theory

[robby_morini]

Wednesday December 26, 2006

1st half side and total:

FSU + 1.5 (Loss)
Under 19 (Loss)

Bowls YTD:

First half dogs: 3-6 ($360)
First half under: 5-4 $60

Oh well, on the chalk board the system looked better. I will continue this until the end of bowl season.

Just a brief summary of the thought process:

1. Side theory: Give any team long enough to prepare for another, they should be ables to stay close in the first half. In the long run, superior talent should win out

2. Total theory: Teams will start out on conservative note (especially in the first quarter) in an effort to get a feel for the other team.

[frankb03]

2. Total theory: Teams will start out on conservative note (especially in the first quarter) in an effort to get a feel for the other team.

Also, since teams haven't played in 4 or more weeks offensively they are probably out of sync.

[robby_morini]

2005 Data

I went back and checked the 05-06 Bowl games and applied the first half theory. What I found was pretty interesting. Since 1st half lines weren't available I took the ending game line and divided it by 2. In the case of an odd ending line (3, 5, 7, etc), I rounded up by 1/2 point. Books typically will add at least 1/2 point on first half lines. Lines were found at Jim Heistdot.

Bowl games from December 20-December 28 2005

1st half dogs: Won 4, Lost 6
1st half under: Won 5, Lost 5

Bowl games from December 29-December 31, 2005

1st half dogs: Won 4, Lost 5
1st half under: Won 2 Lost 5, push 2


Here is where it got interesting:

Bowl games played on January 1st and after:

1st half dogs: Won 7, Lost 1*
1st half under: Won 4, Lost 3, Push 1

The only loss came with Iowa being a 1/2 point favorite for the first half. The game line was Iowa-1 so the line may have been a pick for the first half, but for record keeping I counted it as a loss.

What does all of this mean? Probably nothing, but after this year, I will have 2 years of info to start tracking. As I said earlier, I expect the bigger bowl games to come through.

[Spearit]

Here is where it got interesting:

Bowl games played on January 1st and after:

1st half dogs: Won 7, Lost 1*
1st half under: Won 4, Lost 3, Push 1

The only loss came with Iowa being a 1/2 point favorite for the first half. The game line was Iowa-1 so the line may have been a pick for the first half, but for record keeping I counted it as a loss.

What does all of this mean? Probably nothing, but after this year, I will have 2 years of info to start tracking. As I said earlier, I expect the bigger bowl games to come through.

Nice info!

[tash]

good info...thanks for posting!

[Coach_G]

Intersting thread. Will check out the results

[robby_morini]

Thursday December 28, 2006

First half side and total:


Alabama + 1/2 Loss
Under 24: Loss

Kansas State + 5 Loss
Under 23: Loss

A&M: + 1 1/2 Loss
Under 27: Win

Bowl YTD:

1st half dog: 3-9 ($690)
1st half total: 6-6 ($ 60)



Just wait til next year

[robby_morini]

Friday December 29, 2006

Kentucky +6 Win
Under 28 Win

Missouri + 1 1/2 Win
Total 27 Loss

Houston + 3 Win
Under 28 Loss

Purdue +1/2 Win
Under 28 Push

Minnesota + 4 1/2 Win
Under 31 Loss


Todays first half dogs were 5-0, with the unders 1-3-1.

1st half dogs YTD are now 8-9 for a total of ($190)
1st half unders have slipped to 7-9 for a total
($290)

Now the important info: Even if you toss the Purdue 1/2 point win, the side trend is very positive

I think it will be worth watching over the next couple of days how the better equipped teams perform. By better equipped, I mean not only talent, but scouting, coaching, and overall support by their respective university.

These factors, along with odds maker mistakes, may make first half wagering more attractive. Value is always a key in wagering.

I am in no way recommending these plays. I will be playing them and will report on the outcome.

[robby_morini]

Saturday December 30, 2006

1st half Bowl underdog sides have gone 7-1 the past 2 days, with Georgia being the only loser as a +1 for the first half tonight. Remember last year on January 1st Bowl games and after, 1st Half underdog sides went 7-1.

1st half unders have gone 2-5-1 on the same bowl games. Totals during last year bowl games barely broke even (4-3-1)

Todays results:

Navy + 4 (Win) +100
Under 24 (Loss) (110)

Iowa + 6 (Win) 100
Under 27 (Win) 100

UGA +1 (Loss) (110)
Under 19 (Loss) (110)

Down $30 for the day. I am thinking about scaling back the unders until they start to turn.

YTD 1st half dogs: 10-10 ($100) 2 days ago they were 3-9
YTD 1st half under: 8-11 ($ 410)


I am going to try to find the 2004 January 1 and beyond games to see how those fared against this highly unscientific approach to wagering. I will report those results if and when I find them.

Until then, happy and safe New Years Eve to all

[robby_morini]

First of all, Happy and safe New Years to all.

Todays results for the first half under and dog are both losses. Both looked good until the last 1:30 of the half, but not complaining. I am sure that I have won many the other way...I just can't remember those.

YTD first half dogs: 10-11 ($210)
YTD first half unders: 8-12 ($520)

The rest of the bowl season will test this theory. I will actually play $100 on each side and total tomorrow and will post the results tomorrow night.

Good luck to all.

[robby_morini]

Monday January 1, 2007 Results

Take this for what it is worth, but if you took first half dogs in today's bowl games, you went 6-0
Under the first half total continues to be a disappointment with a 2-4 day today.

The past 3 days, the first half dog side has gone 13-2. If you recall in an earlier post, last years bowl games January 1st and after went 7-1. Combined, this is a remarkable 20-3.

Todays results:

Penn State +1.5 Win
Under 21: Win

Nebraska + 1/2 Win
Under 23.5 Loss

Wisconsin + 1/2 Win
Under 23: Loss

Ga Tech + 6 Win
Total 24 (not even close) Loss

USC +1 Win
Under 24 Win

Boise State + 4 Win
Under 24.5 Loss

1st half sides today: 6-0 +600
1st half unders today: 2-4 (240)

Year to date 1st half sides: 16-10 +390
Year to date 1st half unders 8-16-1 ($760)

Will have an update after tomorrow nights game

[robby_morini]

This post is dedicated to jt4545. I have enrolled in a thread etiquette class to prevent me from ever jumping in someone else's thread. Thanks again for understanding.

Tuesday January 2, 2007

1st half underdog: Wake +6 1/2 (Loss)
1st half under: 27 (Win)

YTD First half Bowl sides : 16-11 +390
YTD First Half Bowl total: 9-16-1 (860)

Bowl sides since 12-29-06: 13-3 +970
Bowl unders since 12-29-06: 5-10-1 ($600)