Super Bowl (Freebie) Thread ...

[wayne1218]

Whats a Haley Joel Osment???

LMAO ... A rich kid!

[phonepole]

CBS Experts ...

Indy 4
Chicago 2

4-2..... i guess the under's the play then

[Spark]

For the first time in 10 years, the home teams prevailed in both conference championship games to set the stage for a Feb. 4th meeting between the Bears and Colts in Miami.

Chicago removed Cinderella’s slipper from New Orleans to take the NFC crown, winning 39-14 at Soldier Field behind a defense that forced four turnovers and produced a game-changing safety in the third quarter. Running backs Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson combined for 183 yards and three touchdowns and much-maligned quarterback Rex Grossman recovered from a rather ugly beginning to pass for 105 yards and a score in the second half as the Bears won for the 15th time this season.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis got a big monkey off of its back by defeating archrival New England, 38-34, in a wild finish at the RCA Dome. The Colts overcame an 18-point deficit and won it with exactly one minute remaining on rookie running back Joseph Addai’s 3-yard touchdown run. Quarterback Peyton Manning, the only player to have 4,000 yards passing in six consecutive seasons and a two-time league MVP, threw for 349 yards and one touchdown with one interception to erase years of playoff frustration.

If defense wins championships, then the Bears have the edge. While Chicago ranked fifth in total defense and third in scoring defense (255 points allowed) and limited the Saints’ top-ranked offense to just a pair of touchdowns, Indianapolis gave up 173 yards rushing per game to rank at the bottom of the NFL and 360 points to rank 23rd. The Colts defense improved in the playoffs, holding Kansas City and Baltimore to a combined 14 points and stopping New England when it mattered most.

Manning, after a regular season that saw him get sacked a league-low 15 times and throw a career-low nine interceptions, has been dropped five times in the playoffs and picked off six times. It’s still unlikely the Bears will shut him down, unless the weather in South Florida contributes.

Since 1990, when the present NFL playoff system was adopted, a No. 1 seed in either conference has advanced to the Super Bowl 17 times. Chicago will try to become the ninth such club to win it but is a 7.5-point underdog. The point total opened at 49.

PREDICTION
No matter which way you slice it, it’s tough to make a case for the Bears. The AFC has captured five of the last six Super Bowls and seven of the last nine, and also dominated the NFC in head-to-head matchups in 2006. Manning’s time has come.

INDIANAPOLIS 24 CHICAGO 19

INDIANAPOLIS X-FACTORS:
- The AFC has won seven of the last nine Super Bowls, going 5-3-1 ATS.
- The Super Bowl Favorite is 20-17-3 ATS, but with just one cover in the last five.

CHICAGO X-FACTORS:
- Seven of the last 10 Super Bowls surpassed the “Over” number.
- The Bears trail the all-time series with the Colts by a 22-17 margin.

[wayne1218]

4-2..... i guess the under's the play then

YES ... And a "Safety" prop wager!

[Spark]

Jeff Haney on this year's Super Bowl betting orgy, which includes an opening point spread of the 'key number' 7


When oddsmakers posted the point spread on Super Bowl XLI shortly after the Indianapolis Colts sealed their victory in the AFC title game Sunday night, it looked as if the betting line on the big game would settle on a nice round football number.

Seven points.

A couple of Las Vegas sports books opened the Colts a slightly shorter favorite against the Chicago Bears, at 6 or 6 1/2. But after the first round of bets, 7 appeared to be the number.

It's a good football point spread. "A touchdown," in shorthand, 7 is easy for recreational gamblers to grasp. It rolls off the tongue, as opposed to something like, "3 1/2, minus-120-slash-even money."

In retrospect, however, it might not have been the best number.

The point spread has leaked to 6 1/2 points at several major Las Vegas casinos this week in response to wagers backing the Bears as an underdog. The line was 6 1/2 by midweek at all Station Casinos properties, all Coast Casinos properties and the Palms, for example.

Other books, such as Leroy's and Caesars Palace and its related properties, had Chicago at plus-7, minus-120, meaning Bears bettors were required to risk $1.20 - rather than the traditional $1.10 - for each $1 they were trying to win. (Colts bettors could lay 7 points at even money.)

The move off the point spread of 7 was significant because 7 is a so-called "key number" in NFL betting. The differential in the final score is more likely to land precisely on 7 points than any other number except 3. By comparison, a move in the point spread involving "dead numbers" - say, from 5 1/2 to 5 points - carries much less weight.

"That tells me that maybe the right (point spread) number was closer to 4 1/2, not 7," said Rich Baccellieri, sports book director at the Palms.

Asked whether professional sports bettors or recreational gamblers have more influence on the direction of the Super Bowl betting line, Baccellieri said he believes a dichotomy exists. The pros, sometimes called "wise guys" in gambling parlance, hold more sway than "the public" in the early betting period, the few days after the line is posted. As it gets closer to the week of the game, money from recreational bettors - who make smaller bets, but a lot more of them - starts to pack a punch.

"The pros can take their shots early," Baccellieri said Thursday. "From here on out, it's in the hands of the public."

With a Super Bowl betting handle projected to approach or exceed last year's record $94.5 million in Nevada, bookmakers could find themselves rooting against any result in which the Colts win by exactly 7 points. If that happens, casinos would have to refund a big chunk of the handle to bettors.

The Super Bowl's final score has not landed right on the point spread since Super Bowl XXXIV on Jan. 30, 2000, when the St. Louis Rams beat the Tennessee Titans 23-16 as a 7-point favorite (see accompanying chart).

Propositions

Las Vegas Hilton oddsmakers maintained their reputation as kings of the Super Bowl proposition wagers this week, releasing their annual book-length selection of props - offbeat, unusual wagers - on the big game.

They included plenty of their signature "cross-sport" props, a kind of sports betting brain teaser popular among gamblers. The performances on Super Bowl Sunday of NBA stars such as Jason Kidd and Vince Carter, college basketball players such as Dionte Christmas of Temple, golfers such as Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh, even Manchester United of the English Premier League, among many others, are tied to the Super Bowl in betting propositions.

Bettors can have fun with cross-sport props while still analyzing them rationally. For example, one pits Sidney Crosby's shots on goal for the Pittsburgh Penguins against the total number of interceptions in the Super Bowl. The line is the number of interceptions plus 1 1/2 against Crosby's shots, minus-110 either way.

I like the interceptions on that prop. Here's why: At the Palms, the over/under on total interceptions is 2 1/2, under minus-150, which tells me the "correct" number of interceptions is about 2.3. Crosby averages about 2.8 shots, and has exceeded three shots only three times in his past 18 games (finishing with four each time). The Montreal Canadiens, the Penguins' opponent, are better than average defensively.

Even if I err on the side of caution and project two interceptions and three shots, interceptions plus 1 1/2 figures to win about 60 percent of the time, according to a mathematical analysis using the Poisson distribution, as detailed in Stanford Wong's book "Sharp Sports Betting."

[Spark]

By BRIAN COSTELLO
NY POST


January 28, 2007 -- Like most of America, Robert Walker stared at the TV in February 2002 and watched as Adam Vinatieri's 48-yard field goal won the Patriots Super Bowl XXXVI. Unlike most of America, Walker figures the kick saved his job.

Walker is the director of the race and sports book at MGM Mirage in Las Vegas. He sets the lines for 14 different properties in Vegas, and on this day he was sweating out the largest bet he'd ever taken on the big game.

Someone bet $4.6 million on the Rams to beat the Patriots on that day. When Vinatieri's kick cleared the crossbar, Walker may have been the happiest man in America.

"I've always had a soft spot for the Patriots and Adam Vinatieri since then," Walker said. "If he doesn't make that field goal, you might be talking to someone else right now."

Next Sunday is the biggest holiday of the year in Las Vegas. Last year, a record $94 million was bet legally on the Super Bowl. This year, Vegas hopes to reach $100 million. The men in charge of bringing in all that money spent last weekend trying to figure out the best point spread to make the most amount of money.

Set the number too high and the underdog takes in too much money. Set it too low and everyone jumps on the favorite.

For Walker and his brethren, these are the two biggest weeks of the year. From the regular betting line to prop bets, they have to make placing a bet on the big game as tempting as possible.

This year's matchup between the Colts and Bears has them thinking big bucks.

"I think it's a phenomenal matchup," said Chuck Esposito, the assistant VP of the race and sports book at Caesars Palace. "The Bears are one of the most popular teams with the public. The Colts have arguably the most popular player in Peyton Manning. You have the Colts offense vs. the Bears defense."

Each of the sports-book directors interviewed said they entered last weekend with an idea of what the line would be for each potential matchup. Walker even posted lines at the Mirage for each scenario to gauge the public's feelings. They all felt the Colts would be around 61/2- or 7-point favorites if they wound up matched with the Bears. When watching the games, they paid attention for any injuries or performances that might affect the way the public would bet.

John Avello, the director at race and sports operations at Wynn Las Vegas, thought the line would be Colts minus-61/2, but then decided on 7 after watching the Colts' performance in the second half against the Patriots.

"In the third and fourth quarter, all cylinders were firing," Avello said. "That was the last impression left in watchers' or bettors' minds. I'm thinking we have Peyton Manning, one of the best passers, against the Bears, who have a quarterback [Rex Grossman] that people are unsure of. But the Bears do have a great following. Instead of 61/2, I'm going to use 7."

The line was posted immediately after the Colts-Patriots game ended last Sunday. Walker, who posted the Colts minus-61/2, saw the first seven or eight bets come in on the Colts and moved it to 7.

Most directors rely on staffs of handicappers to help them come up with the number. Once the line is posted, plenty of other people also offer up opinions.

"When I post that number, I get people running back telling me I made a mistake," Walker said. "If some think it's too high and some think it's too low, I know I have it right."

After the line and over/under are set, the sports book staffs try to finalize their prop bets, which have increased in popularity in recent years. Esposito said his staff has been working on them for the last six weeks. Caesars is credited with staring the prop bet when it posted odds on William "Refrigerator" Perry scoring a touchdown in Super Bowl XX.

"We'll have 200 to 250 different prop bets on the board," Esposito said. "You name it, we've got it on the board."

[Spark]

Super Bowl Intangibles Part I: Turnovers
Matt Fargo

Super Bowl Intangibles Part I: Turnovers

Today:

Turnovers

Calling turnovers is next to impossible but with a ball-hawking defense like the Bears, it can become more predictable. Chicago was 1st in the NFL in takeaways during the regular season with 44 but it slid off toward the end of the season. The defense forced 3.3 turnovers per game through the first 12 games but that averaged slipped to 1.3 during the last four games. In a nail-biter against Seattle, the defense forced only one turnover while the rout over New Orleans saw four so it’s obvious how those affect the outcome.

Saying the Bears are going to win the turnover battle is not a very bold prediction but against the Colts, it’s not as cut and dry. Indianapolis was 4th best during the regular season at holding onto the ball as it gave it up only 19 times including a 2nd best nine interceptions. However, the postseason has seen a reversal of this. The Colts have turned it over six times, all interceptions with two of those being returned for scores. Indianapolis has also fumbled the ball six times but fortunately has not lost any.

On the other side, the Colts were able to force only 26 turnovers during the regular season for an average of 1.6 per game. They have grabbed eight during the postseason for an average of 2.7 per game and it’s no coincidence that they are where they are partly due to this increase. None were more important than the Marlin Jackson interception of Tom Brady on the final drive of the AFC Championship, a drive that neither Peyton Manning nor any Colts fan could stomach to watch.

While the Bears led the league in takeaways, they were near the top at giving the ball away as well. Chicago was fifth in the league with 36 turnovers, the most of any playoff team. They were in the top 10 in both interceptions and fumbles and 25 of the 36 turnovers were directly by Rex Grossman – 20 interceptions and five fumbles. The Bears have turned it over only twice during the playoffs, both against the Seahawks, so while forcing turnovers is a factor, giving them away plays just as important a role.

Both teams are on the plus side in turnover margin during the postseason and if the quarterbacks keep up their respective paces, there should be a clear-cut turnover battle winner. Surprisingly, that would be the Bears as Grossman has been more efficient than Manning in taking care of the ball. It’s difficult to fathom Manning having another bad game. He has tossed six interceptions in three games after going four straight years of having 10 or fewer interceptions the entire regular season.

At the same time, it’s hard to fathom Grossman having another mistake-free game. This guy was incredible during the first part of the season then that game at Arizona occurred with that shoddy 10.7 quarterback rating. Grossman tossed 14 interceptions in a span of seven games before coming on strong once again in weeks 14 though 16. A horrendous game against Green Bay closed the year as did questions about his work ethic. He is the only quarterback to have seven ratings above 100 and five below 40.

Does this really give us much to go by? It’s hard to say. A determination could easily be made if we knew which Manning and which Grossman shows up but we don’t and that is what makes it both difficult and fun at the same time. The fumbles will likely be a wash as the weather played a huge factor in the three fumbles that New Orleans had on Sunday and it isn’t likely the Colts are going to duplicate that. To claim victory, the Bears need to win the turnover battle which at this point doesn’t seem likely.

[Spark]

The Rex Grossman Factor
by John Ryan

With all of the media attention devoted to how good Manning is and how very bad Grossman is, I decided to do a little statistical research. Not that I don't believe the media once in while, but it seemed that we have reached a psychological extreme where the public has made Grossman far worse than he truly is at this point.

First, Grossman does not have the worst QB rating in the history of the Super Bowl. In fact there are 11 other QB’s who started in a Super Bowl that had a QB rating than Grossman in the regular season. Vince Ferragamo (LA Rams – Super Bowl XIV) has the distinction of having the lowest regular season rating of any QB in Super Bowl history with a 49.0.

Of those 11 QB’s with worse ratings, seven of them became Super Bowl champs. Also, Grossman has completed more passes this season than Joe Namath did in 1968. He has thrown for more yards than Roger Staubach did in 1977. He completed a higher percentage of his passes than Johnny Unitas in 1970. He has thrown more TD passes than Joe Montana did in 1981 and has fewer interceptions than Terry Bradshaw had in 1979. Plus, he has a higher passer rating than Len Dawson did in 1969.

That almost sounds like a description more for Manning, but it does show that many times the best QB does not necessarily win the game. This is a team sport, and sure it is led by the QB, but let's not lose sight that the Bears are the NFC Champions.

[Spark]

DAVE TULEY
DAILY RACING FORM

LAS VEGAS – In the Thursday column during the NFL regular season, I always offer up trends and betting angles. Some have merit and some are statistical anomalies; sometimes it pays to follow them and other times it doesn't.

Well, if the Super Bowl is the ultimate game of the year, it's also the watershed game when it comes to looking at trends and seeing if they, well, hold water.

Anyone reading through this will find several trends that seemingly support the side they want to play, but keep in mind there's just as many trends in favor of the other side.

The line for this year's game between the Colts and Bears hasn't totally settled yet. The consensus number the past week and a half has been Colts -7, but money has shown on the Bears and several books have gone to 6 1/2 before having it bet back to 7.

With 7 being the second-most common winning margin in pro football (after 3), bookmakers are reluctant to move off that number in case it lands and they get sided (meaning they would refund all the bets made at -7 or +7 but lose the vast majority of bets they would take on the favorite at -6 1/2). At most Las Vegas casinos, instead of moving the line, they've just adjusted the price attached to it. Instead of going with the standard -110 on each side, books have opted to go to Bears +7 and -115 or -120 and offer the Colts at -7 and -105 or even-money in order to balance out their action.

The 7-point spread is the basis of a trend that's been getting a lot of notice this past week. In the last seven Super Bowls with a closing point spread of exactly 7, the underdog was 5-1-1 against the spread, the most recent being the Patriots' 3-point wins over the Eagles and Panthers two and three years ago, respectively. The lone favorite to cover a 7-point spread was the Redskins in a 37-24 win over the Bills in Super Bowl XXVI. The push was the Rams' 23-16 win over the Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV.

If you believe that trend is a good omen for the Bears, keep in mind that if the closing line gets bet down to 6 1/2, the only previous Super Bowl at that number was won 52-17 by the favored Cowboys over the Bills in Super Bowl XXVII.

So, while this column is meant to be helpful, there's a good chance it'll just confuse those who are still undecided about whom to play in this year's Big Game.

More Super Bowl historical trends:

* Despite several competitive games in recent years, many people still think of Super Bowls as games in which the favorites score blowout wins. In reality, favorites are only

20-17-3 against the spread and 3-6-2 the past 11 years. Speaking of favorite/underdog trends, dogs went 140-106-7 (57 percent) during the regular season this year and are 6-3-1 in the playoffs.

* For a while, the NFC ruled in the Super Bowl, winning it 13 straight years from 1985-97 and going 10-2-1 against the spread in that span. But the AFC has battled back and the NFC now leads only 21-19 straight up and 19-18-3 against the spread. Going back to this year's regular-season stats, the AFC was clearly dominant as it went 36-27-1 (57 percent) against the spread.

* If you truly think the Colts are going to win the game, you should probably just go ahead and lay the points. Despite the Patriots' non-covers in recent years, the winner is still 31-6-3 against the spread.

* There is a theory that the better team is helped by a two-week gap between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl. Favorites are 17-11-2 against the spread when there is a two-week gap, as there is this year.

* Nevada sports books didn't start taking over/under bets on the Super Bowl until 1982, when they posted a total on the 49ers-Bengals game at 47. That game ended up in a push, with the 49ers winning, 26-21. Since then, the over holds a 15-9 edge. The trend improves to 13-5 if you use only the games with the two-week gap, though in the last two years the Super Bowl has gone under.

Trends involving the Bears

The Bears are 1-0 both straight up and against the spread in the Super Bowl, thanks to their 46-10 win over the Patriots in Super Bowl XX. The Bears are one of only five teams with an undefeated record in the Super Bowl.

* As for this year's team, the Bears are 15-3 overall and 11-7 against the spread. When looking at a neutral-site game like the Super Bowl, it's usually a good idea to see how teams perform in road games. The Bears were 5-3 against the spread away from Soldier Field during the regular season.

* In totals wagering, the Bears are 13-4-1 with the over, including going over in both playoff wins. They were also 4-3-1 with the over on the road.

Trends involving the Colts

The Colts are 1-1 in Super Bowl appearances, both when the franchise was based in Baltimore. In Super Bowl III, the Colts famously failed as 17-point favorites in a 16-7 loss to the Jets. The Colts then upset the Cowboys 16-13 as 1-point underdogs in Super Bowl V.

* This year's Colts are 15-4 overall (they've played one more game than the Bears since they didn't have a first-round bye) and 10-7-2 against the spread. They were a subpar 3-5 on the road during the regular season before beating the Ravens on the road in the divisional playoffs.

* The Colts are 10-9 with the under - 8-8 with during the regular season before going under in their first two playoff wins and going over in the victory over the Patriots.

[Spark]

Friday, February 2, 2007
Boston Herald

With no football scheduled last Sunday, fabled North End restaurant Terramia played host to a fund-raiser in support of the Joslyn Clinic and its fight to cure juvenile diabetes. I was there at a table for 12 along with Uncles Lennie, Mickey and Dominic, plus the likes of Barry, Peter the Predator and Philadelphia Phil. It didn’t take long for the talk to turn to gambling.

Barry likened the Indianapolis Colts to the 2004 Red Sox, saying something about the job being halfway done and that their ultimate goal was winning the Super Bowl, something he saw them easily doing on Sunday.

No sooner had Barry given up the soap box when Uncle Mickey called him a square. Intoning Chicago as underrated, he blurted the Bears fan mantra of surprise turnovers and punctuated his point with a call for the Bears winning outright.

While I may be a bit harsh on Mickey, I think the Bears are the real square side in this Super Bowl.

They hobbled through the end of the season in the second-weakest division in the league. They should have lost their first playoff game to the undermanned Seahawks. And while they defeated the Saints to get to Miami, the NFC title game turned on a Drew Brees brain cramp resulting in a safety.

Going back to that Bears-Saints tilt, Imade that game my big play on Championship Sunday, scoring $400 when the Bears covered what I deemed a cheap number against an overhyped team. My Silky Sullivan-like run through the postseason continued when Local 22’s engine ran out of gas in Nap Town.

In a very unpopular play and one that prompted a voluminous pile of bile in my e-mail box, the truly faithful picked up $250 with the Colts cover.

Fortified with $1,340 of the man’s green thanks to a 20-16-1 mark by the number, the season comes down to one game.

Like my friend Barry, I equate the 2006 Colts with the ’04 Red Sox. Both scourged demons (Patriots and Yankees) and used come-from-behind finishes. The Red Sox didn’t fold against the Cardinals, a true paper tiger on the diamond. And Sunday, I see the Bears as another paper tiger.

cw-3My great fear in backing the Colts is their special teams. Adam Vinatieri doesn’t kick deep, and Foxboro’s finest burned Indy by returning kickoffs and punts for huge chunks. The Bears’ Devin Hester is a force, but this is the NFL, and the Colts have had two weeks to shore up this weak link, and I hope they succeed. Other than that, nothing on the NFC representative scares me.

The Bears play in a vastly inferior conference and come into the ultimate game on shaky stilts missing a few key bodies. I liken this game to Super Bowl XXXIII between the Falcons and Broncos, when gamblers who would rather poke their eye with a sharp stick than bet an underdog, suddenly decided to back the Falcons. Denver diced Atlanta with ease, 34-19.

I see the Colts winning and making the number. Looking to rendezvous at Vitea on the Malecon in Puerto Vallarta, where we can swap stories over snifters of Patron and platters of barbecued red snapper, I’m tossing $550 on the Colts laying 7 in my final bet of the year knowing that 2006 will mark the 20th winning season in 24 years playing by the numbers in the Herald.

[wayne1218]

Bump

[Kaptain]

Kaptains "Daily Read" from A-Sea

2-04-07
Sunday

SuperBowl Prediction by the Old Kaptain and his staff (crew) of clowns.........

We've carefully evaluated this game, and had many meetings regarding this Final NFL game for the 2006 season...

Pondering some updated statistics , and utilizing some outside sources , not too mention the Inside Info from our main man , we have come to the point of releasing our SB play........

One more meeting was held, and we decided to ponder our decision overnight ...

The final consensus came out to play the Bears +7 ....That's right the Boards (Crew) consensus said to take the Bears +7, and then Tease (7 pt) the Bears and the OVER....If you want to make , then follow the Old Kaptain, he's hit the last 40 SB's in a row, and he's the ....

Predicted score
Bears 27
Colts 23

If the game doesn't cover, then consider yourselves, by following me, as having been ...

gl to all---whichever way you go.....keep reading the "Daily Shitter " for all your Sports Needs, and we need Sponsors....