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Pointspreads and totals aren’t the only numbers made with the public in mind for the Super Bowl – the moneyline is, too.
But interestingly, while the pointspread is set with the public’s preference for the Indianapolis Colts in mind, it’s actually the Chicago Bears that are being shaded on the moneyline.
Pinnaclesports.com opened the moneyline for this year’s Super Bowl with Indianapolis -230, Chicago +210. Indianapolis is a 7-point favorite against the spread, though betting as of midday Tuesday has some books down to 6 ½.
“I honestly did not expect to see (6 ½), especially this early,” says David Malinsky. “So for now the market still has a volatility to it, which means that the true moneyline has not settled in just yet.”
Moneylines for 7-point games usually fall in the -300 range, with the underdog at around +280. Logically, a 7-point favorite like Indianapolis is expected to win outright almost three times as much as Chicago. Why then, are oddsmakers readily offering the better team at a discount price?
It all comes down to balanced action. Public bettors have historically preferred to play the underdog on the moneyline rather than the favorite. Their logic is that it`s better to risk a little to win a lot instead of a lot to win a little. Oddsmakers anticipate this trend continuing when they open the line and set it accordingly.
“The problem for the bookmakers has been getting balanced action on the moneylines,” says Malinsky. “Bringing them in shorter, they get a chance to get some sharp action to the favorite, which can leave them in a position in which their risk is minimized.”
It’s no surprise that sharp action already has the moneyline creeping up towards a more suitable number. It is Indianapolis -245, Chicago +225 at the time of this writing.
“The line has begun to creep upwards based on some early favorite action on the moneyline,” says a linesman at Pinnaclesports.com.
Oddsmakers have been setting Super Bowl moneylines like this for years. The best comparison is Super Bowl XXXIX between New England and Philadelphia. That game also had a 7-point spread and the moneyline closed at New England -265, Philadelphia +245.
The biggest question now is just how much value there is in taking the Colts on the moneyline. There is certainly value in relation to the pointspread, but public perception is such a factor in the Super Bowl line that it may simply be that the moneyline is a stronger indicator of the true value in this game.
hmmmmmmm
.
But interestingly, while the pointspread is set with the public’s preference for the Indianapolis Colts in mind, it’s actually the Chicago Bears that are being shaded on the moneyline.
Pinnaclesports.com opened the moneyline for this year’s Super Bowl with Indianapolis -230, Chicago +210. Indianapolis is a 7-point favorite against the spread, though betting as of midday Tuesday has some books down to 6 ½.
“I honestly did not expect to see (6 ½), especially this early,” says David Malinsky. “So for now the market still has a volatility to it, which means that the true moneyline has not settled in just yet.”
Moneylines for 7-point games usually fall in the -300 range, with the underdog at around +280. Logically, a 7-point favorite like Indianapolis is expected to win outright almost three times as much as Chicago. Why then, are oddsmakers readily offering the better team at a discount price?
It all comes down to balanced action. Public bettors have historically preferred to play the underdog on the moneyline rather than the favorite. Their logic is that it`s better to risk a little to win a lot instead of a lot to win a little. Oddsmakers anticipate this trend continuing when they open the line and set it accordingly.
“The problem for the bookmakers has been getting balanced action on the moneylines,” says Malinsky. “Bringing them in shorter, they get a chance to get some sharp action to the favorite, which can leave them in a position in which their risk is minimized.”
It’s no surprise that sharp action already has the moneyline creeping up towards a more suitable number. It is Indianapolis -245, Chicago +225 at the time of this writing.
“The line has begun to creep upwards based on some early favorite action on the moneyline,” says a linesman at Pinnaclesports.com.
Oddsmakers have been setting Super Bowl moneylines like this for years. The best comparison is Super Bowl XXXIX between New England and Philadelphia. That game also had a 7-point spread and the moneyline closed at New England -265, Philadelphia +245.
The biggest question now is just how much value there is in taking the Colts on the moneyline. There is certainly value in relation to the pointspread, but public perception is such a factor in the Super Bowl line that it may simply be that the moneyline is a stronger indicator of the true value in this game.
hmmmmmmm
.
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