Wednesday Trends and Indexes 01/03

[pm530]

NCAA FB
Dunkel - Write-up


WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 3

Notre Dame vs. LSU
Things don't stack up all that well for Notre Dame in this year's Sugar Bowl. First the Irish have lost eight straight bowl games, including last year's 34-20 setback against Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. Second the Irish have not played particularly well in big games this season with losses to Michigan at home (47-21) and USC on the road (44-24) sticking out like sore thumbs. Third is how LSU looks on paper: 10th in scoring (33.08 ppg); 5th in scoring defense (12.05 ppg) and 3rd in total defense (238.75 yards). But what could give the Irish hope -- and keep the game within the Vegas line -- is LSU's propensity to let teams hang around in big games. The Tigers had their fair share of nail-biters, including several down the stretch against Arkansas (31-26), Ole Miss (23-20) and Tennessee (28-24). Throw in there the losses to Florida (23-10) and Auburn (7-3), and the Irish look to have a shot if Brady Quinn & Company play to their talent level. In a close call, Notre Dame looks like a decent underdog pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has LSU favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+9).

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(The index ratings for all of the remaining bowl games is at post #2)

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet

Wednesday, January 3rd

Milwaukee at Washington, 7:05 EST
Milwaukee: 12-4 ATS off a combined score of 205+ points
Washington: 17-35 ATS playing with 3+ days rest

Phoenix at Toronto, 7:05 EST
Phoenix: 8-2 Under after playing as a road favorite
Toronto: 9-2 ATS playing with 3+ days rest

LA Clippers at Miami, 7:35 EST
LA Clippers: 1-7 ATS as a road underdog
Miami: 5-1 Over after losing 3 of their last 4 games

Cleveland at Boston, 7:35 EST
Cleveland: 12-3 ATS away off ATS wins in 3 of their last 4 games
Boston: 1-13 ATS at home off a win as a road underdog

Golden State at Memphis, 8:05 EST
Golden State: 8-20 ATS in January
Memphis: 27-14 ATS playing with two days rest

San Antonio at Minnesota, 8:05 EST
San Antonio: 12-4 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
Minnesota: 9-1 Under as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Seattle at Houston, 8:35 EST
Seattle: 8-1 ATS after losing 3 of their last 4 games
Houston: 1-8 ATS off BB wins

Philadelphia at Utah, 9:05 EST NBATV
Philadelphia: 34-18 ATS as an underdog of 10+ points
Utah: 10-23 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents

New York at Portland, 10:05 EST
New York: 7-18 ATS playing without rest
Portland: 12-3 Over after losing 3 of their last 4 games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NHL
Short Sheet

Wednesday, January 3

Buffalo at Ottawa, 7:35 EST
Buffalo: 9-1 SU away off 3+ Unders
Ottawa: 2-6 SU at home off a loss

Dallas at Vancouver, 10:05 EST
Dallas: 8-0 SU after allowing 4+ goals
Vancouver: 4-12 SU off BB division wins

Columbus at Los Angeles, 10:35 EST
Columbus: 7-42 SU away off a division game
Los Angeles: 14-7 SU as a home favorite of -150 or less

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, January 3rd

Drexel at Georgia State, 12:00 EST
Drexel: 7-0 ATS off 5+ wins
Georgia State: 0-7 ATS at home off an ATS win

Northwestern at Penn State, 7:00 EST ESPNU
Northwestern: 7-1 Over after allowing 60 points or less
Penn State: 14-4 ATS at home off BB wins

(TC) Hofstra at NC Wilmington, 9:30 EST
Hofstra: 2-10 ATS away off a win as an underdog
NC Wilmington: 11-3 ATS off a road loss

Old Dominion at Northeastern, 7:00 EST
Old Dominion: 4-14 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less
Northeastern: 8-1 ATS in home games

La Salle at Rhode Island, 7:00 EST
La Salle: 6-0 ATS away after losing 4 of their last 5 games
Rhode Island: 8-21 ATS at home in January

St. Louis at St. Bonaventure, 7:00 EST
St. Louis: 23-11 ATS vs. conference opponents
St. Bonaventure: 7-17 ATS in home games

Virginia Commonwealth at Towson State, 7:00 EST
VA Commonwealth: 6-15 ATS vs. conference opponents
Towson State: 6-2 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points

Richmond at Virginia Tech, 7:00 EST
Richmond: 0-8 ATS after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
Virginia Tech: 7-0 Under at home off 3+ non-conference games

Kansas State at Xavier, 7:00 EST ESPN2
Kansas State: 12-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less
Xavier: 9-2 Over off a win

Yale at Boston College, 7:00 EST
Yale: 24-9 ATS away after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Boston College: 10-2 Over as a home favorite of 12.5+ points

Houston at Kentucky, 7:00 EST
Houston: 16-6 ATS playing their second game in seven days
Kentucky: 1-8 ATS off 5+ wins

Clemson at Florida State, 7:00 EST
Clemson: 0-6 ATS off BB Unders
Florida State: 8-1 Under off BB wins by 10+ points

William & Mary at George Mason, 7:00 EST
William & Mary: 2-11 ATS playing their third game in seven days
George Mason: 8-1 ATS off BB Unders

Ohio U at Marshall, 7:00 EST
Ohio U: 18-7 ATS after playing as an underdog
Marshall: 3-12 ATS playing their second game in eight days

Delaware at James Madison, 7:00 EST
Delaware: 10-2 ATS away after playing BB games as an underdog
James Madison: 1-8 ATS in January

Villanova at West Virginia, 7:30 EST
Villanova: 8-17 ATS after winning 8+ of their last 10 games
West Virginia: 6-0 ATS as a favorite

(TC) Louisville at Notre Dame, 6:00 EST
Louisville: 7-17 ATS off a non-conference game
Notre Dame: 6-0 ATS after making 50%+ of their three-pointers

Rutgers at Seton Hall, 7:30 EST
Rutgers: 27-15 Over as an underdog
Seton Hall: 4-16 ATS off BB games allowing 75+ points

Fordham at George Washington, 7:30 EST
Fordham: 6-1 Under off BB ATS losses
George Washington: 21-14 ATS vs. conference opponents

DePaul at St. John's, 7:30 EST
DePaul: 10-1 ATS away off a home win by 20+ points
St. John's: 2-9 ATS off a road game

Central Florida at Colorado, 7:30 EST
Central Florida: 2-10 ATS off an ATS win
Colorado: 7-1 Under off a non-conference game

Pennsylvania at North Carolina, 8:00 EST ESPN
Pennsylvania: 18-6 ATS away after scoring 80+ points
North Carolina: 6-0 Under off a home game

Evansville at Northern Iowa, 8:00 EST
Evansville: 12-3 Under away after playing as a road underdog
Northern Iowa: 12-3 ATS after winning 3 of their last 4 games

Duquesne at St. Joseph's, 8:00 EST
Duquesne: 0-7 ATS off a win as an underdog of 10+ points
St. Joseph's: 19-9 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

New Mexico at TCU, 8:00 EST
New Mexico: 15-5 Under after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
TCU: 0-9 ATS after allowing 55 points or less

Troy at Western Kentucky, 8:00 EST
Troy: 7-2 ATS off a win by 10+ points
Western Kentucky: 27-12 Over after playing BB games as a favorite

Illinois at Michigan, 8:00 EST
Illinois: 0-8 ATS off 3+ non-conference games
Michigan: 22-10 ATS at home in January

Purdue at Minnesota, 8:00 EST
Purdue: 1-9 ATS on Wednesdays
Minnesota: 8-2 Over off a non-conference game

Air Force at Colorado State, 8:30 EST
Air Force: 11-2 ATS off a non-conference game
Colorado State: 2-12 ATS off a road game

Gonzaga at Virginia, 9:00 EST ESPN2
Gonzaga: 13-4 ATS away off ATS losses in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
Virginia: 0-6 ATS at home off 3+ ATS losses

California at Stanford, 10:00 EST
California: 13-5 Under away off ATS wins in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Stanford: 8-1 ATS after playing as a road underdog

Wyoming at San Diego State, 10:00 EST
Wyoming: 2-8 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points
San Diego State: 8-0 Over in January

Utah at UNLV, 11:00 EST
Utah: 22-11 ATS off a home game
UNLV: 17-6 Over off BB road games


Added Games:
R Siena at Canisius, 7:00 EST
Siena: 8-1 Over off a loss
Canisius: 15-6 ATS off a win

The Citadel at Elon, 7:00 EST
The Citadel: 3-11 ATS off a home game
Elon: 8-1 Over off BB games scoring 30 or less first-half points

Tennessee Chattanooga at Furman, 7:00 EST
Tennessee Chatt: 21-9 ATS off an ATS loss
Furman: 5-14 ATS off a home win

St Peter's at Niagara, 7:00 EST
St Peter's: 13-4 ATS away after losing 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
Niagara: 2-11 ATS ta home off BB wins

Western Carolina at South Carolina, 7:30 EST
Western Carolina: 0-5 ATS after playing 4+ games as an underdog
South Carolina: 8-1 Under at home vs. non-conference opponents

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[pm530]

Six-Pack for Wednesday

-- Big East finished 4-0 in bowl games, after Louisville beat spunky Wake Forest, 24-13. They were 3-1 against spread, in season where Big East was money-earner for its backers.

-- Nick Saban's hesitation indicates he's not 100% into the Alabama job, unless he wants his staff in place before the switch is announced, but Alabama might be better off if.....

--.....they went after either Navy coach Johnson or Wake's Grobe; if you can win at Navy and Wake Forest, you sure as hell can win at Alabama.

-- A big name only gets you juice with your fans until you play your first game; then performance counts. Why spend $40M on a guy who appears unsure about the job?

-- Underdogs are still 11-4 vs spread in last fifteen bowls.

-- Bad times for the Orange Bowl; Dick Enberg used to call the game, now they're down to Matt Vasgersian. Not good.

[pm530]

Wednesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but............

13) John Kruk does an ad for Nutrisystems weight loss plan where he actually says, "My wife says I 'm not as disgusting to her as I used to be." Quite an endorsement of the system.

12) Allen Iverson played against the 76ers Tuesday; Denver lost, Iverson got tossed, then blamed the ref for having short fuse. Different color uniform, same Allen Iverson.

11) Not the best week for the Nuggets, who had to deal with the fallout from fatal shooting outside birthday party for their injured player Kenyon Martin.

10) You look at Wake Forest, see their most famous alumni are Arnold Palmer and Tim Duncan and you think that Wake must be a pretty cool school to go to.

9) Dwyane Wade looked pretty impressed to be standing next to Muhammad Ali during the Orange Bowl's coin flip.

8) I'm hoping Arena Football will be a big hit on ESPN when a new season starts in March, the 21st season of Arenaball.

7) Bob Huggins returns to Cincinnati Wednesday night as his Kansas State Wildcats visit Xavier. K-State has struggled on the road, but they've won their last six games overall.

6) Marist was supposed to run away with MAAC, but they lost 77-69 at Loyola Tuesday night. Jimmy Patsos is doing a good job with the Greyhounds.

5) When the college hoop season is over, the best signing of last off-season will be Missouri's inking Mike Anderson.

4) Big win for Larry Eustachy at Southern Miss, who got win over an SEC team when he beat Auburn 56-54 Tuesday.

3) Does Duke ever play a home game that isn't on TV?

2) I'd like to see more athletes follow the old mantra I once heard a judge say in court:
"Nothing good happens after midnight."

1) If I were the Dolphins, I'd be lot more worried about Jason Taylor retiring than Nick Saban going to Alabama.

[pm530]

NBA
Write up


Wednesday, January 3

Hot Teams
Bucks won seven of last eight games, covered eight of last nine. Wizards are 11-3 in their last fourteen games.
Suns won 17 of their last 19 games.
Clippers won three of their last four games.
Cleveland won four of its last five games.
Warriors won, covered five of last seven games. Grizzlies are 2-0 vs. spread with Barone coaching, scoring 109.5 pg.
Spurs are 8-1 SU in game following a loss (7-2 vs. spread). Minnesota is 4-2 in its last six games.
Houston won last three games, by 25,26,2 points.
Utah is 22-8, 10-7 in last 17 games, 3-1 in last four.

Cold Teams
Toronto lost three of its last four games.
Heat lost last three games, by 6,10,29 points.
Celtics lost six of their last seven games.
Seattle lost nine of its last twelve games.
76ers are 1-5 vs. spread in game following their last six wins.
Knicks lost last six road game (0-5 vs. spread in last five). Blazers lost five of their last six games.

Series Records
Home side won both Wizard-Buck games this season, with Bucks winning 119-102 in last meeting Saturday.
Suns won last three games vs Toronto by 14,8,17 points.
Home side won last three Clipper-Miami games.
Cavaliers won their last five games against the Celtics.
Memphis beat Warriors three times LY, by 10,2,25 points.
Spurs won their last five games against the Timberwolves.
Rockets were 3-1 vs. Seattle LY, winning by 17,23,28 points.
Jazz beat Philly twice LY, by 6,8 points.
Home side won both Knick-Portland games last season.

Back-to-Back Situations-- Suns are 5-3 SU if they played day before (4-4 vs. spread).
Clippers are 5-3 vs. spread if they played the night before.
Cavaliers are 1-7 if they played the night before.
Warriors are 5-4 vs. spread on back end of back/back.
Spurs are 4-1 vs. spread on road if they played night before.
Seattle is 3-4 vs spread if it played the night before.
76ers are 5-3-1 vs. spread if they played the night before.
Knicks are 2-6 vs. spread if they played the night before.

Totals
Over is 8-1 last nine games for both Milwaukee, Washington.
Last six Toronto games all went over the total, but only two of last 12 Phoenix games did.
Four of last five Miami games stayed under the total.
Six of last seven Boston games stayed under the total.
Last nine Memphis games went over the total.
Seven of last nine Minnesota games went over the total.
Five of last seven Houston games stayed under the total.
Four of last five Utah games stayed under the total.
Under is 9-5 in last 14 Portland games.