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Dayton/Xavier line looks way too high. I don't think taking the points is such a good idea here. Dayton is 0-6 on the road this year, and, while the records don't yet show it, Xavier is the class of the conference, and they will go on a run in the very near future.
Who the hell is Penn State to be a road favorite in conference?
The Oklahoma/A&M line seems a bit odd. Why, after being 11/10.5 points favorites against highly ranked Oklahoma State (and winning and covering easily), would A&M only be 10 point favorites against Oklahoma? I think OU is the play here, but just a lean.
St. John's is getting too many points. Pitt isn't a team that has shown the ability to blow out quality teams, and to my surprise, St. John's has quality. They don't wow you with anything, but they battle and will hang around in this one, probably ultimately losing by 10 or so.
PLAYS
Arizona +2.5
I'm truly amazed that we are getting points here. North Carolina is nothing. I don't even have them in my top 10. The ACC is nowhere near the conference the Pac-10 is, and I think Zona proves it here. Last year, in a similar situation, a mediocre USC team killed UNC. I'm expecting Zona to win this one comfortably as well, especially with the boost they will get from the return of Marcus Williams.
Alabama -3.5
Maybe I'm a sucker for this one, as I'm betting it knowing the public will be on it as well. Still, I'm hearing so much talk about how bad Alabama is, how they aren't going to make the tournament. They get a team here that absolutely kicked their ass about a month ago, and surely Steele, who is finally healthy, will lead his team to a convincing win here.
Detroit +4
This game sets up a lot like the Washington/Oregon game I was so high on. The line is so much different than it would have been in preseason - where Detroit would have been the favorite. Now, Butler comes into this one in a precarious situation, off the emotional overtime win in which they were badly outplayed. Detroit is a team with all the ingredients to beat Butler, and is so much better than their record that words cannot describe it.
Missouri -2.5
Nice coaching job by Knight, probably his best in 10 years. Still, I think the Red Raiders are walking into a hornet's nest here. Missouri needs to continue winning this type home game against equal teams, while Texas Tech will be a little overconfident after home wins over the #5 and #6 teams in the country in the last week. It's a nice sandwich situation, as they also play Texas at home next.
Drexel -1.5
VCU will be a public dog tomorrow, and I think they get beat. Despite being 9-0 in conference, they really haven't been any more impressive than Drexel, in my opinion. The problem is that Drexel's leading scorer/rebounder is suspended. The fact that the oddsmakers still make Drexel the favorite sort of tells me they are very likely to win. Also, this is a team that has only lost one home game all season, and I really don't think they'll make it two.
Auburn +11
Rodney Dangerfield game of the year, as I'm not sure exactly what Auburn has to do to get respect. Florida is a 5.5 point road favorite at MSU, don't cover, and now they are this big a favorite against a team with loads of confidence who has been a beast at home. Auburn has a significant home court advantage for the first time in about five years, and Lebo has done the best coaching job in the SEC this season. Somehow, FLORIDA HAS ONLY PLAYED THREE ROAD GAMES THIS SEASON. The lone cover was against the worst team in the SEC. This is also the first time they have played B2B road games.
BYU -1.5
Enough has been said about this one elsewhere. BYU is playing by far the best they have played all season - I was shocked they went into Albequerque and won by 21 - and they have a 26-game home court winning streak. AFA is very, very good, but they have had some road struggles, and losing this game won't hurt their season per se. A win certainly boosts BYU's resume.
Anyway, best of luck tomorrow everyone.
Who the hell is Penn State to be a road favorite in conference?
The Oklahoma/A&M line seems a bit odd. Why, after being 11/10.5 points favorites against highly ranked Oklahoma State (and winning and covering easily), would A&M only be 10 point favorites against Oklahoma? I think OU is the play here, but just a lean.
St. John's is getting too many points. Pitt isn't a team that has shown the ability to blow out quality teams, and to my surprise, St. John's has quality. They don't wow you with anything, but they battle and will hang around in this one, probably ultimately losing by 10 or so.
PLAYS
Arizona +2.5
I'm truly amazed that we are getting points here. North Carolina is nothing. I don't even have them in my top 10. The ACC is nowhere near the conference the Pac-10 is, and I think Zona proves it here. Last year, in a similar situation, a mediocre USC team killed UNC. I'm expecting Zona to win this one comfortably as well, especially with the boost they will get from the return of Marcus Williams.
Alabama -3.5
Maybe I'm a sucker for this one, as I'm betting it knowing the public will be on it as well. Still, I'm hearing so much talk about how bad Alabama is, how they aren't going to make the tournament. They get a team here that absolutely kicked their ass about a month ago, and surely Steele, who is finally healthy, will lead his team to a convincing win here.
Detroit +4
This game sets up a lot like the Washington/Oregon game I was so high on. The line is so much different than it would have been in preseason - where Detroit would have been the favorite. Now, Butler comes into this one in a precarious situation, off the emotional overtime win in which they were badly outplayed. Detroit is a team with all the ingredients to beat Butler, and is so much better than their record that words cannot describe it.
Missouri -2.5
Nice coaching job by Knight, probably his best in 10 years. Still, I think the Red Raiders are walking into a hornet's nest here. Missouri needs to continue winning this type home game against equal teams, while Texas Tech will be a little overconfident after home wins over the #5 and #6 teams in the country in the last week. It's a nice sandwich situation, as they also play Texas at home next.
Drexel -1.5
VCU will be a public dog tomorrow, and I think they get beat. Despite being 9-0 in conference, they really haven't been any more impressive than Drexel, in my opinion. The problem is that Drexel's leading scorer/rebounder is suspended. The fact that the oddsmakers still make Drexel the favorite sort of tells me they are very likely to win. Also, this is a team that has only lost one home game all season, and I really don't think they'll make it two.
Auburn +11
Rodney Dangerfield game of the year, as I'm not sure exactly what Auburn has to do to get respect. Florida is a 5.5 point road favorite at MSU, don't cover, and now they are this big a favorite against a team with loads of confidence who has been a beast at home. Auburn has a significant home court advantage for the first time in about five years, and Lebo has done the best coaching job in the SEC this season. Somehow, FLORIDA HAS ONLY PLAYED THREE ROAD GAMES THIS SEASON. The lone cover was against the worst team in the SEC. This is also the first time they have played B2B road games.
BYU -1.5
Enough has been said about this one elsewhere. BYU is playing by far the best they have played all season - I was shocked they went into Albequerque and won by 21 - and they have a 26-game home court winning streak. AFA is very, very good, but they have had some road struggles, and losing this game won't hurt their season per se. A win certainly boosts BYU's resume.
Anyway, best of luck tomorrow everyone.
Winna, Winna, Chicken Dinna!!!
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