Friday Trends and Indexes 02/02

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Trends and Indexes
Friday, February 2


Good Luck on day #33 of 2007!


NOTE: As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.

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[pm530]

Dunkel Index – Super Bowl XLI (February 4)

NFL
Dunkel Index - Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears


Sunday, February 4


Indianapolis vs. Chicago
There's a sense of relief for both teams simply making it to the Super Bowl. Indianapolis was able to finally get past New England in a big game with Peyton Manning delivering in the clutch. Chicago, after starting the season in a fashion that had people talking about a perfect season, was able to overcome a mid-season slump and Rex Grossman's erratic play to get its first playoff wins since 1995. Moreover both come into the game excelling at what they do best. The Colts' offense was unstoppable in the second half against New England, piling up 455 yards and scoring on six of their final eight drives to overcome an 18-point halftime deficit. The Bears' defense put the clamps on the much-publicized New Orleans ground attack, limiting Deuce McCallister and Reggie Bush to 37 rushing yards combined and 14 points. The big change for both will be leaving the home fields for Miami. Few teams played better at home than Indianapolis (10-0), but the road was a different story. Prior to the Colts' postseason win at Baltimore, they had lost four straight away from home, including a 44-17 setback in Jacksonville in Week 14. Chicago, by comparison, lost only once away from Soldier Field and that came by just four points at New England (17-13) in Week 12. The Bears are listed as a 7-point Vegas underdog, but that looks too high according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7).

Game 101-102: Indianapolis vs. Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.189; Chicago 135.162
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7); Under

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[pm530]

NFL – Long Sheet (February 4)

NFL
Long Sheet


Sunday, February 4

Super Bowl XLI

INDIANAPOLIS (15 - 4) vs. CHICAGO (15 - 3) - 2/4/2007, 6:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL – Short Sheet (February 4)

NFL
Short Sheet


Sunday, February 4th

Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis vs. Chicago, 6:25 EST

Indianapolis:
13-3 Over away off 3+ ATS wins
40-21 Over away vs. winning teams

Chicago:
1-12 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
1-7 ATS off a turnover margin of +4 or better

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[pm530]

NFL - Tips and Trends (February 4)

NFL
Tips and Trends


Sunday, February 4

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears
Super Bowl XLI (CBS | 6:30 PM ET)
The Bears are feeding off their role as underdogs in the Super Bowl, and they have no issues proving they belong here and can win the biggest game of the year. "Anytime you're in an underdog role, you're that much more intense and focused and out for respect," said Chicago QB Rex Grossman, who may go down as the most scrutinized player in Super Bowl history due to his erratic play. AFC teams may have dominated their NFC counterparts during the regular season, but the Bears went 2-2, including a tough 17-13 loss at New England. EDGE: BEARS

While Grossman is at an obvious disadvantage against Indy counterpart Peyton Manning, insiders believe the key to this game will simply be turnovers. In Chicago's three losses this season, Grossman turned the ball over 12 times, with three interceptions and one fumble in each of those games. If he limits his turnovers and the Bears play up to their potential on defense and special teams, a straight-up win is not only possible, it's likely. EDGE: BEARS IF GOOD REX PLAYS, COLTS IF BAD REX PLAYS

Teams without a scoring defense ranked in the Top 8 at the end of the regular season have never won the Super Bowl. Indy ranked 23rd - allowing 22.5 points per game - while Chicago finished third. Even though Indy safety Bob Sanders has improved the team's run defense dramatically when he has played, the team does not play an opportunistic style and force many turnovers, creating just 32 compared to 47 for the Bears. BIG EDGE: BEARS

Some experts - along with the betting public - feel Manning finally has the monkey off his back of "failing to win the big game" and will thrive on the big stage in his first opportunity to win the Super Bowl. If anybody is due to win a championship, it's him. He never beat archrival Florida in college and has been linked to former Miami QB Dan Marino because of his statistical dominance yet lack of a title. Ironically, Manning may have more pressure on him to win this game than Grossman, but the public doesn't seem too worried. EDGE: COLTS

No touchdowns have been scored in the first quarter of the last five Super Bowls, and just 22 points total have been scored in the last seven combined. Nerves have definitely played a huge role early on as the two teams feel each other out offensively and defensively. BIG EDGE: UNDER

Chicago was a much better road team during the regular season, going 7-1 SU away from Soldier Field. Indy was 4-4, snapping a four-game road skid with an impressive 15-6 victory at Baltimore in the divisional round of the playoffs. The grass surface in Miami also favors the Bears because the Colts offense is much more explosive on the fast track of turf. EDGE: BEARS

[pm530]

NFL – Additional trends (February 4)

NFL
Additional trends

Underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls and 4 of the last 5.

Over the last 11 Super Bowls favorites giving 7 points, or more, have gone 1-6-1 ATS.

- - - -

Indianapolis: Over is 7-2 in IND last 9 games as a road favorite.
Over is 8-3 in IND last 11 games on Grass.
IND are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games on Grass.

Chicago: Over is 10-1 in CHI last 11 home games.
Over is 13-3 in CHI last 16 games on Grass.
Over is 16-5-1 in CHI last 22 games overall.

- - - -

-The last eleven Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 8-3 SU & 3-6-1 ATS…
-The last 13 favorites to score 30 or less points are 1-11-1 ATS…
-Teams who score 27 or more points are 22-1 SU & 20-2-1 ATS…
-Teams who score less than 20 points are 0-22 SU & 3-18-1 ATS…
-Teams who outrush their opponent are 33-7 SU…
-The team with the higher scoring offense on the season is 12-3 SU in the last 15 games (Seattle last year!)…
-The team on the longer win streak entering the game is 22-15 SU…
-Teams who lost their final regular season game are 6-14 SU…
-The team with the higher win percentage is 27-10 SU, including 20-0 SU if they manage to score 24 or more points…
-Teams that turn the ball over more times than their opponent in the game have won the Super Bowl only three times (Pittsburgh last year!)

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[pm530]

NFL – Preview (February 4)

NFL
Preview

Sunday, February 4

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears

Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts will meet Rex Grossman and the Chicago Bears on Sunday, February 4 in Super Bowl XLI at Dolphin Stadium in Miami.

Oddsmakers currently have the Colts listed as 7-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game's total is sitting at 48½.

The Colts defeated New England 38-34 in the AFC Championship Game as a 3.5-point favorite last time out. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (47).

Manning completed 27-of-47 passes for 349 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while also running in for a score. Dallas Clark led Indianapolis with six catches for 137 yards and Joseph Addai rushed for 56 yards on 14 carries with a touchdown.

The Bears defeated New Orleans 39-14 as a 3-point favorite in the NFC Championship Game. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).

Thomas Jones rushed for 123 yards on only 19 carries and found the end zone twice for Chicago in the win. Grossman completed 11-of-26 passes for 144 yards with a touchdown and Bernard Berrian caught five passes for 85 yards and a touchdown.


Regular season records:
Indianapolis: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS
Chicago: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS

Indianapolis most recently:
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 9-1
After playing New England are 9-1

Chicago most recently:
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 8-2
After playing New Orleans are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

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NFL
TREND SHEET

Sunday, February 4

INDIANAPOLIS vs. CHICAGO

• Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
  
• Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  
• Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  
• Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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NFL
BETTING TRENDS

Sunday, February 4

INDIANAPOLIS
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

CHICAGO
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

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[pm530]

NFL – Recent Trends

NFL
Recent Trends

Indianapolis:
Over is 7-2 in IND last 9 games as a road favorite.
Over is 8-3 in IND last 11 games on Grass.
IND are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games on Grass.

Chicago:
Over is 10-1 in CHI last 11 home games.
Over is 13-3 in CHI last 16 games on Grass.
Over is 16-5-1 in CHI last 22 games overall.

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[pm530]

NFL – In Depth Trends

NFL
In Depth Trends

Trends - Indianapolis vs. Chicago

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

Indianapolis
Colts are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Colts are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.
Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Colts are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games on Grass.
Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff road games.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.


Chicago
Bears are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.


O/U Trends

Indianapolis
Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 playoff road games.
Over is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 playoff games.
Over is 7-2 in Colts last 9 games as a road favorite.
Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 8-3 in Colts last 11 games on Grass.
Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 42-17-2 in Colts last 61 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 36-15-1 in Colts last 52 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


Chicago
Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 playoff games.
Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 playoff home games.
Over is 10-1-1 in Bears last 12 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 10-1 in Bears last 11 home games.
Over is 8-1 in Bears last 9 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1-1 in Bears last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 6-1-1 in Bears last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Bears last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 13-3 in Bears last 16 games on Grass.
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 16-5-1 in Bears last 22 games overall.
Over is 6-2-1 in Bears last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 games as a home underdog.
Over is 5-2-1 in Bears last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 39-18-2 in Bears last 59 games as an underdog.
Under is 45-21 in Bears last 66 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.


Head to Head
No trends available.

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[pm530]

College Basketball – write up

NCAAB
Write up


Friday, February 2

-- Not only is Princeton the only winless (0-2) team in Ivy, they lost 79-41 to Seton Hall club that lost three games in row prior to that. Tigers are 5-1 in last six games vs Yale, winning two of last three here. Yale is 3-1 in Ivy; road team covered all four games.

-- Cornell won last three games, allowing 47 ppg; they're 5-1 in last six games vs Dartmouth, winning two of three in Hanover: 64-60/54-67/68-62. Dartmouth is 7-4 in last eleven games, and 2-2 in Ivy, with all four games decided by seven or less points.

-- Columbia lost last two visits to Harvard, 69-64/78-71; they lost last three games, scoring 46.3 ppg, shooting 27.3-38.3-34.0% on FGs. Harvard is 2-2 in Ivy, but now its 7-foot center's eligibility is over. Even with him, three of four foes shot 50%+ from floor.

-- Penn is 4-0 vs Brown last two years, winning last two visits to this site, 74-68/79-62. Quakers won first two Ivy games, by 18,26 pts- they went 2-1 vs Philly teams since, beating LaSalle, Temple by combined three pts. Brown is 1-3 in Ivy, losing by 14,4,4 pts.

-- Manhattan is 4-2 in last six games vs Niagara, with its last two visits here decided by combined total of three pts; Jaspers are somehow 5-0 on MAAC road, 3-3 at home; their last two games were decided by total of five pts. Niagara 2-2 at home in league.

-- Visitor is 4-2 in last six Fairfield-Canisius games, with Griffins winning matchup here LY, 87-71. Stags won last five games, are 2-3 on MAAC road, winning last two. Canisius also won five in row; underdog is 5-0 vs spread in their MAAC home games.

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[pm530]

Pro Basketball – write up

NBA
Write-up


Friday, February 2

Hot Teams
-- 76ers are 5-3 in their last eight games.
-- Nets are 14-3 vs spread in their last seventeen games, but are 2-4 SU in last six.
-- Pacers won four of their last five games.
-- Clippers won six of their last seven games.
-- Toronto won six of its last eight games. Atlanta won four of its last five games, covered five of six.
-- Bobcats are 10-7 in their last seventeen games.
-- Pistons won five of their last seven games.
-- Hornets covered nine of their last eleven games.
-- Bulls won six of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Warriors lost five of their last seven games.
-- Orlando lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Lakers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Celtics lost their last thirteen games (5-8 vs spread).
-- Cavaliers lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Bucks lost thirteen of their last fifteen games.
-- Minnesota lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Nuggets lost last four games, by 5,10,4,9 points. Portland lost five of its last six road games.
-- Seattle lost four of its last five games.

Series Records
-- Home side won last three Warrior-76er games.
-- Nets won last four vs Orlando, by 11,7,3,7 points.
-- Home side won last three Laker-Pacer games.
-- Celtics lost 100-77 at Clippers December 27 (+7).
-- Hawks are 2-1 vs Toronto this season: 111-102/97-93/92-105.
-- Home side won both Charlotte-Cleveland games this year.
-- Home side is 7-3 in last ten Detroit-Milwaukee games.
-- Visitor won both Timberwolf-Hornet games this season.
-- Nuggets, Blazers split pair of games this season.
-- Sonics lost 99-84 at Chicago Dec 13 (+9.5).

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Warriors are 6-5 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- Orlando is 4-6 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- Indiana is 9-2 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- Cavaliers are 2-9-1 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Bucks covered five of last six if they played night before.
-- Minnesota is 7-4-1 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- Denver is 8-3 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- Chicago is 3-8-1 vs spread on front end of back/back.

Totals
-- Six of last seven Warrior games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Net games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Clipper games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-3 in Charlotte's last eleven games.
-- Under is 11-5 in last sixteen Milwaukee games.
-- Over is 17-4 in last twenty-one Minnesota games.
-- Six of last eight Denver games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Seattle games went over the total.

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[pm530]

Hockey – write up

NHL
Write up


Friday, February 2

Hot Teams
-- Red Wings won seven of their last ten games.
-- Columbus won four of its last five games. Calgary is 10-5 in its last fifteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Blues lost last two games, allowing eleven goals.

Series Records
-- Detroit is 3-2 against the Blues this season.
-- Home side won both Columbus-Calgary games this season.

Back-to-Back Situations
-- St Louis is 4-9 on front end of back/back.

Totals
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten St Louis games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Columbus games.

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[pm530]

College Basketball – Long Sheet

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, February 2

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PENNSYLVANIA (11 - 7) at BROWN (6 - 13) - 2/2/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENNSYLVANIA is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.
BROWN is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in February games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROWN is 2-2 against the spread versus PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
PENNSYLVANIA is 4-0 straight up against BROWN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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CORNELL (10 - 8) at DARTMOUTH (7 - 10) - 2/2/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CORNELL is 59-32 ATS (+23.8 Units) in road games since 1997.
CORNELL is 59-32 ATS (+23.8 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
CORNELL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CORNELL is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
DARTMOUTH is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) in all home games since 1997.
DARTMOUTH is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home lined games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
DARTMOUTH is 2-2 against the spread versus CORNELL over the last 3 seasons
CORNELL is 3-1 straight up against DARTMOUTH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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COLUMBIA (10 - 8) at HARVARD (9 - 9) - 2/2/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLUMBIA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games in February games since 1997.
COLUMBIA is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
HARVARD is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HARVARD is 3-1 against the spread versus COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
HARVARD is 3-1 straight up against COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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PRINCETON (9 - 7) at YALE (7 - 10) - 2/2/2007, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PRINCETON is 3-1 against the spread versus YALE over the last 3 seasons
PRINCETON is 3-1 straight up against YALE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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FAIRFIELD (8 - 15) at CANISIUS (11 - 10) - 2/2/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CANISIUS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CANISIUS is 3-2 against the spread versus FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
FAIRFIELD is 3-2 straight up against CANISIUS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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MANHATTAN (11 - 10) at NIAGARA (11 - 11) - 2/2/2007, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MANHATTAN is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games in February games since 1997.
MANHATTAN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
MANHATTAN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
MANHATTAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
MANHATTAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games this season.
MANHATTAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
MANHATTAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
NIAGARA is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MANHATTAN is 3-1 against the spread versus NIAGARA over the last 3 seasons
NIAGARA is 2-2 straight up against MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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