A Superbowl Sytem That Is 34-3-2 Ats...for What Its Worth

[GOLDENGREEK]

SYSTEM #1-

The record for this system is 34-3-2 ATS

10pts- To team if they won a superbowl in L3 yrs
8pts- To team whose opp is playing in 1st Super Bowl
8pts- To team that allowed fewest defensive rushes
7pts- To team with better SU record
7pts- To team with most offensive rushes
5pts- To team with lower defensive rush yds/carry
4pts- To team with better net kick/punt return TD's
4pts- To team with better ATS record
4pts- To team with superior net penalty yds
4pts- To team with highest net turn-overs
3.5pts- To team with highest yds p/pass attempt
3.5pts- To team who has given up least amt of pts
3.5pts- To team who allowed fewest rushing TD's
3pts- To team who has recorded more sacks
2.5pts- To tam with fewest fewest passing attempts
2pts- To team with the best net punts on the year
1.5pts- To team with best off average p/rush attempt
1pts- To team with best comp %

**After totally the results, you must add in the spread to each team respectivelly.


SYSTEM 2-

19-4 ATS - Take the team that won ATS in championship gm, if both won or neither won, take the team w/better SU record in regular season, if both had same record, take the dog.

THIS SYSTEM PICKED PITT LAST YEAR AND WAS CORRECT ( WITH A TON OF HELP FROM THE OFFICIALS)



THE RESULTS

The record for this system is 34-3-2 ATS

10pts- To team if they won a superbowl in L3 yrs --- NIETHER


8pts- To team whose opp is playing in 1st Super Bowl ---DO THE BALTIMORE COLTS COUNT SUPER BOWL 3?


8pts- To team that allowed fewest defensive rushes------BEARS

G ATT ATT/G YARDS AVG YARDS/G TD FD'S 20+
BEARS 16 402 25.1 1590 4.0 99.4 7 77 13
COLTS 16 5 19 32.4 2768 5.3 173.0 20 150 18



7pts- To team with better SU record ------BEARS ---- BEARS 13-3 --- INDY 12-4


7pts- To team with most offensive rushes ------ BEARS ---- BEARS 503 --- INDY - 439



5pts- To team with lower defensive rush yds/carry -----BEARS ---- BEARS - 4.0 ---INDY - 5.3


4pts- To team with better net kick/punt return TD's ---- BEARS ----BEARS KO/ PUNT RETURN TD'S SCORED 5 --ALLOWED 0. INDY KO/PUNT RETURN TD'S 1---ALLOWED --3 TOTAL --BEARS +7


4pts- To team with better ATS record ---- BEARS ----BEARS - 10-5-1 ---
INDY 8-8


4pts- To team with superior net penalty yds----BEARS --- BEARS +125 -- INDY+ 51


4pts- To team with highest net turn-overs ---BEARS ----- BEARS +8 --- INDY + 7


3.5pts- To team with highest yds p/pass attempt --- INDY ----- INDY 6.0 --- BEARS 5.0


3.5pts- To team who has given up least amt of pts -- BEARS ---- BEARS -254 --- INDY -360


3.5pts- To team who allowed fewest rushing TD's --- BEARS --- -BEARS -7 --- INDY - 20


3pts- To team who has recorded more sacks -- EVEN -- 25 EACH


2.5pts- To team with fewest fewest passing attempts --- BEARS ---- BEARS -514 --- INDY-557


2pts- To team with the best net punts on the year ----BEARS ---- BEARS - 37.6 --- INDY 34.5


1.5pts- To team with best off average p/rush attempt --- BEARS ---- BEARS - 63.5 --- INDY - 63.2


1pts- To team with best comp % ---- INDY -----INDY - 65 --- BEARS 54.9



Totals:

Bears -- 56 Points + 7 POINTS ( SPREAD) = 63 POINTS

Indy -- 4 1/2 Points -or - 12 1/2 If The Baltimore Colts Do Not Count As A SB Appearence - 7 POINTS = -3 1/2 OR 5 1/2 POINTS




.

[GOLDENGREEK]

System 2 Goes To The Bears Because Of The Better Record

[GOLDENGREEK]

ANOTHER TREND:

No NFL team has ever won a Superbowl with a scoring defense worse that #8 in the NFL. Well Chicago is #3 and Indy is #20 in the NFL for scoring defense

[GOLDENGREEK]

FOR WHAT ITS WORTH:
The first quarter has 22 total points scored the last seven super bowls. O/U is 10 right now.

[Spearit]

Nice Info- Thanx GG!
My biggest problem- being that injuries can desimate an offense or defense- when healthy talented folks return- the stats are askew. I also keep this in mind as Indy's rush defense is a part of this equation and has gotten significantly better with all of its players back (yeah right NE was quite well defensed!-sheesh!). As in the Pitt saga last year- without Big Ben the stats were askew on offense. I believe we need to look only at stats that incompass the team (or as close to it) as we will see on the Super Bowl Field. I don't doubt that Chicago still has the advantage

[TheRook]

Good stuff GG....keep this bumped as the day goes closer.

[zittiboy]

also donot forget...no dome based super bowl team has covered and won a super bowl da' bears!

[drugstuntman]

thanks for all the work greek - good stuff

[GOLDENGREEK]

bumpski

[GOLDENGREEK]

For what it's worth...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

since this is a road game for both teams...

Indianapolis on the road:

Win by 5 at NYG (26-21). 4 fgs by vinatieri
Win by 3 at NYJ (31-28). tie game at the half. wild finish.
Win by 3 at DEN (34-31). losing at the half. 4 fgs by vinatieri including GW
Win by 7 at NE (27-20). led throughout.
LOSE by 7 at DAL (21-14). peyton gives dallas a pick 6 in this game.
LOSE by 3 at TEN (20-17). defense makes vince look quite studly.
LOSE by 27 at JAX (44-17). defense allows 4 rush TDs and KO ret TD.
LOSE by 3 at HOU (27-24). losing at half. 4Q comeback to lose on GW fg.
Win by 9 at BAL (15-6). 5 fgs by vinatieri.

Chicago on the road:

Win by 26 at GB (26-0). 4 fgs by gould. PR TD by hester. 2 def INTs.
Win by 3 at MIN (19-16). 4 fgs by gould. losing at half. 2 picks for rex.
Win by 1 at ARI (24-23). 20-0 @ half. PR TD & 2def TDs. 4 INTs for rex.
Win by 18 at NYG (38-20). down 3 at half. 2 INTs for eli. 2 TDs for rex.
Win by 10 at NYJ (10-0). shutout. 2 def INTs. boring game.
LOSE by 4 at NE (17-13). led in 4th Q. 3 INTs for rex. 2 INTs for brady.
Win by 15 at STL (42-27). 2 KO TDs for hester. 2 pass 2 rush TDs.
Win by 5 at DET (26-21). 4 fgs for gould. was losing in 4th Q.


AVG ROAD WIN: Indy (6) -- 5.4pts Chicago (7) -- 11.2 pts.
AVG ROAD LOSS: Indy (4) -- 10.0pts Chicago (1) -- 4.0 pts.

COMMON ROAD OPPONENTS:
New York Giants -- Indy win by 5 (26-21) Chicago win by 18 (38-20)
New York Jets -- Indy win by 3 (31-28) Chicago win by 10 (10-0)
New England Patriots -- Indy win by 7 (27-20) Chicago LOSE by 4 (17-13)


SUMMATION:

Indy -- went 6-4 on the road this year. only one road win was by more than 7 points (which the line is for the super bowl). in 3 of the 6 wins, vinatieri had 4 or more FGs.

Chicago -- went 7-1 on the road this year. posted 2 shut outs. only loss was by 4 points to the pats. lost the lead in the 4th quarter. in 3 of the 7 wins, gould had 4 FGs. in 3 of 8 road games, rex had at least 2 INTS (went 2-1). had a DEF/ST touchdown in 4 of 8 games (8 total TDS). picked off Favre, Eli, and Brady TWICE each.


After looking into these situations, i see both teams relied HEAVILY on their kickers. Chicagos defense was much more impressive overall. peyton manning was not really to blame for any of the road losses other tahn the Dallas game. Indy's defense let jacksonville run ALL OVER THEM and could not contain vince young. The question for me is how will INDY's DEFENSE matchup with CHICAGOs OFFENSE!? Bears went 7-1 on the road this year. Indy lost dallas, tennessee, jacksonville, and houston.

[GOLDENGREEK]

Indianapolis Colts

in road games 4-5 ATS, 5-4 SU
as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 3-4 ATS
as a favorite 8-7 ATS
when total is 42.5 to 49 6-7 ATS
games on a grass field 4-4 ATS, 5-3 SU
against team w/ winning record 6-3 ATS
2nd half of season 4-2 ATS


Chicago Bears

in road games 5-3 ATS, 7-1 SU
as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 1-0 ATS
as an underdog 2-0 ATS
when total is 42.5 to 49 1-0 ATS
games on a grass field 9-4 ATS, 11-2 SU
against team w/ winning record 5-1 ATS
2nd half of season 4-1 ATS

Offenses:

Colts offense road games 22.8 PPG
all games 26.5 PPG

Bears offense road games 24.7 PPG
all games 27.4 PPG

Defenses:

Colts stats against road games 24.2 PPG
all games 21.5 PPG

Bears stats against road games 15.5 PPG
all games 16.3 PPG

Colts won by 7 or more four times this season, to Houston, Washington, Philadelphia & Cincinnati. All were at home (not once on the road) and not exactly to great teams.

Bears lost by 7 or more only twice this season, once to Miami and then to Grean Bay in their last game of the season which meant nothing to them.

Yes, Colts definitely have the better offense but defense wins big games. I know they have played an easier schedule but the Bears have the better special teams, defense, and create more turnovers. They will run the ball to take time off the clock and keep Manning off the field. Colts defense, although playing better lately, is still suspect. I have a feeling that this game will be a lot lower scoring than most people think and this will favor the underdog getting a touchdown. My only worry is that if the Bears get behind early they will have to pass, which is not their strong point, and Manning is capable of making big plays. A bonus is that although he claims to be really good at picking the Super Bowl, Lang has sucked in NFL this year, and is on the Colts. Not claiming this is a lock at all because there is no such thing and this game could very well end up either way depending how the it goes but...

[GOLDENGREEK]

Since 1981 there have been 11 teams who have allowed 50 pts or less than their SB opponent. All 11 of those teams won the Super Bowl. Yet another stat that backs the Bears in this year's Super Bowl.

[DBURGH]

Great Info Greek, But as a mathematician I would bet that I could come up with randomn stats like this and come up with a situation that favors the Colts.