NFC Title game (FREE Preview)

[wayne1218]

Guys you can use this thread to copy & paste any FREE writeups or predictions on this game. Please DO NOT post links.

NO SERVICES posted in here or they will be erased. Just post the trends, angles or anything else you find on this game.

Here are a few .......

Harmon Forecast

Saints 26-23

RB Deuce McAllister ran over Eagles' defenders for 143 yards on 21 attempts. The Saints should test the Bears' run defense that has struggled recently. Bears QB Rex Grossman passed for 282 yards, including a 68-yard touchdown to WR Bernard Berrian against the Seahawks. Grossman should have more success this week against a Saints' defense that gave up 232 net passing yards to the Eagles.


CBS Experts

These are Ats

Chicago 3
N.O. 2



SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Chicago Bears 34 New Orleans Saints 24
Chicago Bears (1 star)


ESPN AccuScore

More than 10,000 simulations for every NFL game for ESPN.com, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions and opponent's abilities. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages.

Chicago 26-23


Trends

New Orleans
Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Grass.
Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Saints are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Saints are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC.
Saints are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in January.


Chicago
Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.


OU Trends

New Orleans
Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 22-8-2 in Saints last 32 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 19-9 in Saints last 28 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


Chicago
Over is 4-0-1 in Bears last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Bears last 6 games in January.
Over is 9-1 in Bears last 10 games as a home favorite.
Over is 9-1 in Bears last 10 home games.
Over is 8-1 in Bears last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 10-2 in Bears last 12 games on Grass.
Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games overall.
Over is 13-3-1 in Bears last 17 games as a favorite.
Over is 13-3-1 in Bears last 17 vs. NFC.
Over is 9-3-1 in Bears last 13 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2-1 in Bears last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

Head to Head
Saints are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.


Add more as you get them!

[wayne1218]

Football.com

New Orleans at Chicago -2.5

Steve Lassan

If Rex Grossman plays like he did against the Seahawks, the Bears will win this game. The Saints are going to miss the dome and the home field advantage of playing on their fast turf. I think this game comes down to one thing – quarterback play and difference makers on offense. Yes, the Saints defense isn’t great, but they make key stops when they have to. I’ll take Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, Reggie Bush and Marques Colston anyday over the Bears offensive playmakers.

Straight: Saints
Spread: Saints

John McMullen

The Bears have been living on the edge all season and it will finally come crashing down here. We all know the inherent problems Rex Grossman brings to the table at QB but now the vanilla Cover-2 has been exposed on the defensive side in the past month. Get ready -- from 3-13 to the Super Bowl -- somewhere Pete Rozelle is smiling.

Straight-- Saints
Spread-- Saints

J J Pesavento

The Bears have a great defense, but they also are facing an offense with possibly the most weapons in the NFL. Deuce McAllister looked like he was on a mission against the Eagles and Reggie Bush is a threat every time he touches the ball. Add Drew Brees and those wide receivers and the Chicago defense will be under the gun all day. Rex Grossman didn't self destruct against Seattle, but once the Bears fall behind, he will and the Saints will go to the Super Bowl.

Straight- Saints
Spread-- Saints

[wayne1218]

MSNBC Sports Contributor

Jay Novacek

Preview: The Bears’ defense hasn’t been the same over the latter half of the season, thanks in large part to injuries to Tommie Harris and Nathan Vasher. That doesn’t bode well against the Saints, who have been moving the ball so well.

New Orleans can do a lot of different things. The offense spreads out receivers, but they also run the ball well. Drew Brees is mixing things up well, finding open receivers, and the offensive line is protecting and run-blocking. They make it SO hard for defenses, and they’ll make it tough on the Bears.

Teams have been able to score on Chicago. The offense isn’t keeping the ball long enough, and the defense isn’t getting enough pressure.

For the Saints to be successful, they need to keep mixing things up on offense and making first downs. They avoid mistakes, they’re well-coached, and that makes a huge difference in the playoffs.

The Saints gave up some big plays against the Eagles, but they did well on defense overall. They play smart defense, and they play aggressive offense.

They are on a roll, and I don’t think the Bears will be ready.

Players to watch: Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush will be key the Saints – the Bears need to be concerned with both players and where they are. For Chicago, Rex Grossman is the guy to watch. The times the Bears have been successful, Grossman has hit big plays downfield. When he struggles, with bad timing with his receivers or turnovers, Chicago is in trouble.

Pick: Saints, 31-17.

[LVJimmy]

Even though he's a dork, I really respect John Clayton's opinion.

Home field gives the edge to Chicago By John Clayton
ESPN.com

In breaking down the NFC title game, it's easy to make a case for the Saints' winning. Drew Brees is the more seasoned quarterback. The Saints have a powerful running game and an explosive passing attack. Sean Payton was coach of the year.

But here are the five reasons I think Chicago will win the NFC Championship Game on Sunday and advance to Super Bowl XLI:

Home sweet home: The Bears are playing at home, in the cold and in their elements. The playoffs have been so close this season that wacky things happen. The Seahawks won a home game when Tony Romo botched the game-winning field goal snap. It's been a playoffs filled with crazy plays and weird turnarounds. Because of that, the security of having the home crowd is extremely important in these close games. The Bears' crowd was a factor late in the game against the Seahawks, when Seattle was trying to drive for a game-winning field goal. The home team in the past two NFC championship games has advanced to the Super Bowl. The home team in the NFC has won five of the past seven games. Home field still rules in the NFC.

Back on the defensive: It might not be scientific, but the Bears are due for a good defensive game. Since the loss of defensive tackle Tommie Harris to a torn left hamstring, the Bears' defense has been pretty average. Instead of giving up 14 or fewer points, the Bears have given up more than 21 points in five straight games. This team was not built to allow that many points. But the solid play by defensive tackles Tank Johnson and Ian Scott has to be encouraging to Lovie Smith. Both players are on a mission. Johnson is trying to make Bears fans forget about his myriad off-the-field issues. Scott is playing for a new contract because he'll be an attractive free agent this offseason. When Harris was dominating games, the Bears were almost impossible to move the ball on. Johnson and Scott can't come close to Harris' disruptive ability, but they should be able to cause enough problems to make it tough on the Saints.

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Thomas Jones led the Bears in rushing this season with 1,210 yards.Well-coordinated plan: Offensive coordinator Ron Turner is doing the right thing with the offense. He knows Rex Grossman's confidence is fragile. He knows fans will turn on the quarterback if he makes too many mistakes. So Turner is emphasizing the run more. It's the right thing to do. He has Thomas Jones, who is a solid one-cut runner. Jones makes a decision on which hole to run through and hits it hard. Turner also has Cedric Benson, who is a pounding north-south runner. The more success the Bears have running the ball, the less they will have to rely on Grossman's arm. The run also sets up the Bears' play-action passing offense, which should give Grossman the opportunity to hit on a couple of big passing plays. Grossman has the arm and skills to play in a shootout, but if Turner can manage the game with the run, the Bears should come out on top.

Cornering the market: Bears cornerbacks are better than people think. Charles Tillman might have some bad games, but he is a talented cornerback and when he's on he plays at a Pro Bowl level. Remember some of his games against Randy Moss when Moss was with the Vikings? Tillman played Moss as well as any cornerback in the NFL. Nathan Vasher went to the Pro Bowl last year and had another good season. Both corners are also physical enough to help out on the run. Brees is a master of trying to play games with opposing cornerbacks. As long as Tillman and Vasher don't get faked out, they should hold up well in this game. It would hurt the Bears if Joe Horn plays because he's a veteran who knows all the tricks of the receiving trade. But even if he does play, Tillman and Vasher have an experience edge over rookie Marques Colston and Devery Henderson that will play to the Bears' strength.

Tipping the scales: The way officials let defensive backs play can minimize the difference in ability between quarterbacks. Drew Brees has a big edge over Grossman, but that could be minimized by the officials. Completions percentages by quarterbacks in the playoffs have dropped from 64 percent two years ago to 57.1 this season. Why? In my opinion, secondaries are being allowed to get away with more physical coverage. The NFL doesn't want playoff games riddled with penalty flags and coaches know this. They will tell their defensive backs to try to get away with as much as possible. While this obviously could hurt Grossman, too, I believe it will have a bigger impact on Brees and the Saints. The reason is the Bears' secondary has more talent and is better suited to take advantage of the way the officials call the game. If Brees is just a little bit off, it takes away what should be a big advantage for the Saints.

[Udog]

NEW ORLEANS (11 - 6) at CHICAGO (14 - 3) - 1/21/2007, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 0-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Udog]

NFC Championship Game
New Orleans at Chicago, 3:00 EST

New Orleans:
7-1 ATS in road games
8-2 ATS as an underdog

Chicago:
8-1 Over as a home favorite
7-1 Over off a home game

[Udog]

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
NFC Championship (FOX | 3 PM ET)

• New Orleans is a solid team against the run with DT Hollis Thomas back from a four-game suspension, so Chicago QB Rex Grossman will need to take some shots downfield to WR Bernard Berrian like he did against the Seahawks. Saints CB Fred Thomas got burned on Philly WR Donte Stallworth's 75-yard touchdown catch last Saturday, and Grossman connected with Berrian on a 68-yard scoring strike the next day. EDGE: BEARS

• The Saints have numerous offensive weapons, which could pose serious problems for the Chicago defense. While rookie RB Reggie Bush is the least familiar with the cold conditions, he is still the most dangerous player on the field and the one Chicago defensive coordinator Ron Rivera fears the most due to his receiving skills. EDGE: SAINTS

• Chicago's once-dominant defense has surrendered an average of 25.8 points in five games since All-Pro DT Tommie Harris was injured and lost for the season against the Vikings. BIG EDGE: SAINTS

• The betting public is certainly pounding the Saints, something Chicago head coach Lovie Smith may choose to use as motivation for his squad. The Bears will not get any respect until they beat a quality opponent like the Saints, and they will be looking to make Soldier Field an advantage. However, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton played for Chicago during the 1987 strike season and is a native of the area, so he knows all about the team's tradition and the weather there. EDGE: SAINTS

• New Orleans is 7-1 ATS last eight road games.

• New Orleans is 3-0-1 ATS last four regular-season meetings with Chicago and 8-1-1 ATS last 10 overall, including preseason.

• OVER is 9-1 in Chicago's last 10 home games.

[Udog]

Game 303-304: New Orleans at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.955; Chicago 129.634
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over

[wayne1218]

ESPN NFL Experts

N.O. 8
Chicago 0

[wayne1218]

By Tony Moss, NFL Editor

(Sports Network) - A drought will come to an end at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon, when the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints face off for the right to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLI.

Neither combatant in the conference championship game has been synonymous with title opportunities during the Super Bowl era, but one of the teams' long- suffering fan bases will finally get a chance to rejoice on Sunday evening.

The homestanding Bears are in the NFC Championship for the first time since 1988, ending the conference's third-longest hiatus from that plateau with last Sunday's 27-24 overtime win over the Seahawks. Only the Cardinals, who have not reached a championship game since 1948, and the Saints, who had never been within a game of the Super Bowl in their 39 previous years of existence, had been mired in a longer dry spell than had Chicago.

The Bears, whose postseason win last week was their first since 1994, have not appeared in a Super Bowl since the 1985 campaign, when they drilled the Patriots (46-10). Of the current teams in the NFC, only the Cardinals, Saints, Lions (no Super Bowl appearances) and Vikings (no Super Bowl appearances since 1976) have suffered through a longer Super Bowl-free stretch than has Chicago.

New Orleans, which defeated Philadelphia (27-24) last Saturday for just the second postseason win in its 40-year history, is trying to become the 27th different NFL team to reach a Super Bowl. Of the franchises that have been in continuous existence since the 1967 season, only the Saints, Cardinals, and Lions have never played on Super Sunday. Recent expansion franchises the Jaguars and Texans have also never reached the ultimate game, nor have the Browns, who came into existence in 1950 but were dormant from 1996 through 1998.

SERIES HISTORY

The Saints and Bears will be meeting for the second time in the postseason, with the first resulting in a 16-6 Chicago win in a 1990 NFC First-Round Playoff from Soldier Field. Running back Neal Anderson collected 208 total yards to lead the Bears to that victory.

The regular season series between the clubs is knotted, 11-11, with Chicago evening the series by virtue of a 20-17 victory in Baton Rouge in Week 9 of last season. New Orleans had won the previous three games in the series, including a 20-13 home triumph in 2003, a 29-23 victory in the Bears' temporary home of Champaign in 2002, and a 31-10 triumph at Soldier Field in 2000. Chicago last earned a Soldier Field win over the Saints in 1999.

Bears head coach Lovie Smith is 1-0 all-time against New Orleans. The Saints' Sean Payton will be meeting both Smith and the Bears for the first time as a head coach. Payton was raised in Naperville, IL, played college ball at Eastern Illinois University, and was a replacement player quarterback for the Bears in 1987. Payton also played for the Chicago Bruisers of the Arena Football League, and was quarterbacks coach at the University of Illinois in 1996.

SAINTS OFFENSE VS. BEARS DEFENSE

The Saints took down the Eagles last week thanks in large part to the work of their running game, and on a day when cold temperatures and snow are expected, New Orleans will need a similar contribution from Deuce McAllister (1057 rushing yards, 10 TD, 30 receptions) and Reggie Bush (565 rushing yards, 88 receptions, 8 TD) this week. Both players were up to the task in their first- ever postseason appearances last Sunday. McAllister carried 21 times for 143 yards and a touchdown in the victory, also catching four passes for 20 yards and another score out of the backfield. McAllister has now gone over 100 yards in four of his last five games. Bush was also a factor versus Philly, carrying 12 times for 52 yards and a touchdown and adding 43 yards on catches and returns. The rookie also had a potentially costly fourth-quarter fumble. The Saints were a middle-of-the-road 19th in NFL rushing offense (110.1 yards per game) during the regular season, though the team's running backs also added 1,250 yards receiving.

There is great concern in Chicago over the state of the Bears' run defense entering this game. The Bears struggled against Shaun Alexander and the Seattle ground attack last week, allowing Alexander to rush for 75 of his game-high 108 yards in the second half. A defense that finished sixth in NFL rushing defense (99.4 yards per game) during the regular season has clearly missed the presence of defensive tackle Tommie Harris (28 tackles, 5 sacks), who underwent hamstring surgery in mid-December and is out for the year. Tank Johnson (26 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and Ian Scott (22 tackles) will once again try to compensate for Harris' absence on the interior line this week. Also charged with slowing the Saints' backs will be the linebacking corps of Brian Urlacher (141 tackles, 3 INT) in the middle and Lance Briggs (130 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) and Hunter Hillenmeyer (48 tackles) on the flanks. Briggs had a game- high 11 tackles against Seattle, while the All-Pro Urlacher was quieter with six stops.

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees (4418 passing yards, 26 TD, 11 INT) will be attempting to build on his first career postseason win, which featured a typically efficient performance from the Pro Bowl signal-caller. Brees completed 20-of-32 passes totaling 243 yards against the Eagles, losing a fumble in the game but also throwing a decisive 11-yard touchdown pass to McAllister late in the third quarter. Brees utilized his tight ends effectively versus Philly, with Billy Miller (14 receptions), John Owens (4 receptions), and Mark Campbell (18 receptions) combining for six catches and 108 yards. Rookie Marques Colston (70 receptions, 8 TD) was the most prominent of the wide receivers, hauling in five passes for 55 yards in the win. If fellow wideout Joe Horn (37 receptions, 4 TD) misses his sixth consecutive game with a lingering groin problem, Devery Henderson (32 receptions, 5 TD) will again line up opposite Colston. Henderson had a single catch for 35 yards against the Eagles. Brees was sacked three times versus Philadelphia, after being dropped just 18 times during the regular season.

The Bears secondary is one of the few in the league that can properly account for all of the Saints' receiving weapons, and is always a candidate to provoke a turnover or two. The cornerback trio of Charles Tillman (80 tackles, 5 INT), Nathan Vasher (45 tackles, 3 INT), and Ricky Manning, Jr. (53 tackles, 5 INT, 2 sacks) will likely be matched up with the likes of Colston, Henderson, and Bush this week, with safeties Chris Harris (54 tackles, 2 INT) and Danieal Manning (67 tackles, 2 INT) lending support. Manning, who notched five interceptions in a nickel role during the regular season, kept up his strong play with a key pick of the Seahawks' Matt Hasselbeck in the fourth quarter last week. Tillman pitched in with nine tackles in the victory. Chicago got a solid pass-rushing effort from its front four last Sunday, as ends Alex Brown (46 tackles, 7 sacks, 2 INT), Adewale Ogunleye (43 tackles, 6.5 sacks), and tackle Tank Johnson all managed sacks of Hasselbeck. Situational pass rusher Mark Anderson (28 tackles, 12 sacks), who led Chicago in sacks during his rookie year, will be looking to make Brees the first sack victim of his postseason career on Sunday. The Bears led the league with 44 takeaways during the regular season.

BEARS OFFENSE VS. SAINTS DEFENSE

The Bears' offensive approach on Sunday is likely to include a healthy dose of running backs Thomas Jones (1210 rushing yards, 6 TD, 36 receptions) and Cedric Benson (647 rushing yards, 6 TD). Both rushers had an impact in the victory over the Seahawks, with Jones rushing 21 times for 66 yards and the first two playoff touchdowns of his career, and Benson coming off the bench with 12 carries for 45 yards. Benson, who has garnered 14 or more offensive touches in each of Chicago's last five games, also caught three passes for 24 yards out of the backfield versus Seattle. Last Nov. 6th, Jones, Benson, and fellow running back Adrian Peterson (41 rushing yards, 2 TD) totaled 177 yards on 31 combined carries in a 20-17 win over the Saints. Chicago was 15th in the league in rushing (119.9 yards per game) during the regular season, though the team was fifth in ground attempts (503).

Jones and Benson are set to attack a New Orleans run defense that had its problems during the regular season, struggles that extended to the divisional playoff win over Philadelphia. After allowing 4.9 yards per carry in the regular campaign, the second-worst figure in the league behind only that of the Colts, the Saints surrendered 116 yards and a pair of touchdowns on just 13 carries by Philly's Brian Westbrook last week. That total came despite a return to the lineup by defensive tackle Hollis Thomas (43 tackles, 3.5 sacks), who had missed the final four games of the regular season due to his suspension for violating the NFL's steroid policy. New Orleans will require a better effort from Thomas and fellow interior lineman Brian Young (46 tackles, 5.5 sacks), with linebackers Scott Fujita (96 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT), Scott Shanle (97 tackles, 4 sacks), and Mark Simoneau (61 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) attempting to make plays behind them. Thomas was credited with three stops against the Eagles, while Shanle turned in New Orleans' lone sack of the night.

The big question heading into last week's Chicago/Seattle game was whether the Bears would trot out "Good Rex" or "Bad Rex" at the quarterback position. Enigmatic quarterback Rex Grossman (3193 passing yards, 23 TD, 20 INT) was more angel than devil to the Bears' cause, completing 21-of-38 passes for 282 yards with a touchdown and a pair of turnovers. Grossman's big play was a 68- yard TD strike to deep threat Bernard Berrian in the second quarter, and he also set up the game-winning field goal with a pretty 30-yard pass to wideout Rashied Davis in overtime. Berrian (51 receptions, 6 TD) finished with five catches for 105 yards and the TD, while Davis (22 receptions, 2 TD) chipped in with four grabs for 84 yards. Also involved were No. 1 receiver Muhsin Muhammad (60 receptions, 5 TD), who caught three passes totaling 38 yards, and tight end Desmond Clark (45 receptions, 6 TD), who made his only reception count for 13 yards. Grossman was sacked three times by the Seahawks last Sunday, after being taken down 21 times in 16 regular season games.

Though Grossman will be under pressure to keep major mistakes to a minimum, he may also want to take some chances down the field against a Saints defense that allowed 26 passing TDs during the regular season, among the highest figures in the league. Last week, Philadelphia's Donte' Stallworth got behind the New Orleans secondary for a 75-yard touchdown catch, and Saints corners Fred Thomas (55 tackles, 1 INT) and Mike McKenzie (33 tackles, 2 INT) will be charged with avoiding a similar strike to Muhammad or Berrian. McKenzie was credited with four tackles against the Eagles, while safeties Jay Bellamy (16 tackles) and Josh Bullocks (71 tackles, 2 INT) combined for 10 tackles. Ends Charles Grant (64 tackles, 6 sacks) and Will Smith (49 tackles, 10.5 sacks) played well during the regular season, but neither was able to get to Philly's Jeff Garcia last Saturday. Smith did manage a team-best five solo tackles, however.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Veteran Saints kicker John Carney (23-25 FG) made all of his attempts last week, connecting on field goals of 33 and 23 yards in the first half and drilling home a trio of extra points. The 42-year-old Carney will be playing in his second career Championship game, after helping the Chargers defeat the Steelers in the 1994 AFC title game. Rookie punter Steve Weatherford (43.8 avg.) averaged 40.7 yards on three kicks in his first career postseason outing last week. Longtime kickoff return man Michael Lewis (24.7 kickoff return avg.) averaged 27.4 yards per attempt versus the Eagles, while Bush (7.7 punt return avg., 1 TD) went for seven yards a clip on three punt returns. Bush had one punt return for a score during the regular season, while Lewis' last TD came on a 96-yard kickoff return against the Falcons in December of 2004.

Bears Pro Bowl kicker Robbie Gould (32-36 FG) officially became a Chicagoland legend last week, when he connected on game-tying and game-winning field goals to lift his team to victory. Gould is 14-of-16 on kicks of 40 yards or more this year. Veteran punter Brad Maynard (44.2 avg.) averaged 40.3 yards on six boots last week. Electrifying rookie return man Devin Hester (12.8 punt return avg., 26.4 kickoff return avg.) had a tough day against Seattle, having a punt return for a TD called back due to a penalty, fumbling three times (none were lost), and averaging just 1.7 yards on punt returns and 17.7 on kickoff returns. Hester had six returns for touchdowns (three punt, two kickoff, one field goal) during a Pro Bowl regular season.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Though much of the focus heading into this game will be on the quarterbacks, on a day when the weather figures to be less than ideal in regard to the passing game, expect the team that runs the football and stops the run with greater proficiency to come away a winner. There is ground mileage to be gained against both front sevens, but there is no denying that the Bears have done a better job of stopping the run than have the Saints this season. Look for Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson to set the tone with their legs, and expect Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush to be less consistent than their Chicago counterparts. Drew Brees will likely be sharper than Rex Grossman, but expect the hometown quarterback to get more of the breaks, and to receive a better contribution from his supporting cast than will the visitor.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Bears 23, Saints 20

[wayne1218]

HBO: Inside the NFL

Chris Carter - N.O.
Chris Collinsworth - Chi.
Bob Costas - N.O.
Dan Marino - N.O.

[wayne1218]

Espn Insider


Saints 27 Bears 24

[SACPAC]

Over/Under Trends
NOS total is 4-0 to the OVER L4 when playing team with winning record...
NOS total is 5-1 to the OVER l6 vs. NFC North...
CHI total is 10-2 to the OVER L12 vs. NFC...
CHI total is 12-4 to the OVER L16 games overall...



ATS Trends
NOS is 10-7 ATS this year...
NOS is 7-1 ATS on the road this year...
NOS is 8-2 ATS L10 as underdogs...
NOS is 9-4 ATS L13 vs. NFC...
NOS is 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS the L4 meetings with Chicago...
CHI is 10-7 ATS...
CHI is 5-4 ATS L9 home games...
CHI is 1-4 ATS L5 playoff games...
CHI is 2-8 ATS L10 games in January...



Rankings
NOS is 1st in total offense in the NFL
NOS is 1st in passing offense in the NFL
NOS is 4th in total defense in the NFC
NOS is 1st in passing defense in the NFC
CHI is 9th in total offense in the NFC
CHI is 8th in passing offense in the NFC
CHI is 1st in total defense in the NFC
CHI is 5th in passing defense in the NFC

[SACPAC]

COLD? WHAT COLD?
By Jimmy Smith
Nola.com/Times Picayune
Thursday, January 18, 2007
Saints keeping their cool amid worries about Chicago's freezing temperatures

New Orleans, LA - Was blustery, windy, and cold -- temperatures in the low 40s -- in New Orleans at practice time Wednesday.

But the Saints chose to work within the climate-controlled confines of their indoor practice facility instead of outdoors in the elements, despite the fact that the early forecast for Sunday's NFC championship game at Chicago's Soldier Field calls for the possibility of snow showers with the mercury hovering near freezing or below.

If you know Saints Coach Sean Payton, you know why.

"Like I said a couple of days ago," Payton said Wednesday, "my concern more is the footing. We've played before in cold weather. In 2000 (when he was coaching with the New York Giants), I think the last 37 practices we had were inside, yet we played outside.

"We'll be ready for the elements and we'll adjust accordingly. We're kind of in a pretty good routine. And I kind of like the routine."

The times the Saints practiced outdoors this season can be counted on one hand, with a finger or two unused.

Yet for a club that Sunday in Chicago will attempt to reverse modern NFL history by becoming the first indoor team to win a conference championship outdoors -- nine previous teams have failed -- one would think the Saints would be endeavoring to gain any edge possible.

But Payton is not allowing the elements, or discussion thereof, to dominate discourse this week, or, if he had his druthers, even become part of the conversation.

"I think everybody has played in cold weather before, some more than others," quarterback Drew Brees said. "Hey, it's part of the deal. We went up to Pittsburgh (Nov. 12 for a 3:15 p.m. game) and that was pretty chilly. I've been other places where obviously you deal with wind or rain or snow, whatever it might be. There's just a big emphasis on taking care of the ball. I'm not sure what the conditions will be (on Sunday), but there's always an emphasis on that."

Creature comforts

For its part, the NFL does what it can to equalize the sideline conditions for both teams.

Each team is equipped with "hot seat" benches and heated blowers, provided at league expense. The Bears won't have any more weather-related amenities than the visiting Saints.

New Orleans will be required to provide its own cold-weather personal gear, and will pack accordingly, though the team would not provide information on what it might be hauling to Chicago.

Brees played collegiately at Purdue and grew accustomed to adverse conditions during his four years on the West Lafayette, Ind.

"There were a couple of practices we'd go through in college where the temperature was right around zero degrees," he said. "Midwest. That's the way it goes."

As a professional, Brees recalled a Dec. 19, 2004, game he played with the Chargers at Cleveland Stadium with a wind chill of minus-10 degrees.

"And it was snowing the entire game," he said. "There were about six inches of snow on the field, about a 20-mph wind blowing snow sideways."

In that game, which the Chargers won 21-0 to capture the AFC West title, Brees went 4 of 6 for 85 yards, including a 71-yard touchdown pass. The Chargers ran for 175 yards.

"You just address it," Brees said of the elements. "What are the conditions going to be like? If it's windy, I think you manage that. Just like if it's real wet or snowing. You just manage it. I don't think you should be overly worried about it. I don't think it'll stop what we plan to do within our game plan."

Twice this season, the Saints have played what could be considered cold-weather games, first at Pittsburgh where the game-time temperature was 39 degrees with 75 percent humidity and north-northwest winds at 9 mph that made for a kickoff wind chill of 33 degrees. It got colder as the game progressed.

On Christmas Eve at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., the game-time temperature was a mild 53 degrees, but the west-northwest wind was gusting well in excess of 20 mph, which made it feel 10 degrees colder, and often altered the flight pattern of many passes.

The Saints ran for 236 yards that day -- Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister each went over 100 -- and passed for 132.

"There's always elements," wide receiver Terrance Copper said. "You just head out there and play. Sometimes it might be too hot. There'll always be some kind of elements."

The kicking game

Kicker John Carney, who attended Notre Dame, about an hour away from Chicago in South Bend, Ind., said his primary concern would be finding a comfort level with field and atmospheric conditions.

"My left (plant) shoe stays the same," Carney said. "I change the length of the cleats. My right (kicking) shoe, I'll have three different ones and just experiment in pregame. The most difficult thing will be becoming as comfortable as I can with the field and conditions, knowing what shoes are going to work and having confidence I've made the right decision."

On a national conference call with the media Wednesday, Hall of Fame quarterback and Fox game analyst Troy Aikman surmised, incorrectly, that the Saints would be working outdoors.

Nevertheless, Aikman wasn't buying into the past performance sheet on teams that play home games indoors.

"Dome teams in the past, you could say they don't want to go outdoors," Aikman said. "I don't see (the Saints) as being one of those. Drew Brees played at Purdue. I don't think the elements for him will be a problem. And the way Deuce McAllister ran the ball last week, and for the most part all season long, this will be a good challenge for this Chicago defense.

"I don't see playing outdoors as a factor. Now playing on the road, at Soldier Field where Chicago clearly has a home-field advantage, those things have to be taken into consideration. But I don't think the weather in and of itself is going to hurt New Orleans any more than it's going to impact Chicago."

[wayne1218]

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