TP's Big Monday Night Football Play

[Tomorrows Paper]

Sheffield United played two ways:

+0.5 (-189)
pk +101

It goes without saying that I don't expect Sheffied to lose. Actually, even though the juice is high, I like the +0.5 play better because of Villa's tendency to draw (9 draws in 16 games, including 6 in 8 road games).
Sheffield, despite fighting relegation, is in better form than Villa at the moment. They have won two in a row, and they face an Aston Villa team that has won only two of their last 10.
Aston Villa are averaging under a goal per game away from home, and the Blades are a pretty good defensive team. Sheffield have lost at home only to #1 Man U., #2 Chelsea, and #7 Reading.
In addition, Villa have won only one road game all season, a somewhat fluky win at Everton. They are also their emotional leader and leading scorer Gareth Barry, who is suspended for this game.

Back-to-back wins over Watford and Charlton have lifted United out of the relegation zone and instilled belief they can survive.

``We now believe in ourselves, and the fans do,'' added Warnock. ``We also know we can score goals, even if they are late on as we have been doing recently.

``But the lads know if they keep going to the end then they will always have a chance of getting a result, even if people think we're not going to get one.''

Claude Davis, Alan Quinn, Michael Tonge and Chris Armstrong are all back in training after recent injury problems and pushing for a place in the 16 to face Villa.

Good luck everyone!

[Tomorrows Paper]

And now to the kind of football most of you find more interesting:

NFL Sides (34-24, +15.33 units)
NFL Totals (17-14-1, +6.23 units)

I don’t generally write up NFL games - generally I fade the public, play on teams who looked bad the week before, bet teams nobody else wants to bet, etc. But, I have a really strong opinion for this game, so, here goes.

I really like the Rams to win this game outright. Marc Bulger is the leader of this team, and he accused his team of quitting last week, which was followed by the proverbial “team meeting.” Now, there is no telling if that is good news or bad news, but the simple fact of the matter is that the Bears are in no shape to be laying this many points in this game.
Let’s focus on the Bears defense, which is its strength, and is a unit that some regard as the best in the NFL. “Some” are wrong. This defense at 100% is not on the same level as the Ravens. Particularly, they are only mediocre against the rush - 12th in the NFL - but then you consider all the injuries, and this defense is liable to get gashed by the most explosive team it has played this season. The loss of Tommie Harris simply cannot be ignored, as he has actually been the Bears’ MVP this season. The defense is also missing Pro Bowl DB Mike Brown (has been out for almost two months). Two other DBs, Nathan Vasher and Todd Johnson, are also expected to miss, as is LB Leon Joe.
People forget, but St. Louis still has a balanced, high-powered offense. All the WRs are finally healthy again, and Bulger should be able to move the ball when necessary, though Steven Jackson will be doing the bulk of the work - he’s already above 1,000 yards on the year). Look at last week’s game - a game Chicago was 100% motivated to play, at home, and much healthier. The Bears allowed 5.5 yards per rush, and 193 total rushing yards, to a Vikings offense which has been among the most inept in the NFL all year.
The Pace injury hurts, but the Rams have now had a couple weeks to break in new linemen. Since I don’t expect the Bears defense to create the same pressure they normally do, I don’t really think the Rams offensive line will have any problems. The Bears actually give up a good amount of yards, but capitalize on turnovers. Bulger is a good decision maker, and he won’t ruin his team’s chances.
Say what you want about the Rams defense, but they are going to be able to stack the line and make Grossman beat them. If he does, well, I’ll just lose. Grossman has had a QB rating of 37 or below four of his last seven games, including his incredible 1.3 rating last week in the 108-yard, 6 first down outburst against Minnesota.
The Bears could be a little satisfied after clinching the division last week, and I think they could run into a buzz saw in the Edwards Jones Dome (Bears have only played one game in a dome this season - a 19-16 win at Minnesota which was a total collapse by the Vikings), as they face a Rams team that can easily win out (check the schedule) if they win this game. The Rams circle the wagons and win outright.

I’ll post official plays later, just wanted to go ahead and get this out there.

Oh yeah, two other things I like. The line has moved 9 cents at Pinnacle towards Chicago since I started writing this, as people who got killed today try to chase and hammer the Bears. Also, I like that the odds makers have made this number 6/6.5 instead of 7/7.5. The fact that they set this line below a touchdown tells me they are willing to take all kinds of public action on Chicago.

[LVJimmy]

like the pick TP...go Rams!

[kbsooner21]

Best of luck tonight Paper!

[Chado1]

GL with the RAMS!!!

I think I will buy the point so that I got +7

[jmarty6969]

gl on soccer my man loves sheffefield today also and he is usally money throw some on the moneyline if u can i played it at a pick and moneyline

[Moose21]

Good luck with your big play T.P. I like it 2.

[BillMill71]

Good Luck TP

[jt4545]

Gl T.P.

[Kaptain]

gl TP---kapt

[Tomorrows Paper]

Well, Sheffield did enough for a small profit, but they gave up two frustrating goals that led to a 2-2 draw. Oh well.
Official plays for tonight:

3* Rams +6.5 (-106)
2* Rams Team Total Over 17.5 (+100)

Good luck everyone.

[kbsooner21]

Let's get those Rams in bud