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NFL Week Sixteen
Hello gentlemen! How is everyone doing? Just wanted to wish everyone Happy Holidays!!!
Week 16 Plays:
5 STAR: PITTSBURGH (-3.5) over Baltimore
This will be a big revenge game for the Steelers. Their chances of making the playoffs are slim, but their chances of gaining some revenge on Baltimore is very high. The Ravens whipped the Steelers 27-0 four weeks ago. Pittsburgh felt like they were out physicalled in that game and they will get their payback here. The Steelers are 7-0 against the spread since the 2000 season when facing a team they lost to in their first match up of the season. The Ravens are traveling for the third time in four weeks and they have failed to cover in thirteen of their last eighteen road games. The Steelers have been on a nice roll since their loss at Baltimore as they have cut down on the turnovers and the defense has only allowed 13 points per game in their last three games. I look for Blitzbergh to do a number on whoever lines up under center for Baltimore, a banged up Steve McNair or Kyle Boller. The Steelers have finished the last three seasons strong going 6-0 against the spread in the final two games of the year. I look for them to get it done here as well. Lay the points!
3 STAR: JACKSONVILLE (-3) over New England
This is a big game for the Jags after losing last week in Tennessee. Jacksonville dominated the Titans last week in every stat except turnovers. Tennessee returned two interceptions and one fumble for their three touchdowns, the Jacksonville defense only allowed 98 total yards. The Jags return to Jacksonville for some home cookin. They are 7-0-1 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record and they are 6-1 against the spread at home this year. The Pats got an easy win against the Texans last week (and we were on them!), but they have not really played that well recently as they have failed to cover the spread in five out of their last seven games. The Pats were physically dominated by the Miami defensive line two weeks ago and I think Jacksonville will have the same success here as they are as physical a defense as you’ll find in the league. Lay the points!
3 STAR: BUFFALO (-4.5) over Tennessee
The Titans are hot, winning 5 straight games, but they have been getting a lot of breaks during this win streak. I look for that to end in this game as road teams coming off of three straight up wins as an underdog are only 6-13 against the spread since 1980. Buffalo is also very hot right now. The Bills have covered the spread in seven staight games and JP Losman has been playing very well. The Bills have more weapons with Lee Evans at wide receiver and Willis McGahee in the back field. The Tennessee defense that looked like an elite unit last week will come back down to Earth where the rank near the very bottom of the league in total defense. Vince Young is my boy, but Buffalo is a very tough to play and it should be about 40 degrees with showers for this game. The Titan's lack of offense will catch up to them here. Buffalo is 19-10 against the spread at home coming off of a win and cover. The Bills get it done here, lay the points!
3 STAR: MINNESOTA (+3.5) over Green Bay
1 STAR: MINNESOTA (+$165) over Green Bay
The Vikings are on a 1-8 run against the spread and will be starting rookie Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. Things sure seem to point to Green Bay in this spot and the Packers are the public play on this game, but I like the Vikings here. I don't expect Jackson to set the world on fire, but I do think he will provide a spark to the lifeless Vikings offense. The Green Bay defense is only 19th in the league in total defense, so I do expect Jackson to have some success in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have the best run defense in the league, so you can expect Brett Favre to be slinging away. That doesn't scare me much since he has five interceptions in his last two home games, including three last week against the Lions. It was the Packers defense that won the game for them, holding Detroit to only nine points. I don't look for that to happen again here as the Packers are 0-6 against the spread since 2002 after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season to date average at home. Green Bay is only 5-11-1 against the spread as a home favorite and the road team is 8-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings between these two teams. The Vikings are 10-2 against the spread as a December underdog when they have a record below .500 and they have had good showings on the road this season. Take the points, but I look for the Vikings to win straight up!
2006/2007 RECORD
5 STAR 10-4 (+28.00 UNITS)
3 STAR 17-9-1 (+22.40 UNITS)
2 STAR 13-17-1 (-10.90 UNITS)
1 STAR 3-1 (+1.90 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 43-31-2 (+41.40 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $4140
Everyone have a great and safe holiday!!!
Week 16 Plays:
5 STAR: PITTSBURGH (-3.5) over Baltimore
This will be a big revenge game for the Steelers. Their chances of making the playoffs are slim, but their chances of gaining some revenge on Baltimore is very high. The Ravens whipped the Steelers 27-0 four weeks ago. Pittsburgh felt like they were out physicalled in that game and they will get their payback here. The Steelers are 7-0 against the spread since the 2000 season when facing a team they lost to in their first match up of the season. The Ravens are traveling for the third time in four weeks and they have failed to cover in thirteen of their last eighteen road games. The Steelers have been on a nice roll since their loss at Baltimore as they have cut down on the turnovers and the defense has only allowed 13 points per game in their last three games. I look for Blitzbergh to do a number on whoever lines up under center for Baltimore, a banged up Steve McNair or Kyle Boller. The Steelers have finished the last three seasons strong going 6-0 against the spread in the final two games of the year. I look for them to get it done here as well. Lay the points!
3 STAR: JACKSONVILLE (-3) over New England
This is a big game for the Jags after losing last week in Tennessee. Jacksonville dominated the Titans last week in every stat except turnovers. Tennessee returned two interceptions and one fumble for their three touchdowns, the Jacksonville defense only allowed 98 total yards. The Jags return to Jacksonville for some home cookin. They are 7-0-1 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record and they are 6-1 against the spread at home this year. The Pats got an easy win against the Texans last week (and we were on them!), but they have not really played that well recently as they have failed to cover the spread in five out of their last seven games. The Pats were physically dominated by the Miami defensive line two weeks ago and I think Jacksonville will have the same success here as they are as physical a defense as you’ll find in the league. Lay the points!
3 STAR: BUFFALO (-4.5) over Tennessee
The Titans are hot, winning 5 straight games, but they have been getting a lot of breaks during this win streak. I look for that to end in this game as road teams coming off of three straight up wins as an underdog are only 6-13 against the spread since 1980. Buffalo is also very hot right now. The Bills have covered the spread in seven staight games and JP Losman has been playing very well. The Bills have more weapons with Lee Evans at wide receiver and Willis McGahee in the back field. The Tennessee defense that looked like an elite unit last week will come back down to Earth where the rank near the very bottom of the league in total defense. Vince Young is my boy, but Buffalo is a very tough to play and it should be about 40 degrees with showers for this game. The Titan's lack of offense will catch up to them here. Buffalo is 19-10 against the spread at home coming off of a win and cover. The Bills get it done here, lay the points!
3 STAR: MINNESOTA (+3.5) over Green Bay
1 STAR: MINNESOTA (+$165) over Green Bay
The Vikings are on a 1-8 run against the spread and will be starting rookie Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. Things sure seem to point to Green Bay in this spot and the Packers are the public play on this game, but I like the Vikings here. I don't expect Jackson to set the world on fire, but I do think he will provide a spark to the lifeless Vikings offense. The Green Bay defense is only 19th in the league in total defense, so I do expect Jackson to have some success in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have the best run defense in the league, so you can expect Brett Favre to be slinging away. That doesn't scare me much since he has five interceptions in his last two home games, including three last week against the Lions. It was the Packers defense that won the game for them, holding Detroit to only nine points. I don't look for that to happen again here as the Packers are 0-6 against the spread since 2002 after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season to date average at home. Green Bay is only 5-11-1 against the spread as a home favorite and the road team is 8-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings between these two teams. The Vikings are 10-2 against the spread as a December underdog when they have a record below .500 and they have had good showings on the road this season. Take the points, but I look for the Vikings to win straight up!
2006/2007 RECORD
5 STAR 10-4 (+28.00 UNITS)
3 STAR 17-9-1 (+22.40 UNITS)
2 STAR 13-17-1 (-10.90 UNITS)
1 STAR 3-1 (+1.90 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 43-31-2 (+41.40 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $4140
Everyone have a great and safe holiday!!!
It's always noon somewhere! 
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