Tuesday: Ranked AT Unranked

[vinnyvegas]

5-2 past Saturday and I think 8-3 last M-F...so approx 13-5...2-0 on unranked FAVS on Saturday for those just playing them.

4 games tonight w/ a FAV home team in bunch...remember, take the unranked at HOME...

ILLINI -2.5

St. Johns +6

MiaFLA +6

Auburn +2.5

Would expect some line movement as day goes on and in our favor if taking these teams.

GL if you take them.

[Spearit]

Vinnie- your approach seems sound and your record has enticed me to play on these. Do we have some back data on home dogs? Doesn't Vegas apply the home advantage points to the dog. Best of luck to us that play -my friend.

[Spearit]

OK Vinnie- Found it- As a filter---this would suggest not playing Miami and St. Johns tonight.

2006-7 Season:

Unranked Home Team vs Ranked Opponent (all records are ATS):

As a Favorite: 65% (11-6-1)

As a Dog of 0-3.5: 64% (18-10-1)

As a Dog of 4-9.5: 43% (12-16)

As a Dog of 10+: 71.4% (10-4-1)

Overall: 59% (51-36-3)


As you can see, each situation has its own stregth. All favor the home team except for those lines at 4-9.5, which turn and favor the Ranked Road Team.

This is interesting as well Vinnie---
Unranked CONFERENCE Home Teams listed as Favorites are 10-2 ATS this year

[vinnyvegas]

I'm looking for back data...

What I find & think is yea Vegas applies a home edge but the public will pound FAVS/Ranked and move line in most cases in favor of dogs...plus the motivation of the kids on unranked...generally leads to some closer than normal games and in turn, DOG COVERS...

I don't have numbers to support this statement, but it has been very good over the years.

[vinnyvegas]

OK Vinnie- Found it- As a filter---this would suggest not playing Miami and St. Johns tonight.

2006-7 Season:

Unranked Home Team vs Ranked Opponent (all records are ATS):

As a Favorite: 65% (11-6-1)

As a Dog of 0-3.5: 64% (18-10-1)

As a Dog of 4-9.5: 43% (12-16)

As a Dog of 10+: 71.4% (10-4-1)

Overall: 59% (51-36-3)


As you can see, each situation has its own stregth. All favor the home team except for those lines at 4-9.5, which turn and favor the Ranked Road Team.

This is interesting as well Vinnie---
Unranked CONFERENCE Home Teams listed as Favorites are 10-2 ATS this year

That's GREAT info...helps in making the final plays...I'll take 2-0 anyday!!!

[jt4545]

gl vinney

[Spearit]

One sighting on Illini being a bit short on talent tonight- keeps me off Illini but it may hit. Liking Auburn first half and game. Good Luck!

[zittiboy]

good info

[vinnyvegas]

One sighting on Illini being a bit short on talent tonight- keeps me off Illini but it may hit. Liking Auburn first half and game. Good Luck!

Exactly the type of info or motivation that I think these kids use to take it up a notch...saw something regarding that talent issue, but will gamble on them regardless...too many times I've seen the easier choice like taking a ranked team like IND and saying well they are ranked and no way Vegas getting this right making them a DOG...take the ranked...I could lose this one tonight on Illini but look at others recently like Texas vs NOVA or LSU vs ARK and taking that unranked FAV looks good to me...

Thx again for posting the info...

[Spearit]

Miami is really not a bad pick- Ga Tech may be looking forward and take Miami lightly tonight. Course the filter throws this one out.

[KJ1000]

Va Tech plays Miami, not Ga Tech.

[Kaptain]

gl to ya tonight---kapt

[vinnyvegas]

Spearit, you bring up a good point about look aheads...it's an angle I use in capping games...and feel teams naturally know who is good and who isn't on their schedule...coaches talk about or circle games as do the players for various reasons...this look ahead works to the unranked teams favor IMO as a team doesn't come w/ 'A' game knowing a couple days later they have a real battle.

I almost think that home advantage increases and Vegas doesn't factor that into the equation when there is a clear 'LOOK AHEAD'...

Then again, with how some of these games have landed right on the NUMBER (OU/OKST), Vegas appears to be pretty dialed into all the scenarios we try to get an edge on...

[vinnyvegas]

DOUBLE DOWN WINNER on ILLINOIS...

[vinnyvegas]

St Johns Winner