An Observation

[swghost]

I dont know sports, but I do know money management. As long as you have enough to keep swinging away, then it should not upset you. If the loses are too much, lower your bet size. Shit happens. Obsessing about things out of your control is a sure road to frustration. But you can control your moolah. Frank is right, but if you want to argue for your limitations and frustrations, you can have them.

[MRhotPICKS]

I just can not stand the fact when it is obvious a team does not show up for a game... I can understand playing down to your competition, but completey not showing up is awful.

What if we did not show up at work for an important meeting... they get an acception and we would get fired... thats the only thing that pisses me off... it just does not seem like everyone always gives maximum effort when they should... they do get to play a game for a living... its an honor and a privelage... not a right... they need to remember that and go out and put forth an effort worthy of their position.

[BettorsChat]

HEY FRANK, WTF DO YOU KNOW ABOUT BETTING?!!!!

Just kidding. I was one who was pissed off royally over that Giants game. Was only a regular play for me. But it ruined my day. Sorry if I pissed off anyone (which I usually do).

Agree on the Giants game up 21-0 going into 4th qtr and give up 24 pts to fucking lose outright. What a fucking a joke.

[frankb03]

I just can not stand the fact when it is obvious a team does not show up for a game

It's a phenomenon that's occurred since the beginning of sports. Humans can't perform at peak level each and every game. NFL football is played by the best 700 players (11 offensive and 11 defensive with 32 teams) in the world at their sport. At the NFL level the talent from the best player to the 700th player is very small.

Since I was a little boy in the 60s I've heard the saying "on any given Sunday".

[KazDog]

I just posted this in the Urgent thread and thought I'd share it here as well....Maybe some will rethink how they bet Sundays. Of course, each week is different......

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I'm NOT trying to be a smartass here, so don't jump all over me for this. I hate the NFL as much as anyone and can't seem to win on a consistent basis.

But if you look at all the games this week, they really held to form and we probably just over-thought too many of these games.

Every home team won except for Detroit, Atlanta and Cleveland. They may not have all covered, but they won and that's pretty consistent.

Detroit lost because they aren't that good and there was a Harrington revenge factor.

Why anyone thought Cleveland was going to win is beyond me, of course hind site is 20/20. That's easy to say now.

And New Orlean's is having an inspired year and Atlanta is not. Vick is looking worse every week......

Out of the 12 home teams that won, 10 covered the spread. Only 2 did not, the Rams and Chargers. Rams missed by one point. I'm just trying to give a little food for thought this morning......

After looking at the games this week, I'm going to change my betting strategies a little. Now watch the road team cover a majority next week and you'll see me crying like a little girl....ha ha

KAZ

[Gookis]

thats why hockey is great sport....the least paid atheletes who actually give a fuck.... besides-most of them can play to 7-11 handicap.....my kind of guys who drink some beer!

Plus nobody watches it, so no one gets pissed off by wins or loses!

[frankb03]

I hate the NFL as much as anyone and can't seem to win on a consistent basis.

Kaz, the NFL shouldn't be tough to beat.

First, with sportsbook such as Pinny, a NFL bettor has to win less than 51% of their bets to win.

I think most bettors lose playing the NFL because:

1. Money management

2. Media and public perception. They over-hype teams when they are playing well and are too critical when teams slump. Bettors listen/read the opinions of sport writers and shows like ESPN. Of which, most are clueless. Very few have played the game. Even the so called ex-NFL experts are wrong more than they are right when picking winners let alone vs the spread.

3. ATS vs SU. Too many bettors confuse the two. There's a huge difference between a team winning a game and covering a game. SU winning favorites don't cover the spread in 26% of the games, more than 1 in 4. If the spread is more than 7 they don't cover in 42% of the games they win.

4. The public has a love affair with favorites. There's a huge advantage playing dogs in the NFL. Since 1989 dogs have covered 51.2% of all games. Home dogs have done better at 52.5%

The best advice for a NFL bettor is look for dogs. Pass on favorites. Especially high priced favorites. No experienced blackjack player would hit on 14 with the dealer showing a 6. Why? Because the player has the edge. Why do football bettors ignore the edge given to them by the 'house'?

[KazDog]

I agree Frank....There were some really good opportunities missed this past weekend with home dogs. Buffalo, Wash, and Tenn....Although home favorites did pretty well too....