"Super Bowl Sunday" Trends and Indexes 02/04

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Trends and Indexes
Sunday, February 4


Good Luck on day #35 of 2007!


NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.

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Dunkel Index – Super Bowl XLI

NFL
Dunkel Index - Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears


Sunday, February 4


Indianapolis vs. Chicago
There's a sense of relief for both teams simply making it to the Super Bowl. Indianapolis was able to finally get past New England in a big game with Peyton Manning delivering in the clutch. Chicago, after starting the season in a fashion that had people talking about a perfect season, was able to overcome a mid-season slump and Rex Grossman's erratic play to get its first playoff wins since 1995. Moreover both come into the game excelling at what they do best. The Colts' offense was unstoppable in the second half against New England, piling up 455 yards and scoring on six of their final eight drives to overcome an 18-point halftime deficit. The Bears' defense put the clamps on the much-publicized New Orleans ground attack, limiting Deuce McCallister and Reggie Bush to 37 rushing yards combined and 14 points. The big change for both will be leaving the home fields for Miami. Few teams played better at home than Indianapolis (10-0), but the road was a different story. Prior to the Colts' postseason win at Baltimore, they had lost four straight away from home, including a 44-17 setback in Jacksonville in Week 14. Chicago, by comparison, lost only once away from Soldier Field and that came by just four points at New England (17-13) in Week 12. The Bears are listed as a 7-point Vegas underdog, but that looks too high according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7).

Game 101-102: Indianapolis vs. Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.189; Chicago 135.162
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7); Under

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NFL – Long Sheet

NFL
Long Sheet


Sunday, February 4

Super Bowl XLI

INDIANAPOLIS (15 - 4) vs. CHICAGO (15 - 3) - 2/4/2007, 6:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL – Short Sheet

NFL
Short Sheet


Sunday, February 4th

Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis vs. Chicago, 6:25 EST

Indianapolis:
13-3 Over away off 3+ ATS wins
40-21 Over away vs. winning teams

Chicago:
1-12 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
1-7 ATS off a turnover margin of +4 or better

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Pro Football – Write up

NFL
Write-up

Sunday, February 4

The AFC dominated the NFC again this year, so you have team from better conference, with better QB, more experienced coach on game's biggest stage. I think the Colts are going to win.

If I was Russ Pernell, I wouldn't sleep Saturday night; he is the special teams' coach for the Colts. There are only two ways the Bears win this game, forcing turnovers, or special teams. Bears' special teams are way better than the Colts'; that is best chance for a Chicago upset. Good luck, Coach Pernell.

I like two prop bets; Joseph Addai, under 62.5 yards rushing, and the Bears, under 18.5 first downs. I think Adam Vinatieri finally wins a Super Bowl without having to work much. Colts, 28-13.

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NFL - Tips and Trends

NFL
Tips and Trends


Sunday, February 4

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears
Super Bowl XLI (CBS | 6:30 PM ET)

The Bears are feeding off their role as underdogs in the Super Bowl, and they have no issues proving they belong here and can win the biggest game of the year. "Anytime you're in an underdog role, you're that much more intense and focused and out for respect," said Chicago QB Rex Grossman, who may go down as the most scrutinized player in Super Bowl history due to his erratic play. AFC teams may have dominated their NFC counterparts during the regular season, but the Bears went 2-2, including a tough 17-13 loss at New England. EDGE: BEARS

While Grossman is at an obvious disadvantage against Indy counterpart Peyton Manning, insiders believe the key to this game will simply be turnovers. In Chicago's three losses this season, Grossman turned the ball over 12 times, with three interceptions and one fumble in each of those games. If he limits his turnovers and the Bears play up to their potential on defense and special teams, a straight-up win is not only possible, it's likely. EDGE: BEARS IF GOOD REX PLAYS, COLTS IF BAD REX PLAYS

Teams without a scoring defense ranked in the Top 8 at the end of the regular season have never won the Super Bowl. Indy ranked 23rd - allowing 22.5 points per game - while Chicago finished third. Even though Indy safety Bob Sanders has improved the team's run defense dramatically when he has played, the team does not play an opportunistic style and force many turnovers, creating just 32 compared to 47 for the Bears. BIG EDGE: BEARS

Some experts - along with the betting public - feel Manning finally has the monkey off his back of "failing to win the big game" and will thrive on the big stage in his first opportunity to win the Super Bowl. If anybody is due to win a championship, it's him. He never beat archrival Florida in college and has been linked to former Miami QB Dan Marino because of his statistical dominance yet lack of a title. Ironically, Manning may have more pressure on him to win this game than Grossman, but the public doesn't seem too worried. EDGE: COLTS

No touchdowns have been scored in the first quarter of the last five Super Bowls, and just 22 points total have been scored in the last seven combined. Nerves have definitely played a huge role early on as the two teams feel each other out offensively and defensively. BIG EDGE: UNDER

Chicago was a much better road team during the regular season, going 7-1 SU away from Soldier Field. Indy was 4-4, snapping a four-game road skid with an impressive 15-6 victory at Baltimore in the divisional round of the playoffs. The grass surface in Miami also favors the Bears because the Colts offense is much more explosive on the fast track of turf. EDGE: BEARS

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[pm530]

NFL – Preview

NFL
Preview

Sunday, February 4

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts will meet Rex Grossman and the Chicago Bears on Sunday, February 4 in Super Bowl XLI at Dolphin Stadium in Miami.

Oddsmakers currently have the Colts listed as 7-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game's total is sitting at 48½.

The Colts defeated New England 38-34 in the AFC Championship Game as a 3.5-point favorite last time out. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (47).

Manning completed 27-of-47 passes for 349 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while also running in for a score. Dallas Clark led Indianapolis with six catches for 137 yards and Joseph Addai rushed for 56 yards on 14 carries with a touchdown.

The Bears defeated New Orleans 39-14 as a 3-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).

Thomas Jones rushed for 123 yards on only 19 carries and found the end zone twice for Chicago in the win. Grossman completed 11-of-26 passes for 144 yards with a touchdown and Bernard Berrian caught five passes for 85 yards and a touchdown.


Regular season records:
Indianapolis: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS
Chicago: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS

Indianapolis most recently:
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 9-1
After playing New England are 9-1

Chicago most recently:
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 8-2
After playing New Orleans are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

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NFL
TREND SHEET

Sunday, February 4

INDIANAPOLIS vs. CHICAGO

• Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
  
• Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  
• Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  
• Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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NFL
BETTING TRENDS

Sunday, February 4

INDIANAPOLIS
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

CHICAGO
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

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NFL – Additional trends

NFL
Additional trends

Underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls and 4 of the last 5.

Over the last 11 Super Bowls favorites giving 7 points, or more, have gone 1-6-1 ATS.

- - - -

Indianapolis: Over is 7-2 in IND last 9 games as a road favorite.
Over is 8-3 in IND last 11 games on Grass.
IND are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games on Grass.

Chicago: Over is 10-1 in CHI last 11 home games.
Over is 13-3 in CHI last 16 games on Grass.
Over is 16-5-1 in CHI last 22 games overall.

- - - -

-The last eleven Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 8-3 SU & 3-6-1 ATS…
-The last 13 favorites to score 30 or less points are 1-11-1 ATS…
-Teams who score 27 or more points are 22-1 SU & 20-2-1 ATS…
-Teams who score less than 20 points are 0-22 SU & 3-18-1 ATS…
-Teams who outrush their opponent are 33-7 SU…
-The team with the higher scoring offense on the season is 12-3 SU in the last 15 games (Seattle last year!)…
-The team on the longer win streak entering the game is 22-15 SU…
-Teams who lost their final regular season game are 6-14 SU…
-The team with the higher win percentage is 27-10 SU, including 20-0 SU if they manage to score 24 or more points…
-Teams that turn the ball over more times than their opponent in the game have won the Super Bowl only three times (Pittsburgh last year!)

- - - -

Indianapolis (15-4) is 1-4 last five games away from its home dome, three of the four losses coming to teams that didn't make the playoffs. Chicago (15-3) is 7-1 away from home this season. The Bears rank third in the NFL allowing 15.9 ppg. The NFC is 3-1 ATS (1-3 SU) last four Super Bowls.

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NFL – Recent Trends

NFL
Recent Trends

Indianapolis:
Over is 7-2 in IND last 9 games as a road favorite.
Over is 8-3 in IND last 11 games on Grass.
IND are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games on Grass.

Chicago:
Over is 10-1 in CHI last 11 home games.
Over is 13-3 in CHI last 16 games on Grass.
Over is 16-5-1 in CHI last 22 games overall.

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NFL – In Depth Trends

NFL
In Depth Trends

Trends - Indianapolis vs. Chicago

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

Indianapolis
Colts are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Colts are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Colts are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games on Grass.
Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.


Chicago
Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.


O/U Trends

Indianapolis
Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 playoff road games.
Over is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 playoff games.
Over is 7-2 in Colts last 9 games as a road favorite.
Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 8-3 in Colts last 11 games on Grass.
Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 42-17-2 in Colts last 61 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 36-15-1 in Colts last 52 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


Chicago
Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 playoff games.
Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 playoff home games.
Over is 10-1-1 in Bears last 12 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 10-1 in Bears last 11 home games.
Over is 8-1 in Bears last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1-1 in Bears last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 6-1-1 in Bears last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Bears last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 13-3 in Bears last 16 games on Grass.
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 16-5-1 in Bears last 22 games overall.
Over is 6-2-1 in Bears last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 games as a home underdog.
Over is 5-2-1 in Bears last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 39-18-2 in Bears last 59 games as an underdog.
Under is 45-21 in Bears last 66 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.


Head to Head
No trends available.

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Six-Pack for Sunday

-- Kansas State 73, Texas 72; ESPN can get a camera crew ready for Selection Sunday in the Little Apple.

-- NC State 83, North Carolina 79. Sidney Lowe can coach; if he can recruit, Tobacco Road will be even dicier now.

-- Congrats to Iona Gaels, who got win #1 by beating Rider Saturday; Rider is alma mater of Richard Phelps.

-- Saturday was first time Tennessee played #1 team in AP basketball poll since 1969. You figure Kentucky was #1 in one of their two annual meetings since then, but no.

-- Oregon has only two road games left before the Pac-10 tourney starts; expect them to string some wins.

-- Kansas was up 3 with ball and 1:38 left at home vs A&M Saturday, and lost. Not good omen for the Jayhawks.

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Sunday's List of 13: Random thoughts on Super Sunday

13) Herm Edwards isn't at the Super Bowl, even though two of his best friends are coaching in it; he was in Lawrence for Kansas-A&M hoop game Saturday night, and says he isn't going to watch Super Bowl, he's going to the movies.

12) Which tells us that the two head coaches would rather not be coaching against each other, in biggest game of both of their careers.

11) Giants-Dolphins, in London, October 28; its home game for the Dolphins, major money grab for the NFL.

10) The best half-hour in television history airs Sunday, yes, Super Bowl XXXIV highlights, Rams-Titans. I watch Steve McNair scramble around, and I still think he's going to throw a TD pass to force overtime. I'm always glad when he doesn't

9) It strikes me funny when a team pulls off huge road win; as soon as buzzer sounds, head coach puts serious face on to shake hands with other coach, like he's almost sad he won.

8) Reminds me when Paul Newman beats Tom Cruise in pool in The Color of Money; he does the serious thing after match then goes outside and celebrates where he can't be seen.

7) If I was hiring a basketball coach for major D-I program, it would be cold day in hell before I hired someone who had never been a head coach before.

6) Watch the European Tour when Eldrick Woods is playing; is funny how hard announcers root against him. They get very excited anytime anyone else does anything, especially Ernie Els this weekend in Dubai.

5) One of the announcers starting talking about appearance fees for the Dubai event, then thought better of it, saying on air, "Well, we better not talk about that." Ya think? On PGA Tour, appearance fees aren't allowed, but they are in Europe.

4) Washington State scored 36 points in first half at Arizona State Saturday, then scored 12 in second, handing ASU their 11th Pac-10 loss in row, but shaky effort by Coogs.

3) Easy way to lose by 34: Charlotte was 2-29 from arc in loss at Xavier; Musketeers were 16-26. Usually a losing formula.

2) My reason for feeling queasy about Colts' chance to win on Sunday is that Bears won a game this season they trailed by 20 in, with 10:00 left, and their offense didn't score any of the 21 points in the rally.

1) My main reason for picking Indianapolis in Super Bowl is that I'm not sure Rex Grossman would be the best QB in the Arena League, and if you press me for names, I'll give you Andy Kelly and Aaron Garcia as two who are comparable.

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College Basketball – Long Sheet

NCAAB
Long Sheet



Sunday, February 4

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ST JOHNS (12 - 10) at CINCINNATI (10 - 11) - 2/4/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST JOHNS is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST JOHNS is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST JOHNS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 this season.
ST JOHNS is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games since 1997.
ST JOHNS is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
ST JOHNS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
ST JOHNS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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DAYTON (14 - 7) at ST JOSEPHS (12 - 9) - 2/4/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DAYTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games this season.
DAYTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road lined games this season.
DAYTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DAYTON is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
DAYTON is 2-1 against the spread versus ST JOSEPHS over the last 3 seasons
DAYTON is 2-1 straight up against ST JOSEPHS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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LASALLE (9 - 13) at TEMPLE (8 - 12) - 2/4/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LASALLE is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
TEMPLE is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in February games since 1997.
LASALLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LASALLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LASALLE is 2-1 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 2-1 straight up against LASALLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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FLORIDA ST (16 - 6) at DUKE (18 - 4) - 2/4/2007, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 2-1 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 2-1 straight up against FLORIDA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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CANISIUS (11 - 11) at NIAGARA (12 - 11) - 2/4/2007, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CANISIUS is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CANISIUS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
CANISIUS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CANISIUS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CANISIUS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CANISIUS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CANISIUS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
NIAGARA is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 18-32 ATS (-17.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CANISIUS is 2-1 against the spread versus NIAGARA over the last 3 seasons
NIAGARA is 4-0 straight up against CANISIUS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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ST PETERS (3 - 18) at SIENA (12 - 10) - 2/4/2007, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST PETERS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
SIENA is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SIENA is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SIENA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SIENA is 2-2 against the spread versus ST PETERS over the last 3 seasons
ST PETERS is 4-1 straight up against SIENA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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