December pretenders

[frankb03]

In the NFL, December separates the contenders from the pretenders.

Favorites 1 game under .500 or 4 or less games over .500 vs losing teams cover less than 40% of their games. Road favorites less than 38% Small favorites of -4 or less do extremely poor, 32.3% ATS.

Last year was an aberration. Favorites went 12-3 last year. Prior to last year 1992 was the last year these favorites had a winning ATS record.

We often hear the phrase "must win". I've often said there's a difference between favorites winning and covering. These favorites win SU 63.6%

[KR-V3]

thanks for the info frank, the hard part is trusting the system!! first instinct is to go w/ the favorite!! i'll keep an extra eye out for your calls. thanks again!

[frankb03]

thanks for the info frank, the hard part is trusting the system!! first instinct is to go w/ the favorite!! i'll keep an extra eye out for your calls. thanks again!

Over the final weeks watch how often we hear "must win" then watch how often these teams don't cover let alone lose.

[bwade210]

Indeed, good write up!

[griffey_mojo]

Over the final weeks watch how often we hear "must win" then watch how often these teams don't cover let alone lose.

Bingo!!!!

I consider myselft still green at this and must win teams have cost me lots of cash over the years.

[Kaptain]

Thanks Frank----Teams that are in the "Must Win" position got there by losing games......

Cause the "Must Win". adds no credence to "will win".....

I've for a long time now, said, they must win, but will they.........I think teams in a MUst win position, are there cause of playing poor ball, thus I like to go against em..kapt

[drugstuntman]

very interesting...thanks frank

[GOLDENGREEK]

Intresting stuff frank--thank you

[vinnyvegas]

Frank, looks like Packers & Eagles this weekend. Public already pounding Jets & Panthers.

[Udog]

Thank you, Frank!! I intend to use this info!
And, great point by Kapt. about teams being in "must win" situations because they've been playing poorly!

[BigMike]

USC "must win" this weekend to play for the national championship. Laying 13 to UCLA on the road.

[frankb03]

Week 14 Pretenders

Seahawks
Bengals
Jets
Falcons
Eagle

Teams facing an opponent they've already beaten this season cover less than 36% of their games.

Seahawks
Jets
Falcons
Eagle

[thaikarate1]

Seahawks
Bengals
Jets
Falcons
Eagle

Teams facing an opponent they've already beaten this season cover less than 36% of their games.

Seahawks
Jets
Falcons
Eagle

Is the Chargers in this group? They beat Denver 3 weeks ago.

[SustainDan]

no because chargers are far from pretenders

[MB17]

Depending on when people got Philly, the pretenders either went 2-2-1, 3-2, or 2-3.