What every gambler needs to know !

[MemphisMafia]

Just sharing a site that gets into the nuts and bolts of this thing of ours and gives a great deal of insight as to how a bookie works us over .

http://papers.nber.org/tmp/87140-w9422.pdf

Give it a spin , he a nearly famous economist and be sure to check the bottom out if you get bored !

Interesting items ;

Home team favorites :
56.1 % bet them ...... they win 49.1 %

Home team dogs :
31.8 % bet them ...... they win 57.7 % [ pay attention ]

Visiting team dogs :
43.9 % bet them .... they win 50.4 %

Visiting team fav. :
68.2 % bet them .... they win 47.8 % [ pay attention ]

Hope that someone gathers a bit from it ????

G.L. & G.B.

***MMM***

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N.F.L. info

[MemphisMafia]

Speaking of the N.F.L.

We are going to take a long look at the teams we see as A.T.S. killers this season. These are the teams we project as the ones to give some value , before the books catch-up to them as the season progresses and make thier adjustments accordingly . This has a great deal to do with strength of thier Division , Schedule , and off-season adjustments also . They are in random order and each one will show thier merits as they get a hitch in thier giddy-up.

Indianapolis :

Lot of " ifs " here and I think most of them will come through in the clutch , Edgerin James [ surgery ] , Defense [ Tony Dungy ] , and bolster thier Linebacking core.

Denver :

Feeling here is Jake " the snake " Plummer will make a difference in a veteran club with great running backs [ ball control ]

San Francisco :

The striking power of this offense is without question , If the defense comes around they will not reflect thier 0-8 ATS at the close of last season .

Washington :

Sure they ended thier season below the mendoza line , but they also accomplished something [ very quietly ] that the Tampa Bay club did before thier winning march , that being while they where the "only" team to improve statistically both on offense & defense and regress both SU & ATS [ fear the Hogs ]

Cincinnati :

Sure your gonna say " what " , but with the changes being made and the fact that previous history shows they need tons of points [ 4-12 ATS ] [ 2-14 SU ] we think the books are going to need a handfull of games to make the right adjustments here.

Other Sneekers :

Miami : the best club , not to make the playoffs
Pittsburgh : secondary got help
Dallas : Tuna [ need I say more ]
St. Louis : - 19 turnovers wont happen again [ league worst ]
New England : a bruising early season schedule [ vs. 8 of 9 .500 or better clubs ] will put them in a value teams situation late season.

As always brought to you from the Leaper Colony from the sunny shores of Ragtown !

G.L. & G.B.

***MMM***

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[MemphisMafia]

Coming Soon !

The top ten teams ATS in college football this season ***


***MMM***

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[MemphisMafia]

College Football Sleepers [ATS]

As promised , we will toss a few good teams vs. the spread this year. These are in random order , so take your pick.

Duke
Memphis
BYU
Florida St.
Michigan St.
Akron
Arkansas
Nebraska
Purdue

We will track these teams this year and see if we where at least close in our estimations .

***MMM***

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[MemphisMafia]

Next [ N.F.L. trends ]

If you can remember some of these trends they will help your selections in the coming season , so put them in your data-base and enjoy !

New England is 0-16-2 ATS in thier 2nd. away game of the season.

Tampa Bay is 15-1-1 ATS at home when "not " favored by 4 or more.

Baltimore is 27-1-1 ATS in road wins vs. a opponent coming off a win.

Green Bay is 15-1-1 ATS at home from game 12 on out vs. a opponent coming off a win.

N.Y. Jets .... Philadelphia ..... Dallas , win my award for the toughest schedule this year [ Baltimore faces 10 teams that played .500 or better ball from the 02 to 03 season ] [ Indianapolis will play all thier x-division mates from the AFC East and face 11 clubs that batted .500 or better last year ] [ K.C. has my 25th easiest road to hoe ? watch-out here ] [ Green Bay wins my 3rd. easiest and after making the playoffs is this how the N.F.L. looks at parity ? ]

In closing I leave you with this info :

Dogs of 7.5 or more in the preseason are always good value , Since 1980 any preseason dog of 7.5 or more is 33-16 ATS [ 67.3% ] , and if thier foe is off a win they are 21-6 ATS [ 77.7% ] and even better if they are off a win and thier foe is off a win they are 9-1 ATS [ 90.0% ]

Also :

If 2 running-backs are battling for a final spot in the final preseason game , I usually go with the under and Im sure you can understand why ? [ because they will run far more than usual to give them a final look ] and that always equals a low scoring affair !



***MMM***

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[MemphisMafia]

Golf Wager

We will be playing Fred Couples +130 vs. Darren Clarke

***MMM***

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[GoldVike]

M & M

I'm not a golf fan but I'm playing that one now!
Great info here too you're pumping out...read and remember I always say!! BEST OF LUCK AND thanks for the picks! Goldv

[MemphisMafia]

G.V.

That golf pick was from a well respected capper [ E. Turner ] when it comes to golf , hes one of the best around , batting around 80 % , hope it pans for us ?

I follow him on his golf shots and have done quite well , as I must admit with waynes Nascar shots also [ I have too send him a Thank You card someday ].

Keep up your great humor and picks , they help me smile in a sometimes dreary world !

***MMM***

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[MemphisMafia]

COMING SOON

Obscure hidden trends in college football


G.L.

***MMM***

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