Super Bowl Info To Win

[Spearit]

Cleaned my last post up!
This point system has picked the straight up winner of the Super Bowl 36 times out of the 40 games. After looking at the matchup here is the system.

Keep in mind, I am only using the stats from the reg season, but in most cases the difference is so large that the post season games will not have any effect.

10pts to any team that has won the SB in the last 3 years.
Neither qualify (Chi 0, Indy 0)

8pts to team if opposing team is appearing in 1st SB in franchise history.
Neither qualify (Chi 0, Indy 0)

8pts to team that allowed fewer rushes on the year.
Chicago 402, Indy 519 (Chi 8, Indy 0)

7pts to team with best overall record.
Chicago 15-3, Indy 15-4 (Chi 15, Indy 0)

7pts to team with most offensive rushes
Chicago 503, Indy 439 (Chi 22, Indy 0)

5pts to team with lower defensive rush yds per carry
Chicago 4.0, Indy 5.3 (Chi 27, Indy 0)

4pts to team with best net kick/punt returns for TD
Chicago +5, Indy -2 (Chi 31, Indy 0)

4pts to team with best ATS record
Chicago 11-7, Indy 11-8 (Chi 35, Indy 0)

4pts to team with best net penalty yards
????Dont have answer on this one yet (Chi 35, Indy 0)

3.5pts to team with best yds per passing attempt
Chicago 6.4, Indy 7.5 (Chi 35, Indy 3.5)

3.5pts to team that has allowed the fewest points
Chicago 255, Indy 360 (Chi 38.5, Indy 3.5)

3.5pts to team that has allowed the fewest rushing tds
Chicago 7, Indy 20 (Chi 42, Indy 3.5)

3pts to team with the most sacks
Chicago 40, Indy 25 (Chi 45, Indy 3.5)

2.5pts to team with fewest offensive pass attempts
Chicago 514, Indy 557 (chi 47.5, Indy 3.5)

2pts to team with best net total punts
??????dont have answer for this one yet (Chi 47.5, Indy 3.5)

1.5pts to team with best offensive rush yds per carry
Chicago 3.8, Indy 4.0 (Chi 47.5, Indy 5)

1pt to team with best completion pct
Chicago 54.9%, Indy 65.0% (Chi 47.5, Indy 6)

Final tally
Chicago 47.5
Indy 6.0
Undecided 6.0

[GOLDENGREEK]

The first quarter has 22 total points scored the last seven super bowls. O/U is 10 right now. *****there has been only 22 points scored in the first quarter of the last 7 superbowl combined--TAKE THE UNDER FOR THE 1ST QUARTER


SCORING
Seattle --- 3 0 7 0 -- 10
Pittsburgh -- 0 7 7 7 -- 21

New England -- 0 7 7 10 -- 24
Philadelphia --- 0 7 7 7 -- 21

Carolina -- 0 10 0 19 -- 29
New England -- 0 14 0 18 -- 32

Oakland -- 3 0 6 12 -- 21
Tampa Bay -- 3 17 14 14 -- 48

Baltimore -- 7 3 14 10 -- 34
N.Y. Giants -- 0 0 7 0 -- 7

St. Louis -- 3 6 7 7 -- 23
Tennessee -- 0 0 6 10 -- 16

[GOLDENGREEK]

SYSTEM #1-

The record for this system is 34-3-2 ATS

10pts- To team if they won a superbowl in L3 yrs
8pts- To team whose opp is playing in 1st Super Bowl
8pts- To team that allowed fewest defensive rushes
7pts- To team with better SU record
7pts- To team with most offensive rushes
5pts- To team with lower defensive rush yds/carry
4pts- To team with better net kick/punt return TD's
4pts- To team with better ATS record
4pts- To team with superior net penalty yds
4pts- To team with highest net turn-overs
3.5pts- To team with highest yds p/pass attempt
3.5pts- To team who has given up least amt of pts
3.5pts- To team who allowed fewest rushing TD's
3pts- To team who has recorded more sacks
2.5pts- To tam with fewest fewest passing attempts
2pts- To team with the best net punts on the year
1.5pts- To team with best off average p/rush attempt
1pts- To team with best comp %

**After totally the results, you must add in the spread to each team respectivelly.


SYSTEM 2-

19-4 ATS - Take the team that won ATS in championship gm, if both won or neither won, take the team w/better SU record in regular season, if both had same record, take the dog.

THIS SYSTEM PICKED PITT LAST YEAR AND WAS CORRECT ( WITH A TON OF HELP FROM THE OFFICIALS)



THE RESULTS

The record for this system is 34-3-2 ATS

10pts- To team if they won a superbowl in L3 yrs --- NIETHER


8pts- To team whose opp is playing in 1st Super Bowl ---DO THE BALTIMORE COLTS COUNT SUPER BOWL 3?


8pts- To team that allowed fewest defensive rushes------BEARS

G ATT ATT/G YARDS AVG YARDS/G TD FD'S 20+
BEARS 16 402 25.1 1590 4.0 99.4 7 77 13
COLTS 16 5 19 32.4 2768 5.3 173.0 20 150 18



7pts- To team with better SU record ------BEARS ---- BEARS 13-3 --- INDY 12-4


7pts- To team with most offensive rushes ------ BEARS ---- BEARS 503 --- INDY - 439



5pts- To team with lower defensive rush yds/carry -----BEARS ---- BEARS - 4.0 ---INDY - 5.3


4pts- To team with better net kick/punt return TD's ---- BEARS ----BEARS KO/ PUNT RETURN TD'S SCORED 5 --ALLOWED 0. INDY KO/PUNT RETURN TD'S 1---ALLOWED --3 TOTAL --BEARS +7


4pts- To team with better ATS record ---- BEARS ----BEARS - 10-5-1 ---
INDY 8-8


4pts- To team with superior net penalty yds----BEARS --- BEARS +125 -- INDY+ 51


4pts- To team with highest net turn-overs ---BEARS ----- BEARS +8 --- INDY + 7


3.5pts- To team with highest yds p/pass attempt --- INDY ----- INDY 6.0 --- BEARS 5.0


3.5pts- To team who has given up least amt of pts -- BEARS ---- BEARS -254 --- INDY -360


3.5pts- To team who allowed fewest rushing TD's --- BEARS --- -BEARS -7 --- INDY - 20


3pts- To team who has recorded more sacks -- EVEN -- 25 EACH


2.5pts- To team with fewest fewest passing attempts --- BEARS ---- BEARS -514 --- INDY-557


2pts- To team with the best net punts on the year ----BEARS ---- BEARS - 37.6 --- INDY 34.5


1.5pts- To team with best off average p/rush attempt --- BEARS ---- BEARS - 63.5 --- INDY - 63.2


1pts- To team with best comp % ---- INDY -----INDY - 65 --- BEARS 54.9



Totals:

Bears -- 56 Points + 7 POINTS ( SPREAD) = 63 POINTS

Indy -- 4 1/2 Points -or - 12 1/2 If The Baltimore Colts Do Not Count As A SB Appearence - 7 POINTS = -3 1/2 OR 5 1/2 POINTS

[GOLDENGREEK]

ANOTHER TREND:

No NFL team has ever won a Superbowl with a scoring defense worse that #8 in the NFL. Well Chicago is #3 and Indy is #20 in the NFL for scoring defense

[GOLDENGREEK]

no dome based super bowl team has covered and won a super bowl

[GOLDENGREEK]

The dog has coverd 7 of the last 10 SB's and 4 of the last 5.

[GOLDENGREEK]

over the last 11 SB's teams giving 7pts or more have went 1-6-1 ats...

[Spearit]

Nice info GG - You can't help but feel the edge goes to Chicago at least for the cover! But as we know from trends - they were meant to be broken! also remember that the Colts have not had their defense in place till the playoffs- 3 key players that use to spell Big D and low scoring by the opposition! We saw last year what the return of Big Ben did for the Steelers- will this replay again- players out coming back to make a splash!

[jt4545]

Guys' I've Said This All Year This Is The Colts Year To Win It All !!!!!!

Colts 49

Bears 21

Total 60

Good Luck

[goldencontender]

those dome teams are 0-10su on the real stuff all time in sbowl, and hers something else to chew on- TEAMS IN TOP 5 IN TO RANKING ARE 18-1 VS OPPONRNT NOT IN TOP 5 CHIC #4 INDY TIED FOR SIXTH- BOL GC-

[GOLDENGREEK]

bumpski

[GOLDENGREEK]

For what it's worth...

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since this is a road game for both teams...

Indianapolis on the road:

Win by 5 at NYG (26-21). 4 fgs by vinatieri
Win by 3 at NYJ (31-28). tie game at the half. wild finish.
Win by 3 at DEN (34-31). losing at the half. 4 fgs by vinatieri including GW
Win by 7 at NE (27-20). led throughout.
LOSE by 7 at DAL (21-14). peyton gives dallas a pick 6 in this game.
LOSE by 3 at TEN (20-17). defense makes vince look quite studly.
LOSE by 27 at JAX (44-17). defense allows 4 rush TDs and KO ret TD.
LOSE by 3 at HOU (27-24). losing at half. 4Q comeback to lose on GW fg.
Win by 9 at BAL (15-6). 5 fgs by vinatieri.

Chicago on the road:

Win by 26 at GB (26-0). 4 fgs by gould. PR TD by hester. 2 def INTs.
Win by 3 at MIN (19-16). 4 fgs by gould. losing at half. 2 picks for rex.
Win by 1 at ARI (24-23). 20-0 @ half. PR TD & 2def TDs. 4 INTs for rex.
Win by 18 at NYG (38-20). down 3 at half. 2 INTs for eli. 2 TDs for rex.
Win by 10 at NYJ (10-0). shutout. 2 def INTs. boring game.
LOSE by 4 at NE (17-13). led in 4th Q. 3 INTs for rex. 2 INTs for brady.
Win by 15 at STL (42-27). 2 KO TDs for hester. 2 pass 2 rush TDs.
Win by 5 at DET (26-21). 4 fgs for gould. was losing in 4th Q.


AVG ROAD WIN: Indy (6) -- 5.4pts Chicago (7) -- 11.2 pts.
AVG ROAD LOSS: Indy (4) -- 10.0pts Chicago (1) -- 4.0 pts.

COMMON ROAD OPPONENTS:
New York Giants -- Indy win by 5 (26-21) Chicago win by 18 (38-20)
New York Jets -- Indy win by 3 (31-28) Chicago win by 10 (10-0)
New England Patriots -- Indy win by 7 (27-20) Chicago LOSE by 4 (17-13)


SUMMATION:

Indy -- went 6-4 on the road this year. only one road win was by more than 7 points (which the line is for the super bowl). in 3 of the 6 wins, vinatieri had 4 or more FGs.

Chicago -- went 7-1 on the road this year. posted 2 shut outs. only loss was by 4 points to the pats. lost the lead in the 4th quarter. in 3 of the 7 wins, gould had 4 FGs. in 3 of 8 road games, rex had at least 2 INTS (went 2-1). had a DEF/ST touchdown in 4 of 8 games (8 total TDS). picked off Favre, Eli, and Brady TWICE each.


After looking into these situations, i see both teams relied HEAVILY on their kickers. Chicagos defense was much more impressive overall. peyton manning was not really to blame for any of the road losses other tahn the Dallas game. Indy's defense let jacksonville run ALL OVER THEM and could not contain vince young. The question for me is how will INDY's DEFENSE matchup with CHICAGOs OFFENSE!? Bears went 7-1 on the road this year. Indy lost dallas, tennessee, jacksonville, and houston.

[Spearit]

"THEY WERE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE, AND WE LET EM OFF THE HOOK!!!"

Wow - it seems that we have enuff on Chicago to cover, but wait -why will Indy cover. Opposing views!

1st off we know that AFC is better than the NFC. Now before you go racing to the windows or your online site to throw your money on the Bears, lets reason with why this line is so high. Most people seem to think that even betting the moneyline on the Bears is a good thing.
The Bears are a team that is very lucky to be there. They have under performed much of the last part of this season. They were also extremely lucky against the woeful Cardinals, just ask Dennis Green "THEY WERE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE, AND WE LET EM OFF THE HOOK!!!" Now let me translate the "They were who they thought they were" blast. What he meant was "I know this team (Bears) are not that good, they are beatable by any team in the NFL who can show up and play a half way decent game, even by our suck ass team" So telling, oh so telling. Now lets bring in the Green Bay game where Rex Grossman admitted he didnt prepare for the game. If you believe that, then I also have a bridge at the Santa Monica Beach I would like to sell you. There were some un named players on the Bears who feel that he did prepare, he just got his ass kicked and couldn't admidt it because he was gripping for his job, so he goes and makes things worse by saying what he said. What a moron. I sure can't put my money on a guy like that in a big game like this. In short, the Bears just aren't a good Superbowl team, sorry Bear fans, but the truth is the truth.

Indianapolis Colts, sure, have not exactly had a bang up year themselves, especially on run defense. However, they have improved and Dungy has busted their asses to make it even better. They had some missed assignments and some confusion but they seem to have most of that cleared up. Offensively, well, you have the best QB in football who has been in some big games, and finally, won a big game. He's more pumped up than Secretariat was before he won the Belmont by 31 lengths. No way he loses this.

Now the big question. Why is the line so high? Well, its because sometimes you just have to throw the regular season numbers out and see the game for what it is. A good team playing, at best, an average team. A good team that will put up at least 28-31 points up, against a team that would probably be doing back flips if it can manage 21. Thats why.

Play the Indianapolis Colts -7.

[letsdoit]

Spearit

I would like to know what it side it is your playing on this game, I get from reading your post her both side are a good play?? thx

[Spearit]

letsdoit- Wayne, GG and a few others are riding a wave of good selections in the playoffs.
How I feel about the game?
Bears 30 Indy 23 or 31-24. Just feel a 7 point win for the bears is in order. This means the game is an over. Still feel the first half is an Under 24. Remember- until the last half of the Patriots game- Manning and offense for the Colts had not scored a TD in 3 quarters prior!