Tuesday Trends and Indexes 1/2

[Udog]

NCAAB
Write-up

Auburn whacked Southern Miss 80-57 LY (-5); Tigers are 4-1 in last five games, open SEC play vs Vanderbilt Saturday. Oddly this is Tigers first true road game of season. USM lost last two games, 77-64 vsalabama, 83-73 at Bradley.

Youngstown lost 67-62 at Akron LY (+26); Penguins won four of last five games, are 5-3 vs spread as dogs this season. Zips are 6-2 in last eight games. Horizon home dogs are 4-2 against the spread. MAC road favorites are 2-5 against the spread.

UConn beat South Florida 66-53 LY (-17); Young Huskies are 3-1-1 vs spread as favorite this season, are coming off first loss at West Virginia, and have game at LSU Saturday. Bulls upset Wake Forest last week; they're 2-2 vs spread as underdog.

Duke beat Temple by eight pts in each of last two years, with Owls covering both games; Duke opens ACC play with Virginia Tech Saturday; they're 8-3 vs spread as favorite. Temple lost to Villanova by 18 Saturday; they're 0-2-1 vs spread as underdog.

UMass won last four games, is 10-3 this season, 3-2 vs spread as favorite; A-14 home favorites are 18-23 vs spread. Miami lost last three games, to Binghamton, Louisville, Nebraska; they are 1-2 as underdog. ACC road dogs are 2-9 against the spread.

Home side won last four Indiana-Ohio State games, with the Hoosiers losing last two visits to OSU, 52-51/57-44; Indiana won last four games, is 9-3 this season, losing by 5,3,5 pts to Butler, Duke, Kentucky. Buckeyes are 5-3 vs spread as a favorite.

South Alabama won last two games vs Middle Tennessee, by 3,12 points; USA lost four of last five games, is 0-3-1 vs spread as favorite. MTSU also lost four of last five games; they won at FIU Sunday, 60-46. Sun Belt home favorites are 8-9 vs spread.

Rice won four of last five games; they're 3-2 vs spread as dog this season (3-2 SU at home). C-USA home dogs are 3-1 against spread. Vanderbilt won seven of last eight games; they lost only true road game, 88-78 at Wake Forest. SEC road faves are 3-7.

Tulsa won five of last six games, losing 58-48 vs Oklahoma in only loss; they lost only true road game 65-63 at North Texas. Arkansas is 3-4 vs spread as favorite; they're 10-3 SU, but open SEC play vs Alabama Saturday, could be looking ahead.

Home side won last six Missouri St-Bradley games, as Bears lost last three visits to Peoria, 86-76/81-70/79-72; State lost last game at Creighton, when they led by 11 with 4:40 left. Braves are 1-1 in Valley, they shot 46.2% from arc (24-52) in those games.

Home side is 4-2 in last six Detroit-Green Bay games, with the Titans 1-2 in last three visits to this site, losing by 1,3 pts. Home favorites are 3-1 vs spread in Horizon games. Detroit is 3-9 this season, 0-7 on road- they're 4-1-1 vs spread as an underdog.

Mississippi State is 8-1 at home (lost to Winthrop), 1-2 away from home (66-68 at Clemson, 59-63 at Geo Mason, 70-52 Miami) Missouri is 10-2, 1-2 in last three; they're 1-0-1 vs spread as fave they're 7-0 SU at home, beating Arkansas, Davidson, Evansville.

Cal-Riverside lost last eight games, dropping league games by 8,3 pts; their Big West home opener is Thursday. UCR is 4-1-1 as a dog this season. UTEP has been off for ten days; they are 3-5 in last eight games, open league play vs UAB Saturday.

NC-Greensboro lost 83-52 at NC State LY (+23); Spartans won six of last eight games, are 3-4 as underdog. Wolfpack is 8-4 in Lowe's first season, 1-2 as favorite. SoCon road dogs are 20-20 vs spread. ACC home favorites are 32-22 against the spread.

Home side won five of last six Marist-Loyola games, with Red foxes 1-2 in last three visits to this site, losing 78-75 LY (+1). So far this season, favorites are 6-3 vs spread in MAAC. Marist is 2-2 on road, winning at Richmond, losing at Ohio, Wright State.

Eastern Kentucky won four of last five games vs SE Missouri, taking last two at this site, 80-51/83-72. SEMO lost last four in OVC play, by 3,15,3,1 point. OVC home favorites are 5-13 so far. EKU is 3-1 in OVC, winning by 6,16,13; they're 2-1 as favorite.

Tennessee State won three of last four games vs Morehead, winning 83-75 here LY: Tigers lost by 12 here in Albany last wk, they're 0-7 on road, 3-5 as underdog. Morehead State is 3-1 in OVC, winning by 4,1,8 pts, surprisingly good start for them.

Fairfield won five of last six games vs Rider, winning all three in this gym, 85-81/72-69/65-40, but Stags are 3-9 this season, 0-4 on road- they're 3-4 as dog. MAAC favorites are 6-3 vs spread. Rider lost by 50 at Notre Dame after losing at Villanova by 47.

Austin Peay won four of last five games vs UT-Martin, taking last two games int his gym, 96-88/88-64. Martin was in Hawai'i last week; they're 1-3 in OVC, losing by 2,1,13 pts; they're 2-11 in last 13 games. Peay is 2-1 in OVC, winning by 7,2 points.

Samford is 3-2 in last five games vs Tennesee Tech, with road team winning last two; Tech is 2-5 in last seven games, 1-2 in its OVC tilts, losing by 7,5 pts. Samford is 3-0 in OVC, all on road, winning its games by 1,1,11 points

Murray State won five of its last six games vs Eastern Illinois, losing 59-54 here last year (-12); Racers are 3-2 in OVC, with four of the five games decided by three or less pts, or in OT. EIU has lost four of five OVC games, losing home games by 16,8 points.

Manhattan lost seven of last eight games, losing 74-61 in first game of western trip to Long Beach Saturday. Jaspers are 4-1 vs spread as dog. MAAC road dogs are 14-17. Pepperdine is 4-11, but is 2-0 vs spread as favorite. WCC home favorites are 17-14.

[pm530]

NBA
Write up


Tuesday, January 2

Hot Teams
-- Spurs, Cavaliers both won three of their last four games.
-- Clippers won last three games by 23,9,10 points.
-- Warriors won four of their last six games.
-- Mavericks won last ten games (1-3 vs spread in last four).
-- Chicago won 16 of last 19 games, Suns 18 of last 20..
-- Kings won three of their last four games.

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost four of its last five games.
-- Hornets lost four of their last five games.
-- Seattle lost its last eight road games (3-5 vs spread).
-- Philly lost three of its last four games. Nuggets lost last two games, scoring only 87 ppg.
-- Knicks lost last five road games, by 8,16,21,22,10 points.

Series Records
-- Cavaliers won 88-81 at Alamo Nov 3, their second win last three games vs Spurs.
-- Clippers won last three games vs Magic by 12,17,25 points.
-- Home side won all the Warrior-Hornet games this season.
-- Mavericks won four in row vs Seattle, by 19,3,7,8 points.
-- Suns beat Chicago twice LY, by 9ot,17 points.
-- Iverson meets up with old teammates for first time; the series records are irrelevant, since Iverson changed teams.
-- Visitor won both Knick-King games last season.

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Spurs are 5-2 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- Clippers are 0-8 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- Warriors are 6-3 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- Seattle is 4-0 vs spread on front end of back/back, when both games are on the road.
-- Suns are 6-2 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- 76ers are 4-5 vs spread on front end of back/back.
-- Knicks are 5-3 vs spread on front end of back/back.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Under is 17-6 in Orlando's last 23 games.
-- Five of last seven Warrior games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Dallas games all stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last 11 Phoenix games stayed under total; last four Chicago games went over.
-- Under is 8-4 in Philly's last dozen games.
-- Four of last five Knick games stayed under total.

[pm530]

NHL
Write up


Tuesday, January 2

Hot Teams
-- Detroit won ten of last thirteen games.
-- Devils won last three games, allowing three goals.
-- Flyers won last two games, scoring nine goals, after 10-game losing streak.
-- Lightning won four of last six games.
-- Hurricanes won six of last eight games (1-2 in last three).
-- Blues won five of their last six games.
-- Thrashers won six of their last seven games. Minnesota won its last seven home games.
-- Florida won five of its last seven games.
-- Vancouver won last three games, scoring 15 goals. Calgary won last two games, scoring ten goals.

Cold Teams
-- Anaheim is 1-3 on their current road trip.
-- Rangers lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Islanders lost last three games, 0-2/0-2/1-3.
-- Montreal lost three of its last four games.
-- Penguins lost five of their last six games.
-- Chicago lost 12 of last 16 road games.
-- Oilers lost eight of their last ten games.

Series Records
-- Home side won four of last five Anaheim-Detroit games.
-- Rangers are 2-1 vs New Jersey this season: 1-6/3-2/4-2.
-- Visiting team won both Islander-Flyer games this season.
-- Canadiens are 4-2 vs Tampa Bay this season: 4-2/1-3/3-1.
-- Carolina beat Penguins twice this year, 6-2/5-1.
-- Visiting team is 3-2 in Chicago-St Louis games this season.
-- Atlanta, Minnesota didn't face each other last season.
-- Florida, Edmonton didn't face each other last season.
-- Canucks are 3-2 in last five games vs Calgary.

Back-to-Back Situations
-- Islanders are 5-3 if they played the day before.
-- Thrashers are 5-4 if they played the night before.
-- Canucks are 6-1 on front end of back/back.

Totals
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Anaheim games.
-- Four of last five Ranger games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Islander games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Montreal games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Carolina games.
-- Under is 8-1-1 since St Louis changed coaches.
-- Last four Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Edmonton games.
-- Last three Calgary games all went over the total.

[Dennis14072]

Thanks Guys!

[pm530]

NCAA FB
Dunkel - Write-up

TUESDAY, JANUARY 2

Louisville vs. Wake Forest
There's no doubt Louisville will bring plenty of offense to tonight's Orange Bowl. Even with a season-ending injury to RB Michael Bush, the Cardinals finished third in country in total yards per game (485.8) and points per game (38.9). But what makes exceeding the point total a challenge is Wake Forest. The Deacons at times have struggled offensively behind back-up QB Riley Skinner such as when they scored only 6 points against Virginia Tech and 9 against Georgia Tech. But Jim Grobe's team has also made up for it with a defense that pitched a shutout against FSU and held Tech and Boston College to 6 and 14 points, respectively. In only one game this season did the point total in a Wake game exceed 50 points (vs. Maryland). Meanwhile Louisville had five games that came under that total (Miami, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Syracuse and South Florida). Wake's efforts to avoid a shootout should help keep it under the Vegas total (51 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the total set at 45. Dunkel Pick: Under.

- -

(The index ratings for all of the remaining bowl games is at post #2)

[pm530]

Six-Pack for Tuesday

-- Boise State-Oklahoma proves the non-BCS teams will go to big games and win, just like they do in college hoops.

-- Funny how Boise didn't open up their playbook until the game looked lost, but once they opened it, there were some fun ball plays in there that worked easily.

-- Have a nice winter, Lloyd Carr.

-- Maybe its just me, but haven't we spent a lot of January 1's watching Michigan and Ohio State, mostly Michigan, lose Rose Bowls they were supposed to win?

-- Whenever you see a team suspend its QB for grades just before a bowl, you KNOW they have a backup ready to go. Georgia Tech was such a team Monday.

-- Beware Tommy Tuberville; two of last three coaches who won the Cotton Bowl were David Cutcliffe, Mike Shula.

[pm530]

Tuesday's List of 13: Wrapping up a great January 1.....

13) Not to say Boise State's OT win was Cinderella story, but Ian Johnson scored the winning 2-point conversion, then ran over to the stands, tossed the ball to his girlfriend and asked her to marry him. She said yes.

12) What a ballgame that was. I'll put it this way; my 80-year old dad stayed up to watch the end, all the way to 12:50 am, and he doesn't stay up unless its a damn good game.

11) Javier Arenas, who ran punt back 86 yards for TD in the Independence Bowl for Alabama, is cousin of Gilbert Arenas.

10) Chiefs' RB Larry Johnson set all-time record for carries in a season (416) and he figures to get 20 or so more Saturday. The guy who used to hold the record, Jamal Anderson, had a very short career, carrying ball 19 times the year after he set the record. Anderson played home games on hard turf, but...

9) When you try to placate parents of your players instead of trying to win, you wind up like Arkansas did Monday, losing to an inferior team. Parents of freshman QB Mustain did their share of complaining, even talking to the AD, so Mustain got four series to show himself in the bowl, during which Hogs scored zero points. When you play politics, you're dead.

8) Any team that doesn't decide on a quarterback is doomed to fail. You need to define roles, then move on.

7) Wichita State was once 9-0, with four solid road wins, but now they're 9-4, 0-2 in the Missouri Valley Conference.

6) Lookalikes: Poker pro Erick Lindgren and Boomer Esiason.

5) Nebraska's basketball team played zero home games in the entire month of December. Must be a football school.

4) Am curious to know how many people go to both games on days where Clippers and Lakers both play at Staples, like they did on Sunday.

3) Jim Mora, Dennis Green both got the boot Sunday; Green once coached the Vikings; wonder if the Minnesota Gophers would be interested in his services.....

2) Darrant Williams was shot and killed outside a nightclub late Sunday, leaving a birthday party for Nuggets' player Kenyon Martin. How sad.

1) If the rest of 2007 is anything like January 1, this will be an helluva interesting year.