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TP's NCAA, 12/2

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  • TP's NCAA, 12/2

    Really disappointing weekend last week, going 4-3, but with the three losses being the larger plays. Ended up losing a little over 5 units, but as the Griswold “Reflections” thread mentioned, when you have a week like that you can always learn something.

    Just one play this week so far, though I am going to play Arkansas as well (obviously hoping to get +3), and possibly one more.

    NCAA Plays (62-45-4, +23.73)
    2* Florida International +14 (-110)
    This might seem like an odd game to pick off the card, and I agree, it's probably the least appealing game to watch, but that doesn't mean there isn't value in it. Here we have a Troy team that should come a little flat off clinching only its second bowl berth in school history. Not only did the Trojans win at Middle Tennessee to win the Sun Belt, they did it in dramatic fashion, scoring two touchdowns in the final three minutes in a 21-20 victory. This game now means very little to them, as they are locked in to the New Orleans Bowl, and I really expect a flat effort from Troy.
    Troy has been a mediocre offensive team all year, and the total is only 38.5, which means we should see another low scoring game. I think Troy really could face a spirited FIU team which has recently had several players reinstated from the Miami brawl earlier this season. This will be their last home game, and FIU has actually won its last home game four years in a row.
    Records:

    NCAA Hoops (38-34-2, +4.59*)
    NFL Sides (34-25, +12.15*)
    NFL Totals (18-14-1, +8.23*)
    NCAA Foots Plays (65-48-4, +21.47*)
    NBA Plays (4-1-0, +5.92*)

  • #2
    Best of luck Paper!

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    • #3
      Going small with five plays.
      NCAA Plays (62-46-4, +21.63)

      As posted above:
      2* Florida International +14 (-110)
      I like this play pretty well at +14, but kind of lukewarm on it at the current number of +10.5/11. It’s quite a lot to ask of a team with little to no offense to win by three scores, but to win by 11 is a lot more reasonable.

      Other plays:
      2* Arkansas +2.5 (+101)
      Well, I could get +3 at -115 in this game, but buying points is a losing proposition in most NCAA games, and I’m especially not going to in one where the favorite has a kicker as bad as Chris Hetland.
      I just think Arkansas is the clearly better team in this game. No one seems to have caught on, but the Florida offense just isn’t very good. Everyone acts like they have a potent offense, but they didn’t score 30 points in an SEC game all season. They’ve gotten bailed out by their defense and special teams week after week. Arkansas won’t let either happen, and now UF’s most explosive player, Percy Harvin, is out.
      Now, Arkansas has a one-dimensional offense, which I hate betting on. Still, if you can run for over 300 yards on LSU, you can do so against anybody. Dick was at his absolute worst last week, and the Hogs still scored 25 on arguably the best defense in the nation. If he can give them anything, Arkansas will win this one convincingly. If not, Arkansas still has the Wildcat formation they have been running so successfully. I don’t know if any defense is fast enough and disciplined enough to contain that combination of McFadden at QB, Jones at SE/RB, and Monk playing receiver.

      2* Hawaii -8 (-108)
      A lot has been said about the reasons to play Hawaii in this game, and I pretty much agree with all of it. Oregon State is off the rivalry win, they are already locked into a bowl game, and Mike Riley is an awful coach, who certainly won’t have them ready.
      On the other hand, Hawaii will be anxious to prove the scoreboard was misleading last week, as they still averaged 12 yards a play and only punted once. They outgained Purdue by nearly 200 yards, but turnovers blew the cover. Brennan is primed to break into the history books, and he should do it against a soft pass defense. Matt Moore of OSU has his moments, but he is nowhere near as consistent. Oregon State’s best player is RB Bernard, but no one runs the ball against Hawaii.

      1* UCLA +12 (-110)
      Only a 1 unit play because I was too stupid to play +14 when it was available Sunday night. If the line would have gone above that, I would have made it a little bigger play. I thought it would go higher because USC has regained status as one of the top public teams, and the public is still all over USC, but the line is dropping. Interesting.
      I really believe UCLA is capable of winning this game. I’m glad Karl Dorrell made the decision to continue to start Cowen, as he is as good as Olsen anyway, and not hurt. UCLA has playmakers - I really like Markey - not to the extent USC does, but pretty solid.
      The Bruins are playing pretty well, though it has slipped under the radar a little bit. The defense is pretty strong, as good as any UCLA defense I can remember. Dorrell isn’t a great coach, but his staff game planned very well for Notre Dame, taking them to the wire, and I think that is a fair comparison to this game. Actually UCLA has been a pretty solid underdog all season, and I think they can keep this one close.

      1* Nebraska Team Total Under 20.5 (-108)
      Obviously a strong lean to OU -3/3.5 and a strong lean to under 45.
      Game-time temperature is expected to be around 20 degrees, and the Oklahoma defense is playing as well as any in the nation right now. The strength of both teams is running the ball - though both QBs have been pretty good - and there shouldn’t be too many big passing plays in this game because of the weather.

      Best of luck everyone.
      Records:

      NCAA Hoops (38-34-2, +4.59*)
      NFL Sides (34-25, +12.15*)
      NFL Totals (18-14-1, +8.23*)
      NCAA Foots Plays (65-48-4, +21.47*)
      NBA Plays (4-1-0, +5.92*)

      Comment


      • #4
        Also making my customary $10 bet on Army against Navy, even though they get their ass beat every year.
        Records:

        NCAA Hoops (38-34-2, +4.59*)
        NFL Sides (34-25, +12.15*)
        NFL Totals (18-14-1, +8.23*)
        NCAA Foots Plays (65-48-4, +21.47*)
        NBA Plays (4-1-0, +5.92*)

        Comment


        • #5
          GL Paper, on UCLA as well, public all over USC, it should be a closer game than most think. gl2u

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          • #6
            Goodluck today TP!!!!!!!!!!!
            "Sometimes it's not what you play, but what you don't play."

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            • #7
              TP,
              I do wish you luck with FIU and the others...FIU makes me nervous they have only scored 10 pts since the fight at UM (4 games) probably as a result of the suspensions and resignation by Strock...and they gave up 31 to FAU last week a team that scored over 21 only twice this year and one of those was against a D2 team.

              BOL to you
              Remember the three R's:
              Respect for self; Respect for others; and Responsibility for all your actions.

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              • #8
                Good Luck TP ... Love the write ups

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                • #9
                  Good luck, TP!

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                  • #10
                    Good luck TP.
                    Nice work this year inn CFB!
                    2006/07 Posted Plays:
                    06 .....NFL: .....23 - 13 = (+ 8.7 Units)
                    06/07 NCAABB: 15 - 16 = (-2.6 Units)
                    06/07 NBA:.......14 - 9 = (+ 4.1 Units)
                    tyvm

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Good luck again Paper! Loving the under in the OU/Neb game as well. Hope my Sooners can take out the shuckers

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                      • #12
                        GL today TP

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                        • #13
                          gl to ya TP----gutsy call on FIU----I'm on the other side---best to ya----kapt


                          Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

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