Louisville (16-7) -1

(17)Oklahoma State (18-4)
Oklahoma (13-8) -5.5

Unranked Home DOGS

(1)Florida (21-2) -7
Georgia (13-8)

(7)Pittsburgh (20-3) -2.5
West Virginia (18-4)

(4)Wisconsin (22-2) -11.5
Penn State (10-11)

[ham]

Went ahead and booked St louis....take a look at the dukes of
Duquesne getting 2 at la sally.....they play a great up tempo game..since their big man went down..I have won allot on them latey

[ham]

Iowa looks good too giving 2.5.........Iowa playing some good ball right now againest a week minn team

[kbsooner21]

Best of luck Spear!

[rocko]

U GUYS KNOW I LIVE HERE IN STLOUIS AND THE BILLKENS HAVE A GREAT TEAM THIS YESAR AND WHAT REALLY IMPRESSED ME WAS THE OTHER DAY WHEN THEY WENT TO ST JOES AND BEAT THEM ON NAT. TV AND YES THEY HAVE ALWAYS PLAYED XAVIER TOUGH tHANKS FOR POSTING SPEAR. WHEN GOT A NICEEEEEEE BACKDOOR COVER ON BOSTON LAST NIGHT DET. WAS KICKING THERE ASS THE WHOLE GAME IN FACT I ALREADY MARKED AS A LOSS THEN I SEEN THAT FINAL THOUGHT IT WAS A MISTAKE LOL THANKS FOR ANOTHER WINNER OH YEAH STLOUIS IS 3-0 ATS THE LAST 3 GAMES VS XAV. GLLLLLLLLL
GET-R-DON PEACE

[Spearit]

NC vs Duke

Always the most anticipated game of Rivalry Week is the North Carolina and Duke battle, because the stakes are always incredibly high. Like always the long time Atlantic Coast Conference are highly ranked and battling for first place.

Oh, neither is in first place? Well then who is? Boston College and Virginia! North Carolina was beaten by North Carolina State and Duke comes into this monster match-up with consecutive losses for the first time since 1989. Well, ah, Re-do!

Instead we now have two teams that have knocked off there traditional high perch and are searching for a win in the most heated of situations. The Tar Heels lost as 17-point road favorites at Raleigh, as the Wolf Pack made an alarming 60.5% of all shots taken. This led to irked Coach Roy Williams to say his team "fat and happy" afterward. This will mark the first time since 2003 and only the fifth time in 31 years that both teams enter the game after a loss.

Duke will be playing in the NCAA Tournament; nonetheless that is the last of their concerns after losing back to back games to Virginia by two in overtime and at home to Florida State by a point this past Sunday. The loss to the Seminoles gives the Blue Devils two home losses already in the ACC. When you're in a hole like this, it's not just about Duke-Carolina anymore," freshman Gerald Henderson said. "It's about your standing in the league and your season,”. Duke is still the top defensive team in the league, holding teams to 57.1 points a game and coach Mike Krzyzewski teams are 11-2 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams, scoring 84 or more points a game.

For only the second time in the last ten years North Carolina will be favored in Durham, this time by 4.5-points at Sportsbook.com. This is up a full point from the overnight line of 3.5. The Tar Heels are young team that will have the occasional hiccup like they did in last game, nevertheless no misunderstanding the talent and options. North Carolina wins by an average of 22 PPG and converts on better then fifty percent of all shots. Defensively despite pushing the ball up the floor continually, they do get back on defense holding the opposition to 39.9% shooting. The Tar Heels are 15-5 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite.

This always entertaining contest will have different rhythm because of the mental state of each club. Normally its two teams trying to enforce their will upon the other, this time around both have a real sense of urgency to get back on the winning beam.

...the idea of the home underdog especially in a game like this would be the mark. The problem here is the talent disparity. The Tar Heels have far more options to score and bring people off the bench. Duke is limited offensively and leans more on balanced scoring and defense to win games. In this case the Blue Devils really have to be aggressive in going to the basket to draw fouls and convert at the line.

Tempo will be the most important element, Duke averages 69.4 PPG and needs to be able to grab a lead and stay within five points of that number.

Oddsmakers are saying this could happen with the total currently 142.5, meaning they believe Duke can control the pace of the game. If the number stays at 4.5, the Blue Devils would get the lean. Anything less would be a no play or would have to start to look at UNC.

Of course Dick Vitale will be in Durham ready to sing the praises of both teams (until one starts to take off) starting at 9 Eastern on ESPN.

[Spearit]

This is a system I am still monitoring- Has over 60 % winners. Again just monitoring.

LaSalle -1.5 vs. Duquesne
St. Johns -3.5 vs. S. Florida
Utah -3 vs. Colorado St.
Purdue -2 vs. Michigan St.

A game I feel strongly about is:

BC -5 over Miami
Although Miami has the advantage of playing at home, Boston College is clearly the better team in this matchup and will win yet again. The Hurricanes will have no answer for the duo of Dudley and Rice.

[Meathead]

great info on the Xavier game. With mighty quinn on Xavier also. hopefully money in the bank.

[Spearit]

Ah home now- Lets see! Lets follow another excellent capper. Call him "O"
Since I am piling up here with systems and trends.

Hmmm--I don't agree with the first one- but I choose not to play it either. Remember Horford was out of the lineup and that made a big dent in the ATS away structure. Georgia is tough at home beating everybody in the SEC I believe.

Georgia (+6.5) (-110) over Florida*

*This line is currently available at abc and betus. Georgia remains a Top Play at +5.5 or more. In order to secure the best line, I would recommend investing now as I have been told that this line may drop before tip-off.

While Florida enters this game with an impressive 21-2 record, the Gators are a pedestrian 3-4 ATS on the road and have dropped 3 of their last 5 games to the number.

Georgia plays outstanding defense at home as evidenced by the fact that they are limiting opponents to 63.1 points per game on 39.9% shooting. In addition, Georgia is averaging 10 steals per contest, including 6 blocks, while limiting foes to only 31 rebounds. Give me a strong defensive squad at home getting points and I'm a happy investor.

Finally, Georgia is 11-2 at home this season, including an impressive 7-2 ATS when playing with double-digit same- season revenge. Conversely, Florida is a money-burning 0-14 ATS in straight-up losses to opponent they had defeated earlier in the season by 16 or more points.

---------------------------------------------
Mississippi State (+4) (-110) over Alabama*

*This line is currently available at wsex and matchbook. Mississippi State remains a Top Play at +3 or more.

The Crimson Tide have been money-burners all season as they are a woeful 6-11 ATS, including 2-5 ATS at home and 2-6 ATS in conference play. In addition, Alabama has dropped 4 of their last 5 games to the number!

Let's not forget that Alabama is a dreadful 1-8 ATS off a home win, 7-18 ATS as a favorite and 9-19 ATS after one or more consecutive wins.

Meanwhile, despite these alarming numbers, the public continues to pound the home favorite. Once again, the wrong team is favored as Mississippi State will win this game outright. Invest with confidence!
---------------------------------------------
**Top Play #2** (SUPER BEST BET)
Northwestern (+5) (-110) over Illinois*

*This line is currently available at betus, cris and cascade. Northwestern remains a Top Play at +4 or more.

Illinois is 2-13 ATS after playing a game as a favorite, 2-10 ATS after a home game, 1-11 ATS after consecutive wins and 5-15 ATS this season. Conversely, Northwestern is 8-1 ATS at home following consecutive losses since 2003.

Illinois is 1-9 ATS on the road this season, 3-7 ATS in conference play and has dropped 3 of their last 5 games to the number. With Indiana on deck (Saturday), look for a distracted and 'looking-ahead' Illinois squad to drop yet another road game to the scrappy Wildcats.

Finally, Illinois applies to my worst (i.e. most negative) 'look-ahead' system, while Northwestern applies to one of my best 'home turnaround' systems.
--------------------------------------------
Duquesne (+3.5) (-110) over LaSalle*

*This line is currently available at betus, 5dimes and wsex.

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LaSalle) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more.
(32-9 over the last 5 seasons; 78%)

This system is 3-1 ATS this season and 21-7 ATS since 2002.
-----------------------------
Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LaSalle) - after allowing 80 points or more in a loss to a conference rival against opponent off a road win.
(25-5 since 1997; 83.3%)

This system is 9-2 ATS since 2002 and 19-4 ATS since 2000.
-----------------------------
Finally, Duquesne is an amazing 13-3 ATS as an underdog this season, 7-1 ATS as a road underdog and 8-2 ATS after a conference tilt. The wrong team is favored tonight so grab the points and invest with confidence.

[Spearit]

My apology to Kapt for Rotation Lines- Just not my plays.

NBA "S" System Plays

Monitored NBA overall 4-1
NBA expanded* 5-1

by date:
2/1 no play
2/2 Magic -3.5 winner
Hornets -1 winner
2/3 no play
2/4 Cavaliers -2 loser
2/5 Sixers -1 winner
Jazz -3 winner

by line
-1 2-0
-2 0-1
-3 1-0
-3.5 1-0
-5 1-0

Tonight the play is the NJ Nets

Expanded Plays (Added Filter)
Extended Line Play
Bobcats
76ers -4.5