AFC Title game (FREE Preview)

[wayne1218]

Guys you can use this thread to copy & paste any FREE writeups or predictions on this game. Please DO NOT post links.

NO SERVICES posted in here or they will be erased. Just post the trends, angles or anything else you find on this game.

Here are a few .......

Harmon Forecast

Patriots 24-23

Last week against the Chargers, Patriots QB Tom Brady was erratic early on in the game, but turned it up a notch in the fourth quarter and finished the game with 280 passing yards and two touchdowns. The Patriots might have to lean on Brady's arm again this week. Indianapolis went into the playoffs with the league's worst run defense, giving up an average of 173 yards per game, but gave up just 83 yards on 20 carries to the Ravens.


CBS Experts

These are Ats

N.E. 0
Indy 5



SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Indianapolis Colts 31 New England Patriots 20
Indianapolis Colts (1 star)


ESPN AccuScore

More than 10,000 simulations for every NFL game for ESPN.com, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions and opponent's abilities. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages.

New England 26-24


Trends

New England
Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on Turf.
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Championships games.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in January.
Patriots are 39-12-2 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Patriots are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 road games.
Patriots are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog.
Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 36-16-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Patriots are 48-22-3 ATS in their last 73 games overall.
Patriots are 41-19-3 ATS in their last 63 games following a ATS win.
Patriots are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 vs. AFC.


Indianapolis
Colts are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Colts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Colts are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Colts are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Colts are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Colts are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win.
Colts are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


OU Trends

New England
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 playoff games.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. AFC.
Over is 10-3 in Patriots last 13 games as an underdog.
Over is 9-3 in Patriots last 12 games as a road underdog.
Over is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 playoff road games.
Under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 road games.
Under is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games in January.


Indianapolis
Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 games in January.
Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 playoff games.
Under is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 28-7 in Colts last 35 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 11-4 in Colts last 15 games on Turf.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 10-4 in Colts last 14 games as a home favorite.
Under is 10-4 in Colts last 14 home games.

Head to Head
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Indianapolis.
Patriots are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Underdog is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.


Add more as you get them!

[Spark]

New England:
7-0 ATS away playing on artificial turf
8-1 ATS in road games

Indianapolis:
11-3 Under at home vs. conference opponents
17-6 Under off a win as a road underdog

[Spark]

NEW ENGLAND is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 70-42 ATS (+23.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 50-26 ATS (+21.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Udog]

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
AFC Championship (CBS | 6:30 PM ET)

• Former Patriots kicker Adam Vinatieri broke the NFL postseason record with five field goals against the Ravens last Saturday, providing all of the team's scoring on a day Indy QB Peyton Manning turned in one of his worst performances. Vinatieri has 34 field goals in 19 playoff games and is much more experienced than his rookie replacement - New England's Stephen Gostkowski - who is a perfect 6-for-6 in this year's postseason, including a 50-yarder. EDGE: COLTS

• The Patriots did not fully take advantage of the NFL's worst rush defense in the regular-season meeting between the teams back on November 6th, letting Manning control the pace of the game. Instead, New England QB Tom Brady was pressed to keep up with Manning and ended up throwing a season-high four interceptions. Indy safety Bob Sanders played in that game, notching one of those picks and also registering a team-high eight tackles. Sanders has been the key for the Colts defensively in the playoffs, helping them hold opponents to just 14 points in two games. EDGE: COLTS

• Brady and head coach Bill Belichick are 12-1 SU together in the playoffs, with the lone loss taking place at Denver in last year's divisional round. BIG EDGE: PATRIOTS

• Indy is 9-0 SU at home, going 6-3 ATS.

• New England is 7-2 ATS last nine playoff games.

• Indy has covered and won the last two meetings after New England went 8-0-1 ATS in the previous nine meetings.

• New England is 5-0 SU & ATS last five games overall.

• OVER is 9-3 in New England's last 12 as a road dog.

[wayne1218]

Football.com

New England at Indianapolis -3

Steve Lassan

If Peyton Manning wants to get the monkey off his back and win the Super Bowl, he has to get through his old rival in Bill Belichick. The Patriots always seem to have something for Manning and its going to be a classic matchup between these two. I hate to bet against the Patriots in this type of situation, but I think the Colts will come through with a big victory and win the AFC Championship.

Straight: Colts
Spread: Colts

John McMullen

You have all heard the old adage. Quarterbacks get too much credit when a team wins and too much blame when a club lays an egg. Peyton Manning's play is this year's playoffs has proven that. The All-Pro, already known for his shaky play in big games, has never performed at a lower level yet the Colts will finally get over the hump and reach the promised land.

Straight-- Colts
Spread-- Colts

J J Pesavento

A week ago, I had my doubts about the Colts, especially going on the road and facing the Ravens defense. Suffice to say, they have removed any doubts. I hate going against Bill Belichick or Tom Brady come playoff time, but the Chargers basically fell apart at the end of the game last week. Peyton Manning and the Colts won't do the same thing and move onto the Super Bowl.

Straight-- Colts
Spread-- Colts

[wayne1218]

MSNBC Sports Contributor

Jay Novacek


Preview: On both sides of the ball, the Patriots played with such amazing intensity against the Chargers. Both teams played with energy, but New England played with greater focus, and that was the difference. San Diego didn’t settle down and didn’t handle the pressure, while New England did.

The Chargers were separately intense, not intense as a unit. That’s where the mistakes came from. San Diego wasn’t as mature.

Because of that, the Patriots face a tough challenge in ratcheting up that intensity again. This team can do that, but it will be difficult.

The Colts are a well-focused, veteran team, and they will handle the pressure. They are flying to the ball on defense, stopping the run and upsetting opponents’ gameplans. Teams come into games against the Colts with the idea of running the ball on them, and in the past few weeks, the Indy defense has prevented that.

For the Patriots to win, they need to establish a commanding ground game. They didn’t even try to run the ball against the Chargers, and it paid off. They CAN’T do that again. You can bet Bill Belichick will come out running the ball to try to keep the Colts off balance.

Players to watch: Watch the entire Colts defense. If they can continue to play like they have in the last two, they will be successful. They need to fly to the ball, stuff the run and play with toughness. For the Patriots, Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon must deliver, especially Maroney.

Pick: Colts, 24-21.

[Udog]

Game 305-306: New England at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.378; Indianapolis 135.192
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 44 1/2
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (+3); Under

[wayne1218]

ESPN NFL Experts

N.E. 2
Indy 6

[wayne1218]

HBO: Inside the NFL

Chris Carter - Indy
Chris Collinsworth - N.E.
Bob Costas - Indy
Dan Marino - Indy

[wayne1218]

Espn Insider


Patriots 28 Colts 27

[SACPAC]

AFC
New England at Indianapolis
NEP is 11-7 ATS... NEP is 12-5-2 ATS L19 playoff games... NEP is 8-1 ATS L9 road games... NEP is 17-7 ATS L24 dome games... NEP is 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS L8 meetings with Indianapolis... NEP is 4-0 ATS L4 as underdogs... NEP total is 4-0 to the OVER L4 as underdogs... NEP total is 15-5 to the UNDER L20 playoff games... IND is 9-8-1 ATS... IND is 5-3-1 ATS L9 home games... IND is 7-7 ATS L14 playoff games... IND is 4-8 ATS L12 vs. AFC East... IND total is 10-5 to the UNDER L15 playoff games... IND total is 2-0 to the UNDER L2 AFC Championship Games....

[SACPAC]

Over/Under Trends
NEP total is 4-0 to the OVER L4 as underdogs...
NEP total is 15-5 to the UNDER L20 playoff games...
IND total is 10-5 to the UNDER L15 playoff games...
IND total is 2-0 to the UNDER L2 AFC Championship Games....



ATS Trends
NEP is 11-7 ATS...
NEP is 12-5-2 ATS L19 playoff games...
NEP is 8-1 ATS L9 road games...
NEP is 17-7 ATS L24 dome games...
NEP is 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS L8 meetings with Indianapolis...
IND is 9-8-1 ATS...
IND is 5-3-1 ATS L9 home games...
IND is 7-7 ATS L14 playoff games...
IND is 4-8 ATS L12 vs. AFC East...



Rankings
NEP is 6th in total offense in the AFC
NEP is 5th in total defense in the AFC
NEP is 7th in passing defense in the AFC
NEP is 5th in passing offense in the AFC
IND is 1st in total offense in the AFC
IND is 1st in passing offense in the AFC
IND is 12th in total defense in the AFC
IND is 2nd in passing defense in the AFC

[wayne1218]

By Tony Moss, NFL Editor

(Sports Network) - The NFL's two most consistent teams of the current decade will be in familiar high-stakes roles at the RCA Dome on Sunday night, when the Indianapolis Colts play host to the New England Patriots for the right to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLI.

The Colts, who own a regular season record of 60-20 and have made the playoffs in each season of head coach Tony Dungy's five-year tenure, will be trying to make their regular season greatness extend to postseason success for the first time during that era. Indy has suffered a disappointing exit from the playoffs in each of the past five campaigns, including defeats at New England in 2003 and 2004 and a home shocker at the hands of the eventual Super Bowl Champion Steelers last season.

A 3-4 conclusion to the regular season had the Colts' chances of reaching their first Super Bowl since 1970 looking dim, but third-seeded Indianapolis was impressive in back-to-back playoff wins over the Chiefs (23-8) and Ravens (15-6), and again stands at the precipice of its first AFC title since leaving Baltimore following the 1983 season.

The Colts are 0-3 in AFC Championship games since 1970.

New England, meanwhile, finds itself playing for the conference crown for the fourth time in the last six seasons. The Patriots come off a surprising 24-21 win at top-seeded San Diego last Sunday, a victory that pushed New England's playoff mark during the seven-season Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era to 12-1.

The Patriots, whose three Super Bowl titles make them the front-runner for "Team of the Decade" honors, are 5-0 in Championship games during the Super Bowl era, including 3-0 under Belichick.

SERIES HISTORY

The Patriots and Colts have met twice in the postseason, with New England taking both a 24-14 decision in the 2003 AFC Championship and a 20-3 triumph in a 2004 AFC Divisional Playoff.

The Patriots hold a decisive 41-26 edge in their all-time regular season series with the Colts, but have lost each of the last two meetings with Indy, including a 27-20 home defeat in Week 9. Indianapolis also traveled to New England and earned a 40-21 win during the 2005 campaign. Prior to that matchup, the Patriots had scored four straight regular season victories over Indy, including victories at the RCA Dome in both 2001 and 2003. New England last lost in Indianapolis in 2000.

The Patriots are 31-11, including playoffs, against Indianapolis since the Colts moved from Baltimore following the 1983 season.

Belichick is 9-5 against the Colts all-time (including 7-2 with the Patriots), while Indianapolis' Tony Dungy is 4-4 versus New England (including 2-4 with the Colts). Dungy is 3-4 head-to-head against Belichick, including a victory for Dungy's Buccaneers team in the 2000 campaign.

PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE

Brady (3529 passing yards, 24 TD, 12 INT) has already established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in NFL postseason history, though his most recent outing against the Colts left something to be desired. In the Week 9 loss at Gillette Stadium, Brady matched a career-high with four interceptions, tempering most of the gains he made in a 20-for-35, 201-yard passing performance. Brady was also bitten by the turnover bug last week, throwing three interceptions but also generating game-tying and game-winning fourth- quarter drives. For the day, Brady completed 27-of-51 passes for 280 yards with a pair of touchdowns. Wideouts Jabar Gaffney (11 receptions, 1 TD) and Reche Caldwell (61 receptions, 4 TD) have been Brady's top targets during the postseason, with Eagles and Texans castoff Gaffney turning in back-to-back 100-yard games against the Jets and Chargers. Caldwell had seven catches for 80 yards and a touchdown against his former team last week. Tight ends Daniel Graham (21 receptions, 2 TD) and Ben Watson (49 receptions, 3 TD) have been a major part of the gameplan all season, and veteran wideout Troy Brown (43 receptions, 4 TD) caught five passes in last Sunday's win. The New England offensive line has allowed three sacks in two 2006 playoff games.

Job number one for Brady on Sunday will be avoiding the oncoming rush of Indianapolis ends Dwight Freeney (29 tackles, 5.5 sacks) and Robert Mathis (65 tackles, 9.5 sacks), who have played with a renewed enthusiasm in the 2006 postseason. After exhibiting inconsistent play during the regular season, Freeney and Mathis have combined for three-and-a-half sacks in two 2006 postseason contests. Mathis had five tackles, a sack, and a forced Steve McNair fumble in last Saturday's win over Baltimore. The improved work of the pass rush has made life easier for the Indy secondary, which has four interceptions in its two playoff wins. Rookie safety Antoine Bethea (90 tackles, 1 INT) has two of the picks, including one that stymied a Baltimore drive at the goal line last week. Bethea had an interception of Brady in the Colts' Week 9 victory. Cornerback Nick Harper (75 tackles, 3 INT) posted three tackles, an interception, and a forced fumble against the Ravens, but is regarded as questionable for this week with an ankle injury.

One week after struggling to establish the run against the Chargers, New England's three-headed rushing monster of Corey Dillon (812 rushing yards, 13 TD, 15 receptions), Laurence Maroney (745 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 7 TD), and Kevin Faulk (123 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 3 TD) will try to fare better against Indianapolis on Sunday. Dillon and Maroney were shut down to the tune of 23 yards on 13 combined carries, with third-down back Faulk out- performing both players by totaling 25 yards on his six totes. Faulk will be seeking a stronger effort than the one he displayed against Indianapolis in Week 9, when his mishandled attempt at a reception went for a decisive Colts interception. The trio combined for 135 yards on 30 combined rushing attempts in that loss, and Dillon found the end zone twice. New England was 12th in NFL rushing offense (123.1 yards per game) during the regular season.

After becoming infamous for an inability to stop the run during the regular season, the Colts have stopped the run extremely well in the playoffs. A team that surrendered a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry in 2006, the worst figure for an NFL team since 1961, Indy has held running backs Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis to a total of 85 ground yards in the past two games. Much of the credit for that improvement is owed to strong safety Bob Sanders (27 tackles, 1 INT), who has posted 13 tackles in two games following an injury-plagued regular season. Linebacker Cato June (142 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack), who had two picks of Brady back in Week 9, leads Indianapolis with 15 postseason tackles thus far. Linebackers Rob Morris (55 tackles) and Gary Brackett (120 tackleS) have also helped with the run, and defensive tackles Anthony McFarland (33 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Raheem Brock (47 tackles, 3 sacks) have provided a presence in the trenches.

COLTS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE

The Colts' run to the AFC Championship game has been strange in that the contribution of the team's best player, quarterback Peyton Manning (4397 passing yards, 31 TD, 9 INT), has been minimal. Manning has just one touchdown pass versus five interceptions in the 2006 postseason, did not engineer a single touchdown drive in Baltimore last Saturday, and has a subpar passer rating of 58.3 in this year's playoffs. Manning's greatest triumph of the postseason to date likely came in the fourth quarter of the win over the Ravens, when he engineered a seven-plus-minute, 13-play drive that led to a decisive Adam Vinatieri field goal. Top wideouts Marvin Harrison (95 receptions, 12 TD) and Reggie Wayne (86 receptions, 9 TD) have both made big catches in the two playoff games, but tight end Dallas Clark (30 receptions, 4 TD) has served as Manning's top target. Clark's 11 receptions and 144 yards are both Indianapolis 2006 postseason bests. After being sacked a league-low 15 times in the regular season, Manning has been dropped just twice in the playoffs.

The New England secondary was victimized by Manning back in Week 9, when the All-Pro completed 20-of-36 passes for 326 yards with two touchdowns and an ultimately inconsequential Chad Scott (46 tackles, 2 INT) interception. Scott has since been replaced in the lineup by Ellis Hobbs (44 tackles, 2 INT), and Hobbs and fellow corner Asante Samuel (64 tackles, 10 INT) will be charged with the task of slowing Harrison and Wayne on Sunday. With Rodney Harrison (49 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) considered doubtful due to a lingering knee injury, James Sanders (44 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is likely to again be featured at the safety slot along with Artrell Hawkins (71 tackles, 1 INT). Sanders and Hawkins combined for 13 tackles and a pair of sacks against San Diego last week. The Patriots did manage to sack Manning three times in the Week 9 loss, with outside linebacker Roosevelt Colvin (8.5 sacks) breaking through to the quick-triggered signal-caller for a sack-and-a-half.

With the Patriots likely to concentrate most of their defensive efforts on stopping Manning and the Indianapolis passing game, Colts running backs Joseph Addai (1081 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 8 TD) and Dominic Rhodes (641 rushing yards, 5 TD, 36 receptions) have the potential to do some damage on Sunday. The two were terrific against Kansas City in the Wild Card round, totaling 190 yards in a winning effort, and kept Baltimore's top-notch defense honest with 95 ground yards on 32 tough carries last Saturday. Addai has also been a major factor in the passing game during his first postseason, as his 10 catches are tied with Wayne for second-most on the team. The Colts were 18th in NFL rushing offense (110.1 yards per game) during the regular season.

The Patriots were able to win in San Diego despite never finding much of an answer for LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers' running game. Tomlinson had 187 combined yards (123 rushing, 64 receiving) on 25 touches with two touchdowns for the day, while backup Michael Turner added 24 ground yards and a TD of his own. The three-man New England front of Vince Wilfork (50 tackles, 1 sack) in the middle and Richard Seymour (40 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Ty Warren (84 tackles, 7.5 sacks) on the ends will seek to slow Addai and Rhodes at the point of attack. Warren had seven tackles against the Chargers last week, but Wilfork and Seymour were both quiet in the win. Inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (112 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Mike Vrabel (89 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 3 INT) will try to make some plays behind the front line. Bruschi posted a team-high 11 stops in San Diego, while Vrabel made an impact with six stops, a sack, and a forced fumble. The Patriots were fifth in the league against the run during the regular season (94.2 yards per game), and held Addai and Rhodes to 56 yards on 22 combined carries back in Week 9.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski (20-26 FG) has experienced a solid first postseason for the Pats, connecting on all six of his field goal attempts and hitting a 31-yard game-winner against the Chargers last Sunday. Gostkowski, who also nailed a 50-yarder in San Diego, was 2-for-3 on trifectas against Indy on Nov. 5th. Punter Todd Sauerbrun (40.8 avg.) has been steady, averaging 42.6 yards on nine boots. Laurence Maroney (28.0 kickoff return avg.) and Ellis Hobbs (36.0 kickoff return avg., 1 TD) have taken turns on kickoff returns during the postseason, while Kevin Faulk (10.6 punt return avg.) has been handed punt return duties. New England allowed two punt returns for touchdowns during the regular season.

The sizeable free agent contract the Colts gave ex-Patriot Adam Vinatieri (25-28 FG) during the offseason paid major dividends last week, when Vinatieri scored all of Indianapolis' points in a 5-for-5 field goal performance that included kicks of 51 and 48 yards. Vinatieri, who played in four Super Bowls as a member of the Patriots from 1996 through 2005, was just 2-of-4 on field goals against his former team in Week 9, missing on kicks of 37 and 46 yards. Punter Hunter Smith (44.4 avg.) has been reliable as usual, averaging 42.7 yards per kick in the postseason. Return man Terrence Wilkins (9.2 punt return avg., 1 TD, 24.5 kickoff return avg.) has done a good job getting the Colts advantageous field position, though he had trouble fielding the football cleanly last week in Baltimore.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Colts' defensive performance of the last two weeks has led some to believe that their run-stopping woes are a thing of the past, though that analysis glosses over some important facts. Indy has undoubtedly been better in that area since Bob Sanders' return to the secondary, but has also benefited from playing against Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis, a pair of one-cut, between-the- tackles rushers. The Patriots' running backs (especially Maroney) offer a different set of problems for the Colts, who had their biggest struggles against multi-back attacks like those of the Jaguars and Titans. For that reason, look for New England to have terrific success on the ground, in turn keeping the ball out of Manning's hands for long stretches. When the Indianapolis offense is on the field, Manning will be able to do some damage against a New England secondary that misses Rodney Harrison. But Belichick will throw enough wrinkles at the Colts attack to force Manning into making a major mistake with the game on the line.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Patriots 24, Colts 20

[wayne1218]

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[wayne1218]

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