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NORTHCOAST'S POWERSWEEP
SUMMARY OF PLAYS
NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* ST LOUIS over Arizona
3* BUFFALO over San Diego
2* ATLANTA over Seattle
2* PITTSBURGH over Carolina
NCAA SELECTIONS
DETAILED ANALYSIS
4* ST LOUIS over Arizona - The Rams took the first meeting between these teams 27-14 as a 3 pt AF which was a 4* Late hone Play Winner. QB Marc Bulger led the Rams to a 23-13 FD edge & the Rams outgained the Cardinals 415-235 in Arizona. The Rams, for all their past glory are only 2-8 ATS in prime time games since 1999 but this was due to the act teams were getting up to play one of the NFLs top teams not the Current 5-8 unit. Last week KC got up big on St Louis via an 88 yd kickoff ret, a 42 yd fumble ret & an 86 yd PR all for TDs to lead 35-10 at the half as QB Martin had 111 yds passing for the Rams while KCs Green only had 34 yds. Because of the score RB Faulk saw little 2H action & he should be healthier for this game. The Cardinals have enough players on injured reserve to field a complete special teams unit. They got a huge load off of their back last week with their win over the Lions snapping a 6 game losing streak & have nothing to play for here. Arizona comes in with the NFLs #28 offense & #30 defense taking on a much more talented Rams team that has Top 10 units on both sides of the ball (#10 offense & #7 defense). We see St Louis winning big at home here. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 31 Arizona 6
3* BUFFALO over San Diego - These teams met last year with different starting QBs as the Chargers lost 27-24 as 7 pt HFs. Buffalo finished with 22-17 FD & 396-338 yd edges as a blocked Charger FG at the end of regulation was the difference. The Chargers do not travel well as they are 3-13 SU & 5-10-1 ATS on the road vs teams in the Eastern time zone. Theyre however 8-2-1 ATS on turf since 1999. The Chargers are an overrated teamTY even though Marty Schottenheimer has done a good job of turning this team around in his first year here. They have the #19 rated offense & the defense is only at #27 for the year. Two weeks ago the Bills hosted a similarly styled warm weather team in the Dolphins in cold weather & outFDd them 21-14 & outgained them 431-300 with a 38-21 score. Last week the Chargers played a tough game vs the Raiders & have a road game vs theChiefs next week. With the Bills having lost LW we gain line value here. We side with the home team. FORECAST: BUFFALO 27 San Diego 14
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* ATLANTA over Seattle - In the last meeting Seattle beat the Falcons 30-10 as a 1 pt AF in 2000. The Falcons are coming off a long 3 game road trip & have a home game vs Detroit & a road game vs Cleveland up next. The Falcons are 11-4 ATS as a HF vs NFC teams. Defensively the Falcons rank #18 overall & TY have been allowing 97 ypg rushing (4.1) at home. The Seahawks defense has had its share of problems with injuries TY & lost DE Lamar King for the year in practice LW & his replacement Anton Palepoi had to leave the field in the last game due to an ankle injury. They are currently ranked #28 overall & are allowing 148 ypg rushing (4.2) on the road. Offensively they have at first glance a respectable #14 offense for the year but they have been getting a lot of garbage yds late in games the last 2 weeks such as when the 49ers went up 27-10 & the Eagles went up 27-6 & up off on them. Atlanta is off a loss to the Bucs in which Michael Vick was summarily shut down & he will want to make amends & at home is a good lace to do it. Seattle is in a tough spot here having just played San Fran & Philadelphia then travelling cross country to face the Falcons in a now hostile venue. FORECAST: ATLANTA 34 Seattle 17
2* PITTSBURGH over Carolina - The last time these teams met was in December of 1999 when the Steelers won 30-20 as 3pt HDs. LW Tommy Maddox returned for the Steelers & he threw for 325 yds (53%) with a 0-2 ratio with both ints being returned for TDs as well as a fumble. Pittsburgh is 2-7-1 ATS hosting NFC teams. The Panthers are 2-5 ATS as an AD of 7 or more vs AFC teams. LWs offensive display of 52 pts for the Panthers accounts for 25% of their 210 pts for the year. Carolina as an AD of 6 or more is 20-11-1 ATS since its inception. The Steelers outside of division play have 22-18 FD & 389-323 yd edges but have been outscored 27-22 on avg & are 1-6-1 ATS.The Panthers hold a 17-16 FD edge & have a surprising 317-272 yd edge with an avg score of 21-14 7 are 7-1 ATS in non-div play TY. The Steelers currently possess a half game lead over the Browns in the NFC North & have a Monday road game vs the Bucs up next. Cowher & Co should be in a surly jaw jutting mood here & they are taking on a Carolina team that was shut out by Atlanta, only had 234 yds of offense vs Cleveland & while they did gain 401 yds LW it was vs Cincy & they did have a 2 yd fumble ret, 61 & 87 yd punt returns for TDs which helped make things look worse than they really were. At the same time Pittsburgh did lose 24-6 but 21 of Houstons points were defensive returns for TDs. The Steelers actually outgained the Texans 422-47 & Houston only had THREE FIRST DOWNS & yet still scrambled out with the win. Pittsburgh takes care of business. FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 27 Carolina 6
NCAA SELECTIONS
NEW ORLEANS BOWL : December 17th @8pm ET on ESPN2
Cincinnati (7-6) At New Orleans, LA N Texas (7-5)
POWER PLAYS PROJECTION
RUSH PASS POINTS TO's SP TEAMS A.O.R.
Cincinnati: 105---230---23---2.4-91.7
N Texas: 195-----30---14---3.1---86.8
Tuesday, December 10, 2002
North Texas is 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS vs current CUSA teams since '98,but have won the L/2 ATS including earlier this year vs TCU, a 16-10 SU loss but ATS win as 12' pt AD's. Cincinnati beat that same TCU team in the season opener 36-26 as a 3' pt HF. The Bearcats are 2-0 SU & ATS vs current SBC teams since '98. These two teams played 16 straight years when both were members of the Missouri Valley Conference (last met 1973). NT leads the series 8-7-1 SU. The last meeting was a 52-3 blowout by UC. This will be the Bearcats' third straight bowl game which is a school record and they are 1-2 SU and ATS in the post season under HC Rick Minter. The Bearcats have been to the Motor City Bowl twice where they lost SU & ATS to MAC teams the last 2 years, and the Humanitarian Bowl where they defeated Utah St.UC is really fortunate to be here after a 2-5 SU start and their players and coaches have made that known. They have 13 senior starters compared to just 8 for NT. NT should however should have the home edge as they are here for the second straight year and their fans travelled very well last year to New Orleans. UC, on the other hand, had a very difficult time getting people to attend the Motor City Bowl which is much closer to home than this one.Each of their appearances in that game established a new low in attendance forthat bowl. UC also had just 10 days to sell tickets and Bowl packages to their fans which is the most compact time frame in the NCAA this year. The Bearcats were just 2-5 SU vs their 7 bowl eligible foes but they were 5-2 ATS. They were the only CUSA team to defeat both TCU and Louisville who are both going to bigger bowls. Four of their 5 SU losses to the bowl eligible teams were by a combined 17 points. They also almost defeated Ohio St but they dropped 4 straight passes in the endzone to end that game. UC was 5-1 ATS on the road in 2002 with 4 straight covers including their upset at Louisville which delivered a Thursday Night ESPN Play Winner.
The Bearcats come in with our #46 rated offense and our #43 rated D. The offense did struggle at times in 2002 but it is a very potent unit that had 4 layers on offense make either first or second team CUSA led by soph QB Gino Guidugli. Guidugli is avg 255 ypg (55%) with a 21-16 ratio. He struggled at midseason but in their final four Guidugli had 259 ypg (54%) and a super 10-3 ratio vs a much weaker slate of opposing defenses. In fact UC faced their weakest opposing defenses in three of their L/5 games. RB DeMarco McCleskey has 1276 yds (4.4) and 15 TD's on the ground. He is the CUSA's career TD leader. UC has the most talented WR corps in CUSA as WR LaDaris Vann has 70 rec (12.1) and has recorded at least 1 reception in 45 straight games, a UC record. WR Jon Olinger has great size at 6-3 225 and solid speed. He was the top deep threat with 20.1 ypc and 7 TD's and could create a big problem for the NT CB's who avg just 5-11 184. The UC OL paved the way for 3.5 ypc rush and allowed 24 sacks which are very average numbers. UC did gain 409 yds on a very tough TCU defense that held NT to just 219 yds. UC is 4 in TO ratio and avg 404 ypg total offense while their D allows 318 ypg. UC allowed 381 ypg in their first five but just 253 ypg total defense in their next 7 before allowing 458 yds to E Carolina in their finale. The DL allowed 200 ypg rush (3.9) in their L/2 games but had allowed just 66 ypg (2.1) in their previous 4 games. They will be facing a huge size deficit here as NT avg's 294 lbs per man on their OL with 3 senior starters while UC's DL also has 3 senior starters but avg's just 247lbs per man, and their top backup is just 205 lbs. DE Antwan Peek was the #1 tackler with 90 and also had 6.5 sacks and 15.5 tfl. The LB's accounted for nearly half of their 33 team sacks but their tackle counts were low, as UC blitzes a lot leaving their DB's in man coverage. Their experienced DB's are #18 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing just 184 ypg (52%) and a 12-16 ratio. CB Blue Adams led the team with 6 int's, two of which he returned for TD's and SS Doug Monaghan was the #2 tackler with 88 despite missing their finale due to injury.
When NT made the trip here LY all the talk was about how they were onlythe 3rd team in history to play in a bowl with a losing record. NT is 7-5 SU this year with 6 wins vs SBC foes. The Eagles were 0-5 SU and 3-2 ATS vs non-conf teams but all 3 wins were as DD dogs at the start of the year. They did cover against Texas losing 27-0 as a 35 pt AD. Last year they made the trip to NO but forgot to show up for the game as they were crushed 45-20 by Colo St as an 11 pt dog. Of all the bowl teams LY, they returned the most starters with 19, so this team does have bowl experience. NT is a team known for their defense but has seen their offense come to life scoring 30 pts in 3 of their final 4 games. The offense, which lost starting QB Scott Hall after the 1st game, struggled under rFr QB Andrew Smith. Smith did have 206 yds in the season finale at Middle Tenn. He is avg just 90 ypg (47%) with a 7-8 ratio. RB Kevin Galbreath had 1168 yds (4.8) but most of it came late vs SBC foes with 792 in the last 6 games. #2 TB Patrick Cobbs (PS#108) has 732 yds (4.7). The defense is led by the SBC Player of the Year, DL Brandon Kennedy. Kennedy led the SBC with 24 tfl and had 9 sks. He and 5 other defenders were voted to the 1st Tm SBC, while 3 others made the 2nd Tm. They have our #36 defense which allowed 14.4 ppg with 43 sks. The Eagles gave up 28 or more points just once (vs Alabama).They held TCU, a team that avg 31 ppg, to their lowest output of the year (16). They shutout an Idaho offense that had avg'd 21 ppg in 3 games vs the Pac 10 this year. The Eagles' defense allows 122 ypg on the ground and 167ypg through the air (#44 pass D rankings). Surprisingly despite 25 takeaways by their aggressive defense, the Eagles are just 1 in TO's, due to the inexperience of their freshman QB. NT comes in with our #61 rated special teams unit led by 2nd Tm SBC P Brad Kadlubar. He is avg 42.3 ypp, with 24 punts inside the 20 with only 9 TB's and 1 blocked. The Eagles' leading KR & PR is soph WR Ja'Mel Branch who is avg just 18.7 yds on KR's and 7.8 yds on PR's. True frosh K Nick Bazaldua is 22 of 28 on XP and 9 of 14 on FG with a long of 44 but has had 2 kicks blocked. The special teams defense allows just 18.3 yds on KR's but 11.3 yds on PR's. UC is rated #102 as they allow 22.6 yds per KR and 11.5 yds per PR. True frosh P Chet Ervin is avg 37.7 ypp with a net of just 30.8. He has had 2 blocked while UC has blocked one. Former Lou Groza Award Winner Jonathan Ruffin was a solid 17-20, including 3 of 5 from 40 with a long of 49. KR Tedric Harwell emerged down the stretch with 23.9 yds per KR while PR Tye Keith is avg 8.2. NT only rates a slight edge here as their opponents were weaker and UC has the edge in FG's which are not accounted for in our overall rankings.
NT may have a winning record but they have been outgained by 10 ypg this year while UC has outgained their foes by 91 ypg. NT has the stronger record but 6 wins came vs weak SBC foes. UC has the edge of having just played 11 days ago so they should show no rust while NT has been off almost 2 weeks longer than UC. Teams with less than 20 days between their lastgame and their bowl are 7-2-1 ATS. Teams that lost in the same bowl the previous year were 5-2 ATS in that bowl the next year from 1996-2000 but were just 1-4 ATS last year. There has been no number posted on this game as of yet but we will call for the Bearcats to win by 10 and let the linesmaker decide who we like.
FORECAST: Cincinnati 27 N Texas 17 RATING: NO PLAY
GMAC BOWL : December 18th @ 8pm ET on ESPN2
Louisville (7-5) At Mobile, AL Marshall (10-2)
POWER PLAYS PROJECTION
RUSH PASS POINTS TO's SP TEAMS A.O.R.
Louisville 115---210---27---2.5--89.4
Marshall 70---330---29---2.1----80.6
Tuesday, December 10, 2002
For the 2nd straight year the GMAC Bowl has tried to set up a future NFL QB duel. Last year QB Byron Leftwich outlasted ECU's David Garrard (now a Jacksonville Jaguar) in the highest scoring bowl ever, 64-61 in 2 OT's. Another QB battle will likely take place here. These teams have had just one recent meeting and that came in the 1998 Motor City Bowl with Marshall revailing 48-29 as a 3 pt dog. It is disappointing for the Cards to be here as they were touted as a dark horse National Titlecontender with a Heisman hopeful at QB prior to the season. The Cards have played their last 2 in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, however, and their players are excited about the opportunity to play here because they have 13 players from Alabama. Their fan following should remain strong as they have taken 55,000 fans over the last 2 years to the Liberty Bowl. HC John L. Smith is 1-4 SU & ATS in his career in bowls. He has turned UL into a perennial power in CUSA and this is their 5th bowl in the 5 years since he took over. UL had only played in 5 bowls in their history prior to Smith taking over. This will be the third bowl game for both of these experienced senior QB's and Dave Ragone is 1-1 both SU & ATS while Leftwich is 2-0 SU & ATS with both of his victories coming vs CUSA foes. UL did not fare well vs tougher foes in 2002 as they were just 2-4 both SU & ATS vs bowl caliber teams (including KY) while posting 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark vs foes with losing records. They lost by a 27-24 margin vs bowl eligible foes. UL does have a surface edge as the Herd are just 2-7 ATS their last 9 on grass. Both teams have 10 senior starters. The Cards are 13-8 ATS in their last 21 as a favorite. Marshall is 1-6 ATS as a dog since 2000 in the regular season, but are 3-1 ATS as a bowl dog the last 5 years. Marshall is also coming off an emotional victory in the MAC Championship game "taking the ring back" from Toledo who beat them last year. Louisville is coming off a disappointing loss to Houston, which cost them a share of the CUSA Title.
Louisville comes in with our #84 rated offense and our #41 rated D. QB Ragone is avg 224 ypg (55%) with a solid 23-10 ratio. He was the CUSA Offensive POY for an unprecedented 3rd straight year. Ragone is very crafty and also had 521 gross rush yds as he is not afraid to take a hit at 6-4, 255. RB Henry Miller is the top rusher with 595 yds (4.3) and 12 TD's. He was injured down the stretch and avg'd just 14 ypg in their last 3 but should be 100% for this game. WR Damien Dorsey was the top receiving threat with 52 grabs (14.5). He was 1st Tm CUSA at WR and as a PR. TE Ronnie Ghent was Ragone's favorite target prior to being injured in their 6th game and there is a chance he may return here. Despite missing the last 6 games Ghent was a 1st Tm CUSA selection giving UL that honor at the TE position for the 6th straight year. The OL battled injuries and inexperience all year allowing 43sacks while paving the way for just 3.1 ypc. Versus their six bowl eligible foes they allowed 27 of those 43 sacks and paved the way for just 1.6 ypc. Four of those opponents, however, have Top 45defenses while Marshall's just #79. The Cards' defense is a very solid unit that was very consistent in 2002. DB Curry Burns and LB Rod Day each topped 100 tackles and both were 2nd Tm CUSA. DE Dewayne White was named to the 1st Tm CUSA defense and led the team with 9.5 sacks while the other DE, Devon Thomas, added 7 sacks. The Cards front four allowed just 114 ypg rushing (2.8) while the team recorded 33 sacks. Their DB's are #34 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing 203 ypg (48%) but with a 17-8 ratio. In 2000-2001 the Cards had an NCAA best 96 sacks and their 44 interceptions were #2 in the NCAA over that span. They were 11 TO's in 2000 and 14 in 2001. This year they are -13 in TO ratio but the defense forced 7 TO's in their last 3 games after forcing just 8 in their first 9. The Cards avg'd 339 ypg total offense in 2002 while their D surrendered 318 ypg. As mentioned, the offense struggled vs tougher opponents and interestingly they had an avg yardage edge of 412-293 vs the weaker opponents while the bowl caliber teams outgained them 342-267.
This is Marshall's 6th straight bowl. They have gone every year since moving back to the IA level in '97. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and the only loss was in their 1st bowl back in '97, so they have won 4 straight including 3 wins against current CUSA teams in those bowls. They also have won Their only regular season game against a current CUSA team, defeating Army 35-25 as a 5 pt AD in '97.Marshall comes in with our #18 rated offense and our #79 rated defense. The Herd offense is led by Leftwich who was a Heisman candidate and will probably be a 1st Round DC next year. He is avg 365 ypg (a super 69%) with a solid 26-9 ratio. He has five 400 yd games including 404 yds in the MAC Championship game vs Toledo. He sat down in the 2H of a lot of games this year or his numbers would be even higher. He has been slowed with a leg injury, but missed only one game and one other start Because of it. In the last few games he has been hobbled and operated from the shotgun all game. He led the comeback victory against Toledo throwing the game winner with :40 left to win 49-45 as a 4 pt HF. He was voted the MAC MVP for the 2nd year in a row. He has 3 main receivers, each with over 850 yds receiving. They are Denero Marriott with 76 rec (11.3), Josh Davis with 73 rec (16.0) and Darius Watts with 68 rec (14.7). Marshall's running game has been up and down all year. They avg 128 ypg, but in their two games vs bowl teams this year they avg'd just 40 ypg. The running game hasbeen mostly split between 2 RB's: Brandon Carey has 642 yds (4.6) with two 100 yd games and Franklin Wallace has 539 yds (4.7) also with two 100 yd games. The Herd's offensive line has also played very well this year giving up just 18 sacks on 531 pass attempts. Marshall's defense has improved as the year has gone on. They have done very well vs the pass giving up just 158ypg and only allowing 48% completions. The Herd's weakness however has been against the run where they have allowed 182 ypg (4.4).
The Cards rate a MASSIVE edge on special teams at #4 in our ratings while Marshall is back at #81. In 2002 the Cards have blocked an NCAA best 11kicks in 12 games including 9 punts. KR Broderick Clark was honored as the CUSA Special Teams POY avg an NCAA best 31.8 yds per KR. Clark matched the school and league marks with a pair of return TD's, including a CUSA record 100 yd return vs Kentucky. PR Damien Dorsey was 1st Tm CUSA and was #9 in the NCAA with 15.4 yds per PR including a TD. K Nate Smith was 12 of 19 on FG's with a long of 52, however he was just 4 of 9 from 40 . Smith also doubled as the P after replacing Wade Tydlacka and avg'd 36.5 yds per boot while dropping 16 inside the 20. Tydlacka still handles the KO's and UL is allowing a solid 19.2 yds per KR. The Cards avg'd just 32.1 net yds per punt but that number actually improved down the stretch when Smith was inserted as the P and they reverted to the old school rugby style of punting, virtually eliminating the chance of a big return. Marshall's Curtis Head handles both the kicking and the punting. He hit 15 of 20 FG's with a long of 53, but was just 5 of 9 from 40 and 44 of 48 on XP's. Head is avg 41.9 ypp with 11 inside the 20 and only 1 TB. The MU kick coverage teams are giving up only 19 yds per KR but 14.2 per PR. The Herd has just 1 punt block and gave up 1 PR for a TD. The return team is avg only 15.9 yds on KR's and a poor 5.2 yds on PR's.
Marshall has less time off since their last game was played on Dec 7th and UL played last on Nov 30th. MU also has the edge of being familiar with the bowl having played here last year. They also have done better in bowl games as it is their chance in the national spotlight and L'ville has to be disappointed to end up here after starting off the year with much higher hopes. Marshall has the edge on offense with the much stronger O-line but the Cards have the defensive edge as well as the special teams edge. UL has not played well vs bowl caliber teams this year while Marshall's D has gotten stronger down the stretch. This is an important game for Marshalls program and the MAC has done very well in recent bowls and we side with the motivated Herd who have the intangibles on their side as long as they are a dog (line not known at presstime).
FORECAST: Marshall 31 Louisville 30 RATING: 2H MARSHALL (if dog)
SUMMARY OF PLAYS
NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* ST LOUIS over Arizona
3* BUFFALO over San Diego
2* ATLANTA over Seattle
2* PITTSBURGH over Carolina
NCAA SELECTIONS
DETAILED ANALYSIS
4* ST LOUIS over Arizona - The Rams took the first meeting between these teams 27-14 as a 3 pt AF which was a 4* Late hone Play Winner. QB Marc Bulger led the Rams to a 23-13 FD edge & the Rams outgained the Cardinals 415-235 in Arizona. The Rams, for all their past glory are only 2-8 ATS in prime time games since 1999 but this was due to the act teams were getting up to play one of the NFLs top teams not the Current 5-8 unit. Last week KC got up big on St Louis via an 88 yd kickoff ret, a 42 yd fumble ret & an 86 yd PR all for TDs to lead 35-10 at the half as QB Martin had 111 yds passing for the Rams while KCs Green only had 34 yds. Because of the score RB Faulk saw little 2H action & he should be healthier for this game. The Cardinals have enough players on injured reserve to field a complete special teams unit. They got a huge load off of their back last week with their win over the Lions snapping a 6 game losing streak & have nothing to play for here. Arizona comes in with the NFLs #28 offense & #30 defense taking on a much more talented Rams team that has Top 10 units on both sides of the ball (#10 offense & #7 defense). We see St Louis winning big at home here. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 31 Arizona 6
3* BUFFALO over San Diego - These teams met last year with different starting QBs as the Chargers lost 27-24 as 7 pt HFs. Buffalo finished with 22-17 FD & 396-338 yd edges as a blocked Charger FG at the end of regulation was the difference. The Chargers do not travel well as they are 3-13 SU & 5-10-1 ATS on the road vs teams in the Eastern time zone. Theyre however 8-2-1 ATS on turf since 1999. The Chargers are an overrated teamTY even though Marty Schottenheimer has done a good job of turning this team around in his first year here. They have the #19 rated offense & the defense is only at #27 for the year. Two weeks ago the Bills hosted a similarly styled warm weather team in the Dolphins in cold weather & outFDd them 21-14 & outgained them 431-300 with a 38-21 score. Last week the Chargers played a tough game vs the Raiders & have a road game vs theChiefs next week. With the Bills having lost LW we gain line value here. We side with the home team. FORECAST: BUFFALO 27 San Diego 14
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* ATLANTA over Seattle - In the last meeting Seattle beat the Falcons 30-10 as a 1 pt AF in 2000. The Falcons are coming off a long 3 game road trip & have a home game vs Detroit & a road game vs Cleveland up next. The Falcons are 11-4 ATS as a HF vs NFC teams. Defensively the Falcons rank #18 overall & TY have been allowing 97 ypg rushing (4.1) at home. The Seahawks defense has had its share of problems with injuries TY & lost DE Lamar King for the year in practice LW & his replacement Anton Palepoi had to leave the field in the last game due to an ankle injury. They are currently ranked #28 overall & are allowing 148 ypg rushing (4.2) on the road. Offensively they have at first glance a respectable #14 offense for the year but they have been getting a lot of garbage yds late in games the last 2 weeks such as when the 49ers went up 27-10 & the Eagles went up 27-6 & up off on them. Atlanta is off a loss to the Bucs in which Michael Vick was summarily shut down & he will want to make amends & at home is a good lace to do it. Seattle is in a tough spot here having just played San Fran & Philadelphia then travelling cross country to face the Falcons in a now hostile venue. FORECAST: ATLANTA 34 Seattle 17
2* PITTSBURGH over Carolina - The last time these teams met was in December of 1999 when the Steelers won 30-20 as 3pt HDs. LW Tommy Maddox returned for the Steelers & he threw for 325 yds (53%) with a 0-2 ratio with both ints being returned for TDs as well as a fumble. Pittsburgh is 2-7-1 ATS hosting NFC teams. The Panthers are 2-5 ATS as an AD of 7 or more vs AFC teams. LWs offensive display of 52 pts for the Panthers accounts for 25% of their 210 pts for the year. Carolina as an AD of 6 or more is 20-11-1 ATS since its inception. The Steelers outside of division play have 22-18 FD & 389-323 yd edges but have been outscored 27-22 on avg & are 1-6-1 ATS.The Panthers hold a 17-16 FD edge & have a surprising 317-272 yd edge with an avg score of 21-14 7 are 7-1 ATS in non-div play TY. The Steelers currently possess a half game lead over the Browns in the NFC North & have a Monday road game vs the Bucs up next. Cowher & Co should be in a surly jaw jutting mood here & they are taking on a Carolina team that was shut out by Atlanta, only had 234 yds of offense vs Cleveland & while they did gain 401 yds LW it was vs Cincy & they did have a 2 yd fumble ret, 61 & 87 yd punt returns for TDs which helped make things look worse than they really were. At the same time Pittsburgh did lose 24-6 but 21 of Houstons points were defensive returns for TDs. The Steelers actually outgained the Texans 422-47 & Houston only had THREE FIRST DOWNS & yet still scrambled out with the win. Pittsburgh takes care of business. FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 27 Carolina 6
NCAA SELECTIONS
NEW ORLEANS BOWL : December 17th @8pm ET on ESPN2
Cincinnati (7-6) At New Orleans, LA N Texas (7-5)
POWER PLAYS PROJECTION
RUSH PASS POINTS TO's SP TEAMS A.O.R.
Cincinnati: 105---230---23---2.4-91.7
N Texas: 195-----30---14---3.1---86.8
Tuesday, December 10, 2002
North Texas is 0-4 SU & 2-2 ATS vs current CUSA teams since '98,but have won the L/2 ATS including earlier this year vs TCU, a 16-10 SU loss but ATS win as 12' pt AD's. Cincinnati beat that same TCU team in the season opener 36-26 as a 3' pt HF. The Bearcats are 2-0 SU & ATS vs current SBC teams since '98. These two teams played 16 straight years when both were members of the Missouri Valley Conference (last met 1973). NT leads the series 8-7-1 SU. The last meeting was a 52-3 blowout by UC. This will be the Bearcats' third straight bowl game which is a school record and they are 1-2 SU and ATS in the post season under HC Rick Minter. The Bearcats have been to the Motor City Bowl twice where they lost SU & ATS to MAC teams the last 2 years, and the Humanitarian Bowl where they defeated Utah St.UC is really fortunate to be here after a 2-5 SU start and their players and coaches have made that known. They have 13 senior starters compared to just 8 for NT. NT should however should have the home edge as they are here for the second straight year and their fans travelled very well last year to New Orleans. UC, on the other hand, had a very difficult time getting people to attend the Motor City Bowl which is much closer to home than this one.Each of their appearances in that game established a new low in attendance forthat bowl. UC also had just 10 days to sell tickets and Bowl packages to their fans which is the most compact time frame in the NCAA this year. The Bearcats were just 2-5 SU vs their 7 bowl eligible foes but they were 5-2 ATS. They were the only CUSA team to defeat both TCU and Louisville who are both going to bigger bowls. Four of their 5 SU losses to the bowl eligible teams were by a combined 17 points. They also almost defeated Ohio St but they dropped 4 straight passes in the endzone to end that game. UC was 5-1 ATS on the road in 2002 with 4 straight covers including their upset at Louisville which delivered a Thursday Night ESPN Play Winner.
The Bearcats come in with our #46 rated offense and our #43 rated D. The offense did struggle at times in 2002 but it is a very potent unit that had 4 layers on offense make either first or second team CUSA led by soph QB Gino Guidugli. Guidugli is avg 255 ypg (55%) with a 21-16 ratio. He struggled at midseason but in their final four Guidugli had 259 ypg (54%) and a super 10-3 ratio vs a much weaker slate of opposing defenses. In fact UC faced their weakest opposing defenses in three of their L/5 games. RB DeMarco McCleskey has 1276 yds (4.4) and 15 TD's on the ground. He is the CUSA's career TD leader. UC has the most talented WR corps in CUSA as WR LaDaris Vann has 70 rec (12.1) and has recorded at least 1 reception in 45 straight games, a UC record. WR Jon Olinger has great size at 6-3 225 and solid speed. He was the top deep threat with 20.1 ypc and 7 TD's and could create a big problem for the NT CB's who avg just 5-11 184. The UC OL paved the way for 3.5 ypc rush and allowed 24 sacks which are very average numbers. UC did gain 409 yds on a very tough TCU defense that held NT to just 219 yds. UC is 4 in TO ratio and avg 404 ypg total offense while their D allows 318 ypg. UC allowed 381 ypg in their first five but just 253 ypg total defense in their next 7 before allowing 458 yds to E Carolina in their finale. The DL allowed 200 ypg rush (3.9) in their L/2 games but had allowed just 66 ypg (2.1) in their previous 4 games. They will be facing a huge size deficit here as NT avg's 294 lbs per man on their OL with 3 senior starters while UC's DL also has 3 senior starters but avg's just 247lbs per man, and their top backup is just 205 lbs. DE Antwan Peek was the #1 tackler with 90 and also had 6.5 sacks and 15.5 tfl. The LB's accounted for nearly half of their 33 team sacks but their tackle counts were low, as UC blitzes a lot leaving their DB's in man coverage. Their experienced DB's are #18 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing just 184 ypg (52%) and a 12-16 ratio. CB Blue Adams led the team with 6 int's, two of which he returned for TD's and SS Doug Monaghan was the #2 tackler with 88 despite missing their finale due to injury.
When NT made the trip here LY all the talk was about how they were onlythe 3rd team in history to play in a bowl with a losing record. NT is 7-5 SU this year with 6 wins vs SBC foes. The Eagles were 0-5 SU and 3-2 ATS vs non-conf teams but all 3 wins were as DD dogs at the start of the year. They did cover against Texas losing 27-0 as a 35 pt AD. Last year they made the trip to NO but forgot to show up for the game as they were crushed 45-20 by Colo St as an 11 pt dog. Of all the bowl teams LY, they returned the most starters with 19, so this team does have bowl experience. NT is a team known for their defense but has seen their offense come to life scoring 30 pts in 3 of their final 4 games. The offense, which lost starting QB Scott Hall after the 1st game, struggled under rFr QB Andrew Smith. Smith did have 206 yds in the season finale at Middle Tenn. He is avg just 90 ypg (47%) with a 7-8 ratio. RB Kevin Galbreath had 1168 yds (4.8) but most of it came late vs SBC foes with 792 in the last 6 games. #2 TB Patrick Cobbs (PS#108) has 732 yds (4.7). The defense is led by the SBC Player of the Year, DL Brandon Kennedy. Kennedy led the SBC with 24 tfl and had 9 sks. He and 5 other defenders were voted to the 1st Tm SBC, while 3 others made the 2nd Tm. They have our #36 defense which allowed 14.4 ppg with 43 sks. The Eagles gave up 28 or more points just once (vs Alabama).They held TCU, a team that avg 31 ppg, to their lowest output of the year (16). They shutout an Idaho offense that had avg'd 21 ppg in 3 games vs the Pac 10 this year. The Eagles' defense allows 122 ypg on the ground and 167ypg through the air (#44 pass D rankings). Surprisingly despite 25 takeaways by their aggressive defense, the Eagles are just 1 in TO's, due to the inexperience of their freshman QB. NT comes in with our #61 rated special teams unit led by 2nd Tm SBC P Brad Kadlubar. He is avg 42.3 ypp, with 24 punts inside the 20 with only 9 TB's and 1 blocked. The Eagles' leading KR & PR is soph WR Ja'Mel Branch who is avg just 18.7 yds on KR's and 7.8 yds on PR's. True frosh K Nick Bazaldua is 22 of 28 on XP and 9 of 14 on FG with a long of 44 but has had 2 kicks blocked. The special teams defense allows just 18.3 yds on KR's but 11.3 yds on PR's. UC is rated #102 as they allow 22.6 yds per KR and 11.5 yds per PR. True frosh P Chet Ervin is avg 37.7 ypp with a net of just 30.8. He has had 2 blocked while UC has blocked one. Former Lou Groza Award Winner Jonathan Ruffin was a solid 17-20, including 3 of 5 from 40 with a long of 49. KR Tedric Harwell emerged down the stretch with 23.9 yds per KR while PR Tye Keith is avg 8.2. NT only rates a slight edge here as their opponents were weaker and UC has the edge in FG's which are not accounted for in our overall rankings.
NT may have a winning record but they have been outgained by 10 ypg this year while UC has outgained their foes by 91 ypg. NT has the stronger record but 6 wins came vs weak SBC foes. UC has the edge of having just played 11 days ago so they should show no rust while NT has been off almost 2 weeks longer than UC. Teams with less than 20 days between their lastgame and their bowl are 7-2-1 ATS. Teams that lost in the same bowl the previous year were 5-2 ATS in that bowl the next year from 1996-2000 but were just 1-4 ATS last year. There has been no number posted on this game as of yet but we will call for the Bearcats to win by 10 and let the linesmaker decide who we like.
FORECAST: Cincinnati 27 N Texas 17 RATING: NO PLAY
GMAC BOWL : December 18th @ 8pm ET on ESPN2
Louisville (7-5) At Mobile, AL Marshall (10-2)
POWER PLAYS PROJECTION
RUSH PASS POINTS TO's SP TEAMS A.O.R.
Louisville 115---210---27---2.5--89.4
Marshall 70---330---29---2.1----80.6
Tuesday, December 10, 2002
For the 2nd straight year the GMAC Bowl has tried to set up a future NFL QB duel. Last year QB Byron Leftwich outlasted ECU's David Garrard (now a Jacksonville Jaguar) in the highest scoring bowl ever, 64-61 in 2 OT's. Another QB battle will likely take place here. These teams have had just one recent meeting and that came in the 1998 Motor City Bowl with Marshall revailing 48-29 as a 3 pt dog. It is disappointing for the Cards to be here as they were touted as a dark horse National Titlecontender with a Heisman hopeful at QB prior to the season. The Cards have played their last 2 in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, however, and their players are excited about the opportunity to play here because they have 13 players from Alabama. Their fan following should remain strong as they have taken 55,000 fans over the last 2 years to the Liberty Bowl. HC John L. Smith is 1-4 SU & ATS in his career in bowls. He has turned UL into a perennial power in CUSA and this is their 5th bowl in the 5 years since he took over. UL had only played in 5 bowls in their history prior to Smith taking over. This will be the third bowl game for both of these experienced senior QB's and Dave Ragone is 1-1 both SU & ATS while Leftwich is 2-0 SU & ATS with both of his victories coming vs CUSA foes. UL did not fare well vs tougher foes in 2002 as they were just 2-4 both SU & ATS vs bowl caliber teams (including KY) while posting 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS mark vs foes with losing records. They lost by a 27-24 margin vs bowl eligible foes. UL does have a surface edge as the Herd are just 2-7 ATS their last 9 on grass. Both teams have 10 senior starters. The Cards are 13-8 ATS in their last 21 as a favorite. Marshall is 1-6 ATS as a dog since 2000 in the regular season, but are 3-1 ATS as a bowl dog the last 5 years. Marshall is also coming off an emotional victory in the MAC Championship game "taking the ring back" from Toledo who beat them last year. Louisville is coming off a disappointing loss to Houston, which cost them a share of the CUSA Title.
Louisville comes in with our #84 rated offense and our #41 rated D. QB Ragone is avg 224 ypg (55%) with a solid 23-10 ratio. He was the CUSA Offensive POY for an unprecedented 3rd straight year. Ragone is very crafty and also had 521 gross rush yds as he is not afraid to take a hit at 6-4, 255. RB Henry Miller is the top rusher with 595 yds (4.3) and 12 TD's. He was injured down the stretch and avg'd just 14 ypg in their last 3 but should be 100% for this game. WR Damien Dorsey was the top receiving threat with 52 grabs (14.5). He was 1st Tm CUSA at WR and as a PR. TE Ronnie Ghent was Ragone's favorite target prior to being injured in their 6th game and there is a chance he may return here. Despite missing the last 6 games Ghent was a 1st Tm CUSA selection giving UL that honor at the TE position for the 6th straight year. The OL battled injuries and inexperience all year allowing 43sacks while paving the way for just 3.1 ypc. Versus their six bowl eligible foes they allowed 27 of those 43 sacks and paved the way for just 1.6 ypc. Four of those opponents, however, have Top 45defenses while Marshall's just #79. The Cards' defense is a very solid unit that was very consistent in 2002. DB Curry Burns and LB Rod Day each topped 100 tackles and both were 2nd Tm CUSA. DE Dewayne White was named to the 1st Tm CUSA defense and led the team with 9.5 sacks while the other DE, Devon Thomas, added 7 sacks. The Cards front four allowed just 114 ypg rushing (2.8) while the team recorded 33 sacks. Their DB's are #34 in our pass efficiency D ratings allowing 203 ypg (48%) but with a 17-8 ratio. In 2000-2001 the Cards had an NCAA best 96 sacks and their 44 interceptions were #2 in the NCAA over that span. They were 11 TO's in 2000 and 14 in 2001. This year they are -13 in TO ratio but the defense forced 7 TO's in their last 3 games after forcing just 8 in their first 9. The Cards avg'd 339 ypg total offense in 2002 while their D surrendered 318 ypg. As mentioned, the offense struggled vs tougher opponents and interestingly they had an avg yardage edge of 412-293 vs the weaker opponents while the bowl caliber teams outgained them 342-267.
This is Marshall's 6th straight bowl. They have gone every year since moving back to the IA level in '97. They are 4-1 SU & ATS and the only loss was in their 1st bowl back in '97, so they have won 4 straight including 3 wins against current CUSA teams in those bowls. They also have won Their only regular season game against a current CUSA team, defeating Army 35-25 as a 5 pt AD in '97.Marshall comes in with our #18 rated offense and our #79 rated defense. The Herd offense is led by Leftwich who was a Heisman candidate and will probably be a 1st Round DC next year. He is avg 365 ypg (a super 69%) with a solid 26-9 ratio. He has five 400 yd games including 404 yds in the MAC Championship game vs Toledo. He sat down in the 2H of a lot of games this year or his numbers would be even higher. He has been slowed with a leg injury, but missed only one game and one other start Because of it. In the last few games he has been hobbled and operated from the shotgun all game. He led the comeback victory against Toledo throwing the game winner with :40 left to win 49-45 as a 4 pt HF. He was voted the MAC MVP for the 2nd year in a row. He has 3 main receivers, each with over 850 yds receiving. They are Denero Marriott with 76 rec (11.3), Josh Davis with 73 rec (16.0) and Darius Watts with 68 rec (14.7). Marshall's running game has been up and down all year. They avg 128 ypg, but in their two games vs bowl teams this year they avg'd just 40 ypg. The running game hasbeen mostly split between 2 RB's: Brandon Carey has 642 yds (4.6) with two 100 yd games and Franklin Wallace has 539 yds (4.7) also with two 100 yd games. The Herd's offensive line has also played very well this year giving up just 18 sacks on 531 pass attempts. Marshall's defense has improved as the year has gone on. They have done very well vs the pass giving up just 158ypg and only allowing 48% completions. The Herd's weakness however has been against the run where they have allowed 182 ypg (4.4).
The Cards rate a MASSIVE edge on special teams at #4 in our ratings while Marshall is back at #81. In 2002 the Cards have blocked an NCAA best 11kicks in 12 games including 9 punts. KR Broderick Clark was honored as the CUSA Special Teams POY avg an NCAA best 31.8 yds per KR. Clark matched the school and league marks with a pair of return TD's, including a CUSA record 100 yd return vs Kentucky. PR Damien Dorsey was 1st Tm CUSA and was #9 in the NCAA with 15.4 yds per PR including a TD. K Nate Smith was 12 of 19 on FG's with a long of 52, however he was just 4 of 9 from 40 . Smith also doubled as the P after replacing Wade Tydlacka and avg'd 36.5 yds per boot while dropping 16 inside the 20. Tydlacka still handles the KO's and UL is allowing a solid 19.2 yds per KR. The Cards avg'd just 32.1 net yds per punt but that number actually improved down the stretch when Smith was inserted as the P and they reverted to the old school rugby style of punting, virtually eliminating the chance of a big return. Marshall's Curtis Head handles both the kicking and the punting. He hit 15 of 20 FG's with a long of 53, but was just 5 of 9 from 40 and 44 of 48 on XP's. Head is avg 41.9 ypp with 11 inside the 20 and only 1 TB. The MU kick coverage teams are giving up only 19 yds per KR but 14.2 per PR. The Herd has just 1 punt block and gave up 1 PR for a TD. The return team is avg only 15.9 yds on KR's and a poor 5.2 yds on PR's.
Marshall has less time off since their last game was played on Dec 7th and UL played last on Nov 30th. MU also has the edge of being familiar with the bowl having played here last year. They also have done better in bowl games as it is their chance in the national spotlight and L'ville has to be disappointed to end up here after starting off the year with much higher hopes. Marshall has the edge on offense with the much stronger O-line but the Cards have the defensive edge as well as the special teams edge. UL has not played well vs bowl caliber teams this year while Marshall's D has gotten stronger down the stretch. This is an important game for Marshalls program and the MAC has done very well in recent bowls and we side with the motivated Herd who have the intangibles on their side as long as they are a dog (line not known at presstime).
FORECAST: Marshall 31 Louisville 30 RATING: 2H MARSHALL (if dog)
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