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Here is my 2003 Preseason Top 40. Two quick notes: First of all, my preseason rankings are not my power ratings. As an example - LSU is not rated in the Top 20 in any of my 7 sets of power ratings, but due to a manageable schedule I have them #11 overall and two of my sets of ratings show them going 12-0. My talent ratings only rate Hawaii #52 overall, but they made the list due to their softer schedule as they face just one of my Top 25 teams (USC). My Top 25 is based on how I project the teams to finish in the final rankings and these Top 25’s have always done quite well. Last year, of my Top 25 teams, 24 of them had records good enough to become bowl eligible. Of the Top 40 teams, an amazing 35 of the 40 were bowl eligible (including 32 of the top 34). While no one had Ohio St. winning the national title last year, I am happy to report that I had Ohio St. rated higher than any other preseason magazine coming into the year. These rankings reflect not only talent, but the strength of schedule and how each team should finish the season.
1. Ohio St. - The defending national champs return all 11 starters on offense, 6 more on defense and have the Heisman frontrunner in RB Maurice Clarett. They will be favored in their first 11 games and then they travel to Ann Arbor in what could be a battle of the unbeatens. Only one team in the country ranks in my Top 25 in all 8 position categories (see pages 12-15) and that is the Buckeyes. Last year the team depended on its defense, but this year they will have a potent offense to go along with their Top-10 defense. They have 8 home games this year and make just 4 road trips. Tressel has proven he knows how to win it all (5 championships at 1A & 1AA).
2. Oklahoma - The Sooners are loaded once again and will try to grab their 2nd national title in 4 years under Stoops. OU has my #1-rated defense this year and that makes them very dangerous. They should be favored in all 12 games this year with the biggest test being Texas (in the Cotton Bowl), but OU has won 3 straight in that series. The non-conference schedule is manageable and they have only 4 games on opponents’ home fields this year. OU has won the Rose, Cotton and Orange Bowls. Now can they win the Sugar Bowl?
3. Texas - I know, Mack Brown can’t win the big game. The same thing was said about both Bobby Bowden and Tom Osborne for years before they finally broke through. Texas has the #2 defense in the country and will be favored in all their games this year with the exception of the Oklahoma game at the Cotton Bowl. They are loaded with VHTs on both sides of the ball, thanks to Brown’s recruiting prowess. Now can they get past the Sooners?
4. Michigan - Michigan is one of the few teams in the country that rank in my Top 10 in both offense (#4) and defense (#9). I have the Wolverines favored in their first 11, which would set the scene for a huge game vs. Ohio St. This would bring back memories of some of the undefeated matchups between Bo and Woody in this rivalry. John Navarre could be this year’s Carson Palmer (5th-year senior who has a huge year). This team is solid along the lines.
5. Pittsburgh - This team reminds me of last year’s Ohio St. team. The Buckeyes were not even in the preseason Top 10, nor were they rated higher than 9 by anyone in the country except for my #7 preseason ranking. I mentioned last year that OSU did not rank in my Top 10 in terms of talent, but 3 of my 7 sets of Power Ratings had them going undefeated. You can make that same exact statement about the Panthers this year. They host 3 Top 10-caliber teams in Miami, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, but are capable of winning those 3 and going undefeated.
6. Virginia Tech - The Hokies were supposed to be a year away from contending last season but opened 8-0 and were #3 in the country at one point. They then lost 4 games down the stretch. This year they are ready to contend for the title. They have my #5-rated defense and a much-improved offense. They get Miami in Blacksburg in early November (should be cold) and their road game vs. Pitt the next week will determine whether they can go unbeaten. The Hokies will be favored in the rest of their games. They rank in my Top 25 in 7-of-8 position categories and came close in the other category.
7. Miami, Fl. - How tough is this Big East?? How can I possibly rate the Hurricanes 3rd in the league? Well this ranking tells you I consider them a national title contender. They have my #3-rated offense and #7-rated defense. The Hurricanes do have a couple of tough trips in November to cold-weather sites vs. Top 10 teams (VT and Pitt). They will also have to battle Florida St. on the road and Florida and Tennessee at home. This team has set a record for the amount of NFL draft picks overall in the last three years, but still has a lot of talent left.
8. Tennessee - Here is a value team for this year. The Vols were wiped out by injuries last year, but get most of those injured players back this year along with their replacements. Look for a much better year from QB Casey Clausen as he and his offensive mates will be healthier, and on defense, the LBs could be special. They do have to travel to the Swamp and also face Miami on the road, but are my favorite to win the SEC.
9. Washington - The Huskies have my #7-rated offense and #19-rated defense and only face the 48th-toughest schedule this year. Their toughest game of the season is the opener at Ohio St., but they are capable of winning the rest of their games down the stretch. They get to host USC, which looks like the key matchup in the Pac 10. They also have a veteran senior QB, which is usually the right formula for winning the Pac 10.
10. USC - The Trojans were the strongest team in the country down the stretch last year that did not play in the national title game, as they wiped out UCLA, Notre Dame and Iowa by a combined 134-51 margin. They do lose 10 starters including QB Carson Palmer, but I definitely took notice that two of my 7 sets of power ratings have them the #1-rated team in the NCAA! Just like last year they have a killer schedule with trips to Notre Dame, Auburn, Arizona St. and Washington.
11. LSU - Everyone is looking for this year’s Ohio St., and just like I mentioned in the Pitt writeup, this could be one of the contenders. None of my 7 sets of Power Ratings list the Tigers in the Top 10, but two have them going a perfect 12-0. Their toughest road trips are to Alabama and Mississippi, but both of those are winnable. They only face the 47th-toughest schedule and most of their toughest games are at home in Death Valley.
12. Nebraska - Last year was a record-breaking year, but not the kind of records that NU wanted. Their streak of being ranked in the Top 25 for 348 weeks, as well as their streak of 33 years of 9-or-more wins, both went by the wayside. I think Jamaal Lord will do a fine job guiding a much more potent NU offense. The Blackshirt defense should regain its swagger. Solich gets off the hot seat as NU returns to the top.
13. Florida St. - If not for last year, I definitely would have ranked FSU in the Top 10 and rated them a major national title contender. As I write the magazine, there is an ongoing NCAA investigation. Some players may be suspended in the next few months. Last year I thought they would return to the top but they finished just 9-5. I think Chris Rix will do a fine job. This team does have my #5-rated offense and #8-rated defense. If they regain their swagger, they could go undefeated, even with road trips to Florida and Notre Dame.
14. Kansas St. - The Wildcats were clearly one of the best teams in the NCAA down the stretch last year. For the season they outscored their foes by an average of 44.8-11.8!!!! QB Ell Roberson is a Heisman candidate and Snyder always relies on JUCO’s, so having 12 starters back is a lot for his team. KSU ranks in my Top 15 on both sides of the ball and needs to win at Texas and Nebraska to vault into national title contention. They will be favored in their other 11 games.
15. Auburn - The Tigers rank in my Top 10 in terms of talent this year, with the best set of RBs in the land. They have my #8 offense with a veteran QB, and a tough “D” led by my #4 set of linebackers. The road team dominates in the series with Georgia, so playing, “Between the Hedges” may not turn out to be that bad. They also have road trips to LSU and Arkansas lurking.
16. NC State - The Wolfpack had a nice finish last year whipping Florida St. and Notre Dame by a combined 45-13 in the last 2 games. QB Philip Rivers leads my #10 offense and the defense looks solid. They have road trips to Ohio St. and Florida St., but have shown they can knock off the big boys.
17. Georgia - The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent from last year’s #3-ranked team, but are still loaded. They do have a tough schedule with LSU and Tennessee on the road, along with their yearly trip to Jacksonville to face Richt’s last remaining stumbling block (the Gators). Still, the Dawgs should have another big year.
18. Maryland - The Terps have the talent (#12 overall) and the schedule (#61) to make some noise. They should be favored in 10-of-12 games and need a road win vs. Florida St. or NC St. to move up. Fear the Turtle.
19. Notre Dame - The Irish have my #4-rated defense, and as they showed last year, they can play with anyone under Willingham. They have to play Michigan, Purdue and Pitt all on the road, but should be strong overall.
20. Purdue - The Boilermakers led the Big 10 in offense and defense, but were just 6-6 during the regular season due to turnovers. This year they are loaded and have the talent to win the Big 10, but must face Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio St. all on the road.
21. Wisconsin - The Badgers have their best team in 4 years and a schedule to challenge for the Big 10 title. They have a soft non-conference slate, avoid Michigan and host Ohio St. Alvarez knows a thing or two (or three) about getting to and winning Rose Bowls (he has won 3).
22. Mississippi - Eli Manning guides the best Rebel edition in over a decade. They have 5 road games this year and will be favored in 3 of them, so it could be a big year if they take care of business at home.
23. Arkansas - The Razorbacks ended up in the SEC title game as I projected last year. They could repeat with my #10-rated defense, which includes an excellent set of DBs. They do have 4 tough road games this year to Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU, but could surprise yet again.
24. Penn St. - The Lions may suffer from Draft Day Party Hangover, and may get fewer friendly bounces after being +14 last year in turnovers. They still have plenty of talent, but topping last year’s 9-3 regular season will be tough.
25. TCU - The Frogs were the best team in CUSA last year and even took home the Liberty Bowl trophy. They have a top-notch defense and if QB Tye Gunn stays healthy, the offense could help them to a 2nd straight CUSA title.
26. Hawaii - The Warriors are only my #52 team in terms of talent, but play in the WAC and will rack up a lot of wins. They are assured of at least a berth in the Hawaii Bowl if eligible.
27. Virginia - Al Groh did a tremendous job with a very young team last year. This year those very talented players have experience. They add a lot more VHTs and will be an ACC contender.
28. UCLA - The Bruins do have a rookie head coach, but he inherits a talented team that was hurt by injuries last year. They do have 4 very tough road games vs. Colorado, Oklahoma, Washington St. and USC, but they will do fine.
29. Colorado St. - Sonny Lubick has done a tremendous job here and I rate his squad as my favorite to get to yet another Liberty Bowl. QB Bradlee Van Pelt should lead a potent offense.
30. Boise St. - Ryan Dinwiddie was sensational when healthy last year. This team is strong year-in and year-out. Despite just 3 starters returning on offense, they will be potent. The “D” has 7 starters returning.
31. Oregon St. - Despite the coaching change, OSU has QB Anderson and RB Jackson among 9 starters returning on offense. Their defense can be nasty and looks solid again.
32. Florida - I have NEVER picked the Gators anywhere near this low in the rankings, but they have a tough schedule with road trips to Miami, LSU, Arkansas, S. Carolina and Georgia in Jacksonville. They also face Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida St. at home in a rebuilding year.
33. Iowa - What a great year for the Hawkeyes last year! This year they must replace 11 starters including QB Brad Banks and 5 players who were NFL draft selections. Overall, they are still a solid team even with the losses.
34. Arizona St. - Andrew Walter had a great year despite not starting until the 5th game and having little time to throw. He has a stronger O-Line in front of him this year. ASU takes another step forward.
35. Oklahoma St. - The Cowboys used 2001’s upset of Oklahoma to give them confidence for 2002. They not only upset the Sooners once again, but also won their bowl game. QB Fields and WR Woods give them an explosive offense, and the defense is solid.
36. Minnesota - Once again the Gophers should get off to a great start thanks to a creampuff non-conference schedule. This year they are a little bigger up front on defense and will have a solid offense that continues to make strides in Big 10 play.
37. Fresno St. - The Bulldogs now have an experienced QB and welcome back WR Berrian, who missed last year with an injury. They also have some big boys on the schedule and showed in 2001 that they are capable of knocking off BCS-caliber teams.
38. Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles used to rule in CUSA play, but have not done so for the last 3 years. This year they could return to the top with my #20-rated defense. The offense should be improved with a more veteran signal caller.
39. Missouri - The Tigers have exciting QB Brad Smith and have come close the last few years. Their third year with Gary Pinkel should be their breakthrough year.
40. Air Force - This could be one of Fisher DeBerry’s most experienced and hence, best teams yet. QB Harridge should have a fine senior season, and the defense is much stronger.
1. Ohio St. - The defending national champs return all 11 starters on offense, 6 more on defense and have the Heisman frontrunner in RB Maurice Clarett. They will be favored in their first 11 games and then they travel to Ann Arbor in what could be a battle of the unbeatens. Only one team in the country ranks in my Top 25 in all 8 position categories (see pages 12-15) and that is the Buckeyes. Last year the team depended on its defense, but this year they will have a potent offense to go along with their Top-10 defense. They have 8 home games this year and make just 4 road trips. Tressel has proven he knows how to win it all (5 championships at 1A & 1AA).
2. Oklahoma - The Sooners are loaded once again and will try to grab their 2nd national title in 4 years under Stoops. OU has my #1-rated defense this year and that makes them very dangerous. They should be favored in all 12 games this year with the biggest test being Texas (in the Cotton Bowl), but OU has won 3 straight in that series. The non-conference schedule is manageable and they have only 4 games on opponents’ home fields this year. OU has won the Rose, Cotton and Orange Bowls. Now can they win the Sugar Bowl?
3. Texas - I know, Mack Brown can’t win the big game. The same thing was said about both Bobby Bowden and Tom Osborne for years before they finally broke through. Texas has the #2 defense in the country and will be favored in all their games this year with the exception of the Oklahoma game at the Cotton Bowl. They are loaded with VHTs on both sides of the ball, thanks to Brown’s recruiting prowess. Now can they get past the Sooners?
4. Michigan - Michigan is one of the few teams in the country that rank in my Top 10 in both offense (#4) and defense (#9). I have the Wolverines favored in their first 11, which would set the scene for a huge game vs. Ohio St. This would bring back memories of some of the undefeated matchups between Bo and Woody in this rivalry. John Navarre could be this year’s Carson Palmer (5th-year senior who has a huge year). This team is solid along the lines.
5. Pittsburgh - This team reminds me of last year’s Ohio St. team. The Buckeyes were not even in the preseason Top 10, nor were they rated higher than 9 by anyone in the country except for my #7 preseason ranking. I mentioned last year that OSU did not rank in my Top 10 in terms of talent, but 3 of my 7 sets of Power Ratings had them going undefeated. You can make that same exact statement about the Panthers this year. They host 3 Top 10-caliber teams in Miami, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, but are capable of winning those 3 and going undefeated.
6. Virginia Tech - The Hokies were supposed to be a year away from contending last season but opened 8-0 and were #3 in the country at one point. They then lost 4 games down the stretch. This year they are ready to contend for the title. They have my #5-rated defense and a much-improved offense. They get Miami in Blacksburg in early November (should be cold) and their road game vs. Pitt the next week will determine whether they can go unbeaten. The Hokies will be favored in the rest of their games. They rank in my Top 25 in 7-of-8 position categories and came close in the other category.
7. Miami, Fl. - How tough is this Big East?? How can I possibly rate the Hurricanes 3rd in the league? Well this ranking tells you I consider them a national title contender. They have my #3-rated offense and #7-rated defense. The Hurricanes do have a couple of tough trips in November to cold-weather sites vs. Top 10 teams (VT and Pitt). They will also have to battle Florida St. on the road and Florida and Tennessee at home. This team has set a record for the amount of NFL draft picks overall in the last three years, but still has a lot of talent left.
8. Tennessee - Here is a value team for this year. The Vols were wiped out by injuries last year, but get most of those injured players back this year along with their replacements. Look for a much better year from QB Casey Clausen as he and his offensive mates will be healthier, and on defense, the LBs could be special. They do have to travel to the Swamp and also face Miami on the road, but are my favorite to win the SEC.
9. Washington - The Huskies have my #7-rated offense and #19-rated defense and only face the 48th-toughest schedule this year. Their toughest game of the season is the opener at Ohio St., but they are capable of winning the rest of their games down the stretch. They get to host USC, which looks like the key matchup in the Pac 10. They also have a veteran senior QB, which is usually the right formula for winning the Pac 10.
10. USC - The Trojans were the strongest team in the country down the stretch last year that did not play in the national title game, as they wiped out UCLA, Notre Dame and Iowa by a combined 134-51 margin. They do lose 10 starters including QB Carson Palmer, but I definitely took notice that two of my 7 sets of power ratings have them the #1-rated team in the NCAA! Just like last year they have a killer schedule with trips to Notre Dame, Auburn, Arizona St. and Washington.
11. LSU - Everyone is looking for this year’s Ohio St., and just like I mentioned in the Pitt writeup, this could be one of the contenders. None of my 7 sets of Power Ratings list the Tigers in the Top 10, but two have them going a perfect 12-0. Their toughest road trips are to Alabama and Mississippi, but both of those are winnable. They only face the 47th-toughest schedule and most of their toughest games are at home in Death Valley.
12. Nebraska - Last year was a record-breaking year, but not the kind of records that NU wanted. Their streak of being ranked in the Top 25 for 348 weeks, as well as their streak of 33 years of 9-or-more wins, both went by the wayside. I think Jamaal Lord will do a fine job guiding a much more potent NU offense. The Blackshirt defense should regain its swagger. Solich gets off the hot seat as NU returns to the top.
13. Florida St. - If not for last year, I definitely would have ranked FSU in the Top 10 and rated them a major national title contender. As I write the magazine, there is an ongoing NCAA investigation. Some players may be suspended in the next few months. Last year I thought they would return to the top but they finished just 9-5. I think Chris Rix will do a fine job. This team does have my #5-rated offense and #8-rated defense. If they regain their swagger, they could go undefeated, even with road trips to Florida and Notre Dame.
14. Kansas St. - The Wildcats were clearly one of the best teams in the NCAA down the stretch last year. For the season they outscored their foes by an average of 44.8-11.8!!!! QB Ell Roberson is a Heisman candidate and Snyder always relies on JUCO’s, so having 12 starters back is a lot for his team. KSU ranks in my Top 15 on both sides of the ball and needs to win at Texas and Nebraska to vault into national title contention. They will be favored in their other 11 games.
15. Auburn - The Tigers rank in my Top 10 in terms of talent this year, with the best set of RBs in the land. They have my #8 offense with a veteran QB, and a tough “D” led by my #4 set of linebackers. The road team dominates in the series with Georgia, so playing, “Between the Hedges” may not turn out to be that bad. They also have road trips to LSU and Arkansas lurking.
16. NC State - The Wolfpack had a nice finish last year whipping Florida St. and Notre Dame by a combined 45-13 in the last 2 games. QB Philip Rivers leads my #10 offense and the defense looks solid. They have road trips to Ohio St. and Florida St., but have shown they can knock off the big boys.
17. Georgia - The Bulldogs lost a lot of talent from last year’s #3-ranked team, but are still loaded. They do have a tough schedule with LSU and Tennessee on the road, along with their yearly trip to Jacksonville to face Richt’s last remaining stumbling block (the Gators). Still, the Dawgs should have another big year.
18. Maryland - The Terps have the talent (#12 overall) and the schedule (#61) to make some noise. They should be favored in 10-of-12 games and need a road win vs. Florida St. or NC St. to move up. Fear the Turtle.
19. Notre Dame - The Irish have my #4-rated defense, and as they showed last year, they can play with anyone under Willingham. They have to play Michigan, Purdue and Pitt all on the road, but should be strong overall.
20. Purdue - The Boilermakers led the Big 10 in offense and defense, but were just 6-6 during the regular season due to turnovers. This year they are loaded and have the talent to win the Big 10, but must face Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio St. all on the road.
21. Wisconsin - The Badgers have their best team in 4 years and a schedule to challenge for the Big 10 title. They have a soft non-conference slate, avoid Michigan and host Ohio St. Alvarez knows a thing or two (or three) about getting to and winning Rose Bowls (he has won 3).
22. Mississippi - Eli Manning guides the best Rebel edition in over a decade. They have 5 road games this year and will be favored in 3 of them, so it could be a big year if they take care of business at home.
23. Arkansas - The Razorbacks ended up in the SEC title game as I projected last year. They could repeat with my #10-rated defense, which includes an excellent set of DBs. They do have 4 tough road games this year to Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU, but could surprise yet again.
24. Penn St. - The Lions may suffer from Draft Day Party Hangover, and may get fewer friendly bounces after being +14 last year in turnovers. They still have plenty of talent, but topping last year’s 9-3 regular season will be tough.
25. TCU - The Frogs were the best team in CUSA last year and even took home the Liberty Bowl trophy. They have a top-notch defense and if QB Tye Gunn stays healthy, the offense could help them to a 2nd straight CUSA title.
26. Hawaii - The Warriors are only my #52 team in terms of talent, but play in the WAC and will rack up a lot of wins. They are assured of at least a berth in the Hawaii Bowl if eligible.
27. Virginia - Al Groh did a tremendous job with a very young team last year. This year those very talented players have experience. They add a lot more VHTs and will be an ACC contender.
28. UCLA - The Bruins do have a rookie head coach, but he inherits a talented team that was hurt by injuries last year. They do have 4 very tough road games vs. Colorado, Oklahoma, Washington St. and USC, but they will do fine.
29. Colorado St. - Sonny Lubick has done a tremendous job here and I rate his squad as my favorite to get to yet another Liberty Bowl. QB Bradlee Van Pelt should lead a potent offense.
30. Boise St. - Ryan Dinwiddie was sensational when healthy last year. This team is strong year-in and year-out. Despite just 3 starters returning on offense, they will be potent. The “D” has 7 starters returning.
31. Oregon St. - Despite the coaching change, OSU has QB Anderson and RB Jackson among 9 starters returning on offense. Their defense can be nasty and looks solid again.
32. Florida - I have NEVER picked the Gators anywhere near this low in the rankings, but they have a tough schedule with road trips to Miami, LSU, Arkansas, S. Carolina and Georgia in Jacksonville. They also face Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida St. at home in a rebuilding year.
33. Iowa - What a great year for the Hawkeyes last year! This year they must replace 11 starters including QB Brad Banks and 5 players who were NFL draft selections. Overall, they are still a solid team even with the losses.
34. Arizona St. - Andrew Walter had a great year despite not starting until the 5th game and having little time to throw. He has a stronger O-Line in front of him this year. ASU takes another step forward.
35. Oklahoma St. - The Cowboys used 2001’s upset of Oklahoma to give them confidence for 2002. They not only upset the Sooners once again, but also won their bowl game. QB Fields and WR Woods give them an explosive offense, and the defense is solid.
36. Minnesota - Once again the Gophers should get off to a great start thanks to a creampuff non-conference schedule. This year they are a little bigger up front on defense and will have a solid offense that continues to make strides in Big 10 play.
37. Fresno St. - The Bulldogs now have an experienced QB and welcome back WR Berrian, who missed last year with an injury. They also have some big boys on the schedule and showed in 2001 that they are capable of knocking off BCS-caliber teams.
38. Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles used to rule in CUSA play, but have not done so for the last 3 years. This year they could return to the top with my #20-rated defense. The offense should be improved with a more veteran signal caller.
39. Missouri - The Tigers have exciting QB Brad Smith and have come close the last few years. Their third year with Gary Pinkel should be their breakthrough year.
40. Air Force - This could be one of Fisher DeBerry’s most experienced and hence, best teams yet. QB Harridge should have a fine senior season, and the defense is much stronger.
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