Tweet
Spears NBA Angle and Play
Boston -11
I am no fan of the Celts and have done well playing against them but:
Boston L5 road dog:
@ Detroit - +12.5 W (by 4.5)
@ Atlanta - +5.5 W (by 1.5)
@ Washington - +11.5 W (by 6.5)
@ Toronto - +9.0 W (by 3.0)
@ Indiana - +9.0 W (by 2.0)
0-5 SU
5-0 ATS
Also read this for good info on dogs.
The grind continues in the NBA where all teams have passed the midway point of the season and all but a select few All-Stars can take a few days to relax and kick back in the coming weeks. With this many games having been played the opportunity exists to start to look for profitable situations that can occur. The thoughts turned to are NBA teams motivated to play a road game after losing consecutive home games?
The natural inclination would be they are, as coaches and players have to face the local media and explain how the team lost on the home court even if they had back to back games with Phoenix and Dallas. One would expect the competitive juices to flow and return to action with better performances, be it in the role of favorite or underdog.
Thus far their have been forty instances this exact situation has happened. Of this number only seven times has any team been favored after dropping a pair of games losing at home. The logic is in position, since the very best teams in the league are unlikely to lose back to back home games. The second tier of teams like Detroit, Cleveland, Houston and Utah are all teams that could be favored after losing at home. Any of the rest of the clubs in the NBA are almost without question going to be underdogs hitting the road given also recent performances.
In all, of the forty games played, the road team won 17 times straight up producing a 22-17-1 ATS record. Breaking this down further, a number of things are learned. Starting with the favorites, this would be one area where the road team would figure to shine when favored. In fact though the sampling is small, it still is mediocre. The teams thought to be better are just 3-4 SU and against the spread. Incidentally, twice their have games that went off as a “pick” and both times the visitor off a couple of humbling defeats bounced back and won.
Place these same teams in the role of an underdog and this is where they come around and start to show a little more fight. In all 31 games have fit in the 2006-07 season. Here we have underdogs winning 14 times outright and posted a quality number in beating the line maker at 18-12-1 ATS, for 60 percent winners. As compared to those teams favored in this situation who still understand their position of being the superior team, they might not bring the same tenacity to the court because despite minor setbacks, they still have the belief whom the better team actually is. In the case of the underdog, the ever popular “us against the world” mentality can be used and as the results prove, these dogs have plenty of bite left.
Not satisfied to accept a good number, the old miners cap goes on to see if even more gold was available. At this juncture the underdogs were broken into two groups, one a relatively small underdog and the other the larger variety. With a standard number of four points placed on the home team for being such, two points were added making our pooch decently well bred, with a chance to win and cover the game presumably at six or less points. The other takes on a motlier mutt appearance being an underdog of 7 or more points, meaning the dog could be expected in many cases to roll over and play dead.
In the first category the shorter underdog performed about as expected with 6-8 record and 7-7 ATS mark, which was mildly disappointing. Those feeling were swiftly jettisoned when determining the play of larger road dogs. Here these NBA mongrels were a solid 8-9 SU. What was found was akin to a dog finding a box full of treats under the bed. These seemingly unsightly underdogs were a mouth watering 12-4-1 75% against the spread when catching 7 or more points on the road after dropping two straight home games.
The lesson taught is never underestimate the qualities of a dog when backed into a corner, be it in real life or in sports wagering.
I am no fan of the Celts and have done well playing against them but:
Boston L5 road dog:
@ Detroit - +12.5 W (by 4.5)
@ Atlanta - +5.5 W (by 1.5)
@ Washington - +11.5 W (by 6.5)
@ Toronto - +9.0 W (by 3.0)
@ Indiana - +9.0 W (by 2.0)
0-5 SU
5-0 ATS
Also read this for good info on dogs.
The grind continues in the NBA where all teams have passed the midway point of the season and all but a select few All-Stars can take a few days to relax and kick back in the coming weeks. With this many games having been played the opportunity exists to start to look for profitable situations that can occur. The thoughts turned to are NBA teams motivated to play a road game after losing consecutive home games?
The natural inclination would be they are, as coaches and players have to face the local media and explain how the team lost on the home court even if they had back to back games with Phoenix and Dallas. One would expect the competitive juices to flow and return to action with better performances, be it in the role of favorite or underdog.
Thus far their have been forty instances this exact situation has happened. Of this number only seven times has any team been favored after dropping a pair of games losing at home. The logic is in position, since the very best teams in the league are unlikely to lose back to back home games. The second tier of teams like Detroit, Cleveland, Houston and Utah are all teams that could be favored after losing at home. Any of the rest of the clubs in the NBA are almost without question going to be underdogs hitting the road given also recent performances.
In all, of the forty games played, the road team won 17 times straight up producing a 22-17-1 ATS record. Breaking this down further, a number of things are learned. Starting with the favorites, this would be one area where the road team would figure to shine when favored. In fact though the sampling is small, it still is mediocre. The teams thought to be better are just 3-4 SU and against the spread. Incidentally, twice their have games that went off as a “pick” and both times the visitor off a couple of humbling defeats bounced back and won.
Place these same teams in the role of an underdog and this is where they come around and start to show a little more fight. In all 31 games have fit in the 2006-07 season. Here we have underdogs winning 14 times outright and posted a quality number in beating the line maker at 18-12-1 ATS, for 60 percent winners. As compared to those teams favored in this situation who still understand their position of being the superior team, they might not bring the same tenacity to the court because despite minor setbacks, they still have the belief whom the better team actually is. In the case of the underdog, the ever popular “us against the world” mentality can be used and as the results prove, these dogs have plenty of bite left.
Not satisfied to accept a good number, the old miners cap goes on to see if even more gold was available. At this juncture the underdogs were broken into two groups, one a relatively small underdog and the other the larger variety. With a standard number of four points placed on the home team for being such, two points were added making our pooch decently well bred, with a chance to win and cover the game presumably at six or less points. The other takes on a motlier mutt appearance being an underdog of 7 or more points, meaning the dog could be expected in many cases to roll over and play dead.
In the first category the shorter underdog performed about as expected with 6-8 record and 7-7 ATS mark, which was mildly disappointing. Those feeling were swiftly jettisoned when determining the play of larger road dogs. Here these NBA mongrels were a solid 8-9 SU. What was found was akin to a dog finding a box full of treats under the bed. These seemingly unsightly underdogs were a mouth watering 12-4-1 75% against the spread when catching 7 or more points on the road after dropping two straight home games.
The lesson taught is never underestimate the qualities of a dog when backed into a corner, be it in real life or in sports wagering.
Comment