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NFL YTD 23-26 -11.15 units
3* 0-1 -3.75 units
2* 3-5 -4.2 units
1* 20-20 -3.2 units
NFL/College Combined 68-63 -9.75 units
4* 0-1 -4.4 units
3* 1-2 -4.65 units
2* 9-12 -6.6 units
1* 58-49 +5.9 units
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This has been a very poor football season for me as can be seen by the above records. I had a particularly shaky mark on top games, which is normally my strength. I did not have a 4* game in the NFL this year because I didn't find one I liked enough. My pick here is not an attempt at hype. This is simply my absolute strongest NFL opinion of the year.
The line listed below is the one at which I bet the game last Sunday as an AFC vs. the Bears prop. I posted the play on this site at that time. It has moved 1/2 to a full point since then and will probably move up in the coming days because the public loves favorites. I will list my reasons for the play.
4* Colts -6
While I like Indy, this is really a strong play AGAINST the Bears. I got the six point line as I was willing to take either New England or Indianpolis against Chicago.
1) The Bears are not coming into this game the way a Super Bowl winner should. They ended the regular season poorly and didn't really play all that well in their playoff games. They almost lost to a Seattle team that should have been beaten at home the prior week. They were only two points ahead of New Orleans with 3:00 left in the third quarter. Their wins were primarily the result of a huge homefield advantage, particularly against a dome team like New Orleans.
2) The quarterback comparison is off the charts. Grossman is simply not playing well.
3) Chicago's defense was shaky the last few regular season games and wasn't exactly smothering in the playoff games. They didn't assert against New Orleans until the Saints wore down late. Indy will be able to score against this team.
4) Chicago's strength is its running game against Indy's poor run defense. But if the Colts get a solid early lead, Chicago will be forced to try to throw. This could be a disaster. Prediction: Bob Sanders picks at least one Grossman pass.
5) The AFC was by far the better conference this year.
6) Indy had to win on the road against a great Baltimore defense. Dome teams on the road in the playoffs are only 16-45 SU in the last 40 years. Indy is one of the 16 wins.
7) The victory over New England showed great character and resilience.
8) Peyton Manning is likely to have a great game. Fans love to claim certain players "can't win the big one." They even said it about Elway untih he won two Super Bowls in a row. Eventually, the great ones manage to find a way to get that "big one." While Manning's numbers haven't been great in the post season, he visually looks great. His passes are crisp and accurate.
9) The Super Bowl has been won the last several years by the team that got hot at the end of the year. Pittsburgh last year was a great example. Indy didn't have a great season but is playing great right now.
10) While several recent Super Bowls have been close, over the years many have been blowouts. The line for this game doesn't scare me in the least. Indy is a much better team right now than Chicago and should win by double digits.
In conclusion, while many say you should never make the Super Bowl "your biggest play of the year" because it is an isolated game, I believe arbitrary rules like that are silly. The line has been way off in many big games. There is no evidence linemakers are better at big games than meaningless ones. I am hammering this play because it is my very strong opinion that Indy will easily handle the Bears. On the other hand, I've had a bad football season.
One prop play:
I am playing this for about 1/2 unit, but will not count it in my record as I'll call it an "opinion only:"
Colts -17 1/2 +500
This is my favorite alternate point spread line because you can get more value than the true point buy would indicate. Normally, it costs 20 cents of juice for every point. The "true" line for this should be +400. As I believe there is a real chance of a blowout, odds of five-to-one present nice value.
3* 0-1 -3.75 units
2* 3-5 -4.2 units
1* 20-20 -3.2 units
NFL/College Combined 68-63 -9.75 units
4* 0-1 -4.4 units
3* 1-2 -4.65 units
2* 9-12 -6.6 units
1* 58-49 +5.9 units
******************************
This has been a very poor football season for me as can be seen by the above records. I had a particularly shaky mark on top games, which is normally my strength. I did not have a 4* game in the NFL this year because I didn't find one I liked enough. My pick here is not an attempt at hype. This is simply my absolute strongest NFL opinion of the year.
The line listed below is the one at which I bet the game last Sunday as an AFC vs. the Bears prop. I posted the play on this site at that time. It has moved 1/2 to a full point since then and will probably move up in the coming days because the public loves favorites. I will list my reasons for the play.
4* Colts -6
While I like Indy, this is really a strong play AGAINST the Bears. I got the six point line as I was willing to take either New England or Indianpolis against Chicago.
1) The Bears are not coming into this game the way a Super Bowl winner should. They ended the regular season poorly and didn't really play all that well in their playoff games. They almost lost to a Seattle team that should have been beaten at home the prior week. They were only two points ahead of New Orleans with 3:00 left in the third quarter. Their wins were primarily the result of a huge homefield advantage, particularly against a dome team like New Orleans.
2) The quarterback comparison is off the charts. Grossman is simply not playing well.
3) Chicago's defense was shaky the last few regular season games and wasn't exactly smothering in the playoff games. They didn't assert against New Orleans until the Saints wore down late. Indy will be able to score against this team.
4) Chicago's strength is its running game against Indy's poor run defense. But if the Colts get a solid early lead, Chicago will be forced to try to throw. This could be a disaster. Prediction: Bob Sanders picks at least one Grossman pass.
5) The AFC was by far the better conference this year.
6) Indy had to win on the road against a great Baltimore defense. Dome teams on the road in the playoffs are only 16-45 SU in the last 40 years. Indy is one of the 16 wins.
7) The victory over New England showed great character and resilience.
8) Peyton Manning is likely to have a great game. Fans love to claim certain players "can't win the big one." They even said it about Elway untih he won two Super Bowls in a row. Eventually, the great ones manage to find a way to get that "big one." While Manning's numbers haven't been great in the post season, he visually looks great. His passes are crisp and accurate.
9) The Super Bowl has been won the last several years by the team that got hot at the end of the year. Pittsburgh last year was a great example. Indy didn't have a great season but is playing great right now.
10) While several recent Super Bowls have been close, over the years many have been blowouts. The line for this game doesn't scare me in the least. Indy is a much better team right now than Chicago and should win by double digits.
In conclusion, while many say you should never make the Super Bowl "your biggest play of the year" because it is an isolated game, I believe arbitrary rules like that are silly. The line has been way off in many big games. There is no evidence linemakers are better at big games than meaningless ones. I am hammering this play because it is my very strong opinion that Indy will easily handle the Bears. On the other hand, I've had a bad football season.
One prop play:
I am playing this for about 1/2 unit, but will not count it in my record as I'll call it an "opinion only:"
Colts -17 1/2 +500
This is my favorite alternate point spread line because you can get more value than the true point buy would indicate. Normally, it costs 20 cents of juice for every point. The "true" line for this should be +400. As I believe there is a real chance of a blowout, odds of five-to-one present nice value.
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