opinion wanted

[savage1]

As most of you know, I myself don't post too many plays, as frankly I don't consider myself a great capper, and instead rely on you guys.
That being said, I would like an opinion for those who are good and post here every day(ez, wayne, sports tipster, pick jockey, memphis mafia, goldvike,poboy etc.-sorry if I forgot to mention anyone, but you know who you are) on a game tonight.
I would like to know if anyone thinks Cubs are a good play tonight;to me the timing seems real good;they are playing well and just swept SD, whereas LA did sweep Reds, but I am just not that impressed.
I was thinking of making a sizeable play tonight on Cubs, but want feedback before I do it.
I realize neither Estes not Ashby is anything to write home about, but I think Ashby is worse and that Cubs should hit him.
All informed opinions are welcome.

[MemphisMafia]

savage 1

Best advise I can give you is " not take mine " , but because you are a Redsox fan , I will tender a bit of info ?

At this moment the L.A. club is a -134 fav. o/u at 7.5

Now the way I look at things is quite different than most cappers , I am a numbers lady so trends do pull a little mojo with me but not to much .

Heres my breakdown ;

Cubs - hit a wee-bit better on the road .255 home vs. .266 away , run production is about the same 249 vs 251 , that being said lets look at the " lack " of pitching in this duel. One thing that jumps out at me is the Cubs ability to hit righties vs. lefties and it does jump ! They hit .286 vs. lefties [ not bad ] but when faced with a rightie they drop a far bit to .252 [ bad ] and they do face a rightie !

L.A. - on the other hand is just the opposite here , .232 vs righties vs. .263 vs. lefties [Estes is a leftie ] , that is a full 60 point swing in thier batting avgs. , and that throws up a flag in my camp , and taking into consideration that I feel that the pens will figure in this one a great deal , my lean here is the L.A. club.

I hope I didnt pull you from a wager , as this was not intended to do so but I personally would not take the Cubs here ?

As always , you are a very respected member of the board and deserve opinions when asked for and I do wish you a great deal of good luck in what ever your choice is !

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

p.s. thanks for noticing my humble opinion !

[savage1]

Memphis-thanks for your opinion. I think I may just wait for your picks today, as you are on a roll.

[savage1]

Memphis-one of the reasons I did like Cubs is that I believe they have had good luck against the west this year;correct me if I am wrong;I admit it is more of an intuitive play than anything else.

[TheSportsGuru]

Cubbies are a good play today...

Hi Savage1,

Ashby has been brutal at home, Sosa has a .500 career batting avg. against him, and I also like the fact the Cubs are really trying to make a run here to win the NL Central and have some solid momentum right now.

In my opinion this is a great spot to take the Cubbies at plus odds.

Hope this helps,
TheSportsGuru

[PICKjockey]

Savage...

I am in agreement with Memphis here. The Cubs , in my humble opinion, are not worth meriting a "strong play" tonight. I know that they have faired well against the west this year and that they are winners of 8 of the last 11 games, but... the Dodgers are a very comfortable team at home and are doing just enough to win games. They have a new belief in their offense since replacing hitting coach Jack Clark with George Henderick and even though their run production isn't way up their hits per game is. I would be very cautious if indeed playing the cubs here, I don't believe that Estes is that much better than Ashby and would proceed with caution. Hope this helps!!!

--PICKjockey

[savage1]

Sports Guru and Pick Jockey-thanks for opinions.
Both are great and helpful to me in this matter.
I thought in addition to what I said that Cubs might have a little more motivation at this point, as it would appear that only road to playoff is winning division.

[ez winners]

Savage1,

I would only lean towards the Cubs here. The numbers favor Chicago: The road team is 5-1 in the last six meetings, the Cubs are rolling at 8-2 in their last 10 overall and LA is 2-8 when Ashby is on the mound. But, I could not make this a strong play with Estes pitching on the road, the home field factor makes this a coin toss.

Good luck,
John

[meaiken]

I think the Over is a better play here, but the cubs aren't a bad play. I would take the cubs or not play the game at all.

This will be a hitters duel and it is going to come down to which pitcher gives up less be4 being pinch hit for.

The cubs own an identicle record on the road as the dodgers do at home.

Ashby (2-9) is diffently the weaker of the 2 pitchers, he's lost his last 3 starts and owns a 1-3 record at home on a team that has to rely on pitching. Estes (7-8) is the veteren on a young pitching staff that has both great pitching and a better hitting team. Estes is also 4-3 on the road.

The only thing I don't like is that Estes is 3-7 vs the dodgers and Ashby is 8-2 vs the cubs, but this is a whole new year.

Maphia were did u get those numbers? The numbers I have is the cubs bat a .255 vs righty's and the dodgers .257 vs lefties.

[MemphisMafia]

savage 1

It is in my humble opinion that no one needs to be decieved by thier [ Cubs ] recent roll over the Pads , take into consideration that they faced the meat of the Cubs rotation [ Prior 3-hitter , Wood 5-hitter , and Zambrano ] and also thier paltry 255 BA is not jack the giant killer .

Like I said , and others seem to agree with me here [ by thier statements ] that the one overwhelming factor to me is that " toss out these pitchers " and you face the bull-pens ? NOW who do you like ? And I do think they " BOTH " go early here.

meaiken , my source is the M.L.B. site [ as of yesterday ] and we only seem to be off a fraction anyway . And there will be no raking of this woman , not on your life !

As always G.L.




***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[savage1]

Memphis-what you said is true, but I believe Cubs have fared well against SF and Arizona also.(held their own at least).

[MemphisMafia]

recent games

july 22 - 8 to 4 lost to atl away
" 23 - 3 to 0 lost to philly home
" 24 - 14 to 6 lost to philly home
" 25 - 5 to 3 over astros away
" 26 - 3 to 0 lost to astros away
" 27 - 5 to 3 over astros away
" 28 - open
" 29 - 3 to 0 over san fran home
" 30 - 6 to 3 lost to san fran home
" 31 - 9 to 4 over san fran home
aug. 1 - 4 to 3 over ari. home
" 2 - 4 to 3 lost ari home
" 3 - 2 to 1 over ari home
" 4 open
" 5 - 3 to 0 over s.d. away
" 6 - 3 to 2 over s.d. away
" 7 - 9 to 3 over s.d. away

hope this helps big guy ?

G.L.

***MMM***

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[meaiken]

maphia not trying to rake u, but just trying to see were u get your stats, i got mine from sports.com and there was a huge difference on something, that seems to be fixed now anyway.

If u through out the starters, that would give edge to the dodgers. You are right, the starters will be out early, like i also said....

OVER 7.5 is the play here....


and the Padres, Peavy has been pitching pretty good as of late.

[GoldVike]

SAVAGE

See the Tipsters Thread......I repied on that as to not duplicate reams of typing......Dodgers.....BEST OF LUCK ON WHICHEVER WAY YOU PICK!! Goldv

[savage1]

Godlvike-Thanks. I saw that. If I do anything with game, it will be small.
Sorry I meant goldvike;keep picking em right and you will be godlvike or godlike.