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**Chado1** · 01-25-2007, 12:31 PM

Thanks for the info Spear!!!

**Bill the Thrill** · 01-25-2007, 12:45 PM

The Bears play on grass.
The Colts are 2-3 staight up and against the spread on turf this season.

**Spearit** · 01-25-2007, 12:50 PM

Thanx Bill

I had 4200 views on playoffs last year and this info was taken from it- this is prior to the last (2006) SuperBowl

For example, New England was probably closer to a 4 or 5-point neutral field favorite over Philadelphia in 2005, yet the magnitude of the game pushed the actual number to 7.
You’ll find this type of scenario yearly, as the average spread in the Super Bowl has been favored team, -7.7. If you recall the earlier numbers from the round by round playoff trends, -7.7 is significantly higher than those figures.

Furthermore, going back 20 years, the spreads in 16 of those games were set at least a TD or more and the average victory margin has been 15.5 PPG. One other fact to note is that the winning team is averaging just under 31.0 ppg, and the last team to win a Super Bowl with less than 20 points was Pittsburgh in SB IX when it beat Minnesota 16-6.

The totals set for Super Bowl games are also normally inflated above regular season and earlier playoff round standards as well. As indicated previously, the totals for most playoff games are set in the 42-point range.
For the 21 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the average posted total is 46.3. Not surprisingly, oddsmakers have been very sharp on this number, as the actual points scored in these games is right in line at 46.05 per game.

Those are just some of the basics regarding the history of the Super Bowl. Let’s take a more detailed look at the game, from a betting perspective. We’ll examine the famous “system” for betting the game, document a bunch of other key trends, and even discuss some of the less popular Super Bowl Sunday wagering options. You’ll also find a chart detailing each of the 39 previous Super Bowl Games, including spreads, scores, ATS results, and key game stats, all to help you get ready for Super Bowl Sunday.

“The System”
The details of the increasingly famous Super Bowl Betting System are sketchy, from when it started, to who is credited for it, etc. However, everyone seems to agree on its past success, though it has come up short in each of the past two seasons as New England was the ATS play in each but won while failing to cover the number. Perhaps this could signal an end to the success, but we’ll trust that these rare win, no-cover scenarios were just a bump in the road. Regarding the popularity of the system, the public has remained generally unaware of it, and as such, sportsbooks are continually able to level the balance sheet each year on public versus professional money. This could be also be aided by the fact that are still some “professionals” who are aware of it and still try to fade it, most often unsuccessfully. Let’s look at the system: Basically it concerns season wins ( Remember that Pitt is not really a 6th seed team when you consider the injury to Rothlisberger and therefore season wins is a mute point) and how each Super Bowl team fared in its Conference Championship game. It involves three steps:

Step one: Go against any team that did not cover the point spread in their Championship game. (Well Both did)

Step two: If both teams covered in the conference championships, take the team with most straight up wins going into the Super Bowl. (Chicago)

Step three: If number of wins equal, take the underdog.

It sounds simple, and it is, but it has been very successful. In fact, in the 39 previous Super Bowls, 25 games have “fit” the system. The ATS record was 19-5-1! For the last five Super Bowls, here’s how the system played out:

2005: Philadelphia and New England both covered their conference championship games, and the Patriots came in with a 16-15 edge in season wins. For the second straight year though, New England gave up a late score to lose ATS.
2004: Carolina and New England both covered their conference championship games, and the Patriots came in with a 16-14 edge in season wins. Carolina gets a “back door” score in the late moments of the game to end the system winning streak.
2003: Tampa Bay edged Oakland in the win column 14-13 after each team covered the Championship games. The Bucs roll to an easy win and cover.
2002: New England covered the AFC Title game in 2002, while St Louis lost the NFC Championship ATS. The Patriots upset the heavily favored Rams.
2001: Both Baltimore and New York won SU & ATS in the conference championship games, but Baltimore came in with more wins, 15 to 14. The Ravens dominate the game and win handily.

General Performance Trends
ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 27-12 SU and own an ATS mark of 19-17-3, 52.8%.
* Double-digit favorites are 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, 58.3%.
* The SU winner is 31-5-3 ATS in the 39 previous Super Bowls, but as noted earlier, two of the losses have occurred in the most current back to back seasons.
* The NFC holds a 21-18 SU and 20-16-3 ATS edge all time, and has covered the spread in the last three Super Bowls.
* The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowl games!
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-9 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

Halftime Trends
* The team that wins the game SU owns a 28-11 ATS first half mark.
* The team that wins the game ATS owns a 30-6-3 ATS mark in the first half.
* The first half favorite is 20-19 ATS in the 39 previous Super Bowls.
* Over 53% of the total points are scored in the second half of the games, including 38 PPG in the second half of the last three Super Bowls.

Over/Under Trends
* As noted earlier, there have been 46.05 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl.
* In nine domed Super Bowl games, the total points scored per game is 48.6.
* Overall,14 of 20 Super Bowl games have gone OVER the total.
* Nine of the last 13 games have gone OVER the total.
* Three of the six games with totals posted 50 or higher went UNDER the total.

6-Point Teaser Trends
* The underdog owns a 23-15-1 ATS Teaser mark in previous Super Bowls.
* The favorite is 28-11 ATS in Teaser plays.

Proposition Wager Analysis
There are hundreds of proposition wagers available to a bettor on Super Bowl Sunday, ranging from statistical matchups to winning point margin to the coin toss. The odds can be very enticing for many of these, but keep in mind that the odds are long for a reason. Still, it’s fun to try and predict these features, and they add a whole new flavor to watching the big game.

Here are some thoughts on a few of my personal favorite proposition options:
First player to score a TD: A well known favorite to proposition bettors. The last 10 players to earn this title include L.J. Smith, Branch, Alstott, Law (a defensive TD), Stokley, Holt (a rookie at the time), Griffith, Freeman, Rison, and Novacek. You won’t find many of these names among the league’s all time touchdown leaders, so make sure the reward is worth it. Often, some key contributors can have odds of 8-1 or more.

Team to score first and win/lose: In 27 of the 39 previous Super Bowls, the team that scores first has won the game. This would mandate at least 2.25-1 odds if you were to choose the opposite.

Coin toss: The odds say take “Heads”, or was it “Tails”? Either way, you have a 50-50 chance of winning. Despite the lack of control or predictability, this wager remains among the most popular.Predicted Margin of Victory:

Well, add some spice now by picking a victory margin from a range of attractive choices. The payoffs are decent, and it doesn’t seem to be that difficult of a number to predict.

Statistical Performance Trends
It is the importance of execution and the pivotal role it plays in any football game, but it is even more critical in the Super Bowl. At the risk of sounding repetitive, teams that control the line of scrimmage, pass the ball efficiently, and limit their mistakes almost always come out on top. Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.

* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 32-7 SU & 28-8-3 ATS.

* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 34-5 SU & 29-7-3 ATS.

* In the 39 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just twice SU and five times ATS. In fact, the last time it happened straight up was in SB XIV, when Pittsburgh used a Super Bowl record 14.71 yards per pass attempt to offset a 3-1 TO disadvantage in defeating the Rams 31-19.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 29-10 SU & 27-9-3 ATS.
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 34-1 SU & 29-5-1 ATS. However, New England qualified in both 2004 & 2005 and failed to cover either game.
* Teams that win all four categories are 22-0 SU & 20-1-1 ATS. Ironically, the only ATS loss occurred last season in Philadelphia’s ATS win, citing further evidence that the Eagles’ covering the spread defied all logic.
This year’s playoff games and Super Bowl in Detroit figure to be as captivating as ever, with many storylines to follow, yes - such as The Bus ends career with Super Bowl Victory or Holmgren is second coach to take two teams to the super bowl and he wins. Alexander proves he is the MVP. Pitt ground game chews up clock and takes the air from beneath the wings of the Seahawks-

**Bill the Thrill** · 01-25-2007, 12:53 PM

Man Spearit,
Can you come up with some shit or what?
I wish I could type that fast.

**3rdmckid** · 01-25-2007, 12:54 PM

I usually play all 3 moves in a 13 pt teazer and I think i usually win?

**Kaptain** · 01-25-2007, 02:37 PM

3rdmckid

Originally posted by 3rdmckid

I usually play all 3 moves in a 13 pt teazer and I think i usually win?

you think????????

you mean you don't know?????????????

who placed the bets for ya??????????????

what do you mean by all 3 moves in a 13 pt teaser???????????

side/total/what the 3rd attribute??????????????

give the Old Kapt some help here.....kapt

**Spearit** · 01-25-2007, 07:00 PM

Could be first half-side and total- Thats my guess!

**Spearit** · 01-26-2007, 02:14 PM

The betting public is correct when moving the total in INDIANAPOLIS games 41.7% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (20-28) Situation at present is that the public is on the Under. Chicago is 10-3 on grass. The Over 48.5 just might be the bet. That .5 can come back to haunt ya- so wait on it coming down.

**Spearit** · 01-29-2007, 08:04 AM

On the prop of coin toss- this is how it has panned out over the past Super Bowls. Some believe the weight of the coin favors tails- and so teams generally call tails.

01) Heads, NFL**
02) Tails, AFL
03) Heads, AFL***
04) Tails, NFL*
05) Tails, NFC
06) Heads, AFC
07) Heads, AFC***
08) Heads, AFC**
09) Heads, AFC***
10) Tails, NFC*
11) Heads, AFC***
12) Heads, NFC***
13) Heads, NFC
14) Heads, NFC*
15) Tails, NFC
16) Tails, NFC***
17) Tails, AFC*
18) Heads, AFC**
19) Tails, NFC**
20) Tails, NFC***
21) Tails, AFC*
22) Heads, NFC***
23) Tails, NFC**
24) Heads, AFC
25) Heads, AFC*
26) Heads, NFC***
27) Heads, AFC*
28) Tails, NFC***
29) Heads, NFC**
30) Tails, NFC***
31) Heads, AFC*
32) Tails, NFC*
33) Tails, NFC
34) Tails, NFC***
35) Tails, NFC
36) Heads, NFC*
37) Tails, NFC**
38) Tails, NFC*
39) Tails, NFC

**worm** · 01-29-2007, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by Spearit

This is to press any outside info into one thread that may help in deciding the winner! I think I did this last year as well.

Add on folks as winning the bet is everything- screw if you like Manning and hate Grossman- just look for value!
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The 7 previous times a team has been favored by an even touchdown for the Super Bowl, the favorite has covered exactly once.
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Regarding mediocre quarterbacks such as Grossman, ---Trent Dilfer and Jeff Hostetler have Super Bowl rings straight up and against the line.

and so does Rothlisberger with a QB rating of about 40 in that game......the best pass thrown was by Randle El

**Spearit** · 01-31-2007, 05:38 PM

The Rushing Game

Let’s take a look at some history first. Winning the rushing game usually means winning the Super Bowl but what exactly is the likeliness of that? Of the first 40 Super Bowls, the winning team had more rushing yards in 33 of those games which is pretty significant. More importantly for us and for the purpose of this article, the team with the greater rushing yard total is 29-11 ATS (72.5 percent). So not only predicting the rushing winner gives us the outright winner but it likely gives us a spread cover as well.

The Super Bowl winner has averaged 151.7 ypg through the first 40 big games while the losing team has averaged just 87.5 ypg. It can be argued that the winning team is likely sitting on the lead and piling on meaningless rushing yards while the trailing team is forced to abandon the run. Sure that is the case some of the time however looking at ypc averages strengthens the rushing theory. The winners have averaged over four ypc while the losing team has averaged 3.6 ypc.

The Super Bowl winner has been held to fewer than 100 yards only five times in the history of the big game, most recently Super Bowl XXXIV winner St. Louis. Seven times has seen the winner gain over 200 yards and its no surprise that the average margin of victory in those games was 20.3 ppg however this has not taken place since Super Bowl XXII in 1988. The most yards ever gained by a Super Bowl loser were 166 yards by Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV against the Giants.

Now let’s see if we can put history on our side and determine who will win the rushing game between the Colts and Bears. Coming into this matchup, Chicago is dubbed the better rushing team but that isn’t because of the offensive side of things. The Bears averaged 119.9 ypg during the regular season which was 15th in the league. Indianapolis was not far behind, averaging 110.1 ypg, which was tied for 18th. The Colts actually averaged more ypc than Chicago, 4.0 ypc to 3.8 ypc.

During the postseason, both teams have stepped things up. Chicago leads all playoff teams in rushing, averaging 158 ypg on 4.0 ypc in its two games while the Colts are averaging 137.7 ypg on 3.9 ypc in their three games. The Bears torched the weak New Orleans rushing defense for 196 yards in the NFC Championship after putting up 120 yards against the Seahawks in their divisional round game. The Colts have put up 188, 100 and 125 yards in their three postseason games.

Defensively, both teams have been successful in the postseason which is incredibly surprising for the Colts. Indianapolis was dead last in the NFL in rushing defense during the regular season, allowing a league high 173 ypg on 5.3 ypc which was also the most in the league. However, they have allowed only 220 yards rushing in three postseason games for an average of 73.3 ypg on 3.6 ypc. So the question lies which set up numbers do we look at to see which Colts defense is going to show up.

They had success against the Patriots, allowing just 93 yards but after running all over Indianapolis in the first half, New England abandoned the run as it rushed the ball only five times in the entire second half. If the Patriots had been more balanced, the outcome could have been different. Many are attributing the return of safety Bob Sanders to the success of the Colts stopping the run as he played only four regular season games. However, the defense allowed an average of 165.3 ypg in those four games he played.

Chicago allowed 127 yards on the ground against Seattle but held the Saints to just 56 yards as New Orleans ran the ball only 12 times. The Bears were dominant during the regular season, allowing only 99.4 ypg on 4.0 ypc, 6th and 12th respectively. Defensive tackle Tommie Harris missed the last four regular season games with a hamstring injury and all the talk is how his absence is taking its toll on the rushing defense. In those six games missed, the defense allowed only 84.2 ypg on 3.7 ypc so it hasn’t missed a beat.

These are some very interesting numbers to try to dissect. While Chicago had the rushing advantage during the regular season, it looks as though it has shifted during the playoffs to the Colts side.

**Spearit** · 02-01-2007, 08:19 PM

Super Bowl System This point system has picked the straight up winner of the Super Bowl 36 times out of the 40 games. After looking at the matchup here is the system. Keep in mind, I am only using the stats from the reg season, but in most cases the difference is so large that the post season games will not have any effect. 10pts to any team that has won the SB in the last 3 years. Neither qualify (Chi 0, Indy 0) 8pts to team if opposing team is appearing in 1st SB in franchise history. Neither qualify (Chi 0, Indy 0) 8pts to team that allowed fewer rushes on the year. Chicago 402, Indy 519 (Chi 8, Indy 0) 7pts to team with best overall record. Chicago 15-3, Indy 15-4 (Chi 15, Indy 0) 7pts to team with most offensive rushes Chicago 503, Indy 439 (Chi 22, Indy 0) 5pts to team with lower defensive rush yds per carry Chicago 4.0, Indy 5.3 (Chi 27, Indy 0) 4pts to team with best net kick/punt returns for TD Chicago +5, Indy -2 (Chi 31, Indy 0) 4pts to team with best ATS record Chicago 11-7, Indy 11-8 (Chi 35, Indy 0) 4pts to team with best net penalty yards ????Dont have answer on this one yet (Chi 35, Indy 0) 3.5pts to team with best yds per passing attempt Chicago 6.4, Indy 7.5 (Chi 35, Indy 3.5) 3.5pts to team that has allowed the fewest points Chicago 255, Indy 360 (Chi 38.5, Indy 3.5) 3.5pts to team that has allowed the fewest rushing tds Chicago 7, Indy 20 (Chi 42, Indy 3.5) 3pts to team with the most sacks Chicago 40, Indy 25 (Chi 45, Indy 3.5) 2.5pts to team with fewest offensive pass attempts Chicago 514, Indy 557 (chi 47.5, Indy 3.5) 2pts to team with best net total punts ??????dont have answer for this one yet (Chi 47.5, Indy 3.5) 1.5pts to team with best offensive rush yds per carry Chicago 3.8, Indy 4.0 (Chi 47.5, Indy 5) 1pt to team with best completion pct Chicago 54.9%, Indy 65.0% (Chi 47.5, Indy 6)

Final tally Chicago 47.5 Indy 6.0 Undecided 6.0

**worm** · 02-01-2007, 08:25 PM

All this talk about Grossmans performance......

let's look at his playoff performances this year vs. Mannings....He played like shit against Baltimore and the 1st half of the Patriots game.....

Grossman has stepped up his game and Manning is still showing he is a choker in the big game....and this is his biggest

**worm** · 02-01-2007, 08:28 PM

And

special teams will be the difference in this game and edge goes to BEARS!

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