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Power Sweep NFL selections
NFL KEY SELECTIONS:
4* ST LOUIS over Arizona - This is our Customer Appreciation Play. This is
the Sunday Night ESPN game & as an added bonus for our customers the Rams
are our Sunday Night ESPN Play so there is no need to call Phil Steele’s
Private Play Hotline for this week’s play. The Rams took the first meeting
between these teams 27-14 as a 3 pt AF which was a 4* Late Phone Play
Winner. QB Marc Bulger led the Rams to a 23-13 FD edge & the Rams outgained
the Cardinals 415-235 in Arizona. The Rams, for all their past glory are
only 2-8 ATS in prime time games since 1999 but this was due to the fact
teams were getting up to play one of the NFL’s top teams not the current
5-8 unit. Last week KC got up big on St Louis via an 88 yd kickoff ret, a
42 yd fumble ret & an 86 yd PR all for TD’s to lead 35-10 at the half as QB
Martin had 111 yds passing for the Rams while KC’s Green only had 34 yds.
Because of the score RB Faulk saw little 2H action & he should be healthier
for this game. The Cardinals have enough players on injured reserve to
field a complete special teams unit. They got a huge load off of their back
last week with their win over the Lions snapping a 6 game losing streak &
have nothing to play for here. Arizona comes in with the NFL’s #28 offense
& #30 defense taking on a much more talented Rams team that has Top 10
units on both sides of the ball (#10 offense & #7 defense). We see St Louis
winning big at home here. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 31 Arizona 6
3* BUFFALO over San Diego - These teams met last year with different
starting QB’s as the Chargers lost 27-24 as 7 pt HF’s. Buffalo finished
with 22-17 FD & 396-338 yd edges as a blocked Charger FG at the end of
regulation was the difference. The Chargers do not travel well as they are
3-13 SU & 5-10-1 ATS on the road vs teams in the Eastern time zone. They
are however 8-2-1 ATS on turf since 1999. The Chargers are an overrated
team TY even though Marty Schottenheimer has done a good job of turning
this team around in his first year here. They have the #19 rated offense &
the defense is only at #27 for the year. Two weeks ago the Bills hosted a
similarly styled warm weather team in the Dolphins in cold weather &
outFD’d them 21-14 & outgained them 431-300 with a 38-21 score. Last week
the Chargers played a tough game vs the Raiders & have a road game vs the
Chiefs next week. With the Bills having lost LW we gain line value here. We
side with the home team. FORECAST: BUFFALO 27 San Diego 14
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* ATLANTA over Seattle - In the last meeting Seattle beat the Falcons
30-10 as a 1 pt AF in 2000. The Falcons are coming off a long 3 game road
trip & have a home game vs Detroit & a road game vs Cleveland up next. The
Falcons are 11-4 ATS as a HF vs NFC teams. Defensively the Falcons rank #18
overall & TY have been allowing 97 ypg rushing (4.1) at home. The Seahawks
defense has had its share of problems with injuries TY & lost DE Lamar King
for the year in practice LW & his replacement Anton Palepoi had to leave
the field in the last game due to an ankle injury. They are currently
ranked #28 overall & are allowing 148 ypg rushing (4.2) on the road.
Offensively they have at first glance a respectable #14 offense for the
year but they have been getting a lot of garbage yds late in games the last
2 weeks such as when the 49ers went up 27-10 & the Eagles went up 27-6 & up
off on them. Atlanta is off a loss to the Bucs in which Michael Vick was
summarily shut down & he will want to make amends & at home is a good place
to do it. Seattle is in a tough spot here having just played San Fran &
Philadelphia then travelling cross country to face the Falcons in a now
hostile venue. FORECAST: ATLANTA 34 Seattle 17
2* PITTSBURGH over Carolina - The last time these teams met was in December
of 1999 when the Steelers won 30-20 as 3’ pt HD’s. LW Tommy Maddox returned
for the Steelers & he threw for 325 yds (53%) with a 0-2 ratio with both
int’s being returned for TD’s as well as a fumble. Pittsburgh is 2-7-1 ATS
hosting NFC teams. The Panthers are 2-5 ATS as an AD of 7’ or more vs AFC
teams. LW’s offensive display of 52 pts for the Panthers accounts for 25%
of their 210 pts for the year. Carolina as an AD of 6 or more is 20-11-1
ATS since its inception. The Steelers outside of division play have 22-18
FD & 389-323 yd edges but have been outscored 27-22 on avg & are 1-6-1 ATS.
The Panthers hold a 17-16 FD edge & have a surprising 317-272 yd edge with
an avg score of 21-14 7 are 7-1 ATS in non-div play TY. The Steelers
currently possess a half game lead over the Browns in the NFC North & have
a Monday road game vs the Bucs up next. Cowher & Co should be in a surly
jaw jutting mood here & they are taking on a Carolina team that was shut
out by Atlanta, only had 234 yds of offense vs Cleveland & while they did
gain 401 yds LW it was vs Cincy & they did have a 2 yd fumble ret, 61 & 87
yd punt returns for TD’s which helped make things look worse than they
really were. At the same time Pittsburgh did lose 24-6 but 21 of Houston’s
points were defensive returns for TD’s. The Steelers actually outgained the
Texans 422-47 & Houston only had THREE FIRST DOWNS & yet still scrambled
out with the win. Pittsburgh takes care of business. FORECAST: PITTSBURGH
27 Carolina 6
OTHER GAMES:
NMIAMI 27 Oakland 17 - Miami is off a Monday Night game vs the Bears &
those results are unavailable. These teams met LY as Miami won 18-15 as a 1
pt HF. The Dolphins ended the game with 19-12 FD & 359-216 yd edges. Miami
has always been proud of its defense especially at home where the Dolphins
have a 21-13 FD advantage & a 356-214 yd edge with an avg score of 28-12.
The Raider offense will be a formidable challenge as Rich Gannon has thrown
for over 300 yds in 10 games TY & on the road they hold a 24-21 FD edge &
are outgaining teams 433-328 with an avg score of 29-19. This is a tough
stretch for the Raider defense as although they are #3 in run defense they
face Ricky Williams, Clinton Portis & our Offensive MVP, Priest Holmes, in
what HC Mike Callahan called a murderers row of rushers. The Dolphins
defense will look to play a physical game vs the Raider WR’s trying to keep
them out of a passing rhythm while keeping Ricky Williams on the field to
control the clock & Rich Gannon.
NY Jets 24 CHICAGO 13 - The Bears are off LW’s Monday Night game & those
results are unavailable. These teams last encountered each other in 2000
when the Jets pushed 17-10 as a 7 pt HF. This may be a flat spot for the
Jets as they are off a Monday Night game vs the Raiders & a home game vs
Denver & have the Patriots & Packers on deck. The Jets are 6-1 ATS the last
7 away games on artificial turf. The Jets have the #19 pass offense over
the last 4 weeks right now avg 229 ypg (68%) with an 8-2 ratio behind Chad
Pennington. The Bears have the #29 pass defense allowing 280 ypg passing
(59%) with an 8-4 ratio. Offensively the Bears have the #17 pass offense
over the last 4 weeks throwing for 237 ypg with a 7-2 ratio & as the season
wears on so does the pain in QB Jim Miller’s tendonitis inflamed shoulder.
The Jets have held their own lately but are #22 in pass defense with 241
ypg pass (66%) with a 4-4 ratio. The Jets are 6-0-1 ATS the last 7 & are
fighting for their post season lives while the Bears are coming off a MNF
game having put their all into that game in an effort to gain national
respectability. The Jets are a very healthy team right now especially
compared to the Bears who have had to place 10 players on IR TY & Brian
Urlacher has had some issues with a neck stinger and Pennington should
enjoy the step down in competition here.
CINCINNATI 17 Jacksonville 14 - LY in Cincinnati the Jaguars won 14-10 as a
1 pt AF finishing with 17-12 FD & 255-200 yd edges. The home team is 8-3-1
ATS in this series. The Bengals have not had much of a home field advantage
as they are 0-6 SU & ATS at home TY. The Jaguars on the road have not fared
better either as they are 0-7 ATS as an AF in that role. Over the last 4
weeks the Bengals have put up solid numbers on one side of the ball at
least as their #10 offense shows that despite their 1-12 record & #22
defense they have not given up on the season. The Jaguars have been the
very example of parity TY beating the Eagles only to lose Houston & are
currently #27 offensively & #27 defensively over the last 4 weeks. The
Jaguars do have division rivals Tennessee & Indianapolis up next & may be
looking ahead a bit here hoping to play the spoiler role as they have
pretty much been eliminated from the playoffs. The Bengals are desperate to
get to 3 wins so they can escape the tag of the worst team in franchise
history. Yes, the Bengals have not had much luck at home TY but in addition
to playing well offensively lately they are a cold weather team hosting
warm weather team that doesn’t have much left to play for.
Indianapolis 21 CLEVELAND 20 - The last time these teams met was in ‘99
when the Colts beat the injury depleted Browns 29-28 but failed to cover as
a 13’ pt AF. CLE is 6-1 ATS hosting turf teams. This game has the Browns OC
Bruce Arians up against his former team the Colts. The Colts are 5-11 ATS
the L/16 on grass. The Browns are 6-1 ATS hosting art turf teams. In AFC
play outside the division the Colts are 3-2 SU but 1-4 ATS & hold a 23-18
FD edge with a 354-329 yd edge but have been outscored 22-19 on avg. The
Browns are 4-1 SU & ATS & hold a 21-16 FD with a 359-292 yd edge & have
outscored foes 30-25 on avg. The Browns kept their slim playoff hopes alive
with a 50 yd TD pass LW vs the Jags giving us a 3* Late Phone Selection
Winner on the Over LW and while the Colts are the better team and a Browns
win would not surprise us.
Tampa Bay 24 DETROIT 7 - This is another division rivalry that has ended
due to the NFL realignment. Tampa Bay is a surprising 2-7 as an AF vs the
Lions. The dog is 8-2 ATS the last 10 in the series. Since this technically
counts as a non-div game the Bucs are 21-9-1 vs non-division teams since
1999. The Bucs have climbed to the #11 pass offense over the last 4 weeks
but are only #28 in rushing with 82 ypg (3.5). QB Brad Johnson has done a
solid job as the Bucs QB & he has thrown for 250 ypg (65%) with a 15-1
ratio over the last 5 games. This is despite an OL that not been performing
well TY allowing 30 sacks so far TY. The Detroit defense over the last 5
games has allowed 278 ypg passing (64%) with a 10-3 ratio. This is a
potential flat spot for the Bucs as the last time they were off a big home
win was vs the Packers & the following week they lost on the road to the
Saints. However, Joey Harrington is a very young QB right now & he will
make mistakes vs a Bucs defense that is #1 in pass defense for the year.
The Buc defense simply has too much talent here & we see them continuing
their trend of scoring a defensive TD despite an obvious flat spot.
Baltimore 14 HOUSTON 12 - Houston is off a misleading final from LW vs the
Steelers having won 24-6. At the end of the game the Steelers had 24-3 FD &
422-47 yd edges constructed on a 39:41 to 20:19 TOP edge. David Carr
finished with 33 yds (30%) passing as the Texan defense scored 21 points by
itself off of 2 int’s & a fumble. The Ravens are 10-5 ATS vs non-division
teams & TY vs non-div AFC teams have been outFD’d 21-13 & outgained 371-218
but have managed to keep the score close with a 19-18 scoring deficit. The
Texans have been outFD’d 21-13 & outgained 342-225 but have been outscored
27-14 in non-div AFC play. The Ravens have proved to be a scrappy team TY
but with Houston’s upset of PIT last week, there really isn’t any line
value and we’ll let the linesmakers decide.
NEW ORLEANS 35 Minnesota 24 - The Vikings played the Packers LW on Sunday
Night & those results were not in as we went to press. These teams met LY
with the Saints winning 28-15 as a 4 pt HF. The Saints had a 20-16 FD
advantage & a 370-340 yd edge The Saints have a 5-2 ATS record in this
series & prior to LW the Vikings were 5-12 ATS on the road the last 17 &
the last time they won a road game SU was Thanksgiving of 2000. The Saints
are 2-6-1 ATS as a HF the last 9 as a HF. Versus non-div foes the Vikings
have split the FD’s 22-22 but been outgained 401-383 with an avg score of
32-21. The Saints have split their FD’s 20-20 & been outgained 364-351 but
have outscored their non-div opponents on avg 31-25. LW Aaron Brooks came
out in the 3Q due to his arm injury from the previous week & his status in
unknown (call a Full Service Line for an update on his status) but Jake
Delhomme knows the offense well as his 103 yds passing (87%) in relief
showed & Deuce McAllister is healthier off his ankle sprain as he showed in
rushing for 127 yds (4.2) & 3 TD’s LW. This should be a high scoring affair
but with the Saints fighting for a playoff spot they get the edge here.
PHILADELPHIA 17 Washington 16 - The first meeting between these 2 TY was on
Monday Night as the nation watched to see how effective the Spurrier Fun &
Gun would do vs a quality defensive secondary. The answer came in the form
of the Eagles winning 37-7 as a 3 pt AF. The Eagles earned a 22-11 FD edge
& an impressive 451-179 yd edge as the defense limited the Redskins to 119
yds passing (52%) with a 0-2 ratio. The Redskins on the road have been
outFD’d 20-18 & outgained 308-278 while being outscored 20-15. The Eagles
at home have outFD’d foes 20-16 & outgained them 376-291 with a avg 25-14
score. They are 2-6 ATS in their final home game while the Redskins are 3-9
ATS in their final road game. Steve Spurrier has accepted the fact that his
team is out of playoff contention & has decided to evaluate the talent he
has on hand TY reducing RB Stephen Davis’s role & looking at RB Ladell
Betts. The Eagles however are fighting with the Bucs & Packers for the 1st
round bye. We see the key here being Washington’s DC Lewis vs QB Feeley
being made to throw and we take the points.
DENVER 24 Kansas City 14 - The 1st game between these teams TY went to OT
with Denver needing TE Shannon Sharpe’s record setting 214 yds receiving &
Brian Griese’s career high 376 yds pass (60%) with a 2-0 ratio to come from
a 14 pt deficit and win SU 37-34. The Chiefs are now 6-1-1 ATS in the
series. They are also back in their preferred role of AD where they are
12-4 ATS the last 16 & they are 11-5 ATS as a division AD. Over the last 4
weeks the Chiefs have the #2 offense & the #8 defense & are +7 in
turnovers. The Broncos are #9 in offense & #11 in defense & are -7 in
turnovers & LW they took 7 possessions inside the Jets 32 but were only
able to come away with 13 points. The Chiefs are off 2 blowout wins vs a
very banged up Cardinals team & a Rams team that was hurt by poor special
teams play & a 42 yd fumble return. LW at the half Trent Green only passed
for 34 yds (37%) as Priest Holmes earned 103 yds (6.4). The Broncos have
now lost 3 straight & at 4-6 in conference play are in serious danger of
falling out of the playoffs. We look for the Broncos to end that slide here.
Green Bay 27 SAN FRANCISCO 24 - The Packers are off LW’s Sunday Night game
vs the Vikings & those results were not available at presstime. The last
time these teams met in the regular season was in 2000 when the Packers won
SU but failed to cover 31-28 as a 4 pt HF. Both teams have clinched their
respective divisions & are now fighting for a possible 1st round bye. This
is essentially a playoff game for all intents and purposes as this will
have serious implications as to home field advantage later. Including
playoffs, the Packers are 8-2-1 ATS in this series. In non-div NFC games TY
these teams are pretty even except for a key factor. Packers are 3-2 SU but
1-4 ATS TY in these games. They outFD’d foes 20-18 & outgained them 330-310
with an avg score of 23-22 in the opponents favor. The most interesting
factor is that in these games Packers allowed 141 ypg rushing (4.6 ypc).
The 49ers are 3-2 SU & 1-3-1 ATS & outFD’d foes 22-18 & outgained them
375-320 with an avg score of 25-22 in the opponents favor. The Packers, as
noted, above they have had some success vs the Niners unlike previous trips
to Minnesota & Tampa where they have struggled in the past.
NY GIANTS 16 Dallas 10 - In the first meeting the Giants went into Dallas &
won 21-17 as a 1 pt AF. The Cowboys had a 20-16 FD edge & outgained the
Giants 340-316 as HC Jim Fassell took over the play calling for the Giants
offense. The home team is 16-7 in this series & the dog is 7-2 when this
game is played in NY. The Giants are 1-7-1 ATS as a HF the last 9 in that
role. The Giants at home have a 22-16 FD edge & have outgained their
opponents 343-285 but have been outscored 18-17. The Cowboys on the road
have been outFD’d 18-15 & outgained 317-272 while being outscored 18-9.
This will also be the Cowboys first road game since November 17th & they
are 1-16 SU & 5-12 ATS as an AD of 5 or more. While the Giants have not
fared well in the role of favorite side with them here as they always seem
to play better when their backs are slammed up vs the wall.
New England at TENNESSEE - Monday Night. These teams have not met since
1998 & only 4 times since 1989. Both teams are still in the playoff fight
after defeating division rivals LW. The winner will still be very much
alive with the Patriots finishing out their season vs the Jets & Dolphins
at home. The Titans close the year out with road trips to Jacksonville &
Houston. Both teams are pretty similar in standings with the Pat’s having
the #15 offense & defense while the Titans possess the #17 offense & #19
defense. Who will we choose? Get the Monday Night Magic Winner after 5:00
p.m. EST.
PLAYOFF OUTLOOK Below is our look at each contenders' playoff chances. We
rank them in order of their chances of making the playoffs.
NFC
1. Philadelphia (10-3) Washington, at Dallas, at NY Giants The Eagles
control their own destiny, if they win the last 3 games they will have home
field advantage for the playoffs as they would be undefeated in the NFC and
hold the tie-breaker vs Tampa Bay with their win over the Bucs and their
better NFC record gives them an edge over Green Bay.
2. Tampa Bay (10-3) at Detroit, Pittsburgh, at Chicago The Bucs have a good
shot at winning their last 3 games of the season and will be favored in all
3. Should Philly slip up somewhere they would be able to grab home field
advantage for the playoffs but it could be the 3rd straight year they have
to travel to Philly in the playoffs if they meet them in the NFC Title game.
3. Green Bay (9-3) Minnesota, at San Francisco, Buffalo, at NY Jets The
Packers have a pivotal game this week vs San Francisco where a loss would
drop either team from the race for the home field advantage. Philly would
hold the better record and Tampa Bay beat them head on. They have to finish
ahead of both to get home field advantage in the playoffs. They, of course,
have wrapped up their division.
4. San Francisco (9-4) Green Bay, at Arizona, at St Louis The Niners are a
game back of the top 3 but could improve their chances with a victory over
Green Bay this week. Should they win there they will be favored in their
final 2 games and have a good shot at a 12-4 finish. They did lose to
Philadelphia costing them that tie-breaker but have already clinched the
division and are in the playoffs.
5. New Orleans (9-4) Minnesota, at Cincinnati, Carolina The Saints will be
favored in their final 3 games and a 12-4 finish is probable. They need
only one Tampa Bay loss to wrap up the division should they win their last
3 as they beat the Bucs’ twice during the regular season and own the
tie-breaker.
6. Atlanta (8-4-1) Seattle, Detroit, at Cleveland The Falcons’ magic number
is two against the Giants to make the playoffs. Any combination of two
Atlanta wins and two Giants losses put them into the post season. They are
a longshot for their division but should be favored in their final 3 games
but of course would need Tampa Bay to lose twice and the Saints to lose once.
7. NY Giants (7-6) Dallas, at Indianapolis, Philadelphia The Giants have to
win out and hope Atlanta loses twice to be able to make the post season.
They seem to play better when the pressure is on, however, so don’t
discount them yet.
AFC
1. Oakland (9-4) at Miami, Denver, Kansas City The Raiders are now 9-4 with
the best record in the AFC and have an outstanding AFC record of 7-2. This
week’s game is big but they get their final two at home and an 11-5 record
will probably be good enough for home field advantage for the AFC. They
have a better AFC record than Indianapolis.
2. Indianapolis (8-5) at Cleveland, NY Giants, Jacksonville The Colts lost
last week and have a tough game this week at Cleveland but then finish at
home vs the Giants and Jacksonville and have a great shot at winning the 3
for an 11-5 finish. Their 6-4 AFC record hurts them but they could be home
for the first round of the playoffs.
3. New England (8-5) at Tennessee, NY Jets, Miami The defending Super Bowl
Champs have a tough game this week Monday Night at Tennessee but if they
win there they have a decent shot at finishing at the top of the AFC East
with an 11-5 record as they would be favored in their final two both at
home. The Pats will likely win the division in the season finale when they
host Miami in the cold of New England.
4. Miami (7-5) Chicago, Oakland, at Minnesota, at New England While the
Dolphins should be battling the Patriots to the end, it will be tough for
them to win in the cold of Foxboro in the season finale but should they
pull the upset there then Miami would win the division or should at least
make it as a Wildcard.
5. Tennessee (8-5) New England, at Jacksonville, at Houston The Titans
actually have the edge over Indianapolis in the division but have a tough
game this week against New England and a deceptively tough one at
Jacksonville the next week. Should they win both of those, Tennessee would
win the AFC South as they hold the tie-breaker over Indianapolis.
6. Pittsburgh (7-5-1) Carolina, at Tampa Bay, Baltimore The Steelers do
have a tough game at Tampa Bay but should be able win at home vs Carolina
and Baltimore and simply need to win their division and stay ahead of
Cleveland to make the playoffs. They will have a 1st round playoff game.
7. Cleveland (7-6) Indianapolis, at Baltimore, Atlanta We do expect the
Browns to drop possibly one of the last 3 games but if they win out they
could win their division as Pittsburgh will have a tough game at Tampa Bay
next week. We put the Browns at #7 not because we think they have a shot at
the Wildcard but because they have the best shot at winning the division
among the Wildcard entrants as they are only a half game behind Pittsburgh.
If the Browns win out, they will win the division.
8. Denver (7-6) Kansas City, at Oakland, Arizona Denver does have a poor
AFC record (4-6) but gets KC and Arizona at home and a road trip to
Oakland. It looks like a 9-7 finish for the Broncos and last week’s loss
probably leaves them on the outside looking in.
9. San Diego (8-5) at Buffalo, at Kansas City, Seattle The Chargers
probably will be favored in two of their last 3 games. They have a better
AFC record than Denver does but are also on the outside looking in.
10. NY Jets (7-6) at Chicago, at New England, Green Bay The Jets won last
week keeping their slim playoff hopes alive. They should win this week in
Chicago but finish at New England and hosting Green Bay which makes it very
difficult for them to get to the playoffs. They have pulled some upsets in
recent weeks, however, they are still alive.
11. Kansas City (7-6) at Denver, San Diego, at Oakland The Chiefs have to
play at Denver and at Oakland in their final 3 weeks and also host San
Diego. We’ll put them in the longshot category at this point.
4* ST LOUIS over Arizona - This is our Customer Appreciation Play. This is
the Sunday Night ESPN game & as an added bonus for our customers the Rams
are our Sunday Night ESPN Play so there is no need to call Phil Steele’s
Private Play Hotline for this week’s play. The Rams took the first meeting
between these teams 27-14 as a 3 pt AF which was a 4* Late Phone Play
Winner. QB Marc Bulger led the Rams to a 23-13 FD edge & the Rams outgained
the Cardinals 415-235 in Arizona. The Rams, for all their past glory are
only 2-8 ATS in prime time games since 1999 but this was due to the fact
teams were getting up to play one of the NFL’s top teams not the current
5-8 unit. Last week KC got up big on St Louis via an 88 yd kickoff ret, a
42 yd fumble ret & an 86 yd PR all for TD’s to lead 35-10 at the half as QB
Martin had 111 yds passing for the Rams while KC’s Green only had 34 yds.
Because of the score RB Faulk saw little 2H action & he should be healthier
for this game. The Cardinals have enough players on injured reserve to
field a complete special teams unit. They got a huge load off of their back
last week with their win over the Lions snapping a 6 game losing streak &
have nothing to play for here. Arizona comes in with the NFL’s #28 offense
& #30 defense taking on a much more talented Rams team that has Top 10
units on both sides of the ball (#10 offense & #7 defense). We see St Louis
winning big at home here. FORECAST: ST LOUIS 31 Arizona 6
3* BUFFALO over San Diego - These teams met last year with different
starting QB’s as the Chargers lost 27-24 as 7 pt HF’s. Buffalo finished
with 22-17 FD & 396-338 yd edges as a blocked Charger FG at the end of
regulation was the difference. The Chargers do not travel well as they are
3-13 SU & 5-10-1 ATS on the road vs teams in the Eastern time zone. They
are however 8-2-1 ATS on turf since 1999. The Chargers are an overrated
team TY even though Marty Schottenheimer has done a good job of turning
this team around in his first year here. They have the #19 rated offense &
the defense is only at #27 for the year. Two weeks ago the Bills hosted a
similarly styled warm weather team in the Dolphins in cold weather &
outFD’d them 21-14 & outgained them 431-300 with a 38-21 score. Last week
the Chargers played a tough game vs the Raiders & have a road game vs the
Chiefs next week. With the Bills having lost LW we gain line value here. We
side with the home team. FORECAST: BUFFALO 27 San Diego 14
OTHER SELECTIONS:
2* ATLANTA over Seattle - In the last meeting Seattle beat the Falcons
30-10 as a 1 pt AF in 2000. The Falcons are coming off a long 3 game road
trip & have a home game vs Detroit & a road game vs Cleveland up next. The
Falcons are 11-4 ATS as a HF vs NFC teams. Defensively the Falcons rank #18
overall & TY have been allowing 97 ypg rushing (4.1) at home. The Seahawks
defense has had its share of problems with injuries TY & lost DE Lamar King
for the year in practice LW & his replacement Anton Palepoi had to leave
the field in the last game due to an ankle injury. They are currently
ranked #28 overall & are allowing 148 ypg rushing (4.2) on the road.
Offensively they have at first glance a respectable #14 offense for the
year but they have been getting a lot of garbage yds late in games the last
2 weeks such as when the 49ers went up 27-10 & the Eagles went up 27-6 & up
off on them. Atlanta is off a loss to the Bucs in which Michael Vick was
summarily shut down & he will want to make amends & at home is a good place
to do it. Seattle is in a tough spot here having just played San Fran &
Philadelphia then travelling cross country to face the Falcons in a now
hostile venue. FORECAST: ATLANTA 34 Seattle 17
2* PITTSBURGH over Carolina - The last time these teams met was in December
of 1999 when the Steelers won 30-20 as 3’ pt HD’s. LW Tommy Maddox returned
for the Steelers & he threw for 325 yds (53%) with a 0-2 ratio with both
int’s being returned for TD’s as well as a fumble. Pittsburgh is 2-7-1 ATS
hosting NFC teams. The Panthers are 2-5 ATS as an AD of 7’ or more vs AFC
teams. LW’s offensive display of 52 pts for the Panthers accounts for 25%
of their 210 pts for the year. Carolina as an AD of 6 or more is 20-11-1
ATS since its inception. The Steelers outside of division play have 22-18
FD & 389-323 yd edges but have been outscored 27-22 on avg & are 1-6-1 ATS.
The Panthers hold a 17-16 FD edge & have a surprising 317-272 yd edge with
an avg score of 21-14 7 are 7-1 ATS in non-div play TY. The Steelers
currently possess a half game lead over the Browns in the NFC North & have
a Monday road game vs the Bucs up next. Cowher & Co should be in a surly
jaw jutting mood here & they are taking on a Carolina team that was shut
out by Atlanta, only had 234 yds of offense vs Cleveland & while they did
gain 401 yds LW it was vs Cincy & they did have a 2 yd fumble ret, 61 & 87
yd punt returns for TD’s which helped make things look worse than they
really were. At the same time Pittsburgh did lose 24-6 but 21 of Houston’s
points were defensive returns for TD’s. The Steelers actually outgained the
Texans 422-47 & Houston only had THREE FIRST DOWNS & yet still scrambled
out with the win. Pittsburgh takes care of business. FORECAST: PITTSBURGH
27 Carolina 6
OTHER GAMES:
NMIAMI 27 Oakland 17 - Miami is off a Monday Night game vs the Bears &
those results are unavailable. These teams met LY as Miami won 18-15 as a 1
pt HF. The Dolphins ended the game with 19-12 FD & 359-216 yd edges. Miami
has always been proud of its defense especially at home where the Dolphins
have a 21-13 FD advantage & a 356-214 yd edge with an avg score of 28-12.
The Raider offense will be a formidable challenge as Rich Gannon has thrown
for over 300 yds in 10 games TY & on the road they hold a 24-21 FD edge &
are outgaining teams 433-328 with an avg score of 29-19. This is a tough
stretch for the Raider defense as although they are #3 in run defense they
face Ricky Williams, Clinton Portis & our Offensive MVP, Priest Holmes, in
what HC Mike Callahan called a murderers row of rushers. The Dolphins
defense will look to play a physical game vs the Raider WR’s trying to keep
them out of a passing rhythm while keeping Ricky Williams on the field to
control the clock & Rich Gannon.
NY Jets 24 CHICAGO 13 - The Bears are off LW’s Monday Night game & those
results are unavailable. These teams last encountered each other in 2000
when the Jets pushed 17-10 as a 7 pt HF. This may be a flat spot for the
Jets as they are off a Monday Night game vs the Raiders & a home game vs
Denver & have the Patriots & Packers on deck. The Jets are 6-1 ATS the last
7 away games on artificial turf. The Jets have the #19 pass offense over
the last 4 weeks right now avg 229 ypg (68%) with an 8-2 ratio behind Chad
Pennington. The Bears have the #29 pass defense allowing 280 ypg passing
(59%) with an 8-4 ratio. Offensively the Bears have the #17 pass offense
over the last 4 weeks throwing for 237 ypg with a 7-2 ratio & as the season
wears on so does the pain in QB Jim Miller’s tendonitis inflamed shoulder.
The Jets have held their own lately but are #22 in pass defense with 241
ypg pass (66%) with a 4-4 ratio. The Jets are 6-0-1 ATS the last 7 & are
fighting for their post season lives while the Bears are coming off a MNF
game having put their all into that game in an effort to gain national
respectability. The Jets are a very healthy team right now especially
compared to the Bears who have had to place 10 players on IR TY & Brian
Urlacher has had some issues with a neck stinger and Pennington should
enjoy the step down in competition here.
CINCINNATI 17 Jacksonville 14 - LY in Cincinnati the Jaguars won 14-10 as a
1 pt AF finishing with 17-12 FD & 255-200 yd edges. The home team is 8-3-1
ATS in this series. The Bengals have not had much of a home field advantage
as they are 0-6 SU & ATS at home TY. The Jaguars on the road have not fared
better either as they are 0-7 ATS as an AF in that role. Over the last 4
weeks the Bengals have put up solid numbers on one side of the ball at
least as their #10 offense shows that despite their 1-12 record & #22
defense they have not given up on the season. The Jaguars have been the
very example of parity TY beating the Eagles only to lose Houston & are
currently #27 offensively & #27 defensively over the last 4 weeks. The
Jaguars do have division rivals Tennessee & Indianapolis up next & may be
looking ahead a bit here hoping to play the spoiler role as they have
pretty much been eliminated from the playoffs. The Bengals are desperate to
get to 3 wins so they can escape the tag of the worst team in franchise
history. Yes, the Bengals have not had much luck at home TY but in addition
to playing well offensively lately they are a cold weather team hosting
warm weather team that doesn’t have much left to play for.
Indianapolis 21 CLEVELAND 20 - The last time these teams met was in ‘99
when the Colts beat the injury depleted Browns 29-28 but failed to cover as
a 13’ pt AF. CLE is 6-1 ATS hosting turf teams. This game has the Browns OC
Bruce Arians up against his former team the Colts. The Colts are 5-11 ATS
the L/16 on grass. The Browns are 6-1 ATS hosting art turf teams. In AFC
play outside the division the Colts are 3-2 SU but 1-4 ATS & hold a 23-18
FD edge with a 354-329 yd edge but have been outscored 22-19 on avg. The
Browns are 4-1 SU & ATS & hold a 21-16 FD with a 359-292 yd edge & have
outscored foes 30-25 on avg. The Browns kept their slim playoff hopes alive
with a 50 yd TD pass LW vs the Jags giving us a 3* Late Phone Selection
Winner on the Over LW and while the Colts are the better team and a Browns
win would not surprise us.
Tampa Bay 24 DETROIT 7 - This is another division rivalry that has ended
due to the NFL realignment. Tampa Bay is a surprising 2-7 as an AF vs the
Lions. The dog is 8-2 ATS the last 10 in the series. Since this technically
counts as a non-div game the Bucs are 21-9-1 vs non-division teams since
1999. The Bucs have climbed to the #11 pass offense over the last 4 weeks
but are only #28 in rushing with 82 ypg (3.5). QB Brad Johnson has done a
solid job as the Bucs QB & he has thrown for 250 ypg (65%) with a 15-1
ratio over the last 5 games. This is despite an OL that not been performing
well TY allowing 30 sacks so far TY. The Detroit defense over the last 5
games has allowed 278 ypg passing (64%) with a 10-3 ratio. This is a
potential flat spot for the Bucs as the last time they were off a big home
win was vs the Packers & the following week they lost on the road to the
Saints. However, Joey Harrington is a very young QB right now & he will
make mistakes vs a Bucs defense that is #1 in pass defense for the year.
The Buc defense simply has too much talent here & we see them continuing
their trend of scoring a defensive TD despite an obvious flat spot.
Baltimore 14 HOUSTON 12 - Houston is off a misleading final from LW vs the
Steelers having won 24-6. At the end of the game the Steelers had 24-3 FD &
422-47 yd edges constructed on a 39:41 to 20:19 TOP edge. David Carr
finished with 33 yds (30%) passing as the Texan defense scored 21 points by
itself off of 2 int’s & a fumble. The Ravens are 10-5 ATS vs non-division
teams & TY vs non-div AFC teams have been outFD’d 21-13 & outgained 371-218
but have managed to keep the score close with a 19-18 scoring deficit. The
Texans have been outFD’d 21-13 & outgained 342-225 but have been outscored
27-14 in non-div AFC play. The Ravens have proved to be a scrappy team TY
but with Houston’s upset of PIT last week, there really isn’t any line
value and we’ll let the linesmakers decide.
NEW ORLEANS 35 Minnesota 24 - The Vikings played the Packers LW on Sunday
Night & those results were not in as we went to press. These teams met LY
with the Saints winning 28-15 as a 4 pt HF. The Saints had a 20-16 FD
advantage & a 370-340 yd edge The Saints have a 5-2 ATS record in this
series & prior to LW the Vikings were 5-12 ATS on the road the last 17 &
the last time they won a road game SU was Thanksgiving of 2000. The Saints
are 2-6-1 ATS as a HF the last 9 as a HF. Versus non-div foes the Vikings
have split the FD’s 22-22 but been outgained 401-383 with an avg score of
32-21. The Saints have split their FD’s 20-20 & been outgained 364-351 but
have outscored their non-div opponents on avg 31-25. LW Aaron Brooks came
out in the 3Q due to his arm injury from the previous week & his status in
unknown (call a Full Service Line for an update on his status) but Jake
Delhomme knows the offense well as his 103 yds passing (87%) in relief
showed & Deuce McAllister is healthier off his ankle sprain as he showed in
rushing for 127 yds (4.2) & 3 TD’s LW. This should be a high scoring affair
but with the Saints fighting for a playoff spot they get the edge here.
PHILADELPHIA 17 Washington 16 - The first meeting between these 2 TY was on
Monday Night as the nation watched to see how effective the Spurrier Fun &
Gun would do vs a quality defensive secondary. The answer came in the form
of the Eagles winning 37-7 as a 3 pt AF. The Eagles earned a 22-11 FD edge
& an impressive 451-179 yd edge as the defense limited the Redskins to 119
yds passing (52%) with a 0-2 ratio. The Redskins on the road have been
outFD’d 20-18 & outgained 308-278 while being outscored 20-15. The Eagles
at home have outFD’d foes 20-16 & outgained them 376-291 with a avg 25-14
score. They are 2-6 ATS in their final home game while the Redskins are 3-9
ATS in their final road game. Steve Spurrier has accepted the fact that his
team is out of playoff contention & has decided to evaluate the talent he
has on hand TY reducing RB Stephen Davis’s role & looking at RB Ladell
Betts. The Eagles however are fighting with the Bucs & Packers for the 1st
round bye. We see the key here being Washington’s DC Lewis vs QB Feeley
being made to throw and we take the points.
DENVER 24 Kansas City 14 - The 1st game between these teams TY went to OT
with Denver needing TE Shannon Sharpe’s record setting 214 yds receiving &
Brian Griese’s career high 376 yds pass (60%) with a 2-0 ratio to come from
a 14 pt deficit and win SU 37-34. The Chiefs are now 6-1-1 ATS in the
series. They are also back in their preferred role of AD where they are
12-4 ATS the last 16 & they are 11-5 ATS as a division AD. Over the last 4
weeks the Chiefs have the #2 offense & the #8 defense & are +7 in
turnovers. The Broncos are #9 in offense & #11 in defense & are -7 in
turnovers & LW they took 7 possessions inside the Jets 32 but were only
able to come away with 13 points. The Chiefs are off 2 blowout wins vs a
very banged up Cardinals team & a Rams team that was hurt by poor special
teams play & a 42 yd fumble return. LW at the half Trent Green only passed
for 34 yds (37%) as Priest Holmes earned 103 yds (6.4). The Broncos have
now lost 3 straight & at 4-6 in conference play are in serious danger of
falling out of the playoffs. We look for the Broncos to end that slide here.
Green Bay 27 SAN FRANCISCO 24 - The Packers are off LW’s Sunday Night game
vs the Vikings & those results were not available at presstime. The last
time these teams met in the regular season was in 2000 when the Packers won
SU but failed to cover 31-28 as a 4 pt HF. Both teams have clinched their
respective divisions & are now fighting for a possible 1st round bye. This
is essentially a playoff game for all intents and purposes as this will
have serious implications as to home field advantage later. Including
playoffs, the Packers are 8-2-1 ATS in this series. In non-div NFC games TY
these teams are pretty even except for a key factor. Packers are 3-2 SU but
1-4 ATS TY in these games. They outFD’d foes 20-18 & outgained them 330-310
with an avg score of 23-22 in the opponents favor. The most interesting
factor is that in these games Packers allowed 141 ypg rushing (4.6 ypc).
The 49ers are 3-2 SU & 1-3-1 ATS & outFD’d foes 22-18 & outgained them
375-320 with an avg score of 25-22 in the opponents favor. The Packers, as
noted, above they have had some success vs the Niners unlike previous trips
to Minnesota & Tampa where they have struggled in the past.
NY GIANTS 16 Dallas 10 - In the first meeting the Giants went into Dallas &
won 21-17 as a 1 pt AF. The Cowboys had a 20-16 FD edge & outgained the
Giants 340-316 as HC Jim Fassell took over the play calling for the Giants
offense. The home team is 16-7 in this series & the dog is 7-2 when this
game is played in NY. The Giants are 1-7-1 ATS as a HF the last 9 in that
role. The Giants at home have a 22-16 FD edge & have outgained their
opponents 343-285 but have been outscored 18-17. The Cowboys on the road
have been outFD’d 18-15 & outgained 317-272 while being outscored 18-9.
This will also be the Cowboys first road game since November 17th & they
are 1-16 SU & 5-12 ATS as an AD of 5 or more. While the Giants have not
fared well in the role of favorite side with them here as they always seem
to play better when their backs are slammed up vs the wall.
New England at TENNESSEE - Monday Night. These teams have not met since
1998 & only 4 times since 1989. Both teams are still in the playoff fight
after defeating division rivals LW. The winner will still be very much
alive with the Patriots finishing out their season vs the Jets & Dolphins
at home. The Titans close the year out with road trips to Jacksonville &
Houston. Both teams are pretty similar in standings with the Pat’s having
the #15 offense & defense while the Titans possess the #17 offense & #19
defense. Who will we choose? Get the Monday Night Magic Winner after 5:00
p.m. EST.
PLAYOFF OUTLOOK Below is our look at each contenders' playoff chances. We
rank them in order of their chances of making the playoffs.
NFC
1. Philadelphia (10-3) Washington, at Dallas, at NY Giants The Eagles
control their own destiny, if they win the last 3 games they will have home
field advantage for the playoffs as they would be undefeated in the NFC and
hold the tie-breaker vs Tampa Bay with their win over the Bucs and their
better NFC record gives them an edge over Green Bay.
2. Tampa Bay (10-3) at Detroit, Pittsburgh, at Chicago The Bucs have a good
shot at winning their last 3 games of the season and will be favored in all
3. Should Philly slip up somewhere they would be able to grab home field
advantage for the playoffs but it could be the 3rd straight year they have
to travel to Philly in the playoffs if they meet them in the NFC Title game.
3. Green Bay (9-3) Minnesota, at San Francisco, Buffalo, at NY Jets The
Packers have a pivotal game this week vs San Francisco where a loss would
drop either team from the race for the home field advantage. Philly would
hold the better record and Tampa Bay beat them head on. They have to finish
ahead of both to get home field advantage in the playoffs. They, of course,
have wrapped up their division.
4. San Francisco (9-4) Green Bay, at Arizona, at St Louis The Niners are a
game back of the top 3 but could improve their chances with a victory over
Green Bay this week. Should they win there they will be favored in their
final 2 games and have a good shot at a 12-4 finish. They did lose to
Philadelphia costing them that tie-breaker but have already clinched the
division and are in the playoffs.
5. New Orleans (9-4) Minnesota, at Cincinnati, Carolina The Saints will be
favored in their final 3 games and a 12-4 finish is probable. They need
only one Tampa Bay loss to wrap up the division should they win their last
3 as they beat the Bucs’ twice during the regular season and own the
tie-breaker.
6. Atlanta (8-4-1) Seattle, Detroit, at Cleveland The Falcons’ magic number
is two against the Giants to make the playoffs. Any combination of two
Atlanta wins and two Giants losses put them into the post season. They are
a longshot for their division but should be favored in their final 3 games
but of course would need Tampa Bay to lose twice and the Saints to lose once.
7. NY Giants (7-6) Dallas, at Indianapolis, Philadelphia The Giants have to
win out and hope Atlanta loses twice to be able to make the post season.
They seem to play better when the pressure is on, however, so don’t
discount them yet.
AFC
1. Oakland (9-4) at Miami, Denver, Kansas City The Raiders are now 9-4 with
the best record in the AFC and have an outstanding AFC record of 7-2. This
week’s game is big but they get their final two at home and an 11-5 record
will probably be good enough for home field advantage for the AFC. They
have a better AFC record than Indianapolis.
2. Indianapolis (8-5) at Cleveland, NY Giants, Jacksonville The Colts lost
last week and have a tough game this week at Cleveland but then finish at
home vs the Giants and Jacksonville and have a great shot at winning the 3
for an 11-5 finish. Their 6-4 AFC record hurts them but they could be home
for the first round of the playoffs.
3. New England (8-5) at Tennessee, NY Jets, Miami The defending Super Bowl
Champs have a tough game this week Monday Night at Tennessee but if they
win there they have a decent shot at finishing at the top of the AFC East
with an 11-5 record as they would be favored in their final two both at
home. The Pats will likely win the division in the season finale when they
host Miami in the cold of New England.
4. Miami (7-5) Chicago, Oakland, at Minnesota, at New England While the
Dolphins should be battling the Patriots to the end, it will be tough for
them to win in the cold of Foxboro in the season finale but should they
pull the upset there then Miami would win the division or should at least
make it as a Wildcard.
5. Tennessee (8-5) New England, at Jacksonville, at Houston The Titans
actually have the edge over Indianapolis in the division but have a tough
game this week against New England and a deceptively tough one at
Jacksonville the next week. Should they win both of those, Tennessee would
win the AFC South as they hold the tie-breaker over Indianapolis.
6. Pittsburgh (7-5-1) Carolina, at Tampa Bay, Baltimore The Steelers do
have a tough game at Tampa Bay but should be able win at home vs Carolina
and Baltimore and simply need to win their division and stay ahead of
Cleveland to make the playoffs. They will have a 1st round playoff game.
7. Cleveland (7-6) Indianapolis, at Baltimore, Atlanta We do expect the
Browns to drop possibly one of the last 3 games but if they win out they
could win their division as Pittsburgh will have a tough game at Tampa Bay
next week. We put the Browns at #7 not because we think they have a shot at
the Wildcard but because they have the best shot at winning the division
among the Wildcard entrants as they are only a half game behind Pittsburgh.
If the Browns win out, they will win the division.
8. Denver (7-6) Kansas City, at Oakland, Arizona Denver does have a poor
AFC record (4-6) but gets KC and Arizona at home and a road trip to
Oakland. It looks like a 9-7 finish for the Broncos and last week’s loss
probably leaves them on the outside looking in.
9. San Diego (8-5) at Buffalo, at Kansas City, Seattle The Chargers
probably will be favored in two of their last 3 games. They have a better
AFC record than Denver does but are also on the outside looking in.
10. NY Jets (7-6) at Chicago, at New England, Green Bay The Jets won last
week keeping their slim playoff hopes alive. They should win this week in
Chicago but finish at New England and hosting Green Bay which makes it very
difficult for them to get to the playoffs. They have pulled some upsets in
recent weeks, however, they are still alive.
11. Kansas City (7-6) at Denver, San Diego, at Oakland The Chiefs have to
play at Denver and at Oakland in their final 3 weeks and also host San
Diego. We’ll put them in the longshot category at this point.