Late Season Dogs aBarking

[frankb03]

In the NFL home dogs do extremely well from week 15 and later. Since 1989 home dogs have covered 58.8% Conversely prior to week 15 home dogs only cover 51.1% It's no secret that dogs took a beating last season. Prior to last season the last time late season dogs had a losing season was 1995. They finished 9-10 that season. Except for the 2005 season, late season home dogs never finished worse than 1 game below .500.

Small dogs of +3.5 or less perform very well at 64.4%

Avoid home dogs off a win. These dogs are a tick about 50% Leaving dogs off a loss at 61.5%

Afraid to play shitty home dogs late in the season? Don't! Teams below .250 cover better than 66% of these games.


MUST WIN

Must win games are for SUCKERS. Over the last 3 weeks we'll read time after time about teams in a must win game. Don't be suckered. Teams are in must win situations because they aren't a top caliber team. They are often STRUGGLING to make the playoffs.

Once again from week 15 and later favorites with between 6 and 9 wins vs a losing team cover a very poor 37.1% of their must win games and 35.5% as a road favorite. They only win SU 61% of the games.

While we are at it don't think these favorites by playing conservative the games play UNDER. A very slight edge to the OVER.

In games with a small favorite of -4 or less if you are thinking the favorite should easily cover the small number you couldn't be more wrong. Those favorites cover a extremely poor 27.5% In those same games don't be surprised to see the favorite lose SU. The lose 54.2% of the games with the home team at exactly 50%

Moral? Must win games are for losing teams.

[frankb03]

Incidently, tonight Seattle falls into a MUST WIN situation.

Broncos
Bills
Steelers
Patriots
Saints
Jaguars

fill out the rest of this weeks schedule.

Denver, Buffalo, Pitt and Jax all at -4 or lower.

[griffey_mojo]

More great info posted.

Thanks Frank

[frankb03]

More great info posted.

Thanks Frank

I knew you'd like it. We both love them dawgs.

[moondog22]

thanks for the great info frank

[ULikeApples]

Incidently, tonight Seattle falls into a MUST WIN situation.

Broncos
Bills
Steelers
Patriots
Saints
Jaguars

fill out the rest of this weeks schedule.

Denver, Buffalo, Pitt and Jax all at -4 or lower.

Not trying to split hairs, but how was Seattle tonight in a must win situation? I know a win clinched the division, but they still only need 1 win in their last two games. The dog covered and all, but I wouldn't call it a "must win."

[frankb03]

Not trying to split hairs, but how was Seattle tonight in a must win situation? I know a win clinched the division, but they still only need 1 win in their last two games. The dog covered and all, but I wouldn't call it a "must win."

I hear what you are saying. Unfortunately historical data has no way of knowing where teams stand in their division. That being said there's no way Seattle wants to enter the post season playing poorly.

A loss is a loss is a loss.

[frankb03]

Not trying to split hairs, but how was Seattle tonight in a must win situation? I know a win clinched the division, but they still only need 1 win in their last two games. The dog covered and all, but I wouldn't call it a "must win."

One more point. What about playing for a bye? What about playing for home field? They are still in a must win situation.

[ULikeApples]

One more point. What about playing for a bye? What about playing for home field? They are still in a must win situation.

They may have incentive, but a "must win" to me if "lose the game and your season is over." That was actually the case for SF here. If they lost, they had no postseason chance mathmatically.

I definitely agree that dogs are gonna be hitting here, but I just don't know if the "must win" angle fits here. Anyway, GL!

[GOLDENGREEK]

great stuff frank

[kenman64]

Small dogs of +3.5 or less perform very well at 64.4%

Avoid home dogs off a win. These dogs are a tick about 50% Leaving dogs off a loss at 61.5%


MUST WIN

Must win games are for SUCKERS. Over the last 3 weeks we'll read time after time about teams in a must win game. Don't be suckered. Teams are in must win situations because they aren't a top caliber team. They are often STRUGGLING to make the playoffs.

In games with a small favorite of -4 or less if you are thinking the favorite should easily cover the small number you couldn't be more wrong. Those favorites cover a extremely poor 27.5% In those same games don't be surprised to see the favorite lose SU. The lose 54.2% of the games with the home team at exactly 50%

Moral? Must win games are for losing teams.

What your take on DAL-3.5 @ATL ... must win trend and small home dog fit ATL, small fav fix DAL???

[okolepuka]

what about denver/arizona? arizona covered as adog. getting 2 1/2. is that a fade? denveer in a must win situation. thanks frank for all your hard work. okes

[Larry29]

Thanks for the info. Great post to try and help others with less experience at least safe money by staying off these "must win" games.

I also agree that the teams playing with momentum at the end of the season usually make it to the Super Bowl. Unless something happens in the next 2 weeks to change things, it looks like a NO/SD Super Bowl to me and I'd go with the OVER.

[frankb03]

What your take on DAL-3.5 @ATL ... must win trend and small home dog fit ATL, small fav fix DAL???

I liked Atlanta before I did this research last night. Falcons will be a play for me.

[Spark]

Nice work Frank ...

Thanks