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Spears Sightings

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  • Spears Sightings

    Little time to cap these days have a 1 year old that was ouch circumsized yesterday- ouch. Criminy - little guys just don't deserve the humility!

    I saw this and decided to post- I have only been interested in finding winners- not records - for the brave souls here at B/C. I implore you to look at Vinnie Vegas thread on ranked and unranked for some solid possibilities tonight as well!

    -----------sighting-- doesn't hurt to hear him out!
    GAME: Alabama Crimson Tide (15-3) at Auburn Tigers (12-8), Tuesday, January 23 - 9:00 PM EST

    Alright, I have been waiting for this game all month, and I am absolutely in Love with it. Now before I continue, I need to make a statement. Though this is my favorite play of the month, it is still just that, “a confident wager, NOT a LOCK”, and virtually only has about a 70% probability of winning. That being said I am wagering 5% of my personal bankroll (Maximum bet on ANY GAME). Win or lose this game, I can promise you I will be (pardon my language) sweating my balls off the entirity of it.

    ANALYSIS: Alabama has proven to be the superior team this season between these two teams. With a 15-3 record and ranked in the top 10 in the nation, the Crimson Tide are off to what could be a spectacular season.
    The Tide are a perfect 10-0 this season at Home and have actually won their last 17 games in a row !! Also, looking at the overall stats between these 2 teams, Alabama has Edge in: Points per game, Field Goal %, Free Throw %, Defense, Rebounding, and Turnovers. Isn’t that just about everything??? So, can you guess who I am backing in this game?

    That’s right, Auburn Tigers. All of the information above is accurate, but it only scratches the surface of tomorrow’s match-up. The truth is, Alabama has been/is absolutely horrendous on the road, going 3-7 last season, and off to a familiar start of 1-3 this year and being outscored by their respective opponents by an average of 14 points. (Yes, that’s a lot!) The Tide are allowing their opponents 90PPG and a 52FG %. On the flipside, the Tigers are incredible at Home this year, posting a 12-2 record outscoring opponents 77-69, while shooting at 47% from the field.

    *The last 3 meetings between these two teams At Auburn were decided by an Avg. of 3 pts.

    ATS Facts:
    Overall Alabama is 5-8 ATS this season, and just 3-5 ATS Away. Conference 1-3 ATS
    Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
    Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
    Crimson Tide are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
    Crimson Tide are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Southeastern.

    Auburn is 8-7 ATS this season, and 6-3 ATS at Home. Conference 3-2 ATS
    Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
    Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
    Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
    Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Southeastern.
    Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

    *My Score Predictor put this game at Alabama 70 Auburn 72

    CONCLUSION: In my opinion, Auburn should be the slight favorite here, based on the situation. I will take Auburn +2.5 over Alabama.
    Last edited by Spearit; 01-23-2007, 10:58 AM.
    "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

  • #2
    Auburn also falls into the ranked vs unranked at home play that Vinnie Vegas has.

    My feeling is there is something here

    10* Auburn +2.5
    10* Auburn +1 ? First Half
    Last edited by Spearit; 01-23-2007, 11:15 AM.
    "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

    Comment


    • #3
      The 12th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide have been a bit inconsistent since the start of SEC play, and they figure to be tested significantly by the Auburn Tigers. Alabama entered Saturday's home game against Georgia with a 1-2 league record, and the result of that tilt was a 78-76 victory in a game that was closer than expected. (I watched this game and Georgia got conservative in the 2nd half after a hugh lead and Alabama- came back-- which many were on- and lost--time to get your money back)
      The Tide is now a perfect 10-0 at home, but it has lost three of its four true road games. The two league losses for the club have come against Vanderbilt and Arkansas, a pair of mediocre SEC teams, and both defeats came by more than 20 points.

      Auburn is four games above .500 overall this season, but the club is just 2-3 against conference opposition to date. Three of the last four outings for the Tigers have resulted in defeat, including an 87-76 setback to Mississippi State on Saturday. On a positive note, they do enter tonight's clash with a 12-2 home mark. Alabama owns an 83-50 lead in the all-time series with Auburn, including seven straight wins over the Tigers.

      Alabama is averaging 77.6 ppg this season while allowing 65.8 ppg to its opponents. In SEC play alone, however, the Tide is netting a less impressive 70.8 ppg while giving up 79.8 ppg to its foes. Alonzo Gee continues to pace Alabama in scoring with 14.9 ppg on 52.2 percent shooting from the floor, and while his offensive output is actually up a bit in league play, his shooting percentage against SEC foes is 38 percent.

      Richard Hendrix is netting 14.4 overall, and Jermareo Davidson checks in with 14.3 ppg and 8.8 rpg. Mykal Riley (13.1 ppg) and Ronald Steele (10.3 ppg) round out one of the most talented starting units in the nation. In the narrow victory over Georgia, Gee scored 21 points to lead a balanced attack. The Tide connected on 51.1 percent of its field goal attempts and earned a 21-10 advantage in points from the foul line.

      Auburn shot a lowly 36.8 percent from the floor in the loss to Mississippi State on Saturday, and a 22-9 deficit in points from the foul line certainly didn't help the cause. Leading the way in defeat was Josh Dollard, as he scored 19 points. Quan Prowell posted 12 points and 10 rebounds while Rasheem Barrett and Korvotney Barber contributed 10 points apiece. Overall this season, Barrett leads Auburn in scoring with 12.6 ppg, but his 39.6 percent shooting from the field could certainly stand some improvement. Prowell checks in with 12.2 ppg and 6.7 rpg, and Frank Tolbert is netting 12.0 ppg. In all, five players average double figures in scoring for the Tigers, as Barber (11.8 ppg) and Dollard (11.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg) round out the group.
      Last edited by Spearit; 01-23-2007, 11:15 AM.
      "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

      Comment


      • #4
        Good luck buddy ... and to the little guy ...

        Comment


        • #5
          Thanks for the write-up here Spear and great info!!!

          GO TIGERS GO!!!
          SOBER SINCE MARCH 28TH OF 2007!!!

          Comment


          • #6
            10* Milwaukee/ LA Clippers Under 194

            Milwaukee has been 2-8 O/U in its last 10 games.
            LA Clippers: 17-2 Under at home the total is between 190 and 194.5 points

            Bucks forward Brian Skinner (flu-like symptoms) is questionable for Tuesday's game, while guard Maurice Williams (sprained left shoulder) is doubtful
            Last edited by Spearit; 01-23-2007, 12:54 PM.
            "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

            Comment


            • #7
              Best of luck Spear!

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              • #8
                GL spearit!

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                • #9
                  gl to ya Spearit----kapt


                  Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    BOL Spear!
                    MLB 2007 140-108
                    Kruise Rec 31-14
                    Combined 171-122
                    NBA Playoffs:47-30

                    My luck is so bad, it could be raining pussy outside and I could walk out and get hit with a dick!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Alabama lost its last road game to Vanderbilt this past Wednesday, 90-73. The Crimson Tide are 14-3 overall and 2-2 in the SEC under Mark Gottfried. However, Alabama is just 5-8 against the spread overall and 1-3 ATS away from home. Conversely, Auburn is 8-7 ATS and has covered six of nine home games.

                      Alabama beat Auburn at home last season, 71-61, but failed to cover as an 11 ½-point favorite. The combined 132 points barely slipped ‘under’ the closing 133 ½-point total. The Crimson Tide also beat the Tigers at Auburn, 56-52, covering as a two-point underdog. The combined 108 points dipped well ‘under’ the closing 135-point total.

                      Both teams have had a tendency to play ‘over.’ Alabama has gone ‘over’ seven of 13 times, with the ‘over’ going 4-0 on the road. The ‘over’ is 9-6 in Auburn’s first 15 outings, including 6-3 at Beard-Eaves Memorial Coliseum. The Tigers have played eight ‘over’ games in their last 11 efforts.

                      The Crimson Tide average 77.6 points, which ranks 35th in the country. Alonzo Gee is the Tide’s leading scorer averaging 15 PPG. Alabama shot 57 percent in the second half during its victory against Georgia.

                      Steele, who has been plagued this season by a sore knee and sprained ankle, scored 13 points against Georgia. The Tide trailed the Bulldogs by 15 at halftime. It was their biggest comeback victory since they defeated Arkansas in overtime on March 3, 2004 after being down 22 points.
                      "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        love the auburn bet

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                        • #13
                          Then I feel even better about the pick! Especially the first half-
                          "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Auburn pouring it on- Up by 14
                            "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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                            • #15
                              nice call and thanks! What a win! lets go!

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