Monday Trends and Indexes 01/08

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Trends and Indexes for Monday, January 8

Good Luck on day #8 of 2007!

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Dunkel Index - College Football (BCS Championship Game)

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Dunkel



MONDAY, JANUARY 8

Game 489-490: Florida vs. Ohio State (in Glendale, AZ)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 102.077; Ohio State 117.949
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 16; 51
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 7 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-7 1/2); Over

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College Football - Long Sheet

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Long Sheet


Monday, January 8

FLORIDA (12 - 1) vs. OHIO ST (12 - 0) - 1/8/2007, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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College Football - Short Sheet

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Short Sheet


Monday, January 8th

BCS Championship Game , Glendale, Arizona
Florida vs. Ohio State, 8:00 EST

Florida:
1-6 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
8-1 Under vs. non-conference opponents

Ohio State:
8-2 ATS off a home conference win
16-6 ATS as a favorite

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College Football – Tips and Trends

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Tips and Trends


Monday, January 8

BCS Championship - #2 Florida vs. #1 Ohio State
( FOX | 8 PM ET)

• As a head coach, Urban Meyer is 3-0 in bowl games. Coach Meyer-led teams are 20-2 (.909) all-time when having more than one week to prepare for a game. BIG EDGE: FLORIDA

• Ohio State is 12-0 on the year and has won 19 straight games. EDGE: OHIO STATE

• The 2006 Buckeyes are attempting to become the first OSU squad ever to go wire-to-wire as No. 1. This is the seventh Buckeye squad to open the season No. 1 EDGE: FLORIDA

• Ohio State Heisman-winning quarterback Troy Smith is 25-2 as the Buckeyes' starting quarterback, including 10-1 against ranked teams. BIG EDGE: OHIO STATE

• The No. 1 Buckeyes have faced a pair of No. 2 teams this year - downing both Texas and Michigan. Ohio State is now 4-0 all-time in showdowns involving the nations top two teams. EDGE: OHIO STATE

• Ohio State is 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.

• The OVER is 4-0 in the Gators' last four games in January.

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College Football – Write up

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Write-up


Monday, January 8

BCS Championship Game, Phoenix

Anything can happen in one game, but Ohio State was clearly best team in country this season, so much so that the race for #2 actually became intriguing. Despite replacing nine seniors on defense from LY's team, Buckeyes beat Texas in Austin, beat Michigan, and won only two games all season by less than 17 pts (they were 9-3 vs. spread, despite being double digit favorite in nine games). If I had vote for #1 in final poll, I might vote for Ohio State even if they lose this game.

Jim Tressel has won five national titles, four at the I-AA level, so you know he's terrific in spots like this; not only does he have the best team, he has a senior QB Urban Meyer won and covered his bowl game the last three years; they have senior QB in Leak, and have odd system of putting in frosh QB Tebow, a better runner, when they have short yardage situations. Anyone who wins the SEC is a worthy opponent, but Florida eeked out wins to get to this point. Ohio State crushed people (except for Michigan, Illinois) to get here.

Ohio State is playing an Arizona bowl for fourth time in last five years, having won Fiesta Bowl in '02.'03 and '05; under Tressel, they've become dominant big game team. With QB Smith trying to ride off in blaze of glory, its hard to envision Ohio St losing this game.

I like the Buckeyes to win the national title and also cover.

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College Football – Preview

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Preview


Monday, January 8

BCS Championship Preview

Everything has gone right for the Ohio State Buckeyes so far this season. They completed their schedule with a 12-0 record, got past Big Ten rival Michigan, retained the top ranking from start to finish, and got a Heisman Trophy for quarterback Troy Smith. Now all that's left for the Buckeyes to do is win the national title game on Monday.

And both oddsmakers and bettors like Ohio State's chances of getting that 13th victory when they play the Florida Gators at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona (8:30pm ET, FOX). The Buckeyes opened as big 8-point favorites back when the bowl lines came out, and action through the month of December only dropped that line to 7 or 7.5 at most books. The game's total has gone from an opening 48 to a current 46 points.

So let's look at those numbers first. We know the Buckeyes and the Gators were a combined 24-1 straight-up this season, but how well did Ohio State and Florida pay off for their supporters? Putting money down on Ohio State proved to be lucrative; Troy Smith and company went 9-3 against-the-spread in 2006. As well, the Buckeyes were 4-1 ATS away from their home stadium and 8-3 ATS as the favored team. However, Ohio State did pick up two ATS losses in their final three games, including vs. Michigan.

Florida, on the other hand, only managed to cover the spread in three of their 11 contests in 2006, and they were 0-4 ATS on the road. The Gators, though, did cover the spread in their last game, a 38-28 win over the Arkansas Razorbacks that allowed them to move up to the No. 2 ranking and earn a shot at the national title. The BCS Championship Game marks the first time all year the Gators are listed as the underdog.

As for the total, OVER bettors have lost a bundle on both Ohio State and Florida so far this season. The Buckeyes were 3-9 on the OVER/UNDER in 2006, while the Gators were 3-8. Both teams, though, are coming off convincing OVER results - the Buckeyes and Wolverines combined for 81 points in their clash back on November 18, while the total for the big Gators/Razorbacks contest on December 2 had been listed at 45 points.

One big question for Ohio State in this matchup - will they be rusty? The Buckeyes haven't seen any game action since beating Michigan 50 days ago. The Gators have played twice since then - topping both Florida State and Arkansas in high-profile matchups. Smith went 29-of-41 for 316 yards against the Wolverines, with four touchdown passes and one interception. Antonio Pittman had 18 carries for 139 yards and a score, while Ted Ginn Jr. had eight catches for 104 yards and a single touchdown.

Gators quarterback Chris Leak is coming off a poor outing in the SEC title game against Arkansas. Leak completed just 16-of-30 pass attempts for 189 yards, with one touchdown (plus one rushing touchdown) and two interceptions. Percy Harvin had six carries for 105 yards and a score, and five catches for 62 yards and a score. Against the Seminoles Leak completed 21-of-34 pass attempts for 283 yards with two TD tosses.

Florida played three other times against ranked opponents in 2006 - beating Tennessee and LSU, but getting tagged for a loss by Auburn in mid-October. Leak threw for just 108 yards against the Tigers, and Harvin was held to just 66 yards on the ground. Those two will need to step up their games against top-ranked Ohio State on Monday night if the Gators have any chance of proving everyone wrong and winning the game.

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College Football - Recent Trends

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Recent Trends


Monday, January 8

Florida:
Under is 8-1 in FLA last 9 non-conference games.
Under is 18-8 in FLA last 26 games overall.
Under is 35-16 in FLA last 51 night games.

Ohio State:
OHIST are 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 8-2 in OHIST last 10 games on Grass.
OHIST are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

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College Football – In Depth Trends

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In Depth Trends


Monday, January 8

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

Florida
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
Gators are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Gators are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on Grass.

Ohio State
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Buckeyes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.
Buckeyes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Buckeyes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on Grass.
Buckeyes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. win.


O/U Trends

Florida
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games in January.
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 vs. Big Ten.
Under is 8-1 in Gators last 9 non-conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Gators last 5 Bowl games.
Over is 4-1 in Gators last 5 bowl games.
Under is 6-2 in Gators last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 6-2 in Gators last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 14-5 in Gators last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 18-8 in Gators last 26 games overall.
Under is 35-16 in Gators last 51 night games.

Ohio State
Under is 6-0 in Buckeyes last 6 non-conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Under is 8-2 in Buckeyes last 10 games on Grass.
Under is 10-3 in Buckeyes last 13 games overall.
Under is 9-3 in Buckeyes last 12 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 9-3 in Buckeyes last 12 games as a favorite.
Under is 6-2 in Buckeyes last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Buckeyes last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-3 in Buckeyes last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.


Head to Head
No trends available.

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College Football - Betting Trends

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BETTING TRENDS


Monday, January 8

FLORIDA
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

OHIO STATE
Ohio State is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Ohio State's last 13 games

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College Football - Injuries

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INJURIES


Monday, January 8

Florida vs. Ohio State

FLORIDA
PLAYER - POSITION - DESCRIPTION
Javier Estopinan DT Out For Bowl Game (leg)
Marcus Thomas DT Out For Bowl Game (disciplinary)
Jon Demps LB Doubtful For Bowl Game (knee)
Nyan Boateng WR Questionable For Bowl Game (leg)
Tate Casey TE Questionable For Bowl Game (ankle)
Drew Miller OL Probable For Bowl Game (ankle)
DeShawn Wynn RB Probable For Bowl Game (foot)

OHIO STATE
PLAYER - POSITION - DESCRIPTION
Mike D'Andrea LB Out For Bowl Game (knee)
Marcel Frost TE Out For Bowl Game (suspension)
Anderson Russell FS Out For Bowl Game (knee)
Antonio Smith CB Probable For Bowl Game (shoulder)

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NBA
Write up


Monday, January 8

Hot Teams
-- Bulls covered five of their last six games. Rockets won six of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Clippers lost four of their last five road games. Hornets lost 14 of their last 18 games- they miss Chris Paul.
-- Milwaukee lost three of its last four games. Nuggets lost last five games, by 10,4,11,19,12 points.

Series Records
-- Home side won last four Clipper-Hornet games.
-- Last three Chicago-Houston games were decided by total of just seven points, with visitor winning two of three.
-- Visiting team won both Denver-Milwaukee games last year..

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Rockets are 3-5 when they played the day before.

Totals
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Clipper games.
-- Five of last seven Chicago games went over the total.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Denver's last five games.

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NHL
Write up


Monday, January 8

Hot Teams
-- Los Angeles won its last three home games.

Cold Teams
-- Edmonton lost ten of its last thirteen games overall.

Series Records
-- Oilers are 3-2 in last five games vs Los Angeles, losing 7-4 at home to Kings Dec 28.

Back-to-Back Situations
-- None today.

Totals
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Edmonton's last six games.

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NCAAB
Write up


Monday, January 8

-- William & Mary won eight of its last nine games; they're 2-1 in CAA, winning at George Mason. Home side won both games vs Georgia State LY, with Tribe losing 79-70 here (+3). CAA home favorites are 2-7 against spread so far this season.

-- VCU lost 79-74 at Northeastern L:Y (+4) but Rams are 9-1 last ten games, 3-0 in CAA, winning by 19,4,16 pts. Huskies are 1-2 in CAA, 2-0-1 against the spread, losing 73-67 to ODU, 60-57 at WmMary. VCU is 6-4 vs spread as favorite, 1-2 in CAA.

-- Old Dominion KO'd Hofstra from CAA tourney the last three years, by 14,14,10 pts; both sides are 3-0 in CAA. Hofstra is 4-2 in regular season games vs ODU, with five of six games decided by five or less pts. Pride is 10-1 in last 11, after an 0-3 start.

-- Delaware is 2-12 this season, 0-3 in CAA, losing by 19,15,25 pts; they're 9-41 from arc last two games. Towson lost twice last week in double OT, making just 5-29 treys Saturday, so tough to cover as road favorite after struggling at end of games recently.

-- George Mason is already 0-3 in CAA, scoring only 58.3 ppg; home side is 5-1 in their last six games vs NC-Wilmington, with Seahawks losing last three visits to this site, 69-62/74-69/59-46. UNCW is also 0-3 in CAA, losing by 7,11,14 points.

-- Drexel won last five games vs James Madison, taking last two at this site, 75-66/62-59; Dragons have showdown with Hofstra on Wednesday, so they could be looking ahead. Dukes are 1-2 in CAA, losing by 13,16. Drexel is 3-0, winning by 12,6,14 points.

-- Visiting team won three of last four Villanova-Georgetown tilts with Wildcats winning last two visits to this site, 67-56/75-60. Villanova is 0-2 in Big East, scoring only 60.5 ppg. Hoyas waxed Notre Dame 66-48 Saturday in their Big East opener.

-- Nevada is 5-2 in last seven games vs Boise, winning three in row in Reno: 81-67/84-66/92-78. Wolf Pack won six games in row after easy win vs Idaho; they're 4-4-1 as favorite. Boise is 1-5 on road this season, with last three losses by four or less points.

-- Portland is 5-2 in last seven games vs LMU, taking two of last three at home: 68-84/74-57/74-59.Pilots beat Pepperdine in WCC opener Saturday, while Lions had misfortune of losing to angry Gonzaga club by 35. WCC home teams were 4-0 vs spread Sat.

-- Texas Tech won last four games vs Kansas State, but this is Huggins' Big 12 home debut, and Little Apple is fired up. I was going to have K-State as selection here, but star frosh Walker played only five minutes at A&M Saturday and may be hurt.

-- Gonzaga is 6-0 vs Pepperdine last three years, winning three games here, 102-73/86-62/93-73. Zags won WCC opener 97-62 after an overly ambitious non-leaguer schedule. Waves lost at Portland in WCC opener, they're 4-13 in Wallberg's first season.

-- Manhattan won five of last six games vs Canisius, losing here LY, 86-75 (+5); Jaspers are 2-1 in MAAC, sweeping Fairfield in their two games. Griffins are 1-3, losing 80-69 at Marist, 75-64 at Fairfield. MAAC home favorites are 6-8 vs spread this season.

-- Elon is 2-10 vs D-I teams, losing by hoop to Penn Saturday; they're 1-2 in SoCon, losing by 25,3 pts- home loss to Citadel is bad sign. Home side won five of last six series games, as UNCG lost last three visits to Elon, 62-56/54-50/112-108 (3 ot).

-- Chattanooga won last three games vs Western Carolina, with Catamounts losing last three visits to this site, 71-67/81-61 and 109-79, but Western is 3-1 in SoCon this season, while Mocs are 0-4, allowing 84.5 ppg in pair of home losses.

-- Home side won five of last six Wofford-Georgia Southern tilts, with Terriers losing last three visits to Statesboro, 91-75/79-76/ 81-63. Wofford is 0-4 in SoCon, losing by 23,6,10,3 pts; again, a home loss to Citadel is red flag. SoCon home faves are 4-9.

-- Murray State is 5-2 in last seven games vs SE Missouri, 2-1 in last three at home: 81-68/58-61/76-63. Racers are 5-2 in OVC, with three OT games in last six OVC tilts. SE Missouri scored 84 ppg in winning both games last week; they're 3-1 as an OVC dog.

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Six-Pack for Monday

-- If the Giants called San Diego now and offered to undo the Manning/Rivers trade, would they get hung up on right away, or would Chargers be laughing too hard to hang up?

-- Did anyone out there think Clemson would be the last unbeaten college basketball team? I didn't think so.

-- College hoop coaches rarely get thrown out of games; in 46 games at Siena, Fran McCaffery has gotten tossed twice. Why the anger, coach?

-- How on God's green earth is Tom Brady not in Pro Bowl?

-- If you had $100 to bet on Patriot-Charger game, could you possibly take Marty's (5-12 career playoff record) San Diego team and give Belichick 4.5 points?

-- Has anyone checked to see if Nick Saban applied for the opening at Louisville?