Thurs Ranked @ UnRanked

[vinnyvegas]

UPDATED: after 4-3 Wed night...but as Spear & BW have clearly pointed out...stay away or fade the 3-9.5 dogs and you improve odds/wins. Also, I know it'll be asked and I don't have the answer yet, but do you use opening lines or closing or what...

2006-7 Season:

Unranked Home Team vs Ranked Opponent (all records are ATS):

As a Favorite: 67.5% (13-6-1)

As a Dog of 0-3.5: 65% (19-10-1)

As a Dog of 4-9.5: 45% (15-18)

As a Dog of 10+: 63.8% (11-6-1)

Overall: 58.9% (58-40-3)

Unranked CONFERENCE Home Teams listed as Favorites are 12-2 ATS this year (85.7%)

Thurs games added after this update...

[vinnyvegas]

4 games for Thursday w/ 2 FAVS

Butler @ LoyChi +3

UCLA @ Cal +6

USC @ Stanford -1.5

Ore @ Wash -4


My plays more than likely will be Stanford, Wash, LoyChi & UCLA.

GLTA

[LVJimmy]

thanks for doing this VV, but I have the dogs of 4 - 9 1/2 at 15 -19...they were 14-17 going into today and I had:

Baylor +9 1/2
Cincy +8
Miss St +5 1/2

1-2

Did I miss something? Thanks again!

[sar1957]

I stayed away from the dogs of 4-9.5 (and will continue to based on the current ATS record) & ended up 2-1 (T Tech W, Ga W, & Wake L). Baylor & N'western both ended up @ +9- for me & no bet on Miss St +5- & Cincy +7. They went 2-2.......Thanks for the info & good luck tonight................

[Spearit]

Vinny- I think opening lines need to be mentioned along with present lines -if possible. Why because the timing of the post can indicate a play or not- for members. As far as records- this is where it can get dicey as what line will be used for recording purposes.
Only the opening lines gives you stability of a system- (unless it is a significant part of the system to take the closing line or if a line jumps more than a point, etc) if it changes as most do- then the player can make that choice based on his book and the presentation of the system. Last night Georgia was noticed mainly because Kentucky entered the rankings and Ga went from a pick-em to a fav. and as we know
Unranked CONFERENCE Home Teams listed as Favorites are 12-2 ATS this year (85.7%)

[Chado1]

So if I understand this correctly, Stanford -1.5 and Washington -4 would fall into the 85 % 12-2 category then for tonight?

[vinnyvegas]

Spearit, I AGREE...I'll try to list qualifiers w/ opening lines like above...then as the lines move or if they do then all can see which way they may lean. If people get line moves, I think posts w/in threads like this will be helpfull w/ the caveat that w/ locals, offshore, whatever, there is always potential for a slight variance...again thx for your input.

LVJIMMY: I used the original posted line of +10 Baylor and recorded it as such in that category...as for now, I'll record them as lines posted and people may have to run their own tally which would vary slightly to account for actual lines they received...which makes more sense w/ those taking advantage of bought lines. I think this is the only way to do it...would you agree? Thx for pointing it out, as I see where we have some border lines having a chance to be in one or another...THX

[TheRook]

VV, and Spearit,

Just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to put those plays up....obvioulsy it's a nice system that's making some money.

continued success with it!

[vinnyvegas]

So if I understand this correctly, Stanford -1.5 and Washington -4 would fall into the 85 % 12-2 category then for tonight?

Chado, YES, these 2 games are what I call DOUBLE DOWN lines...being in conference should make it a TRIPLE DOWN for me but I think I'll stay the course for now...I'm always waiting for the wheels to fall off this bus ride...or I should say the %'s realign...LOL

[Chado1]

Chado, YES, these 2 games are what I call DOUBLE DOWN lines...being in conference should make it a TRIPLE DOWN for me but I think I'll stay the course for now...I'm always waiting for the wheels to fall off this bus ride...or I should say the %'s realign...LOL

yea no kidding, got to even out sooner or later but who knows....

it may not as I know in CBB that home teams have done extremely well overall for YEARS....

[Chado1]

Chado, YES, these 2 games are what I call DOUBLE DOWN lines...being in conference should make it a TRIPLE DOWN for me but I think I'll stay the course for now...I'm always waiting for the wheels to fall off this bus ride...or I should say the %'s realign...LOL

It just goes to show why they are favoured like why would Washington be favoured by 4 when they have been playing terrible lately and Oregon recently beat UCLA and Arizona....

[Spearit]

It is always tough to take a hot team like Oregon that has beaten UCLA and Arizona in the last 5 games against Washington- who looks shoddy at this point. Think of the masses on Oregon in this game- thinking that this is a bad line and they will clean up. Washington has performed well against Oregon at home (the Huskies have been dreadful on away games). Even though 4 points seem like alot against this team- Vegas apparently feels comfortable with these odds and I say wait till the public takes these odds closer to Oregon before playing.

[zeib10]

Keep it up guys. Great info!

[Kaptain]

thnaks---gl with the plays---kapt

[LVJimmy]

Guys, Oregon's best player (Brooks) is suspended for tonight's game.