TP's Bowl Writeups

[Tomorrows Paper]

I already posted my plays in another thread, but I'll post at least an opinion on every game in this thread.

Final regular season record:
NCAA Plays (65-48-4, +21.47)
Bowl Plays (0-0)
Bowl Opinions (0-0)

Poinsettia Bowl
Opinion: Northern Illinois vs. TCU Under 47
Well, I’m pretty open to different ways of thinking, but it takes a lot for me to consider betting a double digit bowl favorite - I believe 7 in a row have failed to cover, not 100% on that, but I do know that none covered last year. It’s hard to make a case for Northern Illinois here, though, as TCU simply ended the season on a mission. I wouldn’t be shocked if they continue that here, as the Horned Frogs possess a run defense that should be able to at least check Garret Wolfe. If Wolfe doesn’t go anywhere, neither does NIU, as the QB play the Huskies have received has been woefully inconsistent. Horvath appears to be out - not that that's any great loss - but Nicholson is a capable backup, though he isn't likely to throw for more than about 150 yards here.
However, I’m simply not sure TCU has a potent enough offense to justify laying this number. They are more a run-based team - though they can pass a little, I don’t think that Ballard is going to be able to take full advantage of a weak Northern Illinois secondary - and the strength of the Northern Illinois defense is stopping the run, as they allow only 3.5 yards per rush. This should be a fairly low-scoring game, and the guess here is that the points come into play. I’m not willing to bet either side. The only thing I would even consider betting is the under.
TCU 24, Northern Illinois 17

Best of luck with whoever you play in this one, I'm sitting it out.

[Spearit]

My thoughts are on the under as well- however, overs reigned last year and so I will watch. Best of Luck TP

[Spiccoli]

Bump...great analysis.

[Tomorrows Paper]

NCAA Plays (65-48-4, +21.47)
Bowl Plays (0-0)
Bowl Opinions (1-0)

Las Vegas Bowl
2* BYU -5.5 (-108) vs. Oregon
Well, I bet 10 bowl games shortly after the lines opened, and this is one of two I wish I would have waited to play. The line opened 6, quickly dropped to 5.5, and that was good enough for me. I really believe this game is going to be decided by double digits. The fact that the line has dipped like it has is quite surprising, though it makes a little sense in so much as it is natural to take the big name team from a BCS conference getting points from the “mid-major” team. I think people are focusing on reputation and ignoring the actual teams that will take the field for this game.
I think Oregon is going to be one of the teams with little interest in its bowl game, and if Belotti doesn’t get his players focused, they are liable to get run out of Las Vegas. Even if they show up ready to play, they just aren’t as good as BYU on either side of the ball. BYU won’t mind this bowl game at all, and they have a balanced offense that should pick apart the Ducks defense. Beck doesn’t turn the ball over, and of course his numbers have been fabulous all season. What often gets overlooked is that BYU can run the ball pretty well also, led by Vakapuna, who is one of those “bowling ball“ type backs who are very difficult to tackle.
Meanwhile, a once promising Oregon offense is in shambles. I don’t know if they plan on playing Dixon, who played most of the year but was terribly inefficient down the stretch, or Leaf, who played against Oregon State, but is hobbling around. Neither is playing very well, and if BYU takes away Jonathon Stewart early - and BYU’s run defense is by far their strongpoint - by stopping him a couple times and by building an early lead, Belotti will abandon the running game.
Look at what these teams have done away from home. Oregon has gotten blown out at Cal, Washington State, and USC, and was beaten at Oregon State. They also needed a late fake FG to beat a 2-10 Fresno State team. The Ducks only impressive road effort was at Arizona State, who is a midlevel team from the fifth best conference in the country. BYU has lost two games this season, both on the road in overtime - at BC and Arizona (who just so happened to have gone into Eugene and blown out Oregon). They won all their other road games, including easily beating TCU on the road. BYU has been one of the best ATS teams in the nation all season long, going 9-2-1, including 4-1-1 ATS away from home.
Oregon gets some points, but BYU gets a lot more in what should be a shootout. I’d consider playing the over, but BYU is capable of putting together long drives, and I don’t think Oregon’s offense is going to have it as easy as they did against the soft Pac-10 defenses. I’ll just lay the short number in what should be a comfortable win for the more motivated team with the better defense and quarterback.
BYU 42, Oregon 27

[kbsooner21]

Love the call on BYU here Paper! GL to us

[Tomorrows Paper]

Glad to hear it KB!

December 22nd
New Orleans Bowl

Opinion: Rice -4 vs. Troy
This line opened +8, and at that number, I don’t know which side I would have leaned towards. I think that number was very accurate, but with the amazing steam towards Troy, I can't help but look at Rice at this reduced number.
Typical bowl matchup of very good offense and no defense against no offense and very good defense. Rarely would I favor the offensive team, but I think I am forced to here, for a couple reasons. That team, Rice, plays in the far superior conference, and I’m not sure Troy’s defense is actually as good as the numbers show, simply from the lack of good offenses they have faced. They get a really potent one here, as Rice has a very good quarterback and a dominant receiver. Jarrett Dillard doesn’t look imposing - Rice is the only D-I school that offered him a scholarship - but he has 20 TD receptions this season, which leads the nation. To put that into perspective, Calvin Johnson has 13 TDs, and Jeff Samardjiza has only 11. When Clement was out with injury, Rice was very beatable. Since he has come back, Rice has been playing extremely well. It has been an underdog in its last five games, not only covering each, but winning each outright.
Here’s my Coach of the Year ballot:
1. Jim Grobe
2. Bob Stoops
3. Todd Graham

Graham has worked wonders with this Rice team, and I think he will cap it off with a bowl victory. However, I’m hesitant to actually back Rice as a favorite, because teams that have success as an underdog don’t necessarily duplicate that success when installed as a favorite.
Rice 28, Troy 20

[Tomorrows Paper]

Correction: BYU actually lost in the closing seconds of regulation against Arizona, not in OT.

December 23rd

Papa John’s Bowl
Opinion: East Carolina +5
This should be a really good game. I was looking to back both these teams in their bowl games, but they ended up playing each other. I feel that South Florida is still slightly the better team, and the line is pretty close to where it should be. USF’s Grothe and ECU’s Pinkney are both very good players, but I would prefer to take the senior (Pinkney) over the freshman. Also, USF doesn’t really have the ability to run the ball - Grothe is actually their leading rusher by quite a bit - and the ECU secondary is good enough to frustrate the young QB.
Skip Holtz has excelled against the point spread since coming to East Carolina - 18-5 ATS - and he has been especially effective as an underdog. This should be a low-scoring game, and I think getting five points with the more experienced team is the way to go. Still, the speed and raw talent advantages - USF's defensive speed is incredible - the Bulls possess make it difficult to recommend any kind of a real play.
South Florida 20, East Carolina 17

[Tomorrows Paper]

New Mexico Bowl
Opinion: San Jose State +3.5 vs. New Mexico
Hard to recommend a play now, considering how this line has dropped three points. Still, San Jose State is New Mexico’s equal or superior in almost every aspect. Sure, the game is being played in New Mexico, but I’m not even sure that’s an advantage, as San Jose State will be thrilled to get out of town and they will treat this bowl game as a much deserved reward for a fantastic season. Meanwhile, New Mexico is only in this game because that will help sell tickets for this game which few fans would care about otherwise.
If Donovan Porterie isn’t able to go - he is currently questionable - San Jose State should roll in this game. If he does play, this game will likely be close. With offensive coordinator Bob Toledo’s departure, and the San Jose defense - which has improved as much as any unit in the nation - I don’t think New Mexico will be scoring a lot of points, but the question is whether or not Dick Tomey and company can figure out the 3-3-5 defense. My guess is that they have the playmakers to do so. Both these teams played a lot of close games this season, and getting 3.5 could come into play, but I think the Spartans win outright.
San Jose State 24, New Mexico 21

[Tomorrows Paper]

Armed Forces Bowl
Opinion: Utah -1 vs. Tulsa
The fact that this line opened at Utah -7 (very briefly, it was down to 5.5 after about one minute, down to 4 by the end of the night) is enough of a reason to consider them in this game. I actually didn’t see a lot of value in Tulsa +7, or I would obviously have played them. I do think this will be a fairly entertaining game if both teams show up. Utah unquestionably has more talent across the field, but I think there is a solid coaching advantage in Tulsa’s favor (I am totally shocked that Steve Kragthorpe is still at Tulsa and not at some major program).
Still, Kyle Whittingham has a very good defensive mind, and given time to prepare for Tulsa’s unique offense, he may be able to contrive a defense strong enough to stop the Hurricane in this one. I like Paul Smith as a quarterback, but the Utes’ secondary is capable of slowing Tulsa’s passing game. The Tulsa defense is likely going to have a very difficult time against Ratliff and the Ute passing game, which ended the season on a very high note.
If Utah has mentally recovered from the last play loss to BYU at the close of the season, they are very likely to win this game.
Utah 24, Tulsa 20

[Tomorrows Paper]

December 24th

Hawaii Bowl
Opinion: Arizona State vs. Hawaii Over 73.5
Really not a lot to say here. Hawaii has feasted on below average secondaries, and they get one of the worst defenses in the nation in this game. The Hawaii pass defense isn’t anything spectacular either, and though Carpenter won’t be able to match Brennan, he’ll at least lead ASU to 30 or so. I don’t think either coach is going to hold anything back, especially since Koetter is fired.
I'd actually lean to Hawaii, though I don't want to get burned taking them again.
Hawaii 48, Arizona State 34

[CheCheBoFumbe]

Good luck on BYU

[Spiccoli]

Bump

[LSUMONSTER]

Bump

[drugstuntman]

solid takes...thanks for the analysis