would you hedge a fantasy win with a player prop?

[drugstuntman]

Hoping for some feedback from anybody on this Xmas quandry:

I have a fantasy league championship today where I am 17 points beind, but with Jeff Garcia still left to play. Scoring is 1 point for 30 pass yards, and 6 for td's. The payout is $700 winner/$200 loser, so there is a $500 swing on 1 player.

Now, do I play a prop of Garcia under 1.5 td's (-115) figuring if he gets 2 td's - I have a pretty good shot at a win with just 180+ yards passing? Or does that leave too much gap to lose both sides? Can I outsmart myself, or is it a good option?

[Pitt37]

I would hedge it for if he throws only one td you win your prop but could still win league if he has alot of yardage or runs one in and if he throws two TD's or more you win your league.

[drugstuntman]

thanks pitt - I am leaning that way but the wildcard here is going to be turnovers...those are -2 and a few of them could spell disaster - just like in the real games

[Pitt37]

I see....I think I would subtract what I paid to get into the league from the 200 (what you get if you finish second) and bet the rest on under so that way worse case you break even and best case you win both depends on what your feeling

[vondie]

Tough one....never good to be in a spot where you can lose both. I would just leave it be and cheer for jeffy, GL

[drugstuntman]

wow - that was painful...I decided to let it ride, and the prop would have been a winner....to make it worse - I lose the game by 2 points (thanks to his INT) D'OH!

[vondie]

wow - that was painful...I decided to let it ride, and the prop would have been a winner....to make it worse - I lose the game by 2 points (thanks to his INT) D'OH!

ouch, I missed out on 2nd place because of steve smith's 15 yard reverse at the end of the eagles game. That one point broke the tie, and left me out of the playoffs, in which i would have won 2 games and lost the championship. cost me 300 bucks.

[drugstuntman]

ouch, I missed out on 2nd place because of steve smith's 15 yard reverse at the end of the eagles game. That one point broke the tie, and left me out of the playoffs, in which i would have won 2 games and lost the championship. cost me 300 bucks.

damn vondie....it's amazing how an entire year's worth of decisions and games can come down to 1 play and/or one point...I have to keep reminding myself this is supposed to be fun !!!!!

[jcindaville]

wow - that was painful...I decided to let it ride, and the prop would have been a winner....to make it worse - I lose the game by 2 points (thanks to his INT) D'OH!

thats brutal, sorry to hear that